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DIVULOUE SODS LALOI SE LACCES AL1NFORMATION

11 or ancesa PROTECThDA

Audience: Fran: line officers: lOs and Ms Issued: NOV 2015

Enforcement and Intelhgence Priority National Security Expiry NOV2016

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Highlights

1. In July 2014, Libyas deteriorating security environment Ibreed Canada to shut down its diplomatic
operations in Tripoli and move its entire consular contingent to the Canadian Embassy in Tunisia.
With a variety of actors, internal and external, vying to control Libya and its vast oil resources, the
situation in the country is as complex and volatile as any in the Middle East. A powerful accelerant
that could convert this unstable situation into an explosive problem for the entire region would be
ISILs recent takeover of Sirte, an oil-rich city situated a few hundred miles from Europes coastline.
Sines position along the Mediterranean shoreline has placed ISIL in a strategic position to potentially I

launch attacks into Europe. (U)

2. Open source analysis indicates that that the capture of Sine would render ISIL a far more formidable
force. ISIL is flourishing in Libya and luring recruits and fighters from various regions. It may
eventually draw individuals from Canada or Canadians currently in Libya to join the conflict there.
The potential for any of these Canadians to return to Canada is an inherent security risk and requires
CBSA scrutiny of Canadians traveling to and from Libya as potential High Risk Travelers (HRTs).
(U)

3. The CBSAs High Risk Travelers Team (l-1RTT) collaborates in a whole-of-government approach in
monitoring the movements of potential HR1s. (U)

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Background

4. In late July 2014, after Foreign Affairs officials cited an

unpredictable security environment, Canada shut down
its diplomatic operations in Tripoli and moved its entire
consular contingent to the Canadian Embassy in Tunisia.
In August, radical Islamist allies of Ansar al-Shads
(AAS) stormed inpoli, the nations capital, and forced
the official government to flee to Tobruk, leading to a
further collapse in order.
2 Now, nearly four years after the
death of Dictator Muamrnar Gadhafi, Libya is in a state of
collapse and engulfed by violence. (U)

5. In the midst of this chaos, ISIL officially made its presence known in eastern Libya in late
2014 by taking over the town of Derna
, promptly turning it into a stronghold. However, in
3
June 2015, the group was ousted from Derna in what some thought might be an indication of
the groups limited capability to maintain real estate in Libya.
4 However, in the same month,
ISIL took control of Sirte, a more centrally located and much more strategic location for the
group. The Sirte basin has the largest oil reserves in Africa while Sirte is perfectly located for
launching strikes against Europe. Soon aflcr the takeover, Sirte was declared ISILs capital
in the Libyan province of its caliphate.
. (U)
5

Analysis

Securing Sinefor its Oil

6. Bcfhrethc battles for Derna 5 orSixteoccur

I SIL red
telegraphed somewhat its intentions by conducting
numerous attacks on Libyas oil sector facilities These
attacks followed a pattern where the group did not take
over the installations but simply caused destruction ard
then left Consequently, in March, Libyas state-run oil
corporation declared 11 oil fields non-operational after
they had been attacked by suspected ISIL milItants.
6 (see
) Observers have posited that ISIL was
1
footnote
strategically attacking these facilities as a way to deny
resources to its rivals and
5 through thIs, allow itself to
FIgure 1 Shie OH Storage Tank on Fire
mike same month, a30-ycarjoirn 1 with Canadas Suacor-flinnerly Petro-Canada---in Ohm] was.aUcked
(by presumed ISIS militants) which r tad lathe4leaths of multiple guards

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 RELEASED UNDER ThE ACCESS TO INFORMAflON ACT
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_.7 (Li)

7. ISJLs move into Sifte appears to have been the end game for these kinds of attacks. Sirte not
only has the majority of Libyas oil, it is also located near the twe largest crude export
fhcihties In Libya (Es Sader and R.as Lanuf) Oil industry sources in the region have been
warning clients that these ports have been under attack from ISIL for most of 20158, making
it evident that the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf export facilities feature prominently in IS ILs
immediate designs If ISIL were to control the majority of Sirte
s oil resources and gains
5
access to terminals whereby to ship and potentially profit fiom those resourcea, this would be
another important gain for theterrorist group. (U)

8 ISiLisnos ngertoscllmgcrudeoaltoblaekniazketcustoiners Pmrnthe timert seized oil

fields in Iraq and Syria (ISIL reportedly controls 60% of Syrian oil
) it has sold oil to
9
shadowy parties at knockdown prices in a practice that spans across [the] entire
caliphate As ofmid-July 2014, this business was fetching $lmilhon a day for ISIS
0
(U)

9. Currently United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) concerns, regarding smuggling out
of LIbya, center on the migrant crisis and how EU slates may engage in enforcement actions
Rgainst migrant smugglers coming off the Libyan coast. However, a former Egyptian army
officer has called on European nations to impose a siege on the Libyan coast to deny ISIL
control over oil sales.kU)

10. Some analysts are prediclin a destabilization of the Arab world, should ISIS establish
significant control in Libya.
4 Concumngly, Ubyas neighbor to the West Algeria, has
staled the situation in Sirte 5 a possible threat to the entire region.
5 While ISIL clearly
doesnotbavccontroloverallofLlbya,itscontrolofSirtelssignificantandposesatbreatto
the stability that remains in the region. (t)

11 ISJL has consolidated its control over Sine, not only because ofthe presence of oil, but
because Sine Is also a city that has a further developedInfrastructure than most places in the
country The May Ainit Imelligence and Terrorism information Cemer reports that Sine was
the birthplace of Mnammar Gadhafi and, therefore, became the site of considerable
development work during ins ride Many public buildings and government institutions were
built there, which now provide ISIL i4th eztcrzrne governmental infrastructure 77
clearly renders Sirte ideal, not only as a capital for the province out also as a headquarters
for the terrorist group. (U)

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12. Once ISIL accomplished its takeover of Sirte, the group acquired control of the citys TV and
radio stations, its hospital, its university and a former internal security building as a
conzmand centre
17 With these assets, 15th has promoted Side through its propaganda as a
prosperous city in a bid to draw new recruit 15 As appears to be its custom, ISIL uses its
gains synergistically with its propapda. Meir Ainit points out that Side also provides ISIS
with a foothold in central Libya the: significance of which, The Soufan Grotip (TSG)
proclaims, is to place ISIL in a powerful position to expand west towards Tripoli or east
towards Bengazi, not to mention what the British Daily &press has proclaimed was a
location within touching distance of Europe
(U)
2

Pkmsfar ath agafrzrt Europe

13. It may be that ISILs capture of Sine and possible exportation of oilwiththe attention his
already earning the group from regional and Western powerswill prevent the group from
mounting overt incursions Into Europe from the Libyan shore However, this does not mean
that the intent or plmning isnt there According to the British countcr.extremism think tank,
Quziliam Foundation, a prominent member of ISIL (claiming to be in Libya) posted a short
essay online in January entitled Libya The Strategic Galewayfar the Islamic Slate that
promoted the view that Europe could be easily accessed through Libya. (Li)

21 of this Arabic document, the writer says [Libya] has a

14. In Quilliams English translation
long coast and looks upon the Southern crusader states) which can be reached with ease by
even a rudimentary boat.,. [If illegal migration] was even partially exploited and developed
22 Quillimn assesses
strategically, pandemonium could be wrought in the southern Europe
lhat:this untranslated Arabic document was not intended for Western readers but to convince
other Islamists to join ISIL in Libya. (U)

ii In 2014, over 170,000 migrants Italy (mostly from boats coming out of Libya and
Turkey) with nearly 100,000 not having registered with Italian authorities and many having
moved on to other E U states Figures
to reach u
forsunilarmovementsto
Italy zn 2015 are expected
000 While ISIS does riot specifically have to funnel its operatives to Europe
,
200
from Libyas coast, there is no question that migrants to Europe are coming
thousands.
there by the from
(U)

16, In September 2015, a British Daily Mail investigation reported that one of their reporters bad
purchased the forged passport ofa Synai man who
Jd been killed in the Syrian conflict
from the same organization that ISIL militants reportedly used to purchase documents to
25 The investigation recently revealed that the
enter Europe, hidden amongst refugees
passport of Ahrnnd A1mohammadoae of the attackers at Stade dc Prance in the Paris attacks

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 RELEASED UNDER ThE ACCESS TO INFORMATION ACT
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was a forged Syrian passport identical to the passport the Daily Mail reporter had
purchased. The attacker reportedly entered Europe as a refugee through Grcece (U)

17. A former bead of Austrian countcr4ermrism, Gert IL Poll, speaking on the movement of
militants with migrants from Libya to Europe, says that European security agencies and
intelligence services are unprepared for the security implications of this migrant crisis?
7
Similarly, James Clapper, the chiefU.S. intelligence official has said that the U.S. has a
huge concern about ISILs ability to infiltrate Europe or the U.S. by exploiting the migrant
5 Recent reporting indicates that the U.S. is planning to set up drone bases along the
crisis?
Libyan border to bali ISILs expansion in the region? (U)

impact on the Canada Border Services Agency

18.

The CBSAs High RIsk Travelers Team collaborates in a whole-of government

approach in monitoring the movements of potential HRTs. (PA)

19.

20. CBSA concerns relating to the security situation in Libya also revolve around admissibility F
screening for nationals attempting to come to Canada as a result ofthe deteriorating
environment The CBSA must screen visitors having potential links or association with terror
groups or other armed groups involved in the civil conflict there. The CBSA has to screen
applications from visitors for possible links to war crimes or crimes against humanity while
fighting in Libya, including potential members of Ohaddafi-era security apparatus who may
be guilty of human rights offences while working for the regime. (PA)

Prepared by: C.B., High Risk Travelers Team, Intelligence Operations and Analysis Division

Contact: For more Information, please contact the 11mb Risk Travelers Team by email at

Canad
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1
T he Taroflto Stir. (2014, July29). Canada shuts diplomatic operations in Libya, pulls staff(U)
TheTetegraph (2014, September 20) How Qatar isfiindmg the Rise ofIslunust Extremists (U)
2
The Washmton Times (2014, November18) Islamic State takes Libyan Qty, lOOK under tenor gniu a control as chaos
(U)
Reuters (2015 July 24) Expulawnfrom Denw Bastion may show imntsjbe Islamic State in Libya (U)
4
Daily Express. (2015, August15). Black Flags on Europes doorstep: InsidE iSISs new capital Sine on Libyas Coast (U)
5
The Toronto Star. (2015, March 05). LIbya declares ii oilfields shut after altacks (U)
Time. (2015, March 16). ISiS Allies Tiy to Cut offLibyas Oil Revenue (U)
The Maritime ExecutIve. (2015, August17). Lifrya Needs Weapons To Deftrid its Oil (U)
5
Al Arabiya news (2014, July 14) Sales of black market oil surge in the Middle East (U)
9

Ibid.
12 Prem. (2015, September16). Smuggler vessels offLibya would be eeiudwsder tIN proposal (U)
.AssocId
RT. (2015, April I). AM ISISsjbothold in Libya stay a fransitstahonorexprnd? (U)
1
Spiegel Online. (2014, November18). The Caliphates Colonies: llamic StaWa Gradual Expansion into North Africa (U)
The Sufan Group. (2015, August19). The islamic States New Mediterranean Capital (U)
JI,t Ainit. (2015, August19). Spothgbtan Global Jibath the globaljihad in other countries (U)
Daily Express (2015, August15) Black Flags on Europes doorstep Inside ISISs new capital Sirte on Libyas Coast (U)
is ibid.
Mets Arust. (2015, August19) Spothght on Global jzhavL the global fihad mother countries (U)
is Daily Express (2015, August15) Black Flags on Europes doorstep Inside ISISs new capital Sirte on Libyas Coast (U)
Quilliam Foundation. (2015, February). Lit: the Strategic Gatewayfor the Islamic State (U)
ii fljj
Dane corn (2015 June11) Italy a migration czar We aint slop people going to northern Europe (U)
24fld
Z Daily MaiL (2015, September12) Passport to Terror MadOnlme reporter buys Syrian papers being sold to ISISfighters
sneaking into Lap hiddin among refugees (U)
Daily Mail. (2015, November16). Passport to lerrorMrdlOnline repo boughtan IDEN7ICAL Syrian passport that
ISIS bomber used to sneak into Europe bcfrr Paris attacks (U)
Breltbart. (2015, September24 Former bitelligence chief seeurityse,vls have lost track ofterrorists in Europe (U)
The Washin onTimes. (2015, September 09) James Claer: Islamic State could infiltrate US., West through migrants
25
fleeingfrom Syr (U)
Deutache Wdlle, (2015,July 14) Libya iSforecount in Nrth Africa (tO

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