1.

Case for Support (Maximum of Three Sides of A4)

1.1 Research Problem

The Chure region (also called Siwaliks) raises steeply from the Terai plains along the whole of its northern
border. Chure and Bhavar both are serving as the water reserve for Terai region (the grain-basket of Nepal),
are critical for both national economy and integrity. In many parts of Chure region, indigenous people,
disaster victims and poverty enforced migrants were settled without land ownership, and their livelihood
primarily depend on nearby forest and shifting cultivation (HELVETAS, 2014). As the result, deforestation,
overgrazing and poorly maintained of marginal lands are occurred as the main cause of the degrading of
Chure region along with more fragile sloppy land.
During the winter and summer (dry) season, most of the surface water irrigation sources are dry up and the
groundwater (GW) is only a main resource for overcome the burning situation. Further, long drought and
poor winter rainfall also increase trend of GW utilization for irrigation in Terai region (Rai, 2013). Farmers
used to excavate shallow tubewell but nowadays they are excavating deeper in search of year-round water
supply that is leading to increase cost of pumping. There are many local reporting on drying of the surface-
level rivulets, bore-holes and dug-wells (hand-pump or well) over years as the consequences decreasing the
agriculture productivity and leads to increase the poverty and the conflict among the water users. The causes
of dryness are reported empirically as the decreasing of recharge rate of ground water to the aquifers due to
the forest degradation and deforestation, shifting cultivation practice, change in land use pattern in Chure
region and some parts might be due to impact of climate change (The Kantipur Daily, 2015). However,
causes of decreasing the groundwater recharge over the year in the Chure region are not studied scientifically
till now. On the other hand, there are not analyzed the policies concerns regarding the sustainable use of GW
through conservation of Chure nexus to mitigation of conflict among GW users and long term food security
in Terai by increasing agriculture productivity.
Therefore, the outputs of the research will provide the scientific knowledge and information to all level of
stakeholders regarding the conservation of Chure nexus (rich of natural resources) to food security and
conflict mitigation among communities because sustainable use of GW for irrigation is become major inputs
for ensuring long-term food security in Nepal as well as means of mitigation of conflict among water users
due to overexploitation of GW.
1.2 Research questions
The proposed research will attempt to find answers of the following research questions to meet the objectives
and goal of the research project.
a. Do available literatures prove GW recharge effect caused by the climatic and non-climatic variation? If
it is so, what it is the effect and consequences occur in present condition as well as the future
uncertainty in GW resource in Terai region?
b. What will be the overall impact on availability and accessibility to GW due to specific changes in
climatic and non-climatic parameters in Chure Region?
c. What kinds of adaptation practice are followed by the farm households in the increasing depth of
pumping and extraction cost? Are these practices really adapting in an autonomous manner?
d. What are bio-engineering, sustainable soil conservation techniques (BSSCT) that influence the climatic
and non-climatic factors of ground water recharge on what amount of GW to be extracted and what
technology to be used to pump GW in sustainable manner?
e. What types of the payment for ecosystem services (PES) will be established between Chure and Terai
region community based on BSSCT?
f. What are the possible non-timber forests (NTF) and agricultural product based green enterprises (GEs)
in Chure-Terai region based on BSSCT?
1.3 Research Goal
The goal of the proposed research is to analyze the Chure-Terai nexus on decreasing recharge rate and
increasing extraction cost of groundwater for the sustainable GW management and food security in Nepal.
1.4 Research Objectives
The following are the specific objectives of this research:
a. To conduct the scenario and sensitivity analysis on GW variability (recharge condition, moving
direction, and fluctuation status of water-table) under the variation of climatic and non-climatic factors
of GW recharge.

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 b. To determine levels and types of factors affecting selling and buying decisions and adaptation
behaviors of the GW users with response to extraction cost, recharge rate and water-table fluctuation
levels.
c. To analyze the role of bio-engineering and sustainable soil conservation technologies (BSSCT) in
degraded public and private lands of Chure region to enhance the sustainable use of ground water.
d. To establish the payment for ecosystem services (PES) between Chure and Terai region community for
sustainable use of ground water.
e. To investigate the possible non-timber forest (NTF) and agricultural product based green enterprises
(GEs) in Chure-Terai region for sustainable value chain based livelihood improvement.
f. To provide the scientific information to formulate the policies and action plan for the sustainable use of
ground water.
1.5 Research Method
The quantitative and qualitative data based analysis will be done on this research project. The methodology
of this research project will be based on the following research design (figure-1). The secondary data such as
seasonal static water level for 20 years data will be collected from Groundwater Resource Development
Board. It will be used as sinks in the model. The climatic data such as daily rainfall and average temperature
data at different meteorological stations in the Terai region will be collected from the Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), and will determine their changing pattern. The non climatic data
(deforestation and degradation, shifting cultivation and changing land use pattern in Chure region) for
different decade will collected from Landsat images, and will be analyzed through Arc-GIS and ERDAS
IMAGINE. Finally, spatial data of all causes factor of depleting GW level will be prepare as input data for
MODFLOW, and will simulate interaction of water recharge in confined, unconfined or a combination of
both by using latest version of MODFLOW. To date, different versions are developed over time but GMS
Version 10 package having pre and post-processing facility will be used in analysis. The GMS package has
many different commands and only will select needy modules: i.e. Boreholes, Grid (3D), RIVRiver (river
package), Interpolation (3D), Dug-wells (3D), or saturated zone (aquifer) and unsaturated zone (surface
water) or in the combination of confined or unconfined level or both together. After input of data like flows
to wells, areal recharge, evapo-transpiration, flow of drains, surface recharging factors into the cell, specified
head and specified flux boundaries can be simulated. The analysis gives specific (district or basin- wise) or
cumulative (regional/zonal) GW balance in a graphical 3-D form, which substantially assist us to identifying
the position of GW the study period. Further, specific kinds of climatic and non-climatic scenario will be set
in order to determine future status of GW recharge (stock), direction of GW flow rate and so on.

Second method of empirical analysis will be used as the descriptive tools: frequency, mean, median, standard
deviation, correlation etc to denote variation on above stated parameters, static water-table fluctuation level,
and other information of Household survey data; for that, all primary as well as secondary data will be
tabulated in Microsoft Excel 2007. Trend analysis of time series data will be prepared. The cross-sectional
data of district level or cumulative data (national level) will be analyzed the factors affecting GW extraction
cost as well as variation on adaptation behaviors and informal water market because of changing above
climatic and non-climatic parameters. Advanced methods of analysis for them will be used the Cobb-
Douglass regression function, probit and logit model by using latest version of STATA where all kinds of
data will be imported from Microsoft excel. All STATAs outputs are presented in tabular form by testing
their significance level (t-test and f-test of coefficients related to our test (eta value, likelihood ratio, D-W
test, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, pseudo R2, Wald test, and IMR). Side by side, probit and logit
graphical plot will be shown as per need.

Thirdly, the uncertainty in GW resource availability will be predicted after analyzing nature of aquifer and
GW table variation on changing variation of stated climatic and non-climatic parameters. Particularly, this
scenario and sensitivity analysis will be done based on the role of BSSCTs in degraded public and private
lands on Chure region regarding increasing GW recharge by using MODFLOW simulation model. Based on
the suggesting BSSCTs, the best payment for ecosystem services (PES) between Chure and Terai regions
communities will be established and possible non-timber forest (NTF) and agricultural products based green
enterprises (GE) will be identified through conducting of national level workshop and consultancy works
including all level experts and stakeholders. It will provide the different livelihood options and employment
opportunities to the communities and raising the income of formers through BSSCTs related enterprises and
other activities.

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Eventually, these outputs will provide the scientific knowledge and information to edit and formulate the
policies and action plans on the adaptation and mitigation measure regarding the impacts of existing and
future changes of above parameters with comparing the existing adaptation and mitigation practices of
farmers against the depletion and increasing extraction cost of GW and unsustainable informal water market
for mitigation of conflict among water users and enhancing livelihood of farmers. Definitely, these policies
and action plans will be in the direction of sustainable food and water security through sustainable use of GW
in the Terai region of Nepal.

Analysis of climatic and non- climatic

causes on depletion and increasing
extraction cost of GW in Terai region,
and prepared spatial data on:

Forest degradation and Land use change Shifting cultivation Climate change pattern
deforestation trend in pattern in Chure region pattern in Chure region in Chure region
Chure region

Analyzing the on GW variability under the change of above climatic and

non-climatic factors by using MODFLOW simulation model

Scenario analysis on variation of GW extraction cost, adaptation decision of

farmers and informal water market under the change of GW recharge by
using different econometric functions and models

Sensitivity analysis for the role of BSSCTs in degraded public and private
lands of Chure region regarding increasing GW recharge by using
MODFLOW simulation model.

Investigating the possible non-timber forest Establish the payment for ecosystem
(NTF) and agricultural products based green services (PES) between Chure and
enterprises (GE) in Chure-Terai regions based Terai regions communities based on
on BSSCTs BSSCTs

Analyze and mapping the various existing
adaptation measures and possible GE with
response to extraction cost and adaptation
decision measures
Evaluate and suggest best policy
option for the sustainable use of GW
and food security, and provide
different livelihood options to the
farmers and privet sectors

Figure 1: Conceptual framework for research design