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Audience B SA Enforcement and Intelligence Operations Divisions Issued OC F 2015

Foforcement and Intelligence Priority Irregular Migration Fxpiry MAR 2016

lntdlligencc Operations nH(1 \iial sis l)iisioii

European Migrant Ca-isis:

Impact on Irregular Migration to Canada
k)Al)_2flI5OClO02

Recoin mended for Shift Briefing

Highlights

1. To date, the impact of the European Union (EU) migrant crisis on irregular migration to Canadahas been
hmited While there have been a small number of confirmed cases of failed asylum ccekers in Europe thi.n
seeking refugee protection in Canada, current irregular migration flows to Canada follow established
modus aperandi and have yet to be identified as downstream movements fromthe ongoing situation in
Europe. (PA)

2. Since 2014, unprecedented numbers of refugees and i regular migrants from the Middle East and Africa are
entering the EU via sea and land routes As the EU tightens its borders and asylum policies in response to
the influx, Canada may increasingly be considered by persons seeking refugee protection. (PA)

3. The influx of refugees and migrants into the EU is unlikely to ease in the short tenm Even so, downstream
movements to Canada from individuals currently seeking asylum in Europe will likely remain low over the
coming year Migrants financial means, distance to Canada, travel routes absence of travel documents
visa restrictions and safe third countiy policies will greatly limit the number at irregular migrants able to
reach canada by air, land or sea. (PA)

Background

4 The EU s proxmnt3 to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Africa as well as economically depressed
countries in Eastern Europe has made it a top destination for asylum seekcrs In the first half of 2015
43,900 Syrians sought asylum in the EU accounting for 34% of all sea arrivals Afghans Eritreans
Nigerians and Somalis compose the other largest groups of asylum seekers likely to be granted protection.
A smaller proportion (17%) are economic migrants, largely from the Balkan states Migrants and refugees
are defined and treated differently under international law with the main difference being that migrants
choose to move in order to improve their lives while refugees are forced to flee to save their lives and have
a right to international protection, (U)

5. The majority of those arriving inEurope in the first six months of 2015 were men, making the journey on
their own prior to sending for their families Fstnnatcs from EU and United Nations (U N ) officials predict

SERVICE

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Thisdoatnenlis the peGperty of the Cnadit Border ServiCes Anncy tCBSA) and thouid notbe ied$Llid d nil isRel withui prior oaisent of the
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*nd the CIiSA Seuritv loltcius If ACCESS IS. requested tinder the Anr 4 ttt bf matwe 4ct or the Prna Act. no dedinn shoukt be taken without prior consuitaticin
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that the number of arrivals will only continue to increase further over the second half of 2015. The number
of asylum seekers is anticipated to reach 800,000 in Germany alone by the end of 2015. (U)

6. The migratory influx is disproportionally affecting member states. EU jaw (Dublin Regulations) states that
asylum seekers must claim in the first EU country they enter and that country issolely responsible for
exammmg migrants asylum applications However, many frontline countries, including Italy Greece Hungary
overwhelmed with the number of asylum seekers, hae stopped enrorcing the la and allow migrants to pass
through to secondar3 destmationc in the northern or western Europe Germany and Sweden, who have the most
generous asylum policies, currently receive and accept the majority of asylum applications in the; EU. (U)

7. Many EU countries are reluctant to accept large numbers of refugees. Frontliae :coulitries inability to secure
their external borders coupled with the right to freedom of movement within the EU hasgiven rise, to heightened
security concerns over Islamic terrorists entering the LU posing as refugees France and Denmark have openl)
cited security concerns as justification for their reluctanca in accepting refugees from the MtddlL East and North
Africa Furthr, nationalist anti-immigration parties are also calling for the EU to hmtt the number of refugees it
accepts over integration concerns, Political leaders from Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic and the Czech
Republic have all expressed a strong preference for non-Muslim migrants even though selecting migrants based
on religion is in violation of EU non-discrimination laws. (U)

Analysis

8. With most legal emigration options closed, migrants and refugees increasingly make use of known routes and
means of transport, employing the services of human smugglers to enter the EU via air, land and sea. In 2015,
Greece has overtaken Italy as the primary entry point into Europe. During the first six months of 2015, 67,500
people arrived in Italy, while 68,000 arrived on the islands of Greece, already surpassing the number of sea
arrivals for the whole of 2014 The majority of people arriving in Italy and Greece continue onwards o erland
through the Balkans lookingto reach Germany. (Annex A) (U)

9. The cost to reach Europe varies depending on the distance, destination, level of difficulty, method of transport,
travel document requirements and whether the migrant has personal links to the smugglers. On the low end of
the spectrum, the cost of being smuggled from Libya or Turkey to Europe by sea and then overland through the
Balkans to Hungary is $2 500 -$5 000 CAD per person For the more affluent, a flight from [stanbul to
Frankfurt complete with fraudulent documents, costs $15,000 cAD. For the same price, human smuggling
organizations will arrange an all-inclusive package from Syria to the United Kingdom (U.K.) or France. From
Asia, Afghans reportedly pay between $15,000 and 16,000 CAD to be smuggled to Hungary. (U)

10. For irregular migrants. Canadas geographical location makes it much more difficult, hence more expensive, to
reach ia air land or sea In air mode fraudulent documents ot various kinds including passports visas and
relevant supporting documentation cost $4 000 $20 000 CAD for a single attempt while guaranteed entry
(multiple attempts) cost up to $35,000 CAD To reach Canada via land, a person would m..ed to travel to the
United States (US.) by air on genuine or fraudulent documents or cross the U.SiMexico border. The price of
fraudulent documents to reach the U.S. via air would be similar to those for Canada while the cost o
1 being
smuggled overland through South and Central America to Mexico and into the U.S. ranges from $7,000-
$16 000 CAD for African and Asian migrants By sea, migrant entures to Canada cost $30 000 to $50 000
CAD per persOn (PA)

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osigmator The stormation must be stored, tranAmitted, and tdeguarded AO aordsnce with Itie r1stcatton iceet as uthnd to th G(wemnwnt Secunty
Potict
and the CESA untyThitscsea if access ts requessed tinder the Acress is btfisrsethsn Ad or the PooaorArL sic dedakin iioutd be taken withuI poor conaulestion
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Ii. Current refugee numbers indicate that the direct impact of the EU migrant crisis on irregular migration to
Canada has been limited. Looking specifically atthe top 10 citizenships claiming in Europe in 2014, half of the
movements mto Canada are forecasted to decrease m 2015, while Somalia and Nigeria, which are traditional
sourc countries for irregular migration to Canada are anticipated to register the highect increases Further, the
number of claims for Syria is anticipated to decrease even though the majority of refugees worldwide are
Syrian, Kosovo and Serbia are not significant source countries for irregular migration to Canada. (PA>

Afghanistan 41305 63% 461 77% 225 88% Down 27%

Kasovo 37875 7% 44 31 26 33% Down 11%
Eritrea 36,990 88% 252 85% 18% 85% Up 8%
Serbia 30T8 10 2% 8 7% 3 0% Down 38%
Pakistan 22 120 27% 776 78% 534 78% Up 3%
Iraq 21,330 71% 576 82% 305 90% Down 20%
19950 30% 577 53% 486 53% ,_

Russia 19,685 25% 72 65% 51 69% Up 6%

Somalia 16,805 68% 331 53% 263 56% pj__
IZ

13. With the exception of Syrians, the majority of claimants wh were TRV holders applied for their visas from
their country of origin Most Syrian claimants have a country of last permanent residence in th Middle East
indicating they have been outside of Syria for a long period of time Although many Middle Eastern countries
host large numbers of refugees, most Middle Fastern nations do not offer permanent residence or citizenship to
refugees as a means of protection. (PA)

14,

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(rnac1
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15.

16. It is very unlikely that a miant vessel would arrive in Canada from Europe or West Africa carrying Syrian or
other reftigees due to ongoing disruptions operations, the high level of risk and prohibitive costs.

Push / Pull Factors for Qpyjjreani Migration

17. As of July 2015. the EU has amended its legislation to impose strict deadlineson the processing of asylum
claims. Member states must now conclude the examination process within six months of the lodging of the
asylum application. Extensions can be granted under exceptional circumstances, upto a maximum of2l
months. The amendment was intended to reduce processing times, yet it remains to be seen whether member
states will be able to respect processing delays in the wake of the large number of asylum seekers. Longer
processing times in the EU could result in a one to two year delay in dowmtream movements to Canada as
individuals await the results of their claim in the EU. (PA)

19.

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fl !
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orIGInator The irdorSoation must be StOred, transmitted, arid safe
uardd in ACcordance with Its dassthcation keeL .is outhiwd in the Government Ssurity Pokc
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and the CSSA SecuritY Paheiss It ACOSSA is requested under the Aiott it IflfSTmIfliUfl Ad or the Pmimry,tcl, is, decision should be taken without prior consultatIon
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Implications for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Canada

20. Given its proximity to conflict zones, the EIYs migration crisis isunlikely to ease in the short term. National
interests are hindering a common European response and resolution to the migrant crisis. Looking ahead.
proposed changes in EU immigration and asylum policies, including forced distribution of refugees across the
EU as well as lugher refusal and removal rates might make Canada a preferred destination over the El) for
future irregular movements. Further, the rise of nationalist and anti-immigration parties across Europe vill
likely makeit much more difficult for people to immigrate or seek asylum lathe EU. (U)

21, Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) is forecasting that the overall number of refugee claims will slightly
increase (6%) aver the years of 2015 to 2016 In terms of irregular migration Canada benefits greatl from its
geographical position as it is much more difficult and expensive to reach via irregular means than Europe.
Distance to Canada, finances, travel routes, absence of travel documents, visa restrictions and safe third country
policies are several mitigating factors that greatly limit the number of irregular migrants able to reach Canada by
air, land or sea. The vast majority of refugees and migrants do not have the means to make the expensive
journey to Canada, especially afler making a first journey to Europe. It is therefore unlikely that Canada will see
large downstream movements from those currently seeking asylum in Europe. (PA)

23.

23,

25. CBSA policies and operational procedures require that all IDAS and refugee claimants be reported in the
Support System tar Intelligence (SSI)

Prepared by: CM. Current Intelligence Analysis

5 PCT SFRvkF

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onginator. The to resatiori nuzst be stored, tmnsrnittcij and asfeguarded in a ,rdarice with is dassi&sti level, as outlined ttt the Government Security Policy
.

and the CIISA Serutily Pthcies. It ecnss is requested under the Arsi to Infttnwrii*t Art or the Prtntcy Ad, no oaionsfloWd be talten woutprlorcoetsultadon
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Annex A:

DESTINATIONS AND ORIGINS OF ASYLUM SEEKERS

January-March 2015
Asylum
pert miWon people
1,000 or more
500-999
.r 200-499 jTopIlve
1 199 I countries
r0-99 I of origin i

r4

DESI1NA11ON COUNTRIES with most app&an?s per m4Wopeop4e

Asylum applicants
Wonpople of LU total top three countdes of odiln
ZJ(un9ary 3.322 17.8 Kosovo,Afghanlstan,Syrla
2. Sweden 1384 6.2 Syria, Somalia, Afghanistan
3, AustrIa 1141. 5.3 SyrIa, Kasovo. Afghanistan
4. Ge,many 905 39.6 Kosovo. Syria.Albnla
5, MaLta 811 0.2 Libya, Syria, Mall
6. Cyprus 501 0.2 Sy4ia,.s.tatetess. Vietnam
7. Luxembourg 482 0.1 Kosavo.Mantenegro.Atbanla
8. Butgatia 440 1.7 Syria,Afghanistan, Iraq
9. BeLgium 307 19 Syria. Afghanistan. Iraq
10. Denmark 267 0.8 SyrIa, stateless. Somalia
IL ItaLy 251 82 GambIa, Senegal. Nigeria
12,Greece 239 14 SyrIa, Afghanistan, Pakistan
13. France 224 8.0 Kasovo,Oem, Rep.of Congo, Russia
l4Mnland 176 0.5 Iraq. Somalia, Kosovo
15. Netheriands 144 1.3 SyrIa, Entree. Iraq

COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
anber Nnber
Cc.astsy of applying for Percentage of Countiy of applying for Perc.ntag. of
origin asylum total origin asylum total
A. Kosovo 48,875 26% D.AIhanIa 8,140 4%
B. Syria 29,100 16% E. Iraq 7.295 4%
C. AfghanIstan 12,910 7% Other 78,500 42%
TvnQnt S,tto O13 w... t I

C, PROf. )N;L;(,LiNrcnIT,

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and the CBSA Security Policies if access is requested under the Acow Se hi/lsvlnathsn Art r the Pthars Au. no decision should be taXi without prior contvitation
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