Volume 1, Issue 1
And The Beat Goes On!!
August 24, 2009
As I watched the Dow end
the week up 184.56 points,
despite a bear of a Monday,
I could hear the hooves to
the bulls galloping. Now, I
cannot even get a hot dog
from the hot dog lady with-
out someone asking me
about the markets. When I
told everyone at Dow 8,000
and falling to start edging
their way back into the
market, I could not get a
friendly ear. Today, with
all of the easy money made
at Dow 9500, people are
CPM INVESTMENT STRATEGIES, LLC PRESENTS:
asking where the next Avis
or Bank of America is.
This is when I am at my
most bearish. The pull back
is coming. It has to come.
The Hamiltonian
This is what the “random
walk” is all about. Walking
a little forward, a little
backward, back forward,
and so forth.
But recently, we have been
walking straight ahead
since the 2007—2008
moonwalk in stocks. This
recent market has been
making stars of every Joe
who is willing to close their
eyes and pick a stock out of
a hat. People are doubling
their money without even
picking up an income state-
ment. These are the glory
days boys and soon they
Report
Stocks I am watching
Smith and Wesson (SWHC)
Citigroup (C)
Barrick Gold (ABX)
ProShares Ultrashort Gas & Oil (DUG)
Ford (F)
Chevron (CVX)
AT&T (T)
will pass. pany to beat estimates.
Remember, earning is king
on Wall Street. Without
What the Wall Streeters earnings, you are sitting on
know is that there are two an Enron.
things on the horizon that
should scare everybody
currently in the market.
The first, is volume. Due to
the summer vacation sea-
son, a lot of institutional
buyers have been out of the
office. Soaking it up on
Martha’s Vineyard or tak-
ing the family to see the
Grand Canyon. So, right
now, there is very little in
the way of volume to sup-
port the recent gains. Ex-
pect low volume until after
the Labor Day holiday,
when all hands, and
money, are back on deck.
The second issue is earn-
ings. No matter the opti-
mistic statements our fed
chief, Ben Bernanke, puts
out, companies are lacking
the earnings power to sup-
port all of the recent run
ups in stocks.
Currently, stocks have used
cost cutting measure to
beat estimates. That trick
will only last but so long.
Eventually, the company’s
earnings will have to in-
crease in order for the com-
Special points of interest:
$5.91
 Preliminary Q2 GDP numbers will be re-
$4.70
leased by the Labor Departments. Consen-
$34.67 sus estimates are looking for a –1.4, which
is an increased contraction from initial
$15.78 estimates. I hope Obama is not playing the
same revision game the Bush administration
$7.74 subscribed to.
$69.73
$26.00
 The Hamiltonian Report

Dates to Mark on Your Calendar

MONDAY:
 Israel’s Central Bank is expected to tighten. Can anyone say inflation?
 The famed “Cash for Clunkers” ends at 8 pm. Someone asked me should they take apart in such so-
cialism. I said, “Why not? Goldman Sachs did not have such a moral dilemma when they picked up
their check.”

TUESDAY:
 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE! Maybe just another reason to let a bull get a little bully.

WEDNESDAY:
 Durable Goods Orders for July.
 New Home Sales for July. Remember, last months surprise number rose some homebuilders.
 FDIC is going to vote on a measure to make it easy for private equity firms to buy troubled banks. I
like Shelia Bair but I am cool on this idea on it’s face.

THURSDAY:
 Preliminary Q2 GDP numbers could feed a bear.

FRIDAY:
 July Personal Income and Personal Consumption. Consensus looking for a .1% rise in personal in-
come and a –1.3% fall in personal consumption in July. People, save your money.
 Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment in August. Michigan needs something to be on the rise in Ann
Arbor since the football team appears poised to pull another one. Consensus is looking at a 64, com-
pared to a 63.2 in July.