PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 7 月 5 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
美元可望转弱…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 美国轻质原油期货期货（US Light Sweet Crude oil）逆

转了近来的上扬趋势，并从 79.38 美元高峰回挫，而于周五
收 72.14 美元。

♦ 技术而言，它在上周形成一根“上吊线”（hangman）
后，便纪录了一根巨大利淡阴烛。

♦ 我们早已预料，原油在触及 78 美元强大阻力线而划出一根
类似阴烛形态后，将向下滑落。

♦ 随着它挂收在长期上升趋势线（UTL），加上动力指标向下
转低，我们预测原油将会进一步下跌。

♦ 温和的扶持点位于 5 月的 64.24 美元低点，但较强稳的支

撑水平则是 60 美元。

♦ 至于强力阻力落在 78 美元。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 在过去 4 周来，原棕油期货（CPO）写下了第 3 根阴烛，而

它也继续从 2,500 令吉关口向下下挫。

♦ 随着 14 周强弱指标（14-week RSI）继续向下转低，原产
品的交投动力料将在来周维持疲弱。

♦ 再者，动力解读也转弱，而 10 周移动平均线也向下跌破 40
周移动平均线，因此其中期展望已转淡。

♦ 展望未来，CPO 已准备就绪试叩 2,200 令吉支撑水平。

♦ 一旦丢失这道扶持关卡，这将导致它下探至 1,990 令吉至

2,200 令吉之间的区域。

♦ 至于上档阻力水平则维持在 2,500 令吉。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 与其转升至 3.29 阻力水平，即使令吉兑美元汇率在前周记

录一根“锤头线”（hammer），它还是向下走低。

♦ 令吉在上周写下 3.2611 每周高峰后，便收低于 3.2245。

它在周线图上写下了一根阴烛。

♦ 这表示，与其兑美元走弱，它却从上周初的弱势，逐步转
强。

♦ 有鉴于此，如果令吉的买气继续在本周转强，那么该汇率将
会走强至 4 月的 3.1614 低点。

♦ 中期而言，我们认为，该汇率将会处于 3.16 至 3.29 之

间。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 日元兑美元汇率连续纪录第 4 根阴烛，从而确认它从 6 月初
起于 60 周移动平均线所形成的反转形态。

♦ 其实，随着它达到 86.95 低点，该汇率已达到靠近 87.00

图表支撑水平的下档目标，即接近下降阻力线（DRL）。

♦ 可是，从它形成周线阴烛看来，加上动力解读转淡，我们认
为，该汇率已准备在近日内跌破 DRL。

♦ 一旦跌破这道关卡，这将会加强日元的买气，从而推高它在
近期走强至 79.8 水平。

♦ 相反地，若美元反弹，它将会面对 60 周移动平均线（即
92）的强力障碍力。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 令 人 惊 讶 的 是 ， 在 形 成 一 根 “ 倒 锤 头 线 ” （ inverted
hammer）以建议将出现反弹后，欧元兑美元汇率便在上周
进一步转低，并纪录了一根“看跌抱线型态”（bearish
engulfing）。

♦ 这表示欧元兑美元的买盘动力已恢复。

♦ 若它没法反弹至 0.80 水平以上，欧元兑美元汇率将转低至

0.77，即 21 周移动平均线（即 0.769）。

♦ 从动力指标持续转弱看来，我们认为，欧元兑美元看来将在
近期内转强。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 随着美元指数（DXY）上周再度划出另一根周线阴烛，该指
数已连续第 4 周扩大跌势。

♦ 该蜡烛形态显示它已告失 85 关键扶持水平，反映出美元将
在近期转弱。

♦ 若它无法收复 85 关卡，它将迈向 21 周移动平均线（即

83.20），然后才测试 81 强力关卡。

♦ 从疲弱动力解读看来，我们认为，该指数回升至 85 至 89
之间交投波幅的机会相当渺茫。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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