1NC T: No Military [S]

Economic and diplomatic engagement is distinct from military

engagement.
Lee 12 Instructor, Department of Military & Strategic Studies, Republic of Korea Air Force
Academy (Jeongseok, Hedging against Uncertain Future: The Response of East Asian
Secondary Powers to Rising China Available Online at
http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_18064.pdf)
The Seventh option is to engage with the ascending power. Engagement is defined as
AND
require significant compensations nor costs, and it does not risk provoking antagonism.

Vote neg to preserve limits military affs would explode the topic.
Limits incentivize more nuanced research which is the foundation for
productive debate. Broad interpretations sabotage clash and subvert
education.
 1NC China Politics

Xi has built political credibility through hardline stances towards

America. The plan derails his power, which is key to overcome
opponents to important reforms.
Sheehan 15 Matt, covers China for The WorldPost and Huffington Post, 2015 ("What You
Need To Know About China's Strongman President" Huffington Post, September 20th, Available
Online at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chinese-president-xi-
jinping_us_55fed862e4b08820d918ff14)
This week President Barack Obama will host one of the other serious contenders for most
AND
, these are the questions and currents that will be driving the conversation.

A slowing Chinese economy forces Xi to tap into nationalist

tendencies causes SCS and ECS war.
Blackwill 16 Robert D., Henry A. Kissinger Ssenior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the
Council on Foreign Relations, served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National
Security Advisor for Strategic Planning under President George W. Bush as well as U.S.
Ambassador to India () China's Strategy for Asia: Maximize Power, Replace America, National
Interest, May 26th, Available Online at http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-strategy-asia-
maximize-power-replace-america-16359)

Diplomacy After the Downturn Economic growth and nationalism have for decades
been the two founts

AND

businesses face will likely cause renewed friction in Chinas relationships with the West.

It draws in the US and causes nuclear war.

Wittner 11 Lawrence S., Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New
York/Albany, ("Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?" Huntington News, November 28th,
Available Online at www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
AND

destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and

destruction.
 1NC T: Must not be QPQ

Engagement must be unconditional if they meet vote neg on

presumption because congress says no
Smith 5 Karen E. Smith, Professor of International Relations and Director of the European
Foreign Policy Unit at the London School of Economics, 2005 (Engagement and conditionality:
incompatible or mutually reinforcing?, Global Europe: New Terms of Engagement, May,
Available Online at http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/484.pdf, Accessed 07-25-2013, p. 23)
First, a few definitions. Engagement is a foreign policy strategy of building
AND

change in another country, conditionality more of a top-down strategy .

Vote neg.

First limits. Their aff justifies an unmanageably large number of

other conditional affs..

Second precision. The plan doesnt meet the best definition of

engagement key to predictability. Broad definitions over-
generalize, undermining conceptual clarity.
 1NC - Elections

Clinton wins now

Silver 9/6 Nate Silver, Founder and Editor in Chief of FiveThirtyEight, former analyst for
Baseball Prospectus, former debater at East Lansing High School where he was coached by Will
Repko, holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Chicago, 2016 (Election Update:
Clintons Lead Keeps Shrinking, Five Thirty Eight, September 6th, Available Online at
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/, Accessed
09-10-2016)
I, for one, welcome the unofficial end of summer. Ill miss the
AND

polling error of that magnitude, would make the Electoral College highly competitive .

The plan flips the election

Bennett 15 Cory Bennett is a reporter for the Hill 11/10/15 02:28 PM EST Republican
presidential front-runner Donald Trump is vowing to enforce a zero tolerance policy for
Chinas digital theft of U.S. corporate secrets if elected.
http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/259693-trump-pledges-zero-tolerance-for-chinese-
hackers Trump pledges 'zero tolerance' for Chinese hackers
He made the pledge as part of a policy paper on U.S.-
AND
adopt a zero tolerance policy on intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer.

Trump is the most probable scenario for nuclear war

Beres 8/23 Louis Ren Beres, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Purdue
University, has served as a consultant for the Department of Defenses Defense Nuclear Agency,
the JFK Special Warfare Center, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency, and the Nuclear Control Institute, former Research Fellow
at the Center of International Studies at Princeton University, holds a Ph.D. in Politics from
Princeton University, 2016 (What if you dont trust the judgment of the president whose finger
is over the nuclear button?, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 23rd, Available Online at
http://thebulletin.org/what-if-you-don%E2%80%99t-trust-judgment-president-whose-finger-
over-nuclear-button9794, Accessed 08-23-2016)
A Trump presidency may seem increasingly improbable, but it also still remains conceivable.
AND

No aspect of the current presidential campaign could possibly be more urgent.

Outweighs on scope multiple scenarios for extinction
Kristof 3/5 (Nicholas, American journalist, author, op-ed columnist, and a winner of two
Pulitzer Prizes, 3-5-16, "Donald the Dangerous" New York Times)
www.nytimes.com/2016/03/06/opinion/sunday/donald-the-dangerous.html?_r=0
IS there any scarier nightmare than President Donald J. Trump in a tense international
AND

the very brand of anger that has led other nations into the abyss.
 1NC Agenda Politics

Government funding coming now freedom caucus is key

McPherson 9-9 [Lindsey McPherson, House leadership reporter at Roll Call. House
Republicans Ready Government Funding Pitches, Roll Call, 9-9-2016, Accessible Online at
http://www.rollcall.com/news/policy/house-republicans-ready-government-funding-pitches]
SW 9-9-2016
Ahead of the conference meeting, President Barack Obama invited the Republican and
Democratic leaders
AND
into December would likely give Congress enough time to complete the appropriations process.

The Plan is unpopular

Glaser 15 (Bonnie, Senior Adviser for Asia in the Freeman Chair in China Studies, where she
works on issues related to Chinese foreign and security policy. She is concomitantly a senior
associate with CSIS Pacific Forum and a consultant for the US government on East Asia, "China
bashing: American campaign ritual or harbinger of tougher policy?,"
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2015/08/25/China-bashing-American-campaign-ritual-
or-harbinger-of-tougher-policy.aspx)

China-bashing in the 2016 presidential election has begun in earnest . In past

AND

domestic stability, defence of sovereignty, and pursuit of the Chinese Dream.

Causes disease
Burwell 13 - Sylvia Burwell, Director of the Office of Management and Budget,
11/7/13("Impacts and Costs of the October 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," published by
Whitehouse, Available online at
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/reports/impacts-and-costs-of-october-
2013-federal-government-shutdown-report.pdf, Accessed 9/10/2016, )
Public Health and Research

Cut back flu season surveillance and monitoring, as

AND
or medicine were furloughed, with their work de- layed or disrupted.
Extinction
Quammen 12 David, award-winning science writer, long-time columnist for Outside magazine for fifteen years, with
work in National Geographic, Harper's, Rolling Stone, the New York Times Book Review and other periodicals, 9/29, Could the
next big animal-to-human disease wipe us out?, The Guardian, pg. 29, Lexis

Infectious disease is all around us. It's one of the basic processes that ecologists
AND

factor is infectious [from] disease, and viruses in particular.

 1NC CP UQ

The United States federal government should end existing cyber

cooperation with the Peoples Republic of China.
 1NC CP

Text: The United States federal government should adjust their

nuclear war contingency plan timetables to 24 to 72 hours. The United
States should adopt a no first-use pledge against Peoples Republic
of China.

The contingency plan prevents nuclear miscalculation from

cyberattacks.
Gady 15 Franz-Stefan Gady, Associate Editor with The Diplomat, Senior Fellow with the
EastWest Institute, 2015 ("Could Cyber Attacks Lead to Nuclear War?," The Diplomat, May 4th,
Accessible Online at http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/could-cyber-attacks-lead-to-nuclear-
war/, Accessed On 11-11-2015)
First, sophisticated attackers from cyberspace could spoof U.S. or Russian early
AND
Cartwright, who headed Strategic Command from 2004 to 2007 and was vice chairman
 1NC - OCOs

Unrestrained use deters cyber war legal norms increase risk of conflict
Crosston 12 (Dr. Matthew Crosston is the Miller Endowed Chair for Industrial and
International Security and founder and director of the International Security and Intelligence
Studies (ISIS) program at Bellevue University. He has authored two books, several book
chapters, and nearly a dozen peer-reviewed articles on counterterrorism, corruption,
democratization, radical Islam, and cyber deterrence, Virtual Patriots and a New American
Cyber Strategy Winter 2012, Strategic Studies Quarterly, p. 100-118)
These proposed behavioral rules about jus in cyber bello are paradoxical: with so many
AND

to futureweapons 1ac Jensen is about civilian protection OCOs

target other states
 1NC Adv 1

No risk of cyber war---disputes empirically deescalate

Dr. Brandon Valeriano 14, Senior Lecturer (Politics), Univ of Glasgow, and Ryan C. Maness,
visiting fellow of security and resilience studies in the Department of Political Science at
Northeastern University, The dynamics of cyber conflict between rival antagonists, 200111,
Journal of Peace Research May 2014 vol. 51 no. 3 347-360,
http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/51/3/347.short

Even considering our past investigators and theory, we were surprised to find little actual

AND
comes from strong institutions capable of managing and restricting cyber-based disputes.

Interdependence solves---the worst case scenario is angry IT people

David Gewirtz 15, Distinguished Lecturer for CBS Interactive, director of the U.S. Strategic
Perspective Institute, Cyberwarfare Advisor for the International Association for
Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, Could cyberwar knock us back to the Stone Age?
Aug 3 2015, http://www.zdnet.com/article/could-cyberwar-knock-us-back-to-the-stone-age/

This includes China, by the way. Since China's economy is so dependent upon

AND
make yourself a target of thousands upon thousands of pissed off IT professionals.

Economic ties and deterrence outweigh.

Gelb 13 Leslie H. Gelb, President Emeritus and Board Senior Fellow at the Council on
Foreign Relations, former Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and columnist for the New York
Times, served as Assistant Secretary of State in the Carter Administration and was the recipient
of the Distinguished Honor Awardthe State Departments highest honor, served as Director of
Policy Planning and Arms Control for International Security Affairs at the Department of
Defense where he was the recipient of the Distinguished Service Awardthe Defense
Departments highest honor, holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University, 2013 (Is a military conflict
between China and the United States possible in the future?, Ask CFR Expertsa Council on
Foreign Relations blog, Question submitted by Josh Wartel from Lake Braddock Secondary
School, September 9th, Available Online at http://www.cfr.org/china/military-conflict-between-
china-united-states-possible-future/p31361?cid=rss-fullfeed-is_a_military_conflict_between-
090913, Accessed 09-12-2013)
Is a military conflict between China and the United States possible in the future?
AND

on their nation's economic development , and war would certainly set that back .
Nationalism deters war
Twining 13Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. PhD
in IR from Oxford (5/3/13, Dan, The dangerous domestic politics of U.S.-China relations,
shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/03/the_dangerous_domestic_politics_of_us_china
_relations)

There are, however, powerful countervailing factors that mitigate the likelihood of all-

AND
over parts of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh -- a potentially decisive strategic advantage.

No capabilities
Fisher 09 editor of threatpost.com [Dennis, 10/23. Report: Cyber-Terror Not A Credible
Threat. ThreatPOST: http://threatpost.com/en_us/blogs/cyberte rror-not-credible-threat-
102309]
A new report by a Washington policy think tank dismisses out of hand the idea
AND
chosen not to use them. This alternative is nonsensical," Lewis writes.

Air Gaps check

Green 2 [(Joshua, Editor of the Washington Monthly) The Myth of Cyberterrorism, The
Washington Monthly, Nov 2002]
When ordinary people imagine cyberterrorism, they tend to think along Hollywood plot lines,
AND
as PDAs, BlackBerrys, and even wireless or infrared copiers and faxes.

China says no attribution capability is behind the USs

Harold et al 16aff author Libicki is an American scholar and Professor at the Frederick S. Pardee RAND Graduate
School in Santa Monica, California, Harold is associate director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, Cevallos is a political scientist at the RAND
Corporation (Scott Warren, Martin C. Libicki, Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Getting to Yes with China in Cyberspace, Kindle, Introduction//AT)

Chinas reluctance to accept U.S. accusations of Chinese hacking may reflect the
AND
be difficult to have a meaningful agreement without improvements in Chinas attribution
capabilities.
Theyre suspicious of norms
Harold et al 16 1ac author Libicki is an American scholar and Professor at the
Frederick S. Pardee RAND Graduate School in Santa Monica, California, Harold is associate
director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, Cevallos is a political scientist at the RAND
Corporation (Scott Warren, Martin C. Libicki, Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Getting to Yes with China in
Cyberspace, Kindle, Introduction//JC)
This is a very difficult challenge but not, in our opinion, an absolutely
AND
with China on cyberspace lead to lasting changes in Chinese actions in cyberspace.
 1NC Adv 2

No modeling - strategic incentive to maintain legal ambiguity

Waxman 11
Matthew C. Waxman, Associate Professor, Columbia Law School; Adjunct Senior Fellow,
Council on Foreign Relations; Member of the Hoover Institution Task Force on National
Security and Law, Yale Journal of International Law, March 16, 2011, Cyber-Attacks and the
Use of Force: Back to the Future of Article 2(4)," vol 36,
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1674565
B. Technology, Power Shifts, and the Strategic Logic of Legal Interpretation

AND

on a different set of objectives, capabilities, vulnerabilities, and constraints.

LOAC has no effect on restricting nanoweap use and theres a bunch of

alt causes
Nasu & Faunce 10 (Hitoshi Nasu: Lecturer, The Australian National University College of
Law, Australia. Thomas Faunce: Associate Professor, The Australian National University College
of Law and Medical School, Australia. Australian Research Council Future Fellow,
Nanotechnology and the International Law of Weaponry: Towards International Regulation of
Nano- Weapons, Journal of Law, Information and Science)
Such a debate will have to take account of the Martens Clause,82
AND

injury or unnecessary suffering has primarily been applied in relation to antipersonnel

weapons.

Jensen also concedes most cyber ops dont violate LOAC

Jensen 14 (Eric Talbot Jensen, Associate Professor, Brigham Young University Law School,
THE FUTURE OF THE LAW OF ARMED CONFLICT: OSTRICHES, BUTTERFLIES, AND
NANOBOTS, 35 Michigan Journal of International Law (forthcoming 2014)

As clearly argued by Paul Walker, most cyber activities will not reach the threshold

AND
act of violence. If so, as a matter of targeting,
No runaway nanotech oxidization, laws of thermodynamics, no
experimental support, hype, at best hundreds of years away
Locklin 10 Physicist specializing in Quantitative Finance, PhD UC Davis, Nano-nonsense:
25 years of charlatanry http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/nano-nonsense-25-
years-of-charlatanry/
I used to work next to the center for nanotechnology. The first indication I
AND
go where you want because your computer program directs them to go there.

nanotech impossible--fat and sticky fingers

Smalley in 2001 [Richard Gene and Norman Hackerman Professor of Physics and
Chemistry @ Rice University, received the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the discovery of
fullerenes September, Nanofallacies: of Chemistry, Love, and Nanobots, Scientific American,
Vol. 285 #3]
But how realistic is this notion of a self-replicating nanobot? Let's think
AND
fingers. Such a nanobot will never become more than a futurist's daydream.

Zero impact to grid failures, even ones caused by cyber attacks

Douglas Birch 12, former foreign correspondent for the Associated Press and the Baltimore
Sun who has written extensively on technology and public policy, 10/1/12, Forget Revolution,
Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/01/forget_revolution?
page=full
Government officials sometimes describe a kind of Hieronymus Bosch landscape when warning
of the possibility
AND

that even a large-scale blackout would not necessarily have catastrophic consequences.

Monitoring and auto shutdowns prevent meltdowns even if they

happen, timeframe is long and risks are small either way cyber-
attacks cant breach physical containment of radiation
WNA 14 [World Nuclear Association, Responsible for 95% of the World's Nuclear Power
Outside Of The U.S., As Well As The Vast Majority Of World Uranium, Conversion And
Enrichment Production, April, Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors, http://www.world-
nuclear.org/info/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/safety-of-nuclear-power-reactors/AKG]
To achieve optimum safety, nuclear plants in the western world operate using a 'defence
AND

ample time for evacuation three days before any significant radioactive releases.