Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712

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Marine Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol

Shipping casualties and loss of life in UK merchant shipping, UK second

register and foreign ags used by UK shipping companies
Stephen E Roberts a,n, Peter B Marlow b, Bogdan Jaremin c
a
College of Medicine, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK
b
Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Colum Road, Cardiff CF10 3EU, UK
c
Institute of Maritime and Tropical Medicine, Medical University of Gdansk, Powstania Styczniowego 9B, 81-519 Gdynia, Poland

a r t i c l e i n f o abstract

Article history: UK shipping companies increasingly agged out their ships from the 1970s to the late 1990s. This study
Received 27 September 2011 used Lloyds casualty records from 1970 to 2005 to investigate and compare shipping casualties and
Received in revised form crew fatalities in UK shipping, UK second registers (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar, Hong Kong and
3 November 2011
the Isle of Man) and six foreign ags (Bahamas, Belize, Cyprus, Malta, St. Vincent and Vanuatu) used
Accepted 5 November 2011
frequently by UK shipping companies. The study also assessed how 12 shipping factors may affect ships
Available online 30 November 2011
foundering and crew fatalities. Shipping casualty and crew fatality rates fell over time in UK shipping, in
Keywords: UK second registers and in older ags of conveniences, rather than in newer ags of convenience such
UK shipping as Belize and St. Vincent. Cargo, trade and weather most strongly affected ships foundering and crew
UK second register
fatalities. The ndings indicate that shipping casualties and crew fatalities should be monitored in new
Flag of convenience
and rapidly expanding ags of convenience.
Shipping casualty
Crew fatality & 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1. Introduction seafarers employed in non-UK shipping have had higher fatal

From the 1970s to the 1990s, there was a large reduction in
the size of the UK merchant eet, as well as in those of many
European and advanced economic countriesincluding Germany,
France, Italy, Sweden and Japan [1]. This was largely because UK
shipping companies reregistered their (cargo-carrying) ships
mainly for economic reasons with ags outside the UK.
The ships were usually registered with, rstly, UK second
register eets such as Bermuda, Gibraltar and the Isle of Man
or, secondly, with foreign ags that have been labelled as ags of
convenience or open registries such as Cyprus, Malta and
St. Vincent.1 Correspondingly, the sizes of these eets have
typically increased sharply since the 1970s. However, following
the tonnage tax incentive introduced by the UK government in
August 2000, some UK shipping companies have now reregistered
their ships back in the UK, which has since resulted in a
substantial increase in the size of the UK merchant eet.2
Previous studies have shown that many ags of convenience
often have increased rates of shipping casualties [5,6], while British
accident rates than British seafarers employed in the UK eet [7].
It is not fully clear whether these increased risks of shipping
casualties and crew fatalities apply to ags that are used frequently
by UK shipping companies, or to other ags of convenience. It is
also unclear whether the increased risks are linked more strongly
to confounding risk factors than to the ag itself. For example,
hazards could depend instead on the type of ship, the cargo carried
or the trading routes, which can vary strongly across ags.
There are three main objectives of this study. Firstly, to
compare shipping casualty rates and associated crew fatality
rates in UK shipping with those in UK second registers and in
foreign ags that have been used frequently by UK shipping
companies. Secondly, to investigate long term trends over time in
the shipping casualty and crew fatality rates and, thirdly, to
investigate how shipping risk factors (including type of ship,
age, ag, gross tonnage, trade, cargo, location and weather) may
increase the risks of a ship foundering or increase the risks of
crew fatalities following a shipping casualty.

n
Corresponding author. Tel.: 44 1792 513433/513426; 2. Material and methods
fax: 44 1792 513423.
E-mail address: stephen.e.roberts@swansea.ac.uk (S. Roberts). 2.1. Shipping casualties and crew fatalities
1
Flags of convenience shipping registries are based on lists compiled by the
International Transport Federation [2,3].
2
The tonnage on the UK shipping register totalled 18.8 million gross tonnage
Lloyds casualty records were used to compare shipping
at the end of April 2011; an increase of over 11 million gross tonnage from April casualties and crew fatalities in UK merchant shipping with those
2001 [1,4]. in UK second register eets (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar,

0308-597X/$ - see front matter & 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2011.11.004
704 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712

The Lloyds casualty data included in this study covered all

UK casualties among merchant ships of at least 100 gross tonnage,
3000
Hong Kong that were either actual total losses or constructive total losses
Isle of Man
Bermuda between January 1st 1970 and December 31st 2005. The study
Number of ships

Cayman Islands excluded more minor casualties, casualties of shing vessels and
Gibraltar
casualties through ships being destroyed, damaged or detained as
2000
a result of military conict. Additional details of the shipping
casualties were obtained from narrative details published by
Lloyds Maritime Information Services [9], and from internet
1000 searches.
As Lloyds casualty records do not distinguish fatalities to
crew, passengers, etc. when investigating crew fatalities, addi-
0 tional searches were performed to investigate whether the fatal-
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ities referred to crew. Unless they could be established as crew
Year fatalities, fatalities from passenger ships and ferries were
excluded as they mostly refer to passengers, but fatalities from
UK
Bahamas
all other (mainly cargo) ships were included, as they usually refer
3000 Belize to crew. The analysis of crew fatalities was restricted to the 26
Cyprus year period from 1980 to 2005, when mortality information was
Number of ships

Malta
St Vincent available from the Lloyds casualty data.
2000 Vanuatu

2.2. Factors that affect ships foundering and crew fatalities

1000
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Fig. 1. Trends over time in the numbers of ships from 1970 to 2005. (a) for UK and
UK second register ags, (b) for UK and foreign ags used frequently by UK
shipping companies.
Hong Kong and the Isle of Man), and in foreign ags (or ags of
convenience) that have been used frequently by UK shipping
companies.3 The criteria for selecting these foreign ags were,
rstly, that they had been used frequently by UK shipping
companies and, secondly, that they had been comprised of
substantial proportions of UK-owned merchant ships (at least
20% of all ships on the register during at least part of the study
period).4 The six foreign ags that met these criteria and were
included in the study were the Bahamas, Belize, Cyprus, Malta,
St. Vincent and Vanuatu.
Fig. 1a shows changes over time in the numbers of ships
annually registered in the UK eet and in the ve UK second
register eets from 1970 to 2005, while Fig. 1b shows the changes
over time for the UK and for the six foreign ags [1]. There was a
sharp reduction in the UK eet from 1970 to the 1990s, but large
increases for Hong Kong (since 2000), the Isle of Man (since the
1990s), Cyprus (during the 1980s), Bahamas (in the late 1980s),
Malta (1980s and early/mid-1990s) and St. Vincent and Belize
shipping (1990s).
3
Three of these ve UK second registers (Bermuda, the Cayman Islands and
Gibraltar) have been classied as ags of convenience [2,3]. As Hong Kong was
classied as a UK second register throughout most of the study period (from 1970
to 1997) it has been included in this study.
4 5
The numbers of UK-owned ships that were registered annually with various
ags (including the UK, UK second registers and the various foreign ags) was
provided by UK Department for Transport publications for the years from 2000
onwards [8], and through requests to the Department for Transport for similar
information during earlier years. The second criteria was applied so that foreign
ags with very large eets (such as Panama and Liberia) although used quite
frequently by UK shipping companies comprised of very small proportions of UK
owned ships and would not therefore be included in this study.
The study investigated the effects of 12 shipping risk factors
on, rstly, the risks of a ship foundering (or capsizing) and,
secondly, crew fatalities following a shipping casualty. These 12
factors were as follows: the type of ship, age, gross tonnage, ag,
the year and country in which the ship was built, the year and the
month of the casualty, the main cargo carried, the (inter or intra
continental) trading voyage, the location of the casualty (sea or
ocean, based on Marsden grid reference) and the reported
weather conditions. Information on these 12 risk factors was
obtained, rstly, from Lloyds casualty records and, secondly, from
narrative data published by Lloyds Maritime Information
Services [9].
The analysis of shipping risk factors that affect ships founder-
ing and crew fatalities was conned to the 26 year period from
1980 to 2005 when comprehensive risk factor data was provided
by Lloyds. Since the aim of this part of the study was to
investigate the effects of the risk factors on ships foundering
and on crew fatalities following the casualty for ships that were
on voyage also excluded were casualties to ships, which were at
dock, under repair in shipyards or under tow to be scrapped, and
which were no longer in active service. Casualties involving ships
that were at anchorage were assumed to be on voyage, unless
otherwise specied in the Lloyds records and were included.5
In order to establish accurately the role of factors such as
type of cargo, ag state of registration and age of ship on the risk
of a ship foundering, ideally it would be necessary to have
recorded details of every voyage (world-wide between 1980 and
2005) to compare all ships that foundered with all of those that
did not. As it was not feasible to obtain complete voyage data over
26 years, comparison was made between all ships that foundered
and all that were casualties from other causescollisions,
grounding, res, explosions and other casualties.6 When investi-
gating the inuence of the shipping risk factors on crew fatalities
following a casualty, comparison was made between all casualties
These additional criteria resulted in the exclusion of a further 18.1% (161 of
890) of shipping casualties from 1980 to 2005.
6
Although this is an imperfect control comparison, it is still very useful for
investigating factors that affect ships foundering. For example, if a typhoon in the
North Pacic, a cargo of iron ore or a ship aged more than over 20 years are major
risk factors for a ship foundering and for crew fatalities, these factors should not
have a strong inuence on whether the ship is involved in a collision, has an
explosion in the engine room or becomes stranded.
 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712 705

Table 1
Number of shipping casualties, casualty rate per 1000 ship-years, numbers of seafarers lost and crew fatality rates per 1000 ship years, in UK, UK second register and
foreign ags, 19702005.

No. of shipping Casualty rate per (95% CI)b No. of Crew fatality rate per (95% CI)b
casualties 1000 ship-years seafarers losta 1000 ship years

UK 151 2.2 (1.9, 2.6) 167 4.3 (3.7, 5.0)

Bermuda 8 2.4 (1.0, 4.7) 26 9.8 (6.4, 14.4)
Cayman Islands 46 10.7 (7.8, 14.3 23 5.4 (3.4, 8.1)
Gibraltar 15 8.4 (4.7, 13.8) 18 10.6 (6.3, 16.7)
Hong Kong 16 1.2 (0.7, 2.0) 90 7.5 (6.0, 9.2)
Isle of Man 7 1.9 (0.8, 4.0) 14 3.9 (2.1, 6.5)

Totalsecond registers 92 3.5 (2.8, 4.3) 171 7.0 (6.0, 8.2)

Bahamas 95 4.2 (3.4, 5.1) 101 4.6 (3.8, 5.6)

Belize 94 9.7 (7.9, 11.9) 163 16.9 (14.4, 19.6)
Cyprus 442 11.9 (10.8, 13.0) 452 14.5 (13.2, 15.9)
Malta 151 7.2 (6.1, 8.5) 374 18.2 (16.4, 20.1)
St Vincent 162 9.4 (8.0, 11.0) 171 9.9 (8.5, 11.5)
Vanuatu 11 2.3 (1.2, 4.1) 43 9.6 (6.9, 12.8)

Totalforeign ags 955 8.5 (7.9, 9.0) 1304 12.4 (11.8, 13.1)

Total 1198 5.8 (5.4, 6.1) 1642 9.3 (9.1, 10.3)

a
Fatalities are based on the period from 19802005.
b
95% CI 95% condence interval.

Table 2
Details of major shipping casualties with 20 or more crew fatalities seafarers, 19702005.

Flag Year Name of ship Type of ship (gross No. of Details of the shipping casualty
tonnage, age) seafarers
lost

Bahamas 1989 MV Kronos Bulk carrier (11170, 16) 20 Disappeared without trace during amid F11 storms in the Bay of
Biscay, from Poland to Greece with a cargo of steel.
Belize 1995 MV Al Kashem General cargo ship (3025, 25) 24 Disappeared with all crew when on voyage from Hong Kong to Japan
Cyprus 1979 MV Master Michael Tanker (3664, 20) 31 Sank after an explosion in the engine room in the Caribbean Sea, in
ballast from Djibouti to Saudi Arabia. Four survivors.
Cyprus 1977 MV Eurobulker General cargo ship (7311, 14) 29 Disappeared during a hurricane in Mediterranean Sea when sailing
from Spain to Iran with a cargo of bagged cement
Cyprus 1988 MV Anthenian Venture Tanker (18251, 13) 29 Violent explosion and re south east of Nova Scotia, sailing from
Amsterdam to New York with unleaded petrol
Cyprus 1991 MV Blue River Tanker (9707, 18) 28 Capsized and sank with all crew in typhoon Amy in the South China
Sea, from Thailand to Taiwan with molasses.
Cyprus 1990 MV Charlie Bulk carrier (10673, 15) 27 Disappeared without trace in severe F11 storms in the North Atlantic,
Canada to Mozambique with a cargo of grain.
Cyprus 2000 MV Christopher Bulk carrier (83784, 17) 27 Foundered with all crew in heavy weather off the Azores on voyage
from Ecuador to Redcar with a cargo of coal.
Cyprus 1996 MV Anna Spiratou Bulk carrier (16352, 18) 26 Sank with all crew after colliding with a Greek bulk carrier in dense
fog in the Korea Strait, from Russia to Taiwan.
Cyprus 1997 MV Albion Two Bulk carrier (16278, 21) 25 Disappeared during severe North Atlantic storms, on voyage from
Poland to Jamaica with steel products.
Cyprus 1994 MV Shipbroker Bulk carrier (14826, 14) 25 Fire after collision with a Cyprus agged tanker in the Bosphorous, in
ballast from Greece to Russia. Five saved.
Cyprus 1979 MV Milli Tanker (1113, 16) 24 Foundered after leaking during storms in the Bay of Biscay, from
Holland to Spain with butane.
Cyprus 1994 MV Iron Antonis Ore carrier (48,756, 26) 24 All crew lost after abandoning ooding ship during gales in the South
Atlantic, from Brazil to China with iron ore.
Cyprus 1998 MV Flare Bulk carrier (16947, 26) 21 Sank after breaking in two in North Atlantic storms off
Newfoundland, from Rotterdam to Canada. Four rescued.
Cyprus 1997 MV Leros Strength Bulk carrier (12998, 21) 20 Foundered with all crew during gales off Norway, when sailing from
northern Russia to Poland with iron ore.
Hong Kong 1971 SS Fatshan Passenger ferry (2637, 38) 83 Capsized and sank near Lantau Island after being struck by a drifting
ship during typhoon Rose. Four survivors.
Hong Kong 1991 MV Mineral Diamond Bulk carrier (75330, 9) 27 Disappeared during a cyclone in the Indian Ocean after leaving
Dampier, west Australia for Ymuiden with iron ore.
Hong Kong 1995 MV You Xiu Bulk carrier (15 865, 3) 27 Foundered with all crew after striking a breakwater when anchored
in ballast off Constantza, during severe storms.
Malta 1995 MV Paris Bulk carrier (14806, 23) 27 Sank with all crew after striking a breakwater during the same storm,
when anchored in ballast off Constantza.
Malta 1994 MV Christinaki Bulk carrier (16401, 21) 27 Foundered with all crew after hatch cover failure in North Atlantic
storms, from Liverpool to Mexico with scrap metal.
Malta 1993 MV Anderson Bulk carrier (6623, 18) 24 Foundered in the South China Sea during typhoon Becky, from
Russia to China with a cargo of iron. One survivor.
Malta 1995 MV Link Star General cargo ship (6241, 22) 23 Sank with all crew during gales in the Bay of Bengal, from India to
Taiwan with a cargo of steel products.
706 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712

Table 2 (continued )

Flag Year Name of ship Type of ship (gross No. of Details of the shipping casualty
tonnage, age) seafarers
lost

Malta 1994 MV Stolidi Oil tanker (138764, 18) 20 Explosion and re in the accommodation area, Arabian Sea, from
Oman to South Korea with oil. 17 survivors.
Malta 1989 MV Rahim 3 General cargo ship (2958, 20) 20 Foundered in heavy weather off Dubai when sailing from Qatar to
India with a cargo of scrap metal.
St Vincent 1993 MV Xian Ren General cargo ship (2889, 28) 29 Foundered with all crew off Japan in heavy weather, from Japan to
China with a scrap iron cargo.
St Vincent 1998 MV Golden Harvest Bulk carrier (12535, 23) 24 Sank with all crew during a cyclone in Arabian Sea, from Jordan to
India with diammonium phosphate.
UK 1972 SS Royston Grange Refrigerated cargo steamship 64 Explosion and re after a collision with a Liberian tanker amid dense
(9035, 13) fog in the River Plate. All crew lost with 10 others. From Montevideo
to London with dairy products.
UK 1980 MV Derbyshire Bulk carrier (91 655, 4) 42 Disappeared following hatch cover failure off Japan during typhoon
Orchid, with iron ore from Canada to Japan.
UK 1987 MV Herald of Free Enterprise Passenger ferry (7951, 7) 38 Capsized after departing the Belgian port of Zeebrugge for Dover with
the bow doors left open. 155 passengers lost.
Vanuatu 1989 MV Capitaine Torres General cargo ship (6444, 21) 23 Foundered with all crew during storms in the Gulf of St. Lawrence,
sailing from Indiana to Taiwan with containers.
Casualty rate (per 1000 ship-years)

Vanuatu (1984-
250 St Vincent (1974-
Malta
Cyprus
200 Belize (1992-
Bahamas
Isle of Man (1987-
Hong Kong
150 Gibraltar
Cayman Islands
Bermuda
100 UK

50

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Casualty rate (per 1000 ship-years)

1970-1979
40 1980-1989
1990-2005

30

20

10

0
K

nd n

Ko ong

as

ta

tu
r

Ba an f
M eo
lta

ru
ud

la ma

liz
U

al

a
m

nc t
Va nt
ng

yp

nu
ra

S
G s

Be

M
m

ha
Is
ay

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ib

C
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Be

Vi
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Fig. 2. Trends in shipping casualty rates in the twelve study ags, 19702005. (a) annually, (b) by time period. [Notes: Vertical bars represent 95% condence intervals
Annual shipping casualty rates are smoothed in a)].

for which there was at least one crew fatality and all other
casualties with no fatalities.7
7
Fatalities from non-passenger ships were assumed to refer to crew and
unless it was possible to identify that there was at least one crew fatality from the
passenger ships fatalities from passenger ships were assumed to refer to
passengers and were excluded from the analysis.
Statistical methods used include shipping casualty and crew
fatality rates, calculated using the numbers of casualties as
numerators and the numbers of ships registered with each ag
as denominators [1], and expressed per 1000 ship-years at risk.
Other methods include chi-square tests and multiple logistic
regression to assess associations between shipping risk factors
and the risks of, rstly, ships foundering and, secondly, crew
 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712 707

fatalities. The multiple regression models were constructed using
a parsimonious stepwise approach so that they ultimately com-
prised only of risk factors that had signicant independent effects
or effect sizes of three or more.
or other heavy weather (six) ve were caused by collisions or
contacts and four by res and explosions.
3.2. Trends over time in shipping casualty and crew fatality rates

Fig. 2 shows trends over time in shipping casualty rates across

the 12 ags, annually (Fig. 2a) and in broad time periods with 95%
3. Results
condence intervals (Fig. 2b). The overall shipping casualty rate for
the 12 ags increased sharply from the late 1970s to a peak in the
3.1. Shipping casualties and crew fatalities
1980s and apart from a much smaller peak during the early 1990s
has fallen continually since. The casualty rate has been very low for
There were a total of 1198 shipping casualties in the twelve
UK shipping throughout the 36 year period. Of the other ags, the
study ags from 1970 to 2005, and a total of 1642 lives lost
casualty rate was most elevated for Cyprus-registered ships during
through 733 separate shipping casualties with fatalities between
the 1970s, St. Vincent, Gibraltar, Malta and Cyprus during the 1980s,
1980 and 2005.
and Belize and St. Vincent since 1990.
Over the 36 year period, shipping casualty rates were highest
The overall crew fatality rate for the 12 ags increased from
for ships registered in Cyprus (11.9 per 1000 ship-years), the
the early 1980s to the mid-1990s but has fallen sharply since
Cayman Islands (10.7 per 1000), Belize (9.7) and Gibraltar (8.4)
(Fig. 3a). The fatality rate was most increased for Vanuatu,
and lowest for Hong Kong (1.2), the Isle of Man (1.9) and the UK
Gibraltar and Malta during the 1980s, Malta, Cyprus, Hong Kong,
(2.2). Overall crew fatality rates were by far the highest for ships
Belize and St. Vincent during the 1990s and Belize since 2000. It
registered in Malta, Belize and Cyprus and lowest for the Isle of
was relatively much lower for the UK eet throughout the 26
Man and UK registries (Table 1).
years (Fig. 3b).
Table 2 provides details of all major shipping casualties in the
twelve ags from 1970 to 2005 that led-to the loss of 20 seafarers
or more. Of these 30 major casualties, which led to the loss of 878 3.3. Factors that affect ships foundering
seafarers, most (16) refer to bulk or ore carriers, followed by
general cargo ships (6) and tankers (5). Most were agged by When the 12 shipping risk factors were considered individu-
Cyprus (13) or Malta (5) with three UK-registered ships, the SS ally, the following were associated with highest signicance
Royston Grange, the MV Derbyshire and the MV Herald of Free (p o0.001) with the risk of a ship founderingthe main cargo
Enterprise. Twenty-one of the 30 ships foundered or disappeared (with highest risks for iron ore), the type of ship (highest for
usually in typhoons, hurricanes or cyclones (six), storms (seven) dredgers and general cargo ships), the ag (St. Vincent and

200
Vanuatu (1984-
St Vincent (1974-
Malta
Crew fatality rate (per 1000

Cyprus
150 Belize (1992-
Bahamas
Isle of Man (1987-
ship-years)

Hong Kong
Gibraltar
100 Cayman Islands
Bermuda
UK

50

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

80 1980-89
1990-99
Crew fatality rate (per 1000

2000-05
60
ship-years)

40

20

0
K

n n

Ko ng

as

ta

u
r

Ba n f
M eo
lta

ru
ud

la ma

liz

at
U

al
m
o

St

Va nt
ng

yp

nu
ra
G ds

Be

M
rm

ha
Is
ay

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a
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nc
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Vi
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Fig. 3. Trends in crew fatality rates in the twelve study ags (19802005). (a) annually, (b) by time period.
708 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712

Table 3
Associations between shipping risk factors and whether or not the shipping casualty was due to the ship foundering in the twelve study ags.

Shipping factor (p-value)a Per cent of shipping casualties due to ship Shipping factor (p-value)a Per cent of shipping casualties due to
foundering (no. of cases) foundering (no. of cases)

Main cargo (p o 0.001) Flag (po 0.001)

Ballast/empty 15.6 (90) UK 35.2 (54)
Cement 48.4 (31) Bermuda 33.3 (6)
Coal 22.2 (9) Cayman Islands 26.1 (23)
Containers 31.6 (19) Gibraltar 27.3 (11)
Fertilisers and chemicals 36.7 (49) Hong Kong 30.0 (10)
General cargo 28.6 (21) Isle of Man 28.6 (7)
Grain and other foods 32.3 (93) Bahamas 36.1 (61)
Iron and steel 49.2 (61) Belize 51.3 (80)
Iron ore 69.2 (13) Cyprus 28.3 (226)
Other metals and ores 45.5 (33) Malta 29.8 (114)
Logs, timber and wood 22.7 (44) St. Vincent 54.3 (129)
Oils and gasses 54.8 (31) Vanuatu 37.5 (8)
Other cargoes 37.9 (58)
Age of ship (years) (p 0.022)
Locationof casualty (p 0.005) 09 50.0 (28)
Mediterranean Sea & Black Sea 33.8 (136) 1014 45.5 (44)
AtlanticSouth 16.7 (24) 1519 34.9 (172)
AtlanticNorth 37.8 (74) 2024 30.4 (247)
Irish Sea & English Channel 50.0 (28) 2529 37.9 (132)
North Sea 35.2 (54) 30 47.2 (106)
Baltic Sea 27.3 (11)
Bay of Biscay 55.3 (38) Gross tonnage (p o0.001)
Red Sea/Gulf of Aden/Persian Gulf 17.6 (51) o 500 46.5 (155)
Arabian Sea 44.7 (38) 500999 47.5 (61)
Bay of Bengal 46.2 (13) 10001999 45.0 (111)
Indian Ocean 44.8 (29) 20004999 41.3 (126)
South China Sea & East China Sea 41.3 (63) 50009999 29.1 (103)
PacicNorth 29.7 (37) 1000019999 19.4 (108)
PacicSouth 25.0 (12) 20000 23.1 (65)
Caribbean Sea 50.0 (88)
Year ship was built (p 0.34)
Trade (p 0.35) Pre 1960 40.5 (111)
All other 31.7 (164) 19601964 35.1 (74)
AmericaEurope 66.7 (12) 19651969 41.8 (146)
EuropeN America 50.0 (10) 19701974 32.6 (178)
EuropeNE Asia 55.6 (9) 19751979 32.4 (136)
EuropeS Asia 22.7 (22) 1980 41.7 (84)
N AmericaS America 38.5 (13)
N EuropeN Europe 41.2 (68) Country where ship was built (p 0.006)
N EuropeS Europe 43.5 (23) UK 30.4 (79)
N EuropeW Africa 25.0 (8) Japan 40.0 (180)
NE AsiaNE Asia 35.7 (42) Germany 35.7 (98)
S AmericaEurope 33.3 (12) Norway 24.2 (33)
S AmericaS America 46.3 (41) Netherlands 54.8 (84)
S AsiaEurope 33.3 (12) Spain 29.3 (41)
S AsiaNE Asia 40.0 (15) Sweden 20.0 (20)
S AsiaS Asia 40.9 (44) Denmark 52.9 (17)
S EuropeN Europe 64.3 (14) Other 34.7 (144)
S EuropeS Europe 32.6 (46)
W AfricaN Europe 44.4 (9) Month of yearof casualty (p 0.76)
January 39.7 (68)
Type of ship (po 0.001) February 42.5 (73)
Passenger/RoRo cargo 23.8 (21) March 32.3 (62)
Bulk carrier 30.1 (113) April 36.4 (55)
Tanker 22.7 (66) May 24.2 (33)
Container 18.2 (11) June 40.4 (57)
General cargo 42.1 (461) July 32.3 (65)
Tug/offshore 34.1 (41) August 31.9 (47)
Dredger 42.9 (7) September 38.3 (47)
Other 22.2 (9) October 31.7 (60)
November 40.9 (66)
Time periodof casualty (p 0.50) December 41.5 (94)
19801984 32.0 (122)
19851989 42.0 (157) Sea state (po 0.001)
19901994 36.0 (161) No hazards reported 27.7 (498)
19951999 37.8 (180) Heavy weather/swell 57.0 (207)
20002005 34.9 (109) Typhoon/freak weather 54.2 (24)

a
p-value obtained through the chi-square test.

Belize), gross tonnage (smaller ships o2000 gross tonnage) and with the location of the casualty (highest risks for the Bay of
sea state (highest for heavy weather and typhoons; Table 3). Biscay), the age of the ship (oldest and newest ships) and the
These were followed by smaller associations (0.001 op o0.05) country where the ship was built (Netherlands and Denmark).
 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712 709

Table 4
Associations between shipping risk factors and whether or not crew fatalities resulted from the shipping casualty in the twelve study ags.

Shipping factor (p-value)a Per cent of shipping casualties with crew Shipping factor (p-value)a Per cent of shipping casualties with crew
fatalities (no. of cases) fatalities (no. of cases)

Main cargo (p 0.026) Flag (p 0.15)

Ballast/empty 14.6 (90) UK 14.8 (54)
Cement 19.4 (31) Bermuda 33.3 (6)
Coal 44.4 (9) Cayman Islands 13.0 (23)
Containers 36.8 (19) Gibraltar 27.3 (11)
Fertilisers and chemicals 18.4 (49) Hong Kong 40.0 (10)
General cargo 19.0 (21) Isle of Man 28.6 (7)
- Grain and other foods 17.2 (93) Bahamas 22.0 (61)
Iron and steel 31.1 (61) Belize 30.4 (80)
Iron ore 53.8 (13) Cyprus 15.5 (226)
Other metals and ores 18.2 (33) Malta 22.8 (114)
Logs, timber and wood 25.0 (44) St. Vincent 18.8 (129)
Oils and gasses 22.6 (31) Vanuatu 37.5 (8)
Other cargoes 14.3 (58)
Age of ship (years) (p 0.082)
Locationof casualty (p 0.045) 09 35.7 (28)
Mediterranean Sea & Black Sea 16.2 (136) 1014 25.6 (44)
AtlanticSouth 8.3 (24) 1519 24.4 (172)
AtlanticNorth 27.0 (74) 2024 16.7 (247)
Irish Sea & English Channel 25.0 (28) 2529 19.8 (132)
North Sea 18.5 (54) 30 16.2 (106)
Baltic Sea 27.3 (11)
Bay of Biscay 23.7 (38) Gross tonnage (p 0.66)
Red Sea/Gulf of Aden/Persian Gulf 9.8 (51) o 500 15.7 (155)
Arabian Sea 21.1 (38) 500999 21.3 (61)
Bay of Bengal 23.1 (13) 10001999 23.6 (111)
Indian Ocean 27.6 (29) 20004999 22.2 (126)
South China Sea & East China Sea 34.4 (63) 50009999 18.4 (103)
PacicNorth 35.1 (37) 1000019999 19.6 (108)
PacicSouth 8.3 (12) 20000 24.6 (65)
Caribbean Sea 17.4 (88)
Year ship was built (p 0.025)
Trade (p 0.036) Pre 1960 13.6 (111)
All other 17.8 (164) 19601964 13.5 (74)
AmericaEurope 33.3 (12) 19651969 17.9 (146)
EuropeN America 50.0 (10) 19701974 23.2 (178)
EuropeNE Asia 22.2 (9) 19751979 21.3 (136)
EuropeS Asia 4.5 (22) 1980 31.3 (84)
N AmericaS America 7.7 (13)
N EuropeN Europe 19.1 (68) Country where ship was built (p 0.22)
N EuropeS Europe 30.4 (23) UK 13.9 (79)
N EuropeW Africa 25.0 (8) Japan 23.5 (180)
NE AsiaNE Asia 38.1 (42) Germany 11.3 (98)
S AmericaEurope 8.3 (12) Norway 21.2 (33)
S AmericaS America 19.5 (41) Netherlands 22.9 (84)
S AsiaEurope 8.3 (12) Spain 26.8 (41)
S AsiaNE Asia 40.0 (15) Sweden 20.0 (20)
S AsiaS Asia 18.2 (44) Denmark 23.5 (17)
S EuropeN Europe 35.7 (14) Other 24.5 (144)
S EuropeS Europe 28.3 (46)
W AfricaN Europe 22.2 (9) Month of yearof casualty (p 0.91)
January 17.6 (68)
Type of ship (p 0.011) February 20.8 (73)
Passenger/RoRo cargo 11.8 (21) March 22.6 (62)
Bulk carrier 25.7 (113) April 21.8 (55)
Tanker 30.3 (66) May 12.1 (33)
Container 36.4 (11) June 22.8 (57)
General cargo 16.7 (461) July 20.0 (65)
Tug/offshore 22.0 (41) August 15.6 (47)
Dredger 57.1 (7) September 17.0 (47)
Other 22.2 (9) October 25.0 (60)
November 16.9 (66)
Time periodof casualty (p 0.21) December 24.5 (94)
19801984 14.8 (122)
19851989 18.5 (157) Sea state (po 0.001)
19901994 22.0 (161) No hazards reported 13.3 (498)
19951999 25.3 (180) Heavy weather/swell 32.9 (207)
20002005 18.3 (109) Typhoon/freak weather 56.2 (24)

a
p-value obtained through the chi-square test.

There were no signicant associations between the risks of As some of the risk factors are often inter-related (e.g. type of
foundering and the time period or the month of the year (of the ship, gross tonnage, ag, trade and location of the casualty),
casualty), the trade or the year that the ship was built. multivariate analysis was used to identify those factors with
710 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712

signicant independent inuence or with an independent effect
size of 43 on the risk of a ship foundering (Table 5). The
following were independently signicant: cargo, trade, location,
gross tonnage, month of year and sea state. Firstly regarding
cargo, compared with ships in ballast or empty, those with the
highest risks of foundering were carrying iron ore (18-fold
increased risk) or iron and steel (16). The other highest indepen-
dent risks of foundering were for typhoons (17-fold) and heavy
weather (8.4), for trades from south Europe to north Europe (13)
and from Europe to north east Asia (8.7), for large ships of 45000
gross tonnage compared with o500 (8.3) and for casualties in the
Bay of Bengal (6.9; Table 5).
3.4. Factors that affect crew fatalities
When considered individually, the following shipping factors
were associated with crew fatalities arising from a shipping
casualty: cargo (highest risks for iron ore and coal), location of
the casualty (North Pacic and the South China Sea or East China
Sea), trade (Europe to north America and south Asia to north east
Asia), type of ship (dredgers and container ships), the year the
ship was built (ships built since 1980) and sea state (typhoons;
Table 4). There were no signicant associations between crew
fatalities and the time period, the age of the ship, gross tonnage,
the country where the ship was built or the month of the year.

Table 5
Shipping factors that had signicant independent inuence (or independent effect sizes of 43) on the risks of (i) ships foundering and (ii) crew fatalities following a
shipping casualty.

Casualties due to foundering Casualties with crew fatalities

Shipping factor Increased risk (95% CI)a Increased risk (95% CI)a

Main cargo
Ballast/empty Refb Ref
Cement 6.85 (1.89, 24.8)c
Coal 8.71 (0.84, 89.9) 11.2 (1.57, 79.0)c
Fertilisers and chemicals 4.93 (1.50, 16.2)c
Grain and other foods 3.50 (1.23, 9.95)c
Iron and steel 15.9 (4.99, 50.8)c
Iron ore 18.0 (2.24, 145)c 4.05 (0.71, 23.1)
Other metals and ores 4.98 (1.30, 19.1)c
Oils and gasses 15.2 (4.03, 57.4)c
Other cargoes 4.58 (1.42, 14.8)c

Trade
All other Ref Ref
AmericaEurope 4.66 (0.68, 31.9)
EuropeN America 3.11 (0.40, 24.2) 3.18 (0.52, 19.2)
EuropeNE Asia 8.69 (1.11, 68.1)c 4.56 (0.67, 30.9)
NE AsiaNE Asia 4.95 (1.05, 23.4)c
S AsiaNE Asia 4.69 (0.81, 27.3)
S EuropeN Europe 13.0 (2.27, 75.0)c 5.80 (1.08, 31.3)c
S EuropeS Europe 3.30 (1.12, 9.72)c 3.16 (1.05, 9.55)c

Locationof casualty
Mediterranean Sea & Black Sea Ref Ref
AtlanticNorth 3.50 (1.17, 10.4)c
North Sea 5.15 (1.03, 25.6)c
Baltic Sea 5.82 (0.72, 46.8)
Bay of Bengal 6.87 (0.76, 62.1)
Indian Ocean 3.01 (0.73, 12.5)
Caribbean Sea 4.29 (1.03, 17.9)c 3.03 (0.70, 13.2)

Gross tonnage
o500 Ref Ref
50009999 0.13 (0.66, 2.28)
1000019999 0.11 (0.84, 2.73)
20000 0.12 (1.06, 3.99)c

Month of yearof casualty

January Ref Ref
October 0.27 (0.08, 0.92)c

Sea state
No hazards reported Ref Ref
Heavy weather/swell 8.40 (4.58, 4.24)c 4.40 (2.43, 7.94)c
Typhoon/freak weather 17.1 (3.56, 81.9)c 12.1 (3.13, 46.5)c

Country where ship was built

UK Ref
Norway 4.58 (0.83, 5.07)
Netherlands 3.39 (0.85, 3.77)
Spain 3.70 (0.81, 16.8)
Sweden 3.73 (0.62, 22.6)
Denmark 3.66 (0.64, 21.0)
Other 3.62 (1.05, 12.4)c

a
95% CI 95% condence interval.
b
Reference category.
c
Denotes signicance at the 5% level.
 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712
Using multivariate analysis (Table 5), those factors associated
independently with crew fatalities were cargo (highest risks for
coal and iron ore), trade (highest for south Europe to north Europe
and for several trades to north east Asia), location of the casualty
(the Baltic Sea and the North Sea), sea state (typhoons and heavy
weather) and the country where the ship was built (low risks for
UK built ships).
4. Discussion
This study found that shipping casualty and crew fatality rates
have fallen over time in UK shipping, in UK second registers and
in older ags of conveniences that are used frequently by UK
shipping companies. There has been less evidence of improve-
ment for newer, less established ags of convenience, such as
Belize and St. Vincent, which have had high shipping casualty and
crew fatality rates in recent years. Of 12 shipping factors inves-
tigated, weather conditions, cargo and trade were identied as
the most important for ships foundering and crew fatalities.
A major strength of this study is that it provides new evidence on
shipping casualty and crew fatality rates across registries that are
used by UK shipping companies, and on risk factors for ships
foundering and for crew fatalities following shipping casualties.
The study used Lloyds casualty records, which are the single most
comprehensive source of information on shipping casualties world-
wide, with particularly good coverage for UK shipping, UK second
registers and also for other ags used frequently by UK shipping
companies. Although it is thought that the coverage of Lloyds
casualty records improved slightly from about 1980 onwards, the
vast majority of casualties in these ags would have been identied.
The analysis also included casualties that were actual total losses or
constructive total losses and excluded more minor casualties, which
would be covered less comprehensively in Lloyds records.
Study limitations include the fact that Lloyds casualty records
do not distinguish between fatalities among crew and passengers.
Therefore, unless identied otherwise, assumptions were made
that fatalities from passenger ships referred to passengers and
fatalities from all other (mainly cargo) ships referred to crew.
Although this would incorporate some discrepancies into the
study ndings for crew fatalities, these assumptions would be
accurate in most cases so that the discrepancies would be small.
Our control comparison when assessing the risks of ships foun-
dering casualties from all other causes was imperfect: for
example, an older ship may have an increased risk of foundering,
but it would also often have an increased risk of becoming a
constructive total loss following damages arising through a
different type of casualty such as a re or a collision as an
older ship may be considered not worth repairing and returning
to service. However, such biases are probably small across the
range of 12 shipping factors and, in the absence of complete
voyage data for every ship in every eet over the study period, it
is almost certainly the best control comparison available.
A further limitation is that whereas actual total losses of ships
are clearly dened, the threshold for a shipping casualty becom-
ing a constructive total loss may vary, for example, according to
factors such as the ships age, the ships owners and the ag state.
Finally it was not possible to include information on human and
cultural factors comprehensively over the long study period.
These factors would include the nationalities and ages of the
ships captains and ofcers, their experience, training and risk-
taking, along with fatigue, stress levels, communication and
safety cultures on board, which can often effect or contribute to
shipping casualties and subsequent loss of life [9,1518].
Regarding trends in shipping casualties, the aggregated rate for
the 12 study ags (UK, UK 2nd register and foreign) has fallen
711
quite sharply throughout much of the period since the early
1980s. While the UK, Bermuda and Hong Kong eets had low
casualty rates throughout the 36 year study period, this overall
reduction over time has been due largely to improvements for the
older, more established ags of convenience such as Cyprus, the
Bahamas, The Cayman Islands and Malta that previously had
high casualty rates when they were new or expanding sharply
during the 1970s or 1980s. In the most recent years, casualty
rates have been highest in the two newer, less established ags of
convenience, namely Belize and St. Vincent.
The trend over time in the overall crew fatality rate for the 12
ags increased up to the early and mid-1990s but has fallen since.
This peak coincided with several factors at this time. Firstly, the
emergence of the Belize ag. Secondly, an increase in crew fatal-
ities for the St. Vincent and Hong Kong ags. Thirdly, it coincided
with the foundering of a large number of bulk carriers (which were
often lost with entire crews) that were agged mainly by Cyprus,
Malta and Hong Kong. Since the mid-1990s, however, there has
been a substantial reduction in the crew fatality rate.
When investigating associations between the 12 shipping
factors and the risks of ships foundering, the highest risks were
for the Belize and St. Vincent ags. However, when using multi-
variate analysis, the most important independent risk factors for
ships foundering were the main cargo (with highest risks for iron
ore, iron and steel cargoes), trades from Europe to north East Asia
(mainly Japan, Korea, Taiwan and East China), small ships of low
gross tonnage and weather conditions (most importantly for
typhoon/freak weather conditions followed by other heavy
weather). The fact that the ag was no longer independently
associated with the risk of a ship foundering indicates that the
shipping casualties for the highest risk ags (e.g. Belize and
St. Vincent) often had other important risk factors (such as a high
risk cargo, trade, ship size and/or weather conditions) that were
more important causal factors than the ag itself.
When investigating risk factors that affect crew fatalities
following a casualty, via multivariate analysis, there was little
association with the ag state. The most important independent
risk factors were type of cargo (with highest risks for coal and iron
ore), trade (from south Europe to north Europe and several trades
to north east Asia), casualties in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea
and weather conditions (most importantly for typhoons/freak
weather conditions).
Apart from weather conditions, the two most important
shipping factors overall that affected ships foundering and crew
fatalities were the type of cargo and the trade. High risk cargoes
included iron ore, iron and steel and coal. Iron ore is the most
dense cargo that can place severe stresses on cargo holds and has
for long been identied from many studies as a major risk factor
for catastrophic structural failure in bulk carriers [2,1014]. Coal
cargoes have sometimes been prone to shifting in heavy weather
with major consequences for the stability of small general cargo
ships for example the MV Lovat and the MV Amberley [19,20]
although cargo shifting is less of a hazard for larger bulk carriers.
Regarding trade, ships trading to north east Asia during the late
summer and autumn months often have to contend with
typhoons in the north west Pacic, the South China Sea, the
East China Sea and the Sea of Japan which is the region of the
world with the most frequent and the most severe typhoons [21].
These trades have also been associated with increased risks of
foundering for bulk carriers [5], including the largest British ship
ever lost at sea, the MV Derbyshire, which disappeared off Japan on
voyage from Canada in 1980 [22,23].
Of the 12 ags investigated in this study, Vanuatu and
Gibraltar had the highest crew fatality rates during the 1980s,
while Gibraltar subsequently had its shipping registry restricted
by the UK Marine Safety Agency. More recently, Belize has had the
712 S.E Roberts et al. / Marine Policy 36 (2012) 703712
highest crew fatality rate, while Belize and St. Vincent have had
the highest shipping casualty rates. Concerns about the safety
record of the Belize registry increased in Britain during the late
1990s after the 32 year old general cargo ship MV Rema sank with
four British crew in the North Sea in 1998 [24,25]. The ship had
been detained for ve days earlier in the year for 18 defects, as
well as during the previous year for problems including hull
damage and deck cracking [26]. The following year, another
Belize-registered general cargo ship, MV The Royal One, listed
and almost foundered in the Irish Sea and was detained for 10
deciencies by the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency. The ship
had been detained six times in the preceding two years [26].
As of June 2009, a total of 35 ags world-wide were targeted
for special enforcement by either the Paris or Tokyo Memoran-
dums of Understanding (MOUs) blacklists or by the US Coast
Guard target list [27]. These 35 ags included Belize (Paris and
Tokyo blacklists and the US Coast Guard target list), St. Vincent
(Paris blacklist and US Coast Guard target list) and Bahamas,
Gibraltar and Malta (all on the US Coast Guard target list). Of the
12 study ags, St. Vincent and Belize were among two of 16 ags
world-wide that had ship detention rates of more than 10% in
2006 [28]. The number of ships on the Belize register has shrunk
by more than 40% since 2007 [1], which may lead to future
improvements in safety and ship detentions. The UK, Bahamas,
Cyprus, Hong Kong and the Isle of Man study ags all met low risk
criteria on the Paris MOU in 2009 [29].
The study illustrates that some of the older more established
ags of convenience (such as Cyprus and Malta) previously had
high shipping casualty and crew fatality rates that have improved
over time. However, some of the high risks of casualties and
fatalities appear to have been transferred in some way to newer
or emerging ags of convenience, such as Belize (established in
1992) and St. Vincent (in 1984), although there has also been
evidence of more recent improvement for the older of these two
ags, St. Vincent. This study indicates that it is important that
shipping casualties and crew fatalities should be monitored in
newly emerging and rapidly expanding ags of convenience.
5. Conclusions
Several conclusions follow from this investigation and policy
makers, governments and international organisations should bear
the following points in mind when formulating policy:
1. In recent years, there has been a reduction in shipping
casualties and crew fatalities for the UK merchant eet, for
UK second registries and for older, more established ags of
convenience used frequently by UK shipping companies. There
has, however, been less evidence of improvement for newer
ags of convenience.
2. The multi-factorial risk analyses revealed that the most
important risk factors for ships foundering and for crew
fatalities were the main cargo carried, trade and the weather
or sea state conditions.
3. The study indicates that it is important that shipping casual-
ties and crew fatalities should be monitored in newly emer-
ging and rapidly expanding ags of convenience.
4. Information on human and cultural factors were not available
comprehensively for inclusion in this study, and require future
investigation.
Conict of interest
None
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to John Crilley for advice and help
with Lloyds Register casualty data, and Jeremy Grove and
Margaret Talbot (Department for Transport) for advice and help
with shipping gures for ags used by UK shipping companies.
The study was funded in part by the Maritime and Coastguard
Agency, UK Department for Transport (Grant number: RP 578).
The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily
those of the funding body.
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