INVESTMENT IDEA 29 Dec 2016

PCG RESEARCH
Nucleus Software
Industry CMP Recommendation Buying Range Targets Time Horizon
BUY at CMP and add on
IT Software Products Rs. 248 Rs. 248 - 225 Rs. 328 - 380 4-6 Quarters
Declines

HDFC Scrip Code NUCSOF Company Background

BSE Code 531209
Nucleus Software Exports is a leading software provider with innovative and pioneering software solutions
NSE Code NUCLEUS for banks and financial organizations globally. Its software powers the operations of more than 150
Bloomberg NSC companies in 50 countries, supporting retail banking, corporate banking, cash management, internet
banking, automotive finance and other business areas.
CMP as on 29 Dec 16 248
Equity Capital (Rs Cr) 32.4 Nucleus Software is known for its world-class expertise and innovation in lending and transaction banking
technology. It has two flagship products, built on the latest technology: i) FinnOne, named the Worlds
Face Value (Rs) 10 best-selling lending system for 6 years running (IBS Publishing). ii) FinnAxia, an integrated global
transaction banking solution used by banks worldwide to offer efficient and innovative global payments and
Equity O/S (Cr) 3.2
receivables, liquidity management and business internet banking services. It has won 10 times award of
Market Cap (Rs cr) 790 worlds best-selling lending solution provider. During Dec 2015, company had launched worlds first offline
digital cash solution.
Book Value (Rs) 140
Avg. 52 Week
392299
Volumes Investment Rationale
52 Week High 303
New technologies and new orders to bring-in growth
52 Week Low 195
The company has built up a strong product portfolio over the last 20 years and has developed solutions
spanning from Retail Banking to Corporate Banking, Cash Management, Internet Banking and Credit Cards.
Shareholding Pattern (%) The company launched new versions of products FinnOne Neo and FinnAxia for NBFCs. Now FinnOne Neo
Promoters 60.6 is available on cloud which would provide lending platform that is secure, scalable and responsive to the
changing customer demands. FinnAxia includes a direct debit solution that provides robust and scalable
Institutions 9.2 platform and comprehensive security features.
Non Institutions 30.2
mApply the mobile loan self-sourcing solution, which is the latest addition in the companys portfolio
enables the customers to select the best offer and submit a paperless loan application in no time. The
PCG Risk Rating* Yellow process can be easily done on Mobile without need to visit Bank. After customers have availed the loan
* Refer to Rating explanation then, customers can use the same for repayment schedules. With this product, Banks can easily enhance
business reach, cross sell new products and reduce the cost of loan origination.
Kushal Rughani
kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com

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Last year it had won 13 new product orders and 28 product modules successfully implemented across the
world. Nucleus has more than 100 installations of its product FinnOne since its inception in 1991. Revenue
contribution from the top 5 clients was at 48% against 41% during H1 FY17. As on Sep 2016, the order book
position stood at Rs. 334cr including Rs. 298cr of products business and Rs. 36cr of projects and services
business.

Revolutionary Product: PaySe

The company launched PaySe (Pay Securely) the worlds first offline digital cash solution in Dec 2015. It
will reduce and offset the costs associated with cash by replacing physical cash notes with digital currency. It
would also help in enabling digital cash and digital banking access to millions people who even dont have a
mobile phone.

PaySe is a technology-build on the concept of crypto currency, primarily tokenization to deliver offline peer-
to-peer payment solutions. Card holders will be able to move money from connected bank accounts to the
device through the online mode and then will be able to make payments offline through near-field
communication technology or Bluetooth function. The personal identification number-enabled device, called
Purse, which looks like a sleek calculator of the size of a debit card, though five times thicker, has been
developed by the company.

Nucleus creates crypto coins or electronic coins on a device and these coins can be downloaded from bank
account via Palm ATM, which is a smart phone. Once coins are downloaded either on device or on card, the
card called PaySe or the device is call Purse, once coins are downloaded on Purse or on PaySe card then it is
as good as cash and then one can transact with others who have a similar device and one can use card to
make the payment. However, to draw an analogy this card though it is quite away from a typical debit card
or a credit card in terms of its functioning, in fact this is completely away but it is somewhat similar that on
the card one has the money and the devise that is Purse like a point of sale (POS) and the transaction can
take place between these two devices.

PaySe product has gone live with two customers and gradually we believe more and more customers will be
added which would in turn boost revenues. Nucleus multiple offerings would help both microfinance
institutions, payment banks, and in fact small banks also to leverage the technology that we have developed,
we have been working on for some of the technologies we have been working for decades and some of the
latest technology that I want to talk about is something that we have been working for last three years and
this is a very exciting technology. Company has deployed it very successfully in two microfinance institutions
one in Haryana other one in Rajasthan. Company had deployed it with 100 odd self-help groups (SHGs) and
even microfinance institutions have asked us to deploy them in 5000 odd groups. So that is a validation of
the technology that has got developed in house here and likewise PaySe (Pay Securely).

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The personal identification number-enabled device, called Purse, which looks like a sleek calculator of the
size of a debit card, though five times thicker, has been developed by the company. The partner companies
will be responsible for white labelling and distribution of the product. Purse will be a mobile device to carry
digital money. The product is under the pre-paid instruments guidelines of the Reserve Bank of India.

Card holders will be able to move money from connected bank accounts to the device through the online
mode and then will be able to make payments offline through near-field communication technology or
Bluetooth function.

The bank account will be integrated to the device and even if someone does not have a smartphone, he can
walk up to any merchant or person who has a smartphone with the Purse app and through Bluetooth function
will be able to transfer money from bank account to the device and the other way around. This feature has
been named Palm ATM.

Currently more than 80% transactions in India are done through cash, which is not part of any record. Digital
payments will enable analysis of transaction data which will create a credit history and will allow them to
avail credit. Unlike debit or credit card transactions which attract charges such as merchant discount ratio,
the company would not charge any cost for peer to peer transactions made through the digital Purse.

H1 FY17 Results Update

Consolidated revenue for the Half Year was at Rs. 185cr vs. Rs. 169cr for H1 FY16. Overall Revenue in
foreign currency for the Half Year was at US$ 27.6 mn vs. US$ 26.5 mn for the corresponding half
year of the previous year. Revenue contribution from the top 5 clients stood at 48% vs. 41%.

Products revenue for the Half Year was at Rs. 144cr, against Rs. 125cr for the corresponding half year
of the previous year. Revenue from projects and services for the Half Year was at Rs. 41.3 crore,
against Rs. 44.7 crore.

EBITDA for the half year, EBITDA was at Rs. 23.3cr, (12.6% of revenue), against Rs. 6cr, (3.5% of
revenue) in the corresponding half year of the previous year. India business witnessed sharp
turnaround and posted good operating profits against loss in PY H1 FY16.

Net profit for the half year was at Rs. 24.5cr against Rs. 11.3cr. Total other Income for the half year
was Rs.12.6cr against Rs. 14.7cr.

In terms of foreign currency hedges, on Sep 30, company had USD 6.37 million dollars of forward
contracts at an average rate of 68.7. There was mark-to-market (MTM) gain of Rs. 63lakhs which
company has taken to hedging reserve in the balance sheet.

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The order book position was Rs. 334cr including Rs. 298cr of products business and Rs. 36cr of
projects and services business. In June 30, 2016 the order book position was Rs. 370cr including Rs.
325cr of products business and Rs. 45cr of projects and services business.

Total Cash and cash equivalents as on Sep 30, 2016 were at Rs. 412cr against Rs. 394cr as on June
30, 2016. This includes balances in current accounts of Rs. 25cr, liquid fund schemes of mutual funds
Rs. 161cr, Rs. 32cr in fixed maturity plans, fixed deposits with banks of Rs.74cr, investments in Tax
free bonds of Rs. 77cr and Rs. 42cr in Preference shares. Company spends 6-7% of revenues into
R&D for its products and new products development. Furthermore, cash would be utilised to explore
attractive inorganic opportunities.

Geographically well diversified

Domestic business account for 25% revenues for the company and exports contributed the balance.
Geographically the company is well diversified with an equally strong presence across markets like Far East,
South East Asia, India, Middle East, Africa, America, Europe / UK etc. In order to drive its growth, it is also
planning to increase its presence in the markets where they have done less product implementations. The
company has also entered into countries like Australia and New Zealand through wholly owned subsidiary.

New product launches going ahead would drive the growth momentum in revenues & profitability. Nucleus
has developed innovative mobility solutions (mServe, mCash, mCollect), which is getting good response from
existing customers due to its ability to reduce the total transaction time significantly for banks which may
lead to better ROEs. Though the ticket size is small, it would add to the companys revenues and profits.

Stock trades at extremely attractive valuations of ~1x FY19E EV/Revenue & 6.2x EV/EBITDA

Nucleus has posted just 3.5% revenue cagr over FY14-16 as it went under transformation / investment
phase. It posted 9% decline in revenues from Projects & Services segment, while products business posted
4.7% cagr over the same period. In FY16, company posted EBITDA margin of 8.5%, lowest in the last eight
years. The pressure in margin was largely due to lack of ramp up in revenues and surge in operating costs.
However, company posted 10% revenue growth along with sharp margin improvement in H1 FY17 (from
3.7% in H1 FY16 to 12.9% in H1 FY17). We believe company to continue the growth momentum and expect
to post 14% revenue cagr over FY16-19E mainly driven by its products business. We forecast 870bps margin
surge over the same period. Strong operational show would lead to 37% PAT cagr over FY16-19E. We expect
company to post Rs 25 EPS for FY19.

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Total Cash and cash equivalents as on Sep 30, 2016 were at Rs. 412cr which turns out to be Rs 127 per
share cash in the balance sheet. Company is sitting on cash to explore attractive inorganic opportunities. For
product companies like Nucleus, earnings could be lumpy. So, we value them on EV/Revenues and
EV/EBIDTA basis. Currently, Nucleus trades at 1x FY19E EV/Revenue and 6.2x FY19E EV/EBITDA. Different
companies have different prospects and different addressable markets. However, we find that Nucleus is
available at quite an attractive valuations compared to peers. If Payse innovation works at a larger scale,
Nucleus can be an enormous wealth creator.

We recommend investors to buy the stock at CMP and add on declines near Rs 225, with targets of Rs 328
and Rs 380 over the next 4-6 quarters, based upon ~1.6x FY19E EV/Revenues which implies 53% upside
potential from current levels.

Risks and concerns

Significant overseas presence exposes Nucleus to the risk of adverse forex fluctuations. Sharp rupee
appreciation could impact the companys revenues and margins significantly.

Company faces the risk of product liability claim in case of failure of product (as
represented to be suitable for customer requirement) or incorrect consulting advice. Further measures
to dissuade outsourcing of IT services by developed countries could lead to higher cost, thereby affecting
margins.

Companys competitors range in size from Fortune 100 companies to small, specialized singleproduct
businesses. In addition, it also competes with numerous smaller local companies in the various
geographic markets in which it operates. These competitive pressures may impact sales volumes, pricing
power, and/or increased operating costs, such as for marketing and sales incentives, resulting in lower
revenue, gross margins, and operating income.

Slowdown in the IT spends could slow down the growth of products business and in turn impact
companys revenue growth and margins (product is a high margin business).

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Financial Summary (Rs cr)

(Rs Cr) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Sales 346 353 349 384 434 520
EBITDA 72 65 30 50 64 90
Net Profit 64 65 32 51 63 82
EPS (Rs) 19.3 19 9.8 15.8 19.5 25.3
P/E 12.8 13.2 25.3 15.5 12.8 9.8
EV/EBITDA 7 7.9 18.3 11 8.7 6.2
RoE 17.2 15.5 7.1 10.8 12.3 14.5
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Products segment revenues trend Projects & Services segment revenues

450 140
400 120
350
100
300

Rs Cr
80

Rs Cr
250
60
200
40
150
100 20

50 0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

EBITDA Margin to witness continuous improvement

22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
%

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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H1 FY17 Revenues Split

%
12

32
17

15
25

India Asia Europe Middle East Others

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

FY16 Revenues Break up

%
14 19

16

12
39

India Asia Europe Middle East Others

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Income Statement (Consolidated) Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Rs.Cr FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Rs.Cr FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 346 353 349 384 434 520
SOURCES OF FUNDS
% Growth 17.9 2.0 -1.3 10.3 12.9 19.7
Share Capital- Equity 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4
Travelling Expenses 20 20 21 15 21 30
Reserves 365 406 425 463 504 565
S&A Expenses 73 66 71 65 72 89
Total Shareholder's funds 397 438 457 495 536 598
Employee Expenses 181 201 227 254 277 311
Total Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Expenses 274 288 319 334 370 430
Other Liabilities 12 5 7 7 7 7
Operating Profit 72 65 30 50 64 90
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 409 443 464 503 544 605
Margin % 19.2 18.4 8.5 13.0 14.8 17.3
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Depreciation 8 12 12 13 15 16
Gross Block 137 144 153 164 180 200
PBIT 64.1 53.4 17.9 37.2 49.6 73.4
Net Block 61 58 54 52 54 58
Margin % 18.5 15.1 5.1 9.7 11.4 14.1
CWIP 1 1 1 3 4 5
Other Income 19.6 33.3 25.9 27.7 31.7 36.4
Investments 224 170 245 288 309 336
PBT 84 87 44 65 81 110
Total Non-current Assets 285 228 300 343 367 399
Margin % 24.2 24.6 12.6 16.9 18.7 21.1 Debtors 42 85 86 92 104 125
Tax 19 22 11 13 19 27
Loans & Advances 59 42 39 46 65 69
Reported PAT 64.3 64.7 31.8 51.2 63.3 82.0 Cash & Equivalents 99 181 124 109 110 122
Margin % 18.6 18.3 9.1 13.3 14.6 15.8
Total Current Assets 199 307 249 247 280 315
% Growth 13.2 0.6 -50.8 61.0 23.5 29.6 Provisions 31 22 4 4 4 4
EPS (Rs.) 19.3 19.0 9.8 15.8 19.5 25.3
Other current liabilities 73 92 111 115 130 142
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Total Current Liabilities 105 113 115 120 134 146
Net Defered Tax 7 1 2 2 2 2
Other Assets 22 19 30 30 30 30
Net Current Assets 94 194 133 128 145 169
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 409 443 466 503 544 605
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Key Ratio (Consolidated)

Rs.Cr FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Key Ratios FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Opening Cash 112.0 98.8 180.6 124.2 108.6 110.4 Per Share data
Reported PBT 84 87 44 65 81 110 EPS (Rs.) 19.3 19.0 9.8 15.8 19.5 25.3
Non Operating Income 13.8 34.0 34.9 27 31.7 36.4 Growth (%) 13.2 -2.0 -48.2 61.0 23.5 29.6
Interest Expense 0 0 0 0 0 0 BVPS (Rs.) 123 135 141 153 166 183
Depreciation 7.9 12.0 12.2 12.8 14.6 16.2 Dividend/Share 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.5 7.8 9.5
Working Capital Changes 15 -18 4 -10 -16 -13 Return Ratios
Cashflow from operations (a) 92.7 47.0 25.3 40.4 48.2 76.8 ROA (%) 15.7 14.6 6.8 10.2 11.6 13.6
Capex -13 -7 -9 -11 -16 -20 ROE (%) 17.2 15.5 7.1 10.8 12.3 14.5
FCFF 106.1 54.4 34.1 51.1 64.2 96.7 ROCE (%) 21.0 20.8 9.8 13.6 15.8 19.4
Investments -69 54 -75 -44 -20 -27 Liquidity Ratios
Other Operating Income 19.6 33.3 25.9 27.7 31 35 Current Ratio (x) 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2
Investing Cashflow (b) -62 80 -58 -27 -5 -10 Quick Ratio (x) 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2
Debt Issuance /Payment 0.1 -6.9 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debt to Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax Expense -19 -22 -11 -13 -19 -27 Valuations Ratio
FCFE 38 120 -27 22 57 79 P/E (x) 12.8 13.1 25.2 15.7 12.7 9.8
Dividends -23 -19 -19 -25 -30 -36 P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4
Cashflow from financing (c) -41 -48 -28 -38 -48 -63 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 8.0 18.4 11.1 8.6 6.2
Net Cash flow -11.2 79.2 -60.4 -24.1 -5.1 2.8 EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research Dividend Payout 31.0 26.4 50.9 41.1 39.9 37.5
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Price Chart

325

275

225

175

125

75

25

Apr-16

Sep-16
May-16

Jun-16
Feb-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Nov-16
Dec-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

Aug-16
Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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Rating Chart

R HIGH
E
T
MEDIUM
U
R
N LOW
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15% &
LOW RISK - LOW RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
BLUE PRICE CAN FALL 20% IF INVESTMENT
RETURN STOCKS PRICE CAN RISE BY
OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
20% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
MEDIUM RISK - IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% &
RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
YELLOW HIGH RETURN PRICE CAN FALL 35% IF INVESTMENT
PRICE CAN RISE BY
STOCKS OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
35% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30% &
HIGH RISK - HIGH RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
RED PRICE CAN FALL 50% IF INVESTMENT
RETURN STOCKS PRICE CAN RISE BY
OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
50% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

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I, Kushal Rughani, MBA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No

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