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<a href=E n e r g y P o l i c y 4 9 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 7 3 1 7 3 9 Contents lists available at S c i V e r s e S c i e n c e D i r e c t Energy Policy journal homepage: w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / e n p o l Simulation of climate change impact on energy consumption in buildings, case study of Iran Gh.R. Roshan , J.A Orosa , T. Nasrabadi Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran Department of Energy and M.P., E.T.S.NyM. University of A Corun˜a, Paseo de Ronda 51, 15011 A Corun˜a, Spain Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, #23, zip code: 1417853111, Azin Avenue, Ghods Street, Enghelab Square, Tehran, Iran HIGHLIGHTS c The impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption is simulated. c Degree-day index is calculated in present and future scale. c Future climate changes and degree-day values are modeled. article info Article history: Received 22 February 2012 Accepted 11 July 2012 Available online 4 August 2012 Keywords: Climate change Degree-day Energy demand abstract The purpose of this research is to simulate the impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption in household cooling and heating systems using degree-day index. To this end, general circulation model has been applied to identify future climate changes and simulate degree-day values. The research findings show an increase of energy consumption for cooling in households in 2075. Also, with warm seasons prolonging and cold seasons shrinking in a year, the need for the continuous supply of energy consumption for air cooling and ventilation increases. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Energy consumption is one of the most important factors that indicate the economic and industrial status of countries; however, energy protection and conservation policy has become an impor- tant research subject in developed and developing countries, following the global energy crisis in 1970. Useful results have been obtained in recent years, thanks to these studies. For instance, while the increase in global primary energy consump- tions was 4.4% in 2004, energy consumption increased only 2.7% in 2005, representing a considerable decrease. Energy density (consumption per $ GDP) is decreasing continuously in OECD (Organization for European Economic Co-operation) and other countries ( Salta et al., 2009 ; Dombaycı, 2009 ; Lior, 2008 ). Abbreviations: MAGICC, Model for assessment of Greenhouse-gas induced climate change; SCENGEN, Global and regional climate scenario generator; GCM, General circulation models; IPCC, Intergovernmental panel on climate change; SRES, Special report emission scenario Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 98 21 61113183; fax: þ 98 21 66407719. E-mail addresses: ghr.rowshan@gmail.com (Gh.R. Roshan) , jaorosa@udc.es (J. Orosa) , tnasrabadi@ut.ac.ir , tnasrabadi@gmail.com (T. Nasrabadi) . Tel.: þ 98 9171350305. Tel.: þ 3498116700; fax: þ 34981167100. 0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. h t t p : / / d x . d o i . o r g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . e n p o l . 2 0 1 2 . 0 7 . 0 2 0 Climate change, impacting on buildings’ energy consumption, is strongly affected by population growth and development of buildings and industries. Nowadays, climatic changes are one of the main problems of the world. The researches show that the surface temperature of the earth will rise by approximately 1.4–5.8 1 C ( Delfani et al., 2010 ). The study done by Luterbacher et al. (2004) on European seasonal and annual temperature variations shows the coldest European winter has occurred in 1708 and the hottest summer in 2003. As a result of climatic changes, air humidity in cold seasons, cooling load, and uncomfortable air conditions in buildings have increased. For instance, moisture content in winter will increase by 15% by 2020s and by up to 25% by 2050s. In London, cooling degree-days have increased over 20% during 1976–1995 and by 2005 around 60%. These values will go up almost to 200% by 2080 ( Roberts, 2008 ; Delfani et al., 2010 ). The impact of climate changes on the energy consumption of a country for space heating and cooling depends on the current and future regional climate, the required thermal comfort inside buildings and technical building features such as thermal insula- tion quality and occupants’ habits. Quantitative projections of future energy consumption naturally depend on the key assump- tions and models used to construct future climate scenarios. In previous studies for the USA ( Rosenthal et al., 1995 ; Belzer " id="pdf-obj-0-31" src="pdf-obj-0-31.jpg">

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<a href=E n e r g y P o l i c y 4 9 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 7 3 1 7 3 9 Contents lists available at S c i V e r s e S c i e n c e D i r e c t Energy Policy journal homepage: w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / e n p o l Simulation of climate change impact on energy consumption in buildings, case study of Iran Gh.R. Roshan , J.A Orosa , T. Nasrabadi Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran Department of Energy and M.P., E.T.S.NyM. University of A Corun˜a, Paseo de Ronda 51, 15011 A Corun˜a, Spain Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, #23, zip code: 1417853111, Azin Avenue, Ghods Street, Enghelab Square, Tehran, Iran HIGHLIGHTS c The impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption is simulated. c Degree-day index is calculated in present and future scale. c Future climate changes and degree-day values are modeled. article info Article history: Received 22 February 2012 Accepted 11 July 2012 Available online 4 August 2012 Keywords: Climate change Degree-day Energy demand abstract The purpose of this research is to simulate the impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption in household cooling and heating systems using degree-day index. To this end, general circulation model has been applied to identify future climate changes and simulate degree-day values. The research findings show an increase of energy consumption for cooling in households in 2075. Also, with warm seasons prolonging and cold seasons shrinking in a year, the need for the continuous supply of energy consumption for air cooling and ventilation increases. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Energy consumption is one of the most important factors that indicate the economic and industrial status of countries; however, energy protection and conservation policy has become an impor- tant research subject in developed and developing countries, following the global energy crisis in 1970. Useful results have been obtained in recent years, thanks to these studies. For instance, while the increase in global primary energy consump- tions was 4.4% in 2004, energy consumption increased only 2.7% in 2005, representing a considerable decrease. Energy density (consumption per $ GDP) is decreasing continuously in OECD (Organization for European Economic Co-operation) and other countries ( Salta et al., 2009 ; Dombaycı, 2009 ; Lior, 2008 ). Abbreviations: MAGICC, Model for assessment of Greenhouse-gas induced climate change; SCENGEN, Global and regional climate scenario generator; GCM, General circulation models; IPCC, Intergovernmental panel on climate change; SRES, Special report emission scenario Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 98 21 61113183; fax: þ 98 21 66407719. E-mail addresses: ghr.rowshan@gmail.com (Gh.R. Roshan) , jaorosa@udc.es (J. Orosa) , tnasrabadi@ut.ac.ir , tnasrabadi@gmail.com (T. Nasrabadi) . Tel.: þ 98 9171350305. Tel.: þ 3498116700; fax: þ 34981167100. 0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. h t t p : / / d x . d o i . o r g / 1 0 . 1 0 1 6 / j . e n p o l . 2 0 1 2 . 0 7 . 0 2 0 Climate change, impacting on buildings’ energy consumption, is strongly affected by population growth and development of buildings and industries. Nowadays, climatic changes are one of the main problems of the world. The researches show that the surface temperature of the earth will rise by approximately 1.4–5.8 1 C ( Delfani et al., 2010 ). The study done by Luterbacher et al. (2004) on European seasonal and annual temperature variations shows the coldest European winter has occurred in 1708 and the hottest summer in 2003. As a result of climatic changes, air humidity in cold seasons, cooling load, and uncomfortable air conditions in buildings have increased. For instance, moisture content in winter will increase by 15% by 2020s and by up to 25% by 2050s. In London, cooling degree-days have increased over 20% during 1976–1995 and by 2005 around 60%. These values will go up almost to 200% by 2080 ( Roberts, 2008 ; Delfani et al., 2010 ). The impact of climate changes on the energy consumption of a country for space heating and cooling depends on the current and future regional climate, the required thermal comfort inside buildings and technical building features such as thermal insula- tion quality and occupants’ habits. Quantitative projections of future energy consumption naturally depend on the key assump- tions and models used to construct future climate scenarios. In previous studies for the USA ( Rosenthal et al., 1995 ; Belzer " id="pdf-obj-0-90" src="pdf-obj-0-90.jpg">

Simulation of climate change impact on energy consumption in buildings, case study of Iran

Gh.R. Roshan a ,1 , J.A Orosa b ,2 , T. Nasrabadi c ,n

a Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran b Department of Energy and M.P., E.T.S.NyM. University of A Corun˜a, Paseo de Ronda 51, 15011 A Corun˜a, Spain

  • c Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, #23, zip code: 1417853111, Azin Avenue, Ghods Street, Enghelab Square, Tehran, Iran

HIGHLIGHTS

  • c The impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption is simulated.

  • c Degree-day index is calculated in present and future scale.

  • c Future climate changes and degree-day values are modeled.

article info

Article history:

Received 22 February 2012 Accepted 11 July 2012 Available online 4 August 2012

Keywords:

Climate change

Degree-day

Energy demand

abstract

The purpose of this research is to simulate the impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption in household cooling and heating systems using degree-day index. To this end, general circulation model has been applied to identify future climate changes and simulate degree-day values.

The research findings show an increase of energy consumption for cooling in households in 2075. Also, with warm seasons prolonging and cold seasons shrinking in a year, the need for the continuous supply of energy consumption for air cooling and ventilation increases. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Energy consumption is one of the most important factors that indicate the economic and industrial status of countries; however, energy protection and conservation policy has become an impor- tant research subject in developed and developing countries, following the global energy crisis in 1970. Useful results have been obtained in recent years, thanks to these studies. For instance, while the increase in global primary energy consump- tions was 4.4% in 2004, energy consumption increased only 2.7% in 2005, representing a considerable decrease. Energy density (consumption per $ GDP) is decreasing continuously in OECD (Organization for European Economic Co-operation) and other countries (Salta et al., 2009; Dombaycı, 2009; Lior, 2008).

Abbreviations: MAGICC, Model for assessment of Greenhouse-gas induced climate change; SCENGEN, Global and regional climate scenario generator; GCM, General circulation models; IPCC, Intergovernmental panel on climate change; SRES, Special report emission scenario n Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 98 21 61113183; fax: þ 98 21 66407719. E-mail addresses: ghr.rowshan@gmail.com (Gh.R. Roshan), jaorosa@udc.es (J. Orosa), tnasrabadi@ut.ac.ir, tnasrabadi@gmail.com (T. Nasrabadi).

  • 1 Tel.: þ 98 9171350305.

  • 2 Tel.: þ 3498116700; fax: þ 34981167100.

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change, impacting on buildings’ energy consumption, is strongly affected by population growth and development of buildings and industries. Nowadays, climatic changes are one of the main problems of the world. The researches show that the surface temperature of the earth will rise by approximately 1.4–5.8 1C (Delfani et al., 2010). The study done by Luterbacher et al. (2004) on European seasonal and annual temperature variations shows the coldest European winter has occurred in 1708 and the hottest summer in 2003. As a result of climatic changes, air humidity in cold seasons, cooling load, and uncomfortable air conditions in buildings have increased. For instance, moisture content in winter will increase by 15% by 2020s and by up to 25% by 2050s. In London, cooling degree-days have increased over 20% during 1976–1995 and by 2005 around 60%. These values will go up almost to 200% by 2080 (Roberts, 2008; Delfani et al., 2010). The impact of climate changes on the energy consumption of a country for space heating and cooling depends on the current and future regional climate, the required thermal comfort inside buildings and technical building features such as thermal insula- tion quality and occupants’ habits. Quantitative projections of future energy consumption naturally depend on the key assump- tions and models used to construct future climate scenarios. In previous studies for the USA (Rosenthal et al., 1995; Belzer

732

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

et al., 1996), the UK (Pretlove and Oreszczyn, 1998) and, more recently, for Greece (Cartalis et al., 2001), climate change was found to have significant implications for energy consumption in buildings. To our knowledge, no corresponding study has, so far, been attempted for Iran. Undoubtedly, like in many different regions of the world, the climate change and global warming occurring in Iran could cause the vicissitudes of energy consump- tion in the country (Shakoor et al., 2008; Roshan et al., 2009,

2010a).

In Iran, like other rich countries of the world, some subsidies have been introduced for energy resources consumption, whereby people could use their national wealth at a lower cost. Such subsidies have increased energy consumption in the country, as the reports indicate the increase of demand for energy resources in such countries in the recent years. The total final energy consumption in Iran during the years 1967–2006 shows an upward trend which has reached 931.6 million from 49.5 Mbl of petroleum. In 2005, America ranked first in the world with a total energy consumption of 10,525 Mbl of petroleum and Iran ranked ninth with a consumption of 932 Mbl. According to the statistics announced by the studies office of British Petroleum Company, energy consumption in Iran is much more than the countries which are more developed than Iran. Based up this report, the average annual energy consumption in Iran is calculated as 155 Mt per year, equal to 420 Ml a day, and this country is ranked 13 in the world in this regard. However, it should not be forgotten that the countries which have more consumption in comparison to Iran are either developed countries or in the way to becoming one. Energy consumption per capita in Iran is very high, and according to Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum, it is 64% more than the world average. According to experts, about one fourth of this energy could be saved. Wastage of energy in Iran has led not only to direct financial losses but to environmental contamination also. According to a report of the International Monetary Fund, Iran is rated as second among countries which pay energy subsidies for 37 billion dollars. Iran’s energy consumption per capita for every person is more than five times as that of Indonesia and twice as much as that of China, a country whose population is 1300,000,000. On the other hand, in gas consump- tion, Iran stands third after America and Russia. Forecasts indicate that the gas consumption will reach 277 Bm 3 in 2012. With this consumption trend, Iran will become a big consumer in the future and more pressure will be put on the government. For instance, in 2009, the government has allocated a 134,000 million US dollars gas subsidy to domestic subscribers. It is only a part of the 900,000 million US dollars subsidies that the government grants to the subscribers every year. As the population increases, fossil fuel resources decrease, the pressure on the government for more energy subsidies increases, and environmental pollutions also increase. Climate changes and many other factors will necessitate the use of environmental potentials and developing new sources of energy in order to find a proper solution to supply the energy required for cooling and heating of residential places in Iran to reduce the negative effects of energy crisis which will surely afflict the societies worldwide in the future. Recent research works have showed that total ultimate energy consumption in Iran was 1033.32 MBOE in 2006 and that household and commercial sector has been the main consumer (418.47 MBOE) and the fastest-growing sector (7.2%) (Farahmandpour et al., 2008). In particular, about 38% of total energy that consumed in year 2001 has been used for space heating (Farhanieh and Sattari, 2006). Therefore, Iran must try to optimize energy consumption especially in the residential sector (Mohammadnejad et al., 2011). In this sense, different solutions were proposed by researchers; for exam- ple, using insulation is an alternative to avoid the energy loss and

changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% (Farhanieh and Sattari, 2006).

  • 2. Materials and methods

    • 2.1. Climate change models

To study bioclimatic conditions of the last decade, the data from climatological stations located in 43 zones of Iran, have been used for the purpose of forecasting and modeling temperature changes owing to increase in greenhouse gases. In this study, to predict the global warming effect, MAGICC and SCENGEN compound model was used. MAGICC consists of a set of interrelated simple models. This model uses some parameters as input in modeling process; the most important of which is climatic sensitivity. The regional and global SCENGEN is not only a climatic model, but it also includes results of many GCMs, as well as a set of global perceptional data and four sets of regional climate data (Kont et al., 2003). Calculations for Iran have been used for four IPCC-suggested scenarios. Iran is located between 25 and 40 degree latitude and 44 and 63.5 degree east longitude. Modeling on temperature changes, it could be divided into 43 geographical zones (Table 1). In the present research, 20 GCM models (Table 2) and a scenario called P50 which is the average of SRES scenario or emission scenarios have been used. The most significant input of these models is the rate of emission of greenhouse gases in the future eras, but a final determination of the rate of emission of greenhouse gases in the future eras is not possible. So different scenarios consisting of the quality of changes in these gases in the future have been offered which are called emission scenarios. The intergovernmental panel on climate change or IPCC offered new series of emission scenarios called SRES in 1988 (Arnella et al., 2004; Arnell, 2004; Parrya et al., 2004). In Table 3, some of the specifications of four index scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) in 2100 have been presented. In this assessment, Iran’s temperature data in the time inter- vals of 1961–1990, were chosen as the basic data and tempera- ture changes for the years 2000–2005 were studied based on the proposed scenario and the changes within the interval of the years 1961–1999, so that the proper model accords with the experimental data of temperature in the proposed years. In order to predict and model the temperature changes due to an increase in the greenhouse gases, we have used MAGICC/ SCENGEN software, version 5.3, which has been designed to be consistent with the fourth report of IPCC. The software is a coupled gas-cycle/climate model that includes the cycles of carbon, methane, nitrogen oxide and halocarbons together with a model for the radiative effects of aerosols. Details are given in the User Manual, which can be viewed at and downloaded from Web (Wigley, 2010). After testing the best model with Pearson correlation coeffi- cient, the changes in Iran’s temperature components were pre- dicted in the worldwide heating bed for the future decades of 2025, 2050 and 2075. Based upon these changes, the degree day index values were calculated and compared with those in the past and present period. Finally, according to the outputs, energy demand rates were calculated in the cooling and heating parts of Iran’s construction and the design of which has been provided for different periods.

  • 2.2. Structure of MAGICC and SCENGEN model

MAGICC is a model for assessment of gas-induced climate changes and is comprised of a set of simple interrelated models. This model makes use of some parameters as input in the

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

Table 1

733

The geographical coordinates of the zones studied in MAGICC and SCENGEN suggested model.

Zone

Latitude

Longitude

Provincial boundaries

37.5–40N

  • 1 42.5–45E

West of Turkey & north of Azerbaijan

37.5–40N

  • 2 45–47.5E

Eastern Azerbaijan

  • 3 47.5–50E

37.5–40N

Ardebil & west of Gilan

37.5–40N

  • 4 50–52.5E

West of the Caspian Sea, west of Gilan

37.5–40N

  • 5 52.5–55E

Northwest of Golestan

37.5–40N

  • 6 55–57.5E

Golestan

37.5–40N

  • 7 57.5–60E

Northern Khorasan

37.5–40N

  • 8 60–62.5E

North of Khorasan Razavi

35–37.5N

  • 9 42.5–45E

South of western Azerbaijan & east of Iraq

35–37.5N

  • 10 45–47.5E

North of Kurdistan, west of Zanjan, south of eastern Azerbaijan

35–37.5N

  • 11 47.5–50E

East of Zanjan, west of Ghazvin, north of Hamedan

35–37.5N

  • 12 50–52.5E

North of Esfahan, east of Arak, east of Ghazvin, Ghom, Tehran

  • 13 52.5–55E

35–37.5N

Mazandaran, west of Semnan

35–37.5N

  • 14 55–57.5E

North & east of Semnan, north of Yazd

35–37.5N

  • 15 57.5–60E

West of Khorasan Razavi

35–37.5N

  • 16 60–62.5E

East of Khorasan Razavi

35–32.5N

  • 17 42.5–45E

West of Kermanshah, west of Ilam, Baghdad

35–32.5N

  • 18 45–47.5E

North of Khuzestan, west of Lorestan, east of Ilam, south of Kermanshah & south of Hamedan

35–32.5N

  • 19 47.5–50E

East of Hamedan, west of Markazi, west of Ghom, north of Lorestan

35–32.5N

  • 20 50–52.5E

West of Esfahan

35–32.5N

  • 21 52.5–55E

East of Esfahan

35–32.5N

  • 22 55–57.5E

East of Yazd

  • 23 57.5–60E

35–32.5N

West of southern Khorasan

35–32.5N

  • 24 60–62.5E

East of southern Khorasan

32.5–30N

  • 25 45–47.5E

West of Khuzestan, south of Ilam

32.5–30N

  • 26 47.5–50E

East of Khuzestan

32.5–30N

  • 27 50–52.5E

Kohgiluyeh & Boyerahmad, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari, south of Esfahan

32.5–30N

  • 28 52.5–55E

Southeast of Esfahan, south of Yazd

32.5–30N

  • 29 55–57.5E

West of Yazd, north & northwest of Kerman

  • 30 57.5–60E

32.5–30N

Northeast of Kerman, south of southern Khorasan

  • 31 60–62.5E

32.5–30N

North of Sistan & Baluchestan

  • 32 45–47.5E

27.5–30N

West of the Persian Gulf, south of Khuzestan

  • 33 47.5–50E

27.5–30N

East of Persian Gulf, east of Bushehr

  • 34 50–52.5E

27.5–30N

Bushehr, east of Fars

  • 35 52.5–55E

27.5–30N

West of Fars

  • 36 55–57.5E

27.5–30N

Northwest of Hormozgan, southwest of Kerman

  • 37 57.5–60E

27.5–30N

West of Kerman, east of Sistan & Baluchestan

  • 38 60–62.5E

27.5–30N

West of Sistan & Baluchestan

  • 39 50–52.5E

25–27.5 N

A part of Persian Gulf Coasts, south of Bushehr

  • 40 52.5–55E

25–27.5N

South of Fars

  • 41 55–57.5E

25–27.5N

West of Hormozgan

  • 42 57.5–60E

25–27.5N

East of Hormozgan, south of Kerman, southwest of Sistan

  • 43 60–62.5E

25–27.5N

Southeast of Sistan Baluchestan

simulation process, the most important of which is climate sensitivity. The fact is that this model is used for the purpose of forecasting and simulating climate parameters with regard to these inputs for the future years and for different regions. Indeed, MAGICC is not a GCM model but it uses the data of some climate models to simulate the behavior of GCM models for the consid- ered region. In other words, this model is composed of a gas cycle and snow melting models which allows the user to determine the average global temperature changes and the datum level changes according to dispersion of greenhouse gases (Kont et al., 2003; Roshan et al., 2010a). SCENGEN is a regional and global scenario generator. This model is not only a climatic model but a simple database, including results of many GCMs, as well as a set of global perceptional data and four sets of regional climate data. In fact SCENGEN is simple software which allows the user to make use of the results of MAGICC model and the general circulation models. It also paves the way for the user to recognize the consequences using different presuppositions with regard to climate system parameters. The scenarios of this model are forecast from dispersion of greenhouse gases in the future, using different hypotheses in relation to human activities, policies, technology applications, etc. (Roshan et al., 2010b). By this

Table 2 General circulation models of the atmosphere used in SCENGEN 5.3 (Wigley,

2010).

The country founder of the model

Specialized name of SCENGEN

Norway

BCCRBCM2

USA

CCSM-30

Canada

CCCMA-31

France

CNRM-CM3

Australia

CSIRO-30

Germany

MPIECH-5

Germany/Korea

ECHO-G

China

FGOALS1G

USA

GFDLCM20

USA

GFDLCM21

USA

GISS-EH

USA

GISS-ER

Russia

INMCM-30

France

IPSL-CM4

Japan

MIROC-HI

Japan

MIROCMED

Japan

MRI-232A

USA

NCARPCM1

UK

UKHADCM3

UK

UKHADGEM

734

Table 3

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

SRES climatic scenario properties in 2100 as compared with those in 1990.

Scenario Specifications

1990

A1

A2

B1

B2

Population (in billions)

5.252

7.1

15.1

7

10.4

Carbon dioxide concentration (ppmv)

354

680

834

547

601

Mean changes of the earth’s average temperature (1C)

2.5

3.1

2

2.1

 

(1.7–3.7)

(2.1–4.4)

(1.4–3)

(1.5–3.1)

Universal increase at sea level (cm)

58

62

50

52

 

(23–101)

(27–107)

(19–90)

(20–93)

Universal GDP (10 12 $)

21

550

243

328

235

method, 20 GCM models can be used separately or in groups. In the case of selecting several GCM models, the program averages them and produces a compound model.

  • 2.3. Calculation of heating and cooling degree-days

Degree-day methods are simple, yet efficient and fairly reliable for quantifying the heating and cooling energy demands in a building. Estimations are accurate if the internal temperature, thermal gains and building properties are relatively constant. The severity of a climate can be characterized concisely in terms of degree-days. Various definitions of degree-days are in use (Christenson et al., 2006). In general, the need for heating and cooling according to the definition is the addition or subtraction of temperature daily means from a definite threshold in a definite period of the year and it is expressed in terms of degree-days. The threshold temperatures vary for different conditions and as a general rule the range of 19–28 1C is proposed for human comfort. Different ranges have been proposed by researchers for Iran’s climatic conditions among which the range of 18–24 degree is favorable (Khalili, 2004a, 2004b; Faraji et al., 2008). The definition of heating degree-days and cooling degree-days used in this study is taken from Iran standard (Khalili, 2004b). In order to estimate the amount of cooling needed in an N-day definite period, Eq. (1) was used.

CDD ¼ X ðT y 2 Þ y 2 ¼ 24

ð1Þ

In this equation, the CDD is the required amount of cooling and T, the daily mean temperature. The temperature threshold y 2 considered for Iran is 24 1C. In order to calculate the need of y 2 to heating, Eq. (2) must be employed.

HDD ¼ X ðy 1 T Þ y 1 ¼ 18

ð2Þ

In this equation, HDD is the need for heating on the basis of degree-day; T and y 1 have the same concept as in the previous equation and regarding Iran’s conditions 18 1C has been chosen as the temperature threshold. The heating degree-days (HDD) can be defined in accordance with Swiss (SIA Standard 381/3, 1982) as Eq. (3):

n

HDDðy i , y th Þ ¼ m k X ðy i y e, k Þ

k ¼ 1

ð3Þ

where y i is the internal temperature, y e,k the daily mean external temperature, y th the threshold temperature for heating, k is the day number in the year. In this sense, the annual heating demand of a building Q h may be written as Eq. (4):

Q h ¼ K tot HDD ZQ s

ð4Þ

where K tot is the total thermal losses due to transmission and infiltrations, Q s is the internal heat sources and solar gains and Z

Temperature 1.00 60.0 difference 0.90 Precipitation 40.0 0.80 difference 0.70 20.0 0.60 0.0 0.50 -20.0 0.40
Temperature
1.00
60.0
difference
0.90
Precipitation
40.0
0.80
difference
0.70
20.0
0.60
0.0
0.50
-20.0
0.40
0.30
-40.0
0.20
-60.0
0.10
0.00
-80.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Difference from temperature
average in celsius
Difference of precipitation
percentage

Years

Fig. 1. The temperature downfall oscillations in the country from 2000 to 2005 as compared with the long-term mean (1960–1999).

is an efficiency to factor in the share of Q s that serves to reduce heating demand. The ASHRAE (2009) definition is defined by Eq. (5):

n

CDDðy tc Þ ¼ m k X ðy e, k y tc Þ

k ¼ 1

ð5Þ

where y tc is the threshold temperature for cooling. Finally, it is interesting to note that, if building properties are assumed to be constant, the cooling energy demand is propor- tional to the number of CDD.

  • 3. Results and discussion

    • 3.1. The calculation and interpretation of real values in country’s

temperature

In this part, in order to determine the real oscillations and changes in Iran’s temperature during 2000–2005 as compared with the long-term mean of 1960–1999, we have used the climatic data of 80 synoptical and climatological stations in the country covering Iran’s range well. First of all, the long-term mean of temperature in these stations has been calculated for the study period of 1960–1999; then the temperature differences in each year of 2000–2005 have been estimated as compared with this long-term mean as we can see in Fig. 1. Fig. 1 shows the presence of inverse behavior between the temperature and downfall curves during the study period; we can see that the more (less) the temperature the less (more) the downfall is. These results relate to those regions of middle latitude and tropical zones having a downfall of the cold season because in these conditions, the more (less) the downfall is, the less (more) the temperature will be. Fig. 1 indicates that the highest increase in country’s tempera- ture as compared with the mean in 1960–1999 is equal to 0.92 1C in 2001 and it shows the lowest oscillation in temperature increase that is equal to 40% of a degree Celsius in 2004. So, what is obvious is that the country’s temperature has increased in this period though this increase is more in the first period than in the

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

735

second one. Downfall value has inverse oscillations with regard to temperature so that in the first study period this has decreased in comparison to the mean and increased in the later period. Unlike the temperature, downfall change has more oscillations and its prediction is more difficult. A remarkable point is that the highest percent of downfall increase as compared with the long-term mean in 2004 is 50.8% which is simultaneous with the lowest increase in country’s temperature and in turn the lowest percent of downfall, 71.3%, in 2001 is simultaneous with the highest increase in the country’s temperature during the study period.

  • 3.2. The correlation of results in real and simulated data

After the temperature increase values are simulated by each model for 43 regions individually and for the years of 2000–2005, the total mean of increase in the country’s temperature has been calculated for each model as shown in Table 4. With these data we can calculate the correlation coefficient between the real data of temperature and the simulated ones and

Table 4

The simulated data of temperature for 20 models of GCM for the study period of

2000–2005.

 

Periods

GCMs

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

BCCRBCM2

0.020

0.018

0.024

0.019

0.022

0.024

CCCMA-31

0.030

0.043

0.056

0.051

0.058

0.066

CCSM-30

0.040

0.048

0.054

0.049

0.062

0.064

CNRM-CM3

0.010

0.008

0.004

0.009

0.002

0.014

CSIRO-30

0.060

0.048

0.074

0.059

0.082

0.084

ECHO-G

0.010

0.013

0.047

0.011

0.018

0.016

FGOALS1G

0.010

0.008

0.024

0.019

0.012

0.024

GFDLCM20

0.040

0.048

0.054

0.049

0.052

0.054

GFDLCM21

0.030

0.033

0.037

0.041

0.038

0.046

UKHADGEM 0.020

0.028

0.034

0.029

0.042

0.034

GISS-EH

0.090

0.103

0.117

0.121

0.118

0.146

GISS-ER

0.160

0.173

0.187

0.191

0.248

0.226

INMCM-30

0.050

0.048

0.064

0.069

0.072

0.074

IPSL-CM4

0.020

0.043

0.047

0.041

0.048

0.046

MIROC-HI

0.040

0.038

0.044

0.039

0.042

0.054

MIROCMED

0.030

0.038

0.034

0.039

0.042

0.044

MPIECH-5

0.010

0.023

0.027

0.041

0.028

0.036

MRI-232A

0.060

0.078

0.074

0.089

0.092

0.084

NCARPCM1

0.000

0.003

0.004

0.001

0.008

0.006

UKHADCM3

0.030

0.028

0.034

0.029

0.042

0.034

use it as a simple and acceptable criterion to choose a proper model (Fig. 2). As shown in Fig. 2, the highest correlation coefficient between the temporal series of real and simulated data with r ¼ 0.89 relates to INMCM-30 model. Therefore, it is better to use the simulated results of INMCM-30 model in order to simulate the temperature components.

  • 3.3. Energy demand in buildings

    • 3.3.1. Time scale of the past and present

This part of the research includes the study on Iranian build- ings’ need for cooling and heating energy for the three time periods of past, present and future. The past time scale is related to the data of 1980s, the present time scale includes the data of 2005, and the future includes the time period of 2025, 2050 and 2075. According to the study conducted on the need for heating energy for 1980s, the results indicated that January, with average 421 degree days, had the highest rate in comparison with other months in meeting the need for heating energy, as we can see in Fig. 3. From among the months of a year, in July and August there was no need for heating energy since the weather was hot during this period. After these two months, it is September which stood second with regard to the need for heating energy with average

27 degree days. This rate has oscillations from 0 to 4282 degree days during a year for different regions of Iran, and its annual average for entire Iran were calculated to be 1449 degree-days. In this assessment, the maximum need was, respectively in region 1 or the northern parts of Azerbaijan, region 10 or the north of Kurdistan, west of

450 1980 2005 2075 400 2050 2025 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan.
450
1980
2005
2075
400
2050
2025
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan. Feb.
Mar.
Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep.
Oct.
Nov. Dec.
HDD index(Cal)

Fig. 3. Calculation of the Monthly Average of HDD Index for Iran during the 5 study periods.

1.00 coefficient of correlation 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 GCMs 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 Coefficient of
1.00
coefficient of correlation
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
GCMs
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
Coefficient of correlation in percent
BCCRBCM2
CCCMA-31
CCSM—30
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-30
ECHO---G
FGOALS1G
GFDLCM20
GFDLCM21
GISS—EH
GISS—ER
INMCM-30
IPSL_CM4
MIROC-HI
MIROCMED
MPIECH-5
MRI-232A
NCARPCM1
UKHADGEM
UKHADCM3

Fig. 2. The correlation coefficient values between the real and simulated data series of temperature for the study period of 2000–2005.

736

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

Zanjan and southeast of Azerbaijan, and region 3 which is Ardabil and west of Gilan. But regions 41, 43 and 40 which include the regions west of Hormozgan, southeast of Sistan and Baluchestan, and south of Fars Province can be also mentioned. In the same time period of 1980s, the maximum requirement for energy for cooling houses is observed in July for 214 degree days (Fig. 4). Among many months, January, February and December do not have any need for cooling energy as they are cold months. But, as the annual mean, 684 degree-days of energy is required for cooling houses in Iran (Fig. 5) and this rate oscillates between 0 and 2224 degree days. The minimum need for energy for cooling houses in a year is related to regions such as 3, 7 and 15 which include Ardabil, north of Khorasan, and regions of Khorasan Razavi Province, and its maximum is related to regions 33, 40, 32 and 43 including south of Khuzestan, south of Fars, east of Hormozgan, south of Kerman, southwest and southeast of Sistan and Baluchestan. As a continuation, this process has been carried out for the present time scale for the indicative year 2005, and the results show relative changes. But the monthly data reveal that it is January which needed the maximum energy of 378 degree-days to provide heating for houses as before. Likewise, the months June, July and August do not need energy for supplying heat since they are hot months. The interesting point is that in January, February, March, June, October and December the need for energy for heating has decreased and in April, May, September and November it has increased. But the result concluded from the difference of annual data is that the need for energy for heating has an average decrease of 56 degree-days in a year in Iran (Fig. 3).

  • 3.3.2. Future time scale

At this stage, the INMCM-30 model has been used to simulate the values of degree day index. According to the study of the need

350 1980 2005 2075 300 2025 2050 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan. Feb. Mar.
350
1980
2005
2075
300
2025
2050
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan. Feb.
Mar.
Apr. May
Jun. Jul. Aug.
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
CDD index(Cal)

Fig. 4. Calculation of the Monthly Average of CDD Index for Iran during 5 study periods.

HDD index(Cal) CDD index(Cal) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1980 2005 2025
HDD index(Cal)
CDD index(Cal)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
2005
2025
2050
2075
Years
Average of annual degree
day(Cal)

Fig. 5. Calculation of the Monthly Average of CDD and HDD Indices for Iran during 5 study periods.

for heating energy for the year 2025, it has been concluded that the month January with average 382 degree day has the max- imum need for heating energy in comparison with other months. Like before, for July and August there is no need for heating energy because they are hot months. But, according to the annual average calculated for the entire Iran, 1389 degree days is estimated to be needed for heating houses; in comparison with the previous periods, this rate has decreased (Fig. 3). From among different regions of the country, this rate of annual need for heating energy has oscillated from zero degree day related to regions such as 40, 41 and 43 to 3072 degree days related to region such as 3. With regard to the need for cooling energy for cooling houses, again December, January and February do not need cooling energy, and July with a need of 222 degree day cooling energy stands first. A comparison of these months with the previous periods indicates that in most months of the year the need for cooling energy is more, as we can see in Fig. 4. But what is understood from the annual average is the oscillation of outputs from 0 needs in the study region 3 which is Ardabil and west of Gilan to a 2032 degree-day-calorie need in region 32 or west of Persian Gulf and south of Khuzestan. In this study, regarding the increase of the need for cooling energy in most of the months, consequently its annual rate is decreased and its average is calculated to be 805 degree days for Iran as we can see in Fig. 5. In assessing the need for heating energy for the study period of 2050, it has been concluded that it is the month January which has been considered as the coldest month of the year with 354 degree day need for heating energy. But the significant point here is that the month September, except July and August which have no need for heating energy, has become one of the months which need no energy for heating buildings due to global warming. In this study period according to the annual average of 1218 heating degree days (Fig. 5), the need for heating degree day has decreased to 171 degree days as shown in Fig. 3. In this annual average, like before, the regions 40, 41 and 42 have no need for annual heating but it is again the region 3 which has the

maximum need for heating energy with an annual average of

2844 degree days. With regards to energy supply for cooling houses, the month December with an average of 1.55 degree-days of need for energy for cooling houses has the lowest need for the first time, and the month July has the maximum need of energy for cooling as before. But the annual average is 982 cooling degree days for the

entire Iran which has increased in comparison with the last period as we can see in Figs. 4 and 5. In the simulation of degree-day index values for the year 2075, it can be concluded that the month June has no need for heating energy consumption for the first time, and except for the months November and May, all the months show a decreasing trend in heating energy consumption. In this simulation, energy consump-

tion in heating section has decreased by 111 degree days in

comparison with the year 2050 and 342 degree days in compar-

ison with the 1980s. In 2075, the oscillations of the need for

energy consumption has a range from zero in regions 41, 40 and

42 to 273 in region 3 as shown in Figs. 3 and 5.

Now, regarding the simulation of the values of need for energy

consumption for cooling houses in the year 2075, it is concluded

that in all months of the year, without any exception, the cooling

energy consumption has increased in comparison with the previous

years, and the maximum value of this increment has been observed

in July with 299 degree days. The annual average of energy consumption in cooling section also, which has had an uptrend since 1980s, reaches its peak which is 1148 degree days in 2075; thus, the increase of consumption in comparison with the year 1980 has been 464 degree days; for details, see Figs. 4 and 5.

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

737

Zoning the Values of Need for CDD and HDD in the study periods of 1980, 2005, 2025, 2050 and 2075 is manifested in Figs. 6–11. Based on the findings of this study, the design of new buildings for these regions must consider this future outdoor mean tem- perature to define the wall insulation and the technical charac- teristic of HVAC systems. Furthermore, the feasibility must be considered to replace the actual HVAC system with passive methods like internal coverings, thermal inertia or air changes of indoor air (Orosa and Oliveira, 2009). In particular, this last method is based on the traditional Iranian architecture and represents, in combination with the other two, the most impor- tant way to reduce future energy consumption. Thereby, more actual sampled data that show the real behavior of indoor ambiences as a consequence of the different building construction characteristics must be developed to define a better solution for energy conservation. To help this process, future research works must be developed to validate present software resources like HAM-tools (Kalagasidis and Mattsson, 2005), to improve building design and maintenance suit climatic regions like in Iran.

4. Conclusion

This research work has showed a proper solution for providing the energy required for cooling and heating the residential places in Iran with regard to the energy crisis which will surely affect

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739 737 Zoning the Values of Need

Fig. 6. Zoning the Values of Need for CDD for the study period of 1980 (a) and 2005 (b).

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739 737 Zoning the Values of Need

Fig. 7. Zoning the Values of Need for CDD for the study periods 2025 (a) and 2050 (b).

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739 737 Zoning the Values of Need

Fig. 8. Zoning the Values of Need for CDD for the study period of 2075.

most of the societies worldwide. In this sense, results of this study indicate that the maximum monthly requirement for energy for heating in households is in January. However, with a passage of time, there will be a decrease in the required heating energy for most of the months. In assessing the energy required for cooling houses, it is observed that December needs cooling energy for the first time. From this result it can be concluded that the country’s

738

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

738 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739 Fig. 9. Zoning the Values

Fig. 9. Zoning the Values of Need for HDD for the study period of 1980.

738 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739 Fig. 9. Zoning the Values

Fig. 10. Zoning the Values of Need for HDD for the study periods of 2005 (a) and 2025 (b).

greatest problem in supplying energy in future is related to household cooling and air conditioning rather than heating. Besides, by expansion of hot seasons and limitation of cold seasons of the year, the need for energy consumption for cooling and air conditioning will continue. According to the processed data gained from 1980 to 2005 periods (Fig. 6), the most cooling energy demand is allocated to central and eastern parts of the country, while this maximum need is shifted towards south in

738 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739 Fig. 9. Zoning the Values

Fig. 11. Zoning the Values of Need for HDD for the study periods of 2050 (a) and 2075 (b).

2025, 2050 and 2075 periods (Figs. 7 and 8). The reason may be justified by the enhanced rate of Persian Gulf evaporation due to global warming within next decades. The excess water vapor would be entrapped by the high pressures within the intertropical con- vergence zone (ITCZ) on northern coasts of ROPME Sea area. Considering water vapor as a greenhouse gas, the gradual warming of the area in comparison with other ones would be confirmed. Regarding heating energy demand, the maximal values would be observed in northwestern, northeastern and western parts through next decades (Figs. 10 and 11). Thermal high pressures coming from Siberia and dynamic anticyclones from Scandinavia may play the key role in gradual temperature drop and simultaneously heating energy demand increase in mentioned areas. Finally, to solve this future problem, the feasibility to replace the actual HVAC system with passive methods based in the traditional Iranian architecture and a better building design based on new software resources must be considered in future research works.

Acknowledgements

The authors highly appreciate the three anonymous reviewers who provided excellent suggestions for the revision of the manu- script. Also, the provision of data and statistics by Iran Meteor- ological Organization (IRIMO) is acknowledged.

Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731–739

739

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