20163

2016719

, ,

3

(GI) 720162.6%2.5%
0.31.6%1.32.8%3.8%
5.0
2014 2015 2016 2017
4.5
2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7
4.0

1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7

3.5

1.6 1.5 2.8 3.6

%
3.0

4.3 3.8 3.8 4.4 2.5

5.0 2.0
4.5
4.5
1.5
4.0
3.5 1.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3.0
2.5 2015 2016 2017
(%)

2.5
2.0
2.0 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9
1.5
1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
1.0
0.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8
0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.6

World Overview, Global Insight Inc., July 15, 2016. 4


7.0

4.5

2.0

-0.5

2016Q1 2.09 0.02 1.67 2.85 1.83 -0.76 6.72
2016Q2 1.67 0.40 1.62 2.99 2.13 0.64 6.64
2016Q3 1.77 0.39 1.52 2.42 1.37 2.34 6.43
2016Q4 2.04 1.00 1.30 2.41 1.56 2.72 6.15
2015 2.43 0.60 1.58 2.61 2.01 0.65 6.93
2016 1.89 0.45 1.53 2.66 1.72 1.23 6.48
2017 2.44 0.65 1.11 2.82 1.74 1.84 6.20

20162015
2016GI1.23%51.36%0.132015
World Overview, Global Insight Inc., July 15, 2016. 5
 20152016
-6.28% 8.66%

7.84.1% -3.7-1.8%
1.11.3%
2.21.6% 1.61.5%

2.41.9% 2.62.7%
6.96.5% 0.60.5%

2.52.2% 0.61.2%
7.57.5%
-3.9-3.6% ASEAN 10

4.84.8 -1.3-0.5 2.52.7%

1.30.1% 5.04.1 7.06.9 3.02.4%
5.96.0 6.76.9
2.82.9 7.47.1
2.01.7 6.75.9

World Overview, Global Insight Inc., July 15, 2016. 6

 20166PMI
6ISMPMI1.953.2
55.757.054.749.250.450
6Markit(PMI)52.81.3
6PMI47.748.1
6PMI50.150.0
65
()
60

55 , 53.3
, 53.2
50 , 52.8
(), 50.0
, 48.1
45

40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7

14

11 , 10.1

, 4.9
5
, 3.8
, 3.6
, 3.4
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6
, 3.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
650.24.9%62.7%
510.1%
63.6%53.2%3.4%
53.84%0.023.96%
8
 CPI
%
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2016CPI20152.34.6%2016CPI2015
OECDCPI0.5%1.0%2016CPI5.4%
10.4%
CPI20144CPI2015
2016CPI1.2%0.4%
6CPI0.90%1-61.54
World Overview, Global Insight Inc., July 15, 2016 9
20152016
-0.40% 148.26%

-0.30.2%
1.11.8% 15.57.1%
0.00.8%
0.10.4%
0.70.9%
0.11.2% 0.8-0.3%
1.42.2%

2.72.9% -0.31.1%
4.95.2%

-0.5-0.8%

9.08.8%
4.66.7% 1.51.5%

0.30.7%

World Overview, Global Insight Inc., July 15, 2016. 10



11
 2016
520161-0.68%GDP
-1.52%429.5220162
1.47%1.06%
12

8
4.04
4
0.57 1.44 2.08
0.43
0
-0.80 -0.89 -0.68
-4

-8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 (2.06) 2013 (2.20) 2014 (3.92) 2015 (0.65 r) 2016 (0.84 f)

yoy saqr saar

(r) (p) (f)2016
:201520165272016
12

(%,)
12 10.63
10 GDP(yoy)
8 6.52
6 3.80 3.92
4 2.06 2.20
2 0.65 0.84
0
0.70
-2 -1.57
-4
-6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015r 2016f

20161 2015 2016

2015- 2016
1.69%0.65% 0.66 2015-0.66
2016 1 -0.34 0.73
-0.68%2

(r) (p) (f)2016

13
:201520165272016 13

201653209
16

1.95
2.pr
14
14

PMI PMI

20166PMI41.653.3%
50.0%
PMI56.3%55.7%
54.7%53.5%52.6%48.3%
PMI9.1
53.8 %4
6
3 2.5 50.0%
15
15

NMI NMI

2016623.851.7%
NMI
50.0%
NMI56.7%
55.4%54.2%54.2%53.3%50.2%
44.4%46.2%
41.9% 5.5
50.0%
16
16


20155(4.51%)(4.50%)
(-0.23%) (-1.69%)
(%)
20

15

10 , 4.51%
5 , 4.50

0
, 1.93
, -0.23%
-5
, -1.69%
-10

-15

-20
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
17

20165337.31.7%4.7%5.8%
19.3%(-8.3)
(-5.8%)(-4.1%)(-3.5%)(-3.1%)(-2.8%)

--(%)
30

20

10 , -2.8%
, -3.1%
0 , -3.5%
, -4.1%
-10
, -5.8%
-20
,
-30
-19.3%

-40
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
18
 (1/2)
10
1800
() 10
1600 8
1400 6
1200 4
1000 2
800 0
600 -2
400 -4
200 -6
0 -8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
10 - ()
120 30
100 20
80 10
60 0
40 -10
20 -20
0 -30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2013 2014 2015 2016
19
 (2/2)
()
50000 40

40000 20

30000 0

20000 -20

10000 -40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
=(-CPI) () ( ())
6 4.6
4 4.4
4.2
2
4.0
0
3.8
-2 3.6
-4 3.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
20
 (1/2)
1800
4,000
3,600 1600
3,200 () 1400
2,800 1200
2,400 1000
2,000 800
1,600 600
1,200 400
800 200
400 0
0 -200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
5()511,7982,000197.975 MICRON TECHNOLOGY B.V.
333,3913,000
100

240 30
200 ()
160 15
120
80 0
40
0 -15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016
21
 (2/2)
- ()
1400 100
1200 80
1000 60
800 40
600 20
400 0
200 -20
0 -40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2013 2014 2015 2016

- ()
3000 45

2500 30

2000 15

1500 0

1000 -15

500 -30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2013 2014 2015 2016
22
 ()
(%)--
10.0 3.55 %
()
0.0
-0.13 -1.70-2.75 2015 2016
-10.0
-8.42
-8.17 -7.46 -6.62 -4.65
-9.17
-20.0
-14.20 -8.28 -7.18
-10.14 -4.40
-30.0 2015 2016 -24.17 1.95 0.90
3.02 -3.04
-6.56 6.40
%,
15
&--
120
()--A1 -(%)
100
10
()--A2 -(.)(%)
80
5 A1A2() -(%)
60
-(%)
0 40
20
-5
0
-10 -20
-15 -40
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 -60
2014 2015 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016
23
23
 ()

(%)-- %
20.0 14.19 ()

0.37
3.93 2015 2016
0.0 -11.85 -6.35
-1.80 -2.45 -3.94 -2.47
-20.0 -24.06 -11.53 -13.77 -17.50 -12.45 -14.10
-3.04 0.60
2015 2016
-40.0 -37.99 1.79 5.34
-6.94 -3.10
-38.21 -30.90
%, &--
15
60
10 50
5 40
0 30
20
-5
10
-10 ()--A1
0
()--A2
-15 -10 -(%)
A1A2()
-20 -20 -(%)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 -(%)
-30
2014 2015 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016
24
24
 20161-5(%)
(%)
5.0 1.5 1.6
0.0
-5.0 -1.8 -2.2
-3.7 -4.5
-10.0 -6.9 -6.2
-9.0 -9.0 -10.5
-15.0 -11.5 -11.2
-16.5
-20.0

(%)
5.0
0.2 0.3
0.0
-5.0
-5.0
-10.0 -7.8 -6.6 -7.1 -6.7
-10.3 -8.8 -9.4
-15.0 -12.3 -10.9
-16.9
-14.6
-20.0

World trade atlas 25



26
 (1/4)

()()


1. GDP
20161GDP0.8%
1.1%5GDP(1.95%)
(GDP Now) 762016
Q2GDP2.4%5312.9%
0.5 (2013)
2. 56 5
1.1628.7

3. :6Fed201617
2.2%2.1%2.0%2.0%

62493.531
1624 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 27
27
 (2/4)

() Bureau of Labor Statistics

6
51.16
28.7 18.0 1.1
8
4.90% 4.80% 4.70%8
62.70% 62.70% 62.60%
2
(/) 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
201512
() 2.60% 2.70% 2.50%
34.4 34.4 34.4 534.4
CPI(6, ) 0.20%
5CPI30.3%
CPI(6, ) 0.20%
(6/) 0.60% 124
7ISMPMINMI51.3%52.9%53.2%56.5%1.9
3.612GDPNowFed2016
62.1%
28
28
 (3/4)

1.32241985
3%6/2393.53
95.572.2%
6/246/27 investing.com2016/7/11

3.01 % 2(6/246/27)
0
S&P Global Broad Market Index -2
2008 1.9 -4 -3.1
-6
-5.4 -5.7 -5.5
-8 -6.5

-10
-12
-9.8
-11
100(FTSE

500
100 Index)7116682.86

100
6275982.212%



29
29
 (4/4)

()
0.5%




passport
761.30711311.2894
7 6 12 %
Julius Baer1.16
7
1196.58

100.4713
20104

30
30
 (1/2)
--2015

Global InsightJul 15, 2016

9032.07332.185 31
 (2/2)

IHSBrian Jaskson


Kit Juckes

524
201581176
6.6962376
1.64%5.26%

23%
20177
81

32
32
Google


33
 (1/2)
2016
2015 2016 2017
1 2 3 4

GDP 3,764.3 3,856.4 4,002.1 4,124.9 15,615.8 15,747.7 16,030.4
-0.68 0.43 1.44 2.08 0.65 0.84 1.80
GNI(US$) 5,672.6 5,549.4 5,858.8 6,011.0 23,181.3 23,091.7 23,748.0
-4.18 -3.10 1.93 3.88 -1.14 -0.39 2.84
2,189.3 2,158.1 2,183.9 2,176.6 8,593.3 8,707.9 8,854.4
2.19 0.72 1.27 1.16 2.34 1.33 1.68
828.7 885.0 935.3 923.8 3,535.5 3,572.8 3,633.9
-0.50 0.89 1.38 2.32 1.23 1.06 1.71
722.2 719.8 776.8 690.0 2,894.4 2,908.7 2,966.1
-0.14 0.55 0.75 0.82 2.75 0.50 1.97
2,666.8 2,831.8 2,902.9 3,031.9 11,449.0 11,433.3 11,631.8
-4.06 0.45 1.26 1.62 -0.16 -0.14 1.74
2,456.5 2,578.8 2,604.1 2,638.8 10,240.8 10,278.1 10,428.2
-1.05 -0.37 1.11 1.72 0.92 0.36 1.46
34
34
 (2/2)
2016
2015 2016 2017
1 2 3 4

, 626.7 686.7 724.1 711.0 2,853.4 2,748.5 2,810.2
-12.11 -6.20 1.66 2.15 -10.86 -3.68 2.24
, 505.1 567.9 604.5 591.8 2,372.2 2,269.3 2,293.9
-13.99 -7.63 1.71 2.78 -15.83 -4.34 1.09
WPI(2011=100) 84.6 85.0 84.7 84.6 87.4 84.7 85.8
-4.99 -3.19 -2.89 -1.14 -8.85 -3.07 1.31
CPI(2011=100) 104.2 104.7 106.0 105.3 103.7 105.1 106.4
1.74 1.33 1.54 0.83 -0.31 1.36 1.23
M2 40,270.3 40,517.2 41,101.6 41,495.9 38,894.1 40,846.2 43,084.5
5.20 4.45 5.16 5.26 6.34 5.02 5.48
33.35 32.44 32.24 32.30 31.91 32.58 32.35
-5.56 -4.69 -0.10 1.67 -5.06 -2.11 0.72
90 0.40 0.30 0.28 0.25 0.58 0.31 0.33
,% 3.90 3.99 4.11 4.02 3.78 4.01 4.02
35
35

Fed

&

36
Fed
7

201411

6
QE

Fed6FOMC

37

IMF GDP

2016 2017 2018 2019
AA+ -0.21 -0.49 -0.06 0.05
USA
AA Canada
-0.06 -0.17 0.00 0.04
-0.15 -0.49 0.16 0.28
Mexico -0.22 -0.55 0.00 0.09
France -0.32 -0.96 -0.37 -0.08
Germany -0.45 -1.03 -0.17 -0.07
UK -0.38 -2.17 -0.99 -0.51
EU28 -0.32 -0.99 -0.30 -0.09
China -0.43 -0.34 0.08 0.14
Hong Kong -0.03 0.09 -0.36 -0.31
India
-0.07 -0.30 -0.08 0.12
Japan -0.28 -0.57 0.02 0.10
(Brexit)South Korea 0.29 -0.27 -0.31 -0.04
(1) TaiwanGDP 0.06 0.16 0.00 0.01
0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01
(2)() 0.02 -0.12 0.10 0.04

(3)/FDI -1.87 -1.77 0.54 0.86
-0.39 -1.15 0.38 0.49
-1.22 -2.24 0.84 0.80 38

Brent (CRB Index)
120 330
310
100
290
270
80
250
60 230
210
40 190
170
20 150
Jan

Jul
Oct
Jan

Jul
Oct
Jan

Jul
Oct
Jan

Jul
Oct
Jan

Jul
Oct
Jan

Jul
Oct
Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 0 1 2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(111.65) (108.64) (99.02) (52.35) (42.87) f (51.83) f 2014 2015 2016

6 7 52.51 50
CRB 1 20 156.32 6 30 192.57 23.2%

EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 7, 20162016/7/5Investing.com 39

2005~200748.5%
2016-9.1%-4.4%
-1.6%
2014112016584.1
6.4%201513.9%
201664.5%23.1%66.6%
12.6%10.6%13.7%6.4%

%
70 64.96
65

60
55 54.66
50
45
45.34
40
35.04
35
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


40
40

201616.7%20166.5% (Global
Insight 20166)
BIS 20154GDP2010
186.9%254.8%210.4% (
170.8%39.5%)44.4%
GDP GDP
39.5
200 40
170.8 2007 2015Q4
2007 2015Q4
150 30 25.5
98 21
19
100 20 16.6 16.8
13 14 15.6
59 56.9 50.6 50.1 11 11 11 10.1 11
42 42
50 25 31 10
14 22.9 15 25.3
0 0




(BIS) 41

vs.vs.
vs.
20167 20169


20167
20169
201611
ISIS 20167

20169

20173

20167
20164

42


43