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Spatial Electric Load Analysis for Substation Siting and Load Balancing

At United Power, the engineering and GIS groups were tasked


with answering the following question, Will we have the
infrastructure to support future demand in 5 or 10 years? We
turned to spatial technologies to provide management with an
accurate and detailed GIS-generated load density forecast. Demand
and energy readings from CIS were integrated with GIS to produce
base grids for summer and winter peaks. The analysts combined base
load grids with 2 forecast sources to produce long-range forecast
raster grids. The complex analysis process was performed with
multiple Model Builder models for consistency and repeatability.
ESRIs Spatial Analyst extension performed raster analysis. By
maintaining a spatial history of power consumption, accurate data is
readily available for a plethora of statistical studies and testing what-
if scenarios. Using GIS technologies for planning purposes increases
forecast accuracy and efficiency and creates a roadmap for future
land and ROW acquisitions.
Spatial Electric Load Analysis for Substation
Siting and Load Balancing

David Hollema GIS Analyst


Jared Weeks Electrical Engineer

United Power, Inc.


Brighton, Colorado

ESRI EGUG 2008


Todays agenda

Who we are
Long range forecast goals
Spatial load analysis basics
Components of spatial load forecasting
Load center prediction
Results and looking ahead
United Power Facts
Rural electric
cooperative
headquartered in
Brighton, CO
Incorporated in
October of 1938
Wires hot in 1940 to
750 customers
Nearly 65,000
customers today
covering 900 square
miles
Historically fast
growing up to
5000 new accounts
per year
Among the top 10
fastest growing
coops nationwide
Long range forecast goals and tasks

Spatially project coincidental peak load over the


next 10 years
Define substation
influence areas
Forecast and locate
future load centers for
substation placement
Determine substation transformer
upgrades
Update every 3 years (modular)
What is spatial load analysis?

A process of looking at historical electric power


consumption with a spatial (e.g. mapping) component
Seasonal peak focus
Demand (kW) or energy (kWh)
Typically includes forecasting for substation siting
Change detection analysis
Temporal study
Used to optimize current electric distribution system
Monthly
MonthlyCoincident
CoincidentPeak
PeakDemand (kW)
Demand(kW)

0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
19 99

0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
96 6

1
19 99
97 7

1
19 99
98 8

1
19 99
99 9

2
20 00
Monthly

00 0

2
20 00
01 1

2
20 00
MonthlyDemand

02 2

2
20 00
03 3
Demand--1998

2
1998to

20 00
04 4
NO SPATIAL COMPONENT

2
20 00
to2008

Summer Peak

05 5
2008

2
20 00
06 6

2
20 00
07 7

2
Winter Peak

20 00
08 8

2
20 00
09 9
Summer Peak Demand Linear Forecast
Summer Peak Demand Linear Forecast

600000
600000

500000
500000
NO SPATIAL COMPONENT
400000
Peak Demand (kW)

400000
Peak Demand (kW)

300000
300000

5yr trend
200000 5yr trend
200000 Historic
Historic

100000
100000

0
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Spatial Load Forecast Approach 3 components

1. Base Map 2002


2002

Historical snapshot of peak seasonal load


Peak load density map

2. Metrostudy Data (www.metrostudy.com)


Provider of housing data
Used to forecast residential growth

3. Point Loads
Internal knowledge of future large
commercial loads from district reps
Base map preparation
need to know where youve been to know where youre going

Meter Reading Extraction

Load Table Preparation

Must be repeatable and modular!

Spatial Join

Rasterization

Base Map Preparation


Meter Reading Extraction

Primary input for entire


analysis
Interested in 1 moment in
time with coincident
peak demand, settle for Meter Read-type Breakdown

30 day data (billed 10%

monthly)
Oracle view used to Manual Read
Carrier Line AMR
extract CIS data to SDE 35% 55% Drive-by AMR

instance
Revolving billing cycle
makes capturing monthly
peak difficult

Base Map Preparation


SDE Oracle view into CIS database
SELECT MAX(BI_CONSUMER.BI_ACCT) AS ACCT_NBR,
MAX(BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_SRV_STAT_CD) AS SRV_STAT_CD,
/* BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_ADDR_TYPE,*/
MAX(BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_SORT_NAME) AS NAME,
MAX(BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_LNAME) AS LAST_NAME,
MAX(BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_FNAME) AS FIRST_NAME,
BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC AS SERVLOC,
/* BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_CUR_HIST_SW, */
MIN(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_RATE_SCHED), CIS GIS
MAX(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_PRES_READ_DT) AS READ_DATE,
SUM(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_USAGE) AS KWH,
MAX(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_BILL_DMD_HIST) AS DEMAND_KW,
MAX(BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_REV_YRMO)
/* BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_PRES_MTR_RDG AS KWH */

FROM (((((CIS07022.BI_CONSUMER@CIS.GOTHAM BI_CONSUMER INNER


JOIN CIS07022.BI_AR@CIS.GOTHAM BI_AR ON BI_CONSUMER.BI_ACCT=BI_AR.BI_ACCT)
INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1@CIS.GOTHAM BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1
ON BI_CONSUMER.BI_ACCT=BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_VWN_CO_ACCT)
INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_TYPE_SERVICE@CIS.GOTHAM BI_TYPE_SERVICE ON
(BI_AR.BI_ACCT=BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_ACCT) AND
(BI_AR.BI_TYPE_SRV=BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_TYPE_SRV))
INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_HISTORY@CIS.GOTHAM BI_HISTORY ON
((BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_ACCT=BI_HISTORY.BI_ACCT) AND
(BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_TYPE_SRV=BI_HISTORY.BI_TYPE_SRV))
AND (BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR=BI_HISTORY.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR))
INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_SRV_LOC@CIS.GOTHAM BI_SRV_LOC ON
BI_TYPE_SERVICE.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR=BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR)
INNER JOIN CIS07022.BI_HIST_USAGE@CIS.GOTHAM BI_HIST_USAGE ON
((((BI_HISTORY.BI_ACCT=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_ACCT) AND
(BI_HISTORY.BI_TYPE_SRV=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_TYPE_SRV)) AND
(BI_HISTORY.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_SRV_LOC_NBR))
AND (BI_HISTORY.BI_HIST_CD=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_HIST_CD))
AND (BI_HISTORY.BI_BILL_DT_TM=BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_BILL_DT_TM)

WHERE BI_CONSUMER_VIEW_1.BI_ADDR_TYPE=N' '


AND BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_CUR_HIST_SW=N'Y' AND BI_HIST_USAGE.BI_REV_YRMO=200807
AND BI_RATE_SCHED NOT IN ('SC0','SC1','SC5') --removes Golden Aluminum (fed off transmission) and Frederick/Evanston area primary meters
--such as 3236-2652-0 and 3224-4552-0 (double-counted load)
AND SUBSTR(BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC,5,1) !='6'
AND BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC !='333305250' --removes Spindle Hill Energy Peak Plant fed off transmission

GROUP BY BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC
Base Map Preparation
Base Map Preparation
Load table preparation

Engineering calculation fields added


Some meters billed by usage (kWh), others by
usage and demand (kW)
Estimate coincident peak kW using kWh
Monthly Demand & Energy- July 1998 to July 2008
400 160
Thousands

Millions
Monthly Coincident Peak Demand

Monthly Coincident Energy (kWh)


350 140

300 120

250 100
(kW)

200 80

150 60

100 40

50 Demand (kW) 20
Energy (kWh)
0 0
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008
Base Map Preparation
Energy (kWh) to Coincidental Power (kW)
1
Peak Power -
2
3
Energy Average Power Peak Power Coincidental

3.5
Peak Load - Noncoincidental 30

Average _ Load
Peak _ Power Noncoincidental=
3 kWh LF Energy
Average _ Power = Biling _ Period
25
Peak _ PowerCoincidental = CF *Hours
Peak _Biling
Power
_ PeriodNoncoincidental

2.5
20

2
Peak Load - Coincidental

Energy (kWh)
Power (kW)

15

1.5

Average Power 10
1

5
0.5
Typical United
Power System
0 Peak 0
00

00

00

00

00

0
:0

:0

:0
:0

:0

:0

:0
0:

2:

4:

6:

8:

10

12

14

16

18

20

22
Base Map Preparation
Understanding Load Factors and Coincident Factors

3.5
3.5
3 .20
3 .20

3
3

2.5
2.5
C oin cid ent Fac tor ( CF ) = .5
C oin cid ent Fac tor ( CF ) = .5

Lo ad Fa cto r (L F) = .3 2
2 Lo ad Fa cto r (L F) = .3 2
Power (kW)

2
Power (kW)

1 .6 0
1 .6 0
1.5
1.5

1 .04
1 .04 A v era ge P o wer
A v era ge P o wer
1
1

0.5
0.5

0
0
:0 0

:0 0

:0 0

:0 0

:0 0

:0 0
2 : :0 0

4 : :0 0

:0 0
0: : 00

6: : 00

8: : 00

1 2 2: 0

1 4 4: 0

20 0 : 0

2 2 2: 0
10 0 :0

16 6: 0

18 8: 0
0

0
00

00

0
00

00

00
0

2
Tim e ( hr)
Tim e ( hr)

Base Map Preparation


Use the most accurate sources of information

Residential
Peak _ PowerCoincidental R = LF * Average _ Power * CF
Industrial
Peak _ PowerCoincidental I = Peak _ Power * CF

LF
Peak Power -
Energy Average Power Peak Power Coincidental

CF

Base Map Preparation


Load table preparation ModelBuilder model

Base Map Preparation


Load table preparation ModelBuilder model
continued

Base Map Preparation


Base Map Preparation
3307-1713-0 3307-2013-0 S
3307-1213-0 3307-1313-0 3307-1513-0 3307-1813-0 3307-2213-0 HEN 3307-2513-0 3307-2613-0
A

D
3307-1713-0 3307-2013-0
3307-2012-0 S ND

AR
3307-1213-0 3307-1313-0 3307-1513-0
3307-1612-1 3307-1813-0 3307-2213-0 HEN OAH 3307-2513-0 3307-2613-0
3307-2612-0
AN ST

D
LEV
3307-1512-1 3307-1812-1 3307-2012-0 3307-2212-1 DO RE

AR
3307-1312-1 AH ET 3307-2612-0
3307-1612-1 3307-1912-0

OU

LEV
3307-1512-1 3307-1812-1 3307-2212-1 ST
3307-1312-1 3307-1512-0 3307-1612-0 RE

HB
3307-1812-0 3307-1912-0 3307-2212-0 3307-2412-0 E
3307-2512-0T

OU
3307-1312-0

Spatial Join
3307-1512-0 3307-1612-0 3307-1911-1

NC

HB
3307-1812-0 3307-2212-0 3307-2412-0 3307-2512-0

+
3307-1312-0 3307-1511-0 3307-1611-1 3307-1811-0

RA
3307-1911-1 3307-2111-0 3307-2411-0

NC
3307-1311-0 3307-2611-0
3307-1511-0 3307-1611-1 3307-1911-0

AIN
3307-1811-0

RA
3307-1611-0 3307-2111-0 3307-2411-0
3307-1311-0 3307-1411-0 3307-1711-0 3307-2611-0

VR
3307-1911-0 3307-2310-0 3307-2410-1

AIN
3307-2110-1
3307-1310-0 3307-1411-0 3307-1611-0 3307-1910-1 3307-2510-1

INT
3307-1711-0

VR
3307-2310-0 3307-2410-1
3307-1410-13307-1510-1 3307-1710-0 3307-2110-1
3307-1310-0 3307-2410-0

SA
3307-1910-1 3307-2510-1

INT
3307-1210-0 3307-1510-1 3307-2110-0 3307-2210-0
3307-1410-1 3307-1910-0
3307-1710-0 3307-2410-03307-2510-0

SA
3307-1410-0 3307-1510-0 3307-2110-0 3307-2210-0
3307-1210-0 3307-1709-1 3307-1910-0 3307-2510-0
3307-1209-1 3307-1410-0 3307-1510-0 3307-1809-1 3307-2109-1 3307-2209-0 3307-2409-0
3307-1709-1 3307-2509-0
3307-1209-1 3307-1409-0 3307-1609-0
3307-1709-0 3307-1809-1 3307-2109-1 3307-2209-0 3307-2409-0
3307-2309-0 3307-2509-0
3307-1209-0 3307-1409-0 3307-1609-0 3307-1809-0 3307-2109-0 3307-2208-1
3307-1709-0 3307-2508-0
3307-2309-0
3307-1209-0 3307-1408-0 3307-1608-0 3307-1708-0 3307-1809-0 3307-2109-0 3307-2208-1
3307-2508-0
3307-1208-0 3307-2308-0

GIS + iVUE load


3307-1408-0 3307-1608-0 3307-1708-0 3307-1808-1 3307-2108-0 3307-2208-0 3307-2408-0
3307-1208-0 3307-1408-1 3307-1708-1 3307-2308-0
3307-1808-1
3307-1808-0 3307-2108-0 3307-2208-0 3307-2408-0
3307-1508-0
3307-1207-0 3307-1408-1 3307-1708-1 3307-2107-0
3307-1508-0 3307-1808-0 SANDY RIDGE COURT 3307-2407-0
3307-1207-0 3307-2107-0
3307-1207-1 SANDY RIDGE COURT 3307-2407-0
3307-2007-0
3307-1207-1
3307-1306-0 3307-1406-0 3307-1506-0 3307-1606-0 3307-1706-0 3307-1906-0 3307-2306-0 3307-2406-0
3307-2106-0
3307-2206-1

data + vector
3307-1206-0 3307-1606-1 3307-1806-0 3307-2007-0
3307-1306-0 3307-1406-03307-1506-0 3307-1606-0 3307-1706-0 3307-1906-0 3307-2306-0 3307-2406-0
3307-2106-0
3307-1206-0 3307-1606-1 3307-1806-0 3307-2206-1
SAGE STREET
SAGE STREET

3307-1205-0 3307-1405-0 3307-1705-0 3307-1905-0 3307-2005-0 3307-2105-0 3307-2305-0 3307-2405-1 3307-2605-0


3307-1505-1
3307-1805-0

grid
3307-1305-0
3307-1205-0 3307-1505-0 3307-1605-0 3307-2205-0 3307-2505-0
3307-2405-0 3307-2405-1
3307-1405-0 3307-1505-1 3307-1705-0 3307-1905-0 3307-2005-0 3307-2105-0 3307-2305-0 3307-2605-0
3307-1305-0 3307-1505-0 3307-1605-0 3307-1805-0 3307-2205-0 3307-2405-0 3307-2505-0

3307-2003-0 3307-2303-0
3307-2003-0 3307-2303-0

Summarizes for
each grid cell,

+
number of
customers, usage
(kWh), demand
(kW), and
coincident peak
demand (kW) 250, 500, and
1000 ft grid cells

Base Map Preparation


Spatial join ModelBuilder model

Base Map Preparation


Spatial join ModelBuilder model continued

Base Map Preparation


Rasterization

ArcToolbox tool
Polygon to Raster
converts vector
polygon feature vector
class to geotif
Raster files are
much easier to
analyze,
manipulate, and
perform algebraic
computations
ESRIs Spatial
Analyst used for raster
raster manipulation

Base Map Preparation


Raster Results
Berthoud

Gilcrest

Summer - July
Mead

Platteville

Hygiene

Longmont

2007 Peak Demand


Firestone
Keenesburg
Niwot
Frederick
Dacono
Fort Lupton Hudson

Erie

Valmont Wattenberg

Boulder Lochbuie
Lafayette
Brighton
Winter - January Louisville

Nederland
Marshall Superior
Eldora
Thornton
Pinecliffe Eldorado Springs
Wondervu Crescent Eastlake
Broomfield Henderson
Rollinsville
East Portal

Northglenn

Denver International Airport


Commerce City
Federal Heights
Leyden
Westminster Dupont
Western Hills Adams City

Central City Coincident


Arvada Demand (kW) 101 - 115
-9 - 0 116 - 132
Empire
Golden
1 - 20 Wheat Ridge 133 - 150 Bennett
Edgewater
151 - 250 Watki ns
21 - 35
0 5 10 Miles 251 - 500
36 - 55
N 56 - 70 501 - 1,000
71 - 85 1,001 - 20,000
86 - 100 20,001 - 40,000

Base Map Preparation


2002 2003 2004

2005 2006 2007

2008
2002-2008 coincident peak timeline

Base Map Preparation


2002 versus 2008 coincident peak Plains territory

2002
2002 2008
2008

Base Map Preparation


Metrostudy Data
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,500
Closings

4,000
NumberofofClosings

4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500 Function
FunctionfitfittotoAnnual
Annual
2,000
2,000 averages
Number

1,500 averages
Rolling
1,500 RollingAnnual
AnnualClosings
Closings
1,000
1,000
500
500
00
4Q03
4Q03 4Q04
4Q04 4Q05
4Q05 4Q06
4Q06 4Q07
4Q07 4Q08
4Q08 4Q09
4Q09 4Q10
4Q10 4Q11 4Q11 4Q12
4Q12 4Q13
4Q13 4Q14
4Q14 4Q15
4Q15
Quarter
Quarter(Q)
(Q)

Survey of subdivision data


Updated quarterly
Spatial reference
Annual closings fit to a 5 year sine wave
Metrostudy Forecast
Metrostudy 2017 forecast
Berthoud
Berthoud
Gilcrest MetroStudy provieds point data

60

60
Gilcrest

Mead
Mead
Platteville


66
Platteville
Circular shapes are from
ene
ene
66

Longmont
Longmont

85 multiplying the estimated area
85



25 Firestone of a lot by the number of lots
wot


25 Firestone
Frederick
Keenesburg
Keenesburg
wot 287
287 Frederick
Dacono
Dacono

52 Fort Lupton
Fort Lupton
Hudson
Hudson
and converting it into the area

52
Erie
Erie
Wattenberg
of a circle.
Wattenberg
Lochbuie
Lafayette Lochbuie
Louisville
Lafayette
42 Louisville

470
7

7
Brighton
Brighton

76

76

uperior 42
uperior

470

Thornton
Future platted subdivisions
Thornton


Broomfield
Broomfield
Eastlake
Eastlake
Henderson
Henderson forecasted to go online based on


121
Northglenn
Northglenn
44
44 Denver International Airport onsite activity.
en

121
Federal Heights 2
2

Commerce City


Commerce City
Denver International Airport

en

95
95
Federal HeightsDupont
Westminster
Westminster Dupont

Qtr Lot Future Vacant Survey Equip Street


Prelim Record Excavation
Active Front Lot Land Stakes on Site Paving
Future 0'-80' 4,800 4,257 543 0 0 543 4,257 0
Future 0'-0' 400 400 0 0 0 0 0 400
Future 70'-80' 104 0 104 0 0 0 104 0
Future 0'-0' 429 429 0 0 429 0 0 0
Future 0'-0' 952 952 0 952 0 0 0 0
Metrostudy Forecast
Point Loads

Information gleaned by the in-house staff about


large commercial/industrial customers
3-5 year accuracy
Spatially represented
Forecasted annually

Point Load Forecast


Point loads 2007 forecast
Berthoud
Gilcrest


34

60

WCR 34 & HW 25 - 220 LLC


Waste Water Treatment Plant 0kW
500kW

Mead High Rise Aurora Dairy Platteville Semcrude


500kW 2000kW
500kW
Hygiene
Mead H.S.
Life Bridge 750kW
66


Hotels
Longmont
500kW
Warehouse
300kW
750kW


85 Anadarko No. 2
40000kW
Pioneer Village
1748kW
Roggen

Suncor Energy Upgrade


THF Firestone AVA Solar 0kW Anadarko No. 1
1000kW 10000kW
10000kW
Firestone

36
Niwot
287

25

Frederick
Hudson Correctional F acility
Boulder Scientific
Keenesburg



119 Dacono
Fort Lupton
1600kW
Hudson
3000kW
Prospec t Valley

Denver Water Pump Facility


52

Erie 2000kW
Vestas
Valmont Wattenberg 18000kW

15 7 Palisade Park
LEED's Manufacturing
Boulder 7
Lafayette
2000kW Mc Whinney
7000kW
2500kW

Northland Village PUD Adams County Qt House


Louisville Brighton


42
470

5000kW 1800kW

Marshall Superior
2
Thornton Aspen Reserve Adams Crossing

79
Eldorado Springs 372kW 2375kW
Broomfield Eastlake
Henderson

93



128
Northglenn
Walmart
Otho Stuart 540kW

44 0kW



72


121
Federal Heights South Adams Water - Pumping Station
Brighton High school No. 3 Denver International Airport
500kW
Leyden 1192.5kW

95 Westminster Dupont

Point Load Forecast


Map Algebra Forecast Process

2007 Base Map

Metrostudy

+ Point Loads

+
x (scale factor
dependent
on year)
Explanation of scale factor

Scale factor based of a 700


700
Linearly Trended Grow th
linear trend of
604
600 Linearly Trended Grow th 604
600 Hybrid Forcast (Plains)
Hybrid Forcast (Plains)
Metrostudy - pre-intersect w ith grid
Metrostudy - pre-intersect w ith grid

historic data. 500


500
Forecasted Com/Ind Loads
Forecasted Com/Ind Loads
Historic Data (Plains)
Historic Data (Plains)

Load (MW)
400

Load (MW)
No double counting! 400

300
300

Commercial - 200
200
281
281

Industrial Point loads 100


100
134
134

124
124

Metro Study 0
0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
500
450

+ + =
400
350

+ + =
300
281
250
200

150
100
50
0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
2017 Plains Forecast

2017 Peak Demand


Berthoud

Gi lcrest

Summer - July
Mead

Platteville

Hygiene

Longmont

Firestone
Keenesburg
Niwot
Frederi ck
Dacono
Fort Lupton Hudson

Erie

Valmont Wattenberg

Boulder Lochbuie
Lafayette
Louisvi lle Brighton

Marshall Superior
Thornton
rado Springs
Broomfield Eastlake
Henderson

Northglenn

Denver International Airport


Federal Heights Commerce City
Leyden
Westminster Dupont
Western Hills Adams City

Arvada
Load Centers: Substation influence areas

60
60

60


Heavily loaded
60

36

56
56
85
256
256
85

36
feeders no more than
4 miles in length Del Camino
Del Camino
Physical Barriers


66
Slater
Slater ((
66


(
Interstates Rinn Valley
( Davis
Davis Homestead


(Rinn Valley Homestead
Railroads

25

(


25 (
Hudson
(
Hudson


Rivers


287
287 (
(
(Dacono Fulton


Coal Mine (Dacono 52 Fulton
Coal Mine ((
52

Utilize existing Brighton-Dist


Brighton-Dist
Henry Lake/Lochbuie
Henry Lake/Lochbuie


(
infrastructure Storm Chaser



157
157
Erie
Erie
( Storm Chaser (
(
Xylophone
Xylophone



Parkway
( Platte( Valley



42 Parkway
( (Green7
Platte( Valley Bromley
(
42 (Green (
Bromley


170



Henderson (
170 (
Henderson
76
( Barr Lake


( Barr Lake

76
( Prairie Center

22

119 ( ( 22 Prairie Center
79
Lincoln Hills
Lincoln Hills
119 (
Crescent
Crescent
128

128 Silver Saddle
79
Silver Saddle
( (



( (


93
( 44 (


((
72
72
93
( 44 (
Reunion
Reunion
Blue Mountain

( Blue Mountain
46
Ralston Creek
Ralston Creek
( 46
224
470

470


224 265
53 265
53 270


121 270
35

121
35



58
58


95



70
70 40
40
95


6
6


2
2
30
30

Load Center Forecast
Current feeder extents

34
402

257

Current switching 60



60

56

85
256

verses optimal

switching 36

configurations
Del( Camino


66

Platteville


(
Switching changes as Rinn Valley


(


25 Hudson

substations come online


(
Frederick


287 Dacono
(


( Fulton


52
(

Brighton Dist


( Lochbuie



157
Platte Valley
(
Parkway


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(



42 ( (
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170 Henderson



(
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76

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22


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128
Riverdale Silver Saddle Reunion
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93
( 44 ( (

(

72

Ralston Creek

(
46
224
265


470


53
270



121
35



58

95



70

40
Load Center Forecast
Find Load Center ModelBuilder Model
Influence Areas and Load Centers
Legend
Legend
Substation
!> Plains Dist. Load Center - 2017
( !> Substation
Plains Dist. Load Center - 2017 influence


- Existing


( Substation - Existing
boundaries
Del Camino
Del Camino
defined
Slater !>

Slater !> (

!> (
!>
Heavily loaded


( Davis
Davis

!>
!>
Homestead !>
Homestead !>
feeders 4 miles
Rinn Valley !>(

Rinn Valley !>(


max


(
Hudson


(
Hudson
!>
!>

!>(

Dacono!>(
Physical Barriers

Coal Mine
( Fulton !>

( Dacono Fulton !>



Coal Mine (
!>

!>

Brighton-Dist
(
Interstates
Brighton-Dist

Storm Chaser
Henry Lake/Lochbuie
Railroads
( >!

Henry Lake/Lochbuie
Erie !> ( !>
Storm Chaser
!> Legen
Rivers

Xylophone
Erie !> !> !> ( Xylophone
Legen
!> Pl

!> (
( !>SuPl



!> ( Su

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Platte Valley

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( > !>( Bromley !>

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Green
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Prairie Center
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!>

Silver Saddle !>


Silver Saddle !>

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!> (

( (
Reunion
Reunion

Load Center Forecast


2017 forecasted load centers versus substations


(
(



Slater ( ( ( (
Slater
^^^^ ^^^ DelCamino

( ( DelCamino
( (
^


((


((


Davis Homestead
Davis Homestead
^^^^ ^^^^



RinnValley ( (
^^^^ ( RinnValley ( (


( Hudson
( Hudson
Dacono
^^^^ Plains video


^^^^ Dacono (
Fulton

( (
Fulton
CoalMine ( (
^^^^

CoalMine (
^^^^
(
( South video

(
(
BrightonDist
Erie BrightonDist StormChaser

^^^^
Erie
^^^^ StormChaser

( (
^^^^

(
(
^^^^
(HenryLake/Lochbuie

(

( (
Parkway ( (HenryLake/Lochbuie
Parkway Xylophone
^^^^ ^^^ PlatteValley Bromley
PlatteValley Bromley Xylophone
^^^^

(
^^^^ ^^^^

( (

^( (
( Green
Green
Henderson
Henderson
(
( BarrLake
BarrLake
^^^^
^^^^ ^

( (
( PrairieCenter (
( PrairieCenter

^^^
SilverSaddle
( SilverSaddle
(

^^^^
(

^^^^

( (

( ( (
Reunion
( Reunion
(
Load Center Forecast
Power Used (MVA)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Barr Lake
5.
4

Load Center Forecast


Brighton-Dist
4.
5

44
Bromley .9

19
Coal Mine .1

27
Dacono .1

53
Davis .3

26
Del Camino .0

Erie
8.
3

18
Fulton .7

13
Green .1

15
Henderson
2007
2012
2017

.7

18
Henry Lake/Lochbuie .2

9.
Homestead 5

Influence Area
23
Hudson
Load Statistics by Influence Area

.5

42
Parkway .5

44
Platte Valley .4

19
Prairie Center .6

49
Reunion .9

50
Rinn Valley .8

38
Silver Saddle .7

24
Slater .7

33
Storm Chaser .4

12
Xylophone .2
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
NOAA DMSP Nighttime Lights
NOAA DMSP Nighttime Lights
Berthoud
Gilcrest

Mead
Platteville

Hygiene
Longmont

Firestone
Keenesburg
Niwot Frederick
Dacono
Fort Lupton Hudson Prospect Valley

Erie
Valmont Wattenberg

Boulder Lochbuie
Lafayette
Louisville Brighton
Nederland Marshall Superior
Eldora
Thornton
Pinecl iffe Eldorado Springs
Wondervu Broomfield Eastlake Henderson
Rollinsville Crescent
East Portal
Northglenn
Denver International Airport
Federal Heights Commerce City
Leyden Dupont
Westminster
Western Hills Adams City

Central City Arvada

Mountain View
Empire Wheat Ridge Bennett
Golden Edgewater Watkins
Idaho Springs Denver Aurora
Pleasant ViewEdgemont
Looking ahead

Make better use of ArcInfo level tools and Spatial


Analyst to simplify the process
Use Point to Raster tool to convert service points
with load directly to raster
Interested in spatial electric load forecasting class
for formal education
Explore other forecasting methods including land
use classification
Create more empirical models independent of
rate structure.
take advantage of data loggers
Acknowledgements and References

Various folks at United Power


Software systems: ArcGIS 9.2, ArcGIS Spatial Analyst,
Oracle 10g with ArcSDE 9.2, CIS NISC iVUE with Oracle
back-end
Valenti, Jessica. Spatial Load Forecasting, presented at ESRI
EGUG, October 2006, Albuquerque, NM.
http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/egug2006/papers/spatial-
load.pdf
Willis, Lee. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting. Second
Edition. New York: Marcel Dekker, 2002.
Image and Data processing by NOAA's National
Geophysical Data Center.
DMSP data collected by the US Air Force Weather Agency.