The Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System

A Theory of Slums
Author(s): Charles J. Stokes
Source: Land Economics, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Aug., 1962), pp. 187-197
Published by: University of Wisconsin Press
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 LAND ECONOM
a quarterly journal of
PLANNING, HOUSING & PUBLIC UTILITIES
Is~s
AUGUST
1962
A Theory of Slums
By CHARLES J. STOKES*
HE PARADOXOf slums is that despite
the wealth and the high level of eco-
nomic development of the United States,
they are as prevalent in our cities as in
many an overseas urban area. Moreover,
slums persist here despite attempts over
the past three decades at least to elimi-
nate them. Is there a justification or an
explanation for slums in this country?
Many explanations of slums do in fact
exist. They are used as a basis for the
actions taken to eliminate slums. One is
tempted, though he ought not yield to
such a temptation, to suggest that a pos-
sible reason why the elimination of slums
has failed is that the explanations are
inadequate. It is, however, worthwhile
to suggest that in view of the very large
sums of money about to be spent on
urban redevelopment more careful at-
tention might well be paid to a complete
* Charles Anderson Dana Professor of Economics,
University of Bridgeport, Bridgeport, Connecticut.
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VOLUME XXXVIII
NUMBER 3
theory of slums. That is what this article
attempts.'
Assuming that slums do have a func-
tion in the development of the city, we
intend in this paper to see how this func-
tion evolves and show its direct relation
to the growth of the city. But theory of
slums presented here will seem a bit odd
to the reader familar with the literature
because it is not concerned with build-
ings or neighborhoods except tangen-
tially. Rather what emerges is a socio-
economic analysis which is in fact a
branch of the theory of the labor force.
We seek to find meaningful relations
among the major variables assumed to be
associated with slum situations and to de-
rive a hypothesis about the rates of
change of these variables in such a man-
ner that predictions can be made about
slum development. What follows arose
1The research upon which this article is based
was in part financed by the Faculty Research Fund
of the University of Bridgeport which awarded a
grant.
188 LAND ECONOMICS
out of a need to explain to Latin Ameri-
can audiences both the future of the slum
problem so obvious in their large cities
and the reasons why they persist in the
United States. It evolved as the author
wandered through the slums of Caracas,
Lima, Buenos Aires, Guayaquil among
other cities and made comparisons with
what was familiar to him in American
cities. The theory is outlined here in the
hope that unemotional thinking about
slum formation may provide an ultimate
solution.
What is slum in the city landscape is
of spontaneous origin. This very spon-
taneity makes the definition of slums dif-
ficult. Slums appear to be planless and
even antiplan. Slums, it is argued, do not
yield themselves readily to rearrange-
ment. Indeed, are they not like cancer?
Cancer has its own growth process dis-
tinct and ultimately inimical to the
human body. Is the presence and con-
tinued growth of slums destructive of
the city? Suppose the answer were affir-
mative. Then one possible definition fol-
lows. Slums, it may be asserted, are
those areas of the city in which housing
and resulting social arrangements de-
velop by processesso different from those
by which the general growth of the city
proceeds that they will destroy the city.
All we have now to do is to look for these
areas.
Whatever other merits such a defini-
tion has, it does suffer from two difficul-
ties. It does not tell us what to look for.
And there is a doubt about the analogy.
Slums may be a necessary and even help-
ful phase of the ecological processes by
which city growth can be described.
A good descriptive definition must be
capable of fitting a wide range of appar-
ently analogous situations. We must in
the definition account for the commu-
nity housing standard, the community's
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evaluation of its housing requirements,
as well as the community's techniques
for handling and absorbing the poor and
the stranger. Indeed, the slum is the
home of the poor and the stranger, if
nothing else. These are the classes not
(as yet) integrated into the life of the
city. The poor are not integrated because
of an ability barrier which tends to sep-
arate the city populace into those who
will be fully utilized in the economic and
social life of the city and those who will
not be regarded as being of the required
level of social development. The stran-
gers are not integrated by reason of a
"different" culture and the stage to
which their own acculturation has come.
Slums differ from the districts in which
the lowest stratum of the integrated
classes live by failing to conform to the
standards which this stratum has set for
itself. The distinctive feature of slums
is not appearance as such, then, but the
relation between the slum and its inhabi-
tants and that neighborhood and its in-
habitants which the city regards as hav-
ing met minimum livability standards.
By this kind of definition what is slum
in Lima may not be slum in Guayaquil.
The function of the slum at any moment
in city development is to house those
classes which do not participate directly
in the economic and social life of the city.
To illustrate the complexity of slum
formation and to attempt a theory of
slum growth which correlates with a
theory of city growth, it will be useful
to construct a simple model.2 This is
done in Figure 1.
2The model which follows and which is elabo-
rated in the appendix grew out of an attempt to
explain the observations of Professor Robert Lamp-
man. See his The Low Income Population and
Economic Growth, Study Paper number 12, Joint
Economic Committee, United States Congress,
Washington, D. C., 1959. See also, Making Ends
Meet On Less Than $2,000 A Year, Senate Docu-
ment number 112, Washington, D. C., 1952.
 A THEORY OF SLUMS
CLSSES ROPE SESPAIR
CAATOA B "hope" and "despair" may readily be
Q-ESCATOR C D
The model sorts out from a welter of
variables two which are thought to be
determinants of slums.8 One of these
is the psychological attitude toward the
possibility of success in moving up
through the class structure by assimila-
tion or acculturation to full participation
in the economic and social life of the
community. The other is a measure of
socio-economic handicaps and barriers to
such movement.
Horizontally, we distinguish slums of
"hope" and slums of "despair," and ver-
tically, escalator and non-escalatorclasses.
The distinction between "hope" and
"despair" is one which to some degree
must be intuitive. By "hope" is meant
that quality of psychological response by
the inhabitant of the slum which indi-
cates both his intention to "better" him-
self and his estimate of the probable out-
come of such an effort. "Despair" by the
same token denotes either a lack of such
intention or a negative estimate of the
probable outcome of any attempt to
change status.
An escalator class is a group of people
who can be expected, barring unusual
circumstances, to move up through the
*Lampman finds many more variables than these.
Ibid., p. 6.
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189
class structure. A non-escalator class is
one which is denied in some way the
privilege of escalation.
The psychological distinction between
converted into a distinction between the
employable and the non-employable.
There may be some fuzziness about the
exact location of the boundary line but
its nature is clear. What is involved is
some social measure of "ability" seen ob-
jectively as well as subjectively. At any
moment of time, the city will have de-
termined a minimum set of "ability"
standards. For each job, for example,
there may be age limits preventing those
who are too old or too young from gain-
ing employment or it may prove difficult
to find employment for breadwinners
whose education does not go beyond the
8th grade of grammar school.
The distinction between escalator and
non-escalator classes implies the concept
of caste. There are thus two categories
of jobs one of which permits escalation
and another which does not.4 It is im-
portant to make a careful difference be-
tween caste and ability in this model.
Caste membership need not mean resi-
dence in a slum provided adequate op-
portunities for employment exist on this
side of the caste line. This in no way de-
nies that some form of racial or religious
integration may be a more effective
method than separate-but-equal job op-
portunities. Adequate job opportunities
within the caste lines will, however, work
to eliminate slums if permitted to do so.
The slums of "hope" have an addi-
tional characteristic of importance. They
are the home of the stranger, the in-mi-
SIt may be objected that a caste system implies
inadequate as well as unequal job opportunities.
Logically this need not follow. "Separatebut equal"
is a possible solution regardlessof its desirability.
190 LAND ECONOMICS
grant, the recent arrival.5 These stran-
gers have been attracted to the city by
the social or economic opportunities the
city offers. Or they may have been driven
from their homes in the countryside or
in other nations by economic, political
or social upheaval. In this model, it has
seemed best to emphasize the demand
side postulating that an economic differ-
ential, more than likely wage levels, be-
tween the city and its hinterland is the
motivating force leading to in-migration.
The strangers come to the city seeking
"improvement" but, if they lack the
language abilities, educational attain-
ments and other necessary social and eco-
nomic resources, they may find escala-
tion difficult even if it remains possible.
This is all the more true if as is likely
to be the case the number of in-migrants
in the early waves may exceed the actual
new job opportunities made available.
The result is that the strangers will tend
to fill up the poor housing facilities and
spill over into shanty towns.
Note that the slums of "hope" are so
characterized because, given normal con-
ditions, it can be expected that many of
the strangers who inhabit them will be
absorbed into the general employable
population. They will learn the lan-
guage. They will become acclimated and
they will acquire the cultural resources
necessary. So much the history of migra-
tion has taught us. At any moment of
time prior to complete integration there
will, however, be slums of "hope."
Not all the strangers, though, will be
successful in moving up through the so-
cial class structure. Some will lack "abil-
ity." A group that we have called the "C"
5 In its Primer About Slums (1958), the New York
State Division of Housing makes in-migration the
first reason for slum formation. However, this rea-
son is overstressed.
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group will be debarred from making the
same rate of progress as the "A" group
by reason of skin color or religion. More
important, a proportion of both the "A"
and "C" groups will end up in slums of
"despair" because they have found it im-
possible to get over the "ability" hurdles
the city erects. Slums of "hope" disap-
pear as migration slows down. Slums of
"despair" do not disappear. For in the
slums of "despair"live the poor.
"Poor people" in an underdeveloped
or developing nation may be taken to be
those whose standardsof living are below
some cut-off point. We may say, for ex-
ample, that, if we have made a careful
study of necessary expenditures for nor-
mal subsistence, those who do not ob-
tain this minimum amount are "poor."
It is, of course, possible and even likely
that in an underdeveloped society the per
capita income may thus only permit a
standard of living which must lie at or
below the poverty level so defined. As
society develops, in the sense that per
capita income increases, there will be a
widened gap between average incomes
and the poverty level. But this is not the
only observable change. Whereas, in un-
derdeveloped countries it is very possible
that the distribution of incomes will be
positively skewed as contrasted with the
distribution of abilities which is more
than likely normal, with the growth in
per capita income there is a tendency for
the distribution of income to approxi-
mate more and more closely the distribu-
tion of abilities. What this means is that
in advanced societies poverty and lack of
ability become more and more correla-
tive. Thus, in an advanced nation the
"poor"-not only the poor in income
terms but more significantly the poor in
"ability"-will be found living in the
slums of "despair." That is where those
who cannot meet the society's minimum
 A THEORY OF SLUMS
standards for full utilization and em-
ployability on any normal basis reside.
In short, we can say that slum forma-
tion depends on the rate of in-migration
as well as on the rate of integration or
absorption of the migrants. Obviously,
too, slum formation depends on the ex-
istence of barriers to escalation as well as
the distinction between income and
"ability" classes.
Having set up the model, let us now
see how it fits actual cases. In what fol-
lows, four distinct city slum neighbor-
hoods are presented for analysis in terms
of the model.
A.
Guayaquil, Ecuador's largest city and
situated near the mouth of the Guayas
River, has grown since World War II to
have more than 500,000 inhabitants. The
fast rate of growth has been dependent
upon in-migration, a good deal of such
migration coming from the surrounding
tropical countryside but perhaps an even
larger proportion deriving from the tem-
perate and occasionally cold valleys of
the Sierra of the Andes. The "serranos"
have rather more Indian blood than the
"costefios."
From Calle Los Rios west and Bulevar
9 de Octubre south and especially along
Avenida Gomez Rendon-the Boulevard
of the Poor-a vast area of bamboo shacks
stretches to the salt water estuaries. Much
of this Barrio de los Pobres-city of the
poor-is below the tide, especially in the
rainy "winter." City planning engineers
in Guayaquil estimate that at least half
the city's population lives in such areas
as this.
The Barrio de los Pobres is a Type A
slum. It is inhabited by strangers who
hope to rise and who see themselves held
back by no insurmountable barriers. Un-
like Quito, Ecuador's capital (where ra-
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191
cial distinctions are made much of) in
Guayaquil, mestizos and Indians who
have been assimilated play important
roles in the life of the city.
The institution of the "relleno"-the
filling in of the marshes-is a key indica-
tor of the nature of the slum process in
Guayaquil. The slum dweller builds his
bamboo shack as high as the possible
level of the "relleno," whenever he or
the city can do the filling-in.
At the inner edges of this Barrio of the
Poor and along its principal streets can
be seen the active phase of the transition
process. Each week finds the filled-in
areas pushed farther out. With "relleno"
completed, those who live in the margi-
nal areas rapidly bring their neighbor-
hood up to standard, particularly as the
city paves the streets. Now more perma-
nent buildings, largely of heavier wood
than bamboo with facades of concrete,
and in some cases of all concrete con-
struction-the preferred building mate-
rial-dot the reclaimed area. Out on the
far edge of the slums the shack city
extends itself farther west week by week
as the squatters move in. Withal there is
a sense of a victorious struggle against
the elements.
For Guayaquil, slum formation is basic
to the process of city growth.6 The slum
is a temporary home and a kind of a
school house. If we classify the Barrio de
los Pobres as a type A slum, we ob-
serve the paradox that the Type A slum
is probably the least attractive of all
slums because it is the most temporary.
6 Dr. Humberto Palacios, director of the Economic
Research Institute of the University of Guayaquil,
argues that Guayaquil owes its growth entirely to
this "pioneering" by the in-migrants. Not only is
land for development provided but the process
gives tone to the economic life of the city. Certainly
Guayaquilefios are a very aggressive people.
192 LAND ECONOMICS
By the same token, it is the one most apt
to "clean" itself up.
Admittedly this "cleaning up" process
may not be apparent to the casual ob-
server because it can take a number of
forms depending upon the rate and na-
ture of in- and out-migration. The slum
families, for example, as they become ad-
justed to their new community and ac-
quire the necessary social and economic
resources may find it possible to leave
their slum homes. If they do so and are
followed in these same dwellings by other
more recent arrivals with the same back-
ground, the dwellers have changed but
the slums remain. On the other hand, if
the growth of the city is rapid in a lim-
ited land area-as in the case of Guaya-
quil-the slum itself may disappear.
B leave them but there does appear to be a
The first impression a casual visitor
has of Boston's South End is one of run-
down gentility. Along streets which often
have parks down their center stand four-
and five-story brick houses with bowed
fronts. There is a haunting charm to
these elm-shaded streets. But the second
impression is more lasting. Decay is
everywhere. An air of hopelessness per-
vades the atmosphere.
This is a type B slum, an area in which
the social residue live. While the South
End does have Negro sections at its edges,
it is largely a place for old, once well-to-
do, poor, cast-off Bostonians. Here, too,
live the shady characters, the prostitutes,
the citizen at the margin of social respect-
ability. Here and there occasional houses,
churches and other public buildings in-
dicate successful attempts to fight off the
persistent down-grading. Except for
the slum clearance project at Franklin
Square, the cleaned out New York Streets
area and the Hospital Zone, little if any
new buildings have gone up in the South
End for three generations.
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The barriers to movement upward and
outward for the South Ender are largely
subjective. The poverty one sees in its
streets appears to have some correlation
with the large numbers of taverns. The
South End does not expand physically.
It slowly dies and with it what was once
one of the best areas in Boston.
The type B slum, the slum of "de-
spair," is frequently found in United
States cities. Like the South End, they
are often genteel in background but are
the present home of the cast-offplus those
who have been unable to complete the
process of acculturation. These are those
for whom society has pity but has some-
how been unable to help effectively It is
unlikely that the major part of the inhab-
itants of the slums of "despair"will ever
steady movement into them.
It is difficult, however, to guess at
what rate these slums of despair increase
or decrease. Notice that slums of type B
are more "attractive" than those of type
A. They are much less livable; psycho-
logically less productive of progress.
C
Deceptively similar to Boston's South
End is Chicago's South Side-Bronzeville.
This area is a vast Negro slum which is
continually pushing out from an area
once bounded by Roosevelt Boulevard
on the north, the railroad tracks at 63rd
Street on the south, Wentworth Avenue
on the west, and the all-white enclaves
of Hyde Park and Kenwood on the east.
Social barriersagainst Negroes need no
detailing here, but that these barriers can
be overstressed is apparent in Bronze-
ville. Chicago Negroes have had a repu-
tation for aggressiveness. They have es-
tablished newspapers, magazines, insur-
ance companies, factories and the like. In
fact, "hope" is evident everywhere.
 A THEORY OF SLUMS 193

Unlike Guayaquil, however, there is and social life. The Indian coming down
no easytransitionin Bronzevilleinto bet- from the Altiplano finds his home be-
ter neighborhoods. Bronzeville in its yond the city limits in shacks built of
growth gives little clue to the life and what he can find. Though Lima grows,
growthof the gigantic city of which it is its growth neither benefits him nor af-
a part. Forcedto develop their own sub- fects him. Immigrants from Asia and
culture, Bronzeville's inhabitants are Europe as well as elsewhere in Latin
building their own city. America, provided only that they are not
Type C slums, of which Bronzeville Indian in culture, find more ready ac-
is an example, are like type A with an ceptance into Lima's life than he does.
importantdifference.While they are, to Not wanted, unaggressive, he sits in de-
be sure,the slum of "hope,"homesof the spair at the city's gates. Physically near,
stranger,their inhabitantshave subjec- he is actually as far from social integra-
tively as well as objectively effective tion as he was in his mountain village.
barriers to acculturation.They do not The type D slum, of which Lima's
belong to an escalator class. Yet these City of God is an example, is even more
slum dwellersare "strivers."Evidencing a slum of "despair" than type B, for in
above averagemental and social talents, addition to all the subjective disabilities
as they acquirea permanentfoothold in characteristic of the dwellers of the type
the city into which they have come, they B slum, those of type D suffer because of
are more likely to reclaim their neigh- their different color, religion or race. For
borhoods,if they can (as in Baltimore) them society has little sympathy. The
or if they can't they will push toward community has made no provision for
better neighborhoods. One character-
housing these people and does not intend
istic needs stressing,since type C slum to absorb them. There is
literally no
dwellers have substantial difficultiesto other
place to which they can go. In
overcome,they are likely to be militant the words of the Negro spiritual, "there
along with their aggressiveness.Occa- is no hiding place down here."
sionally, this militance may manifest it- Can the theory of slums we are outlin-
self in a growth of economic crimes--
here be of help in setting forth a pol-
gambling, prostitution, bootlegging, et ing
cetera. Some of these activitiesare obvi- icy for slum elimination? We think so.
In underdeveloped and developing
ously wealth-producingand act as pres-
sures toward invasion of better neigh- countries, slums of type A are quite evi-
borhoods. dent as indeed they were in pioneer
D America. However disturbing these
slums may be to the sensibilities of the
Lima, Peru is a city of magnificence.
But far awayfrom the charmof Avenida casual observer, they are serving a nec-
essarypurpose. To be sure, better organi-
Arequipa,the impressiveMirafloresand zation
San Isidro districtsas well the beauty of might reduce the need for this
Plaza de Armas,is the infamousCiudad type of slum but it is not likely that de-
de Dios, an Indian slum. Unlike Guaya- veloping nations will have either the re-
quil whereracialbarriersare for all prac- sources or the governmental techniques
tical purposes non-existent, Lima in a which will permit a less disturbing way
subtle as well as direct way bars the In- of handling the movement of laborers
dian from participationin its economic into the cities.

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194 LAND ECONOMICS
The advisor on economic development
should be cautious in recommending
that same form of solution for growing
nations and their slums which he has
seen tried at home. Perhaps a good ex-
ample of the best form of slum elimina-
tion and even avoidance in an under-
developed nation is that tried in the
Puerto Rican city of Ponce, where basic
sewage and water facilities along with
sidewalks and macadamized pavement
have been provided in slum areas as a
part of the slum dwellers' own efforts to
upgrade their neighborhoods. This im-
plies a program of education, commu-
nity organization as well as slum clear-
ance.
South Africa's racial areas program,
whatever may be said against it by those
who quite rightly oppose residential seg-
regation, is an attempt to find a rational
solution to the helter-skelter growth of
slums at the edge of the city. In Durban,
Port Elizabeth and Johannesburg, among
other cities, native "locations" have been
bulldozed and have been replaced by
carefully planned native townships. One
of the world's most famous slums, Cato
Manor, is now gone from the center of
Durban.
Slums of types A and C (the slums of
"hope") are self eliminating if the so-
ciety has the time to wait. How fast they
disappear depends upon the rate at which
society absorbs the stranger to it. In West
Germany we have an example of plan-
ning for housing of East Germans and of
absorption which has prevented slum
growth. However, the experience of the
United States, Argentina and Canada
suggests that the rate of absorption also
depends upon continuing economic
growth. The higher the demand for la-
bor continues to be-assuming that there
is no great self-impelled migration-the
more rapid the integration of the stran-
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ger. But even if the self-impelled migra-
tion were large, for integration to pro-
ceed it would only be necessary that eco-
nomic growth and absorption be faster.
While the slums of "hope" may pass
away with economic growth, the same
cannot be said for types B and D. To the
extent that poverty and lack of "ability"
become socially synonymous, the prob-
lem of the elimination of the slum of
"despair" becomes more and more like
that of a disease requiring a therapy
which we have not yet worked out.
Clearly evident in the United States is
the fact that in many of our slum clear-
ance projects we have tended to segre-
gate types B and D people. If in any one
generation there are the seeds of im-
provement of the next, slum clearance-
should it continue to produce the same
sorts of results-may deter the elimina-
tion of slums. This is the paradox of to-
day's efforts.
Conclusion
Some types of slums persist because
they are an index of a paradox. Rising
standards of living are accompanied by
rising standards of ability and compe-
tence. In the United States poverty has
become a term which describes the con-
dition of a class more and more com-
posed of the "incapable." These are the
people who because of society's standards
for entrance into job opportunities have
not been integrated into full participa-
tion in the economic life of the commu-
nity. How to provide for these unfortu-
nates lest their presence yield a costly
dividend of crime and disease remains
the problem of highly developed society.
This slum problem is, however, dis-
tinct from the problem of earlier and less
developed days and countries. In those
distant days and lands, slums were and
are an index of growth and of unab-
sorbed immigration to cities. Their pres-
 A THEORY OF SLUMS
ence is and was a sign of economic health
though this need not mean that careful
social organization might not make them
largely unnecessary. Such a level of or-
ganization implies a stage of develop-
ment not yet reached in most countries
which are yet developing.
Clearly outlined in this theory of slums
is the role of caste. That this caste mem-
bership need not imply slum residence
should be evident but it is one of the
factors which provides for a differential
rate of absorption as between castes.
These differential rates of absorption
have led to lingering slums of "hope"
among minority groups in the United
States. These, however, are disappearing.
Ultimately the problem of caste as a de-
terminant of slums coalesces with that of
"ability" and becomes part of the same
force at work in slum persistence.
APPENDIX
I. Migration and the Rate of Absorption.
Assume that at any moment of time the
level of population of a city of substantial
size is steady. It is not increasing either
from natural growth or from in-migration
from the city's hinterland. Assume, more-
over, that employment is full. There is no
excess demand for labor.
In the hinterland, assume that there are
no factors at work which would induce out-
migration other than an excess demand for
labor in the city. To be sure, these assump-
tions make in-migration a demand phenom-
enon. However, there is no neglect of the
supply side. Rather supply enters into the
analysis rather oddly. For one thing, if as
is part of our tradition, out-migration de-
pends upon non-economic motivation, we
can not produce a normal supply function.
For another, since our concern is with the
impact of migration upon the formation of
slums, we need only to observe that migra-
tion will probably not be directed toward
those cities where no economic opportunity
exists.
An excess demand then for labor is the
measure of existence of that economic op-
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195
portunity and leads to in-migration. The
excess demand leads at full employment to
an increase in the city's going wage but,
more important, given different rates of
economic growth as between the city and its
hinterland, to a widening of the differential
between wages levels in the two market
areas. It is in fact this growth in the differ-
ential which becomes the economic incen-
tive directing migration toward the city.
Now we are ready to consider the nature
of the migration. It is likely that, given the
unsettled labor market in the hinterland
plus the accumulation of non-economic
motives, once the in-migration is induced
to begin, it will exceed the actual initial
demand. The city will be faced with absorb-
ing the newcomers.
In addition, of course, to the excess sup-
ply of labor now created and the absorption
problem thus inherent, there is the problem
of the "quality" of the migration. It can be
assumed that the migrants will be divided
into those who can readily be absorbed into
the labor force, provided such opportunity
be available, and those who will not be
readily absorbed because of the lack of
"ability" of some of the migrants.
If there were no such division by reason
of ability, then the rate of absorption would
depend upon the rate of economic growth
or what is the same thing, the rising level
of average income. But if this rate of
economic growth be slow-slow relative to
the flow of in-migration-slums will appear.
These will be slums of hope because in
them will live a potentially utilizable labor
force. These "temporary" slums will be an
umIzTICu
OF
I ClUrz TILIZATION
AT
POPUATIOW
A
r ATE OF ABSORflION
S2
POVLfLUM
0 *C1
pCITY
22 3 '4
196 LAND ECONOMICS
index of the rate of economic growth and
the excess supply of labor.
The persistence of slums of hope will
presumably depend upon the differential
rates of growth of the city and its hinter-
land as well as upon the internal rate of
growth of the city alone. They will disap-
pear as demand for labor moves toward
equality with the supply. The slower the
rate of absorption, the faster the rate of
slum formation spreads blight across the
city landscape. As growth in the hinterland
-possibly a spillover from the city-pro-
ceeds, it will tend to counteract the non-
economic motivation to out-migrate. The
differential declines, in-migration slows
down and absorption steps up. Internally,
the city rate of growth insures that jobs are
provided for the newcomers. Slums disap-
pear.7
II. The Poor and Their Replacement.
There are, however, ability hurdles which
the in-migrants must surmount. A signifi-
cant proportion of the newcomers will find
or will react such a way as to indicate that
they understand that little chance exists for
full integration into the community. These
are the "incapable," the un-utilized or
under-utilized.
To be sure, if the rate of growth is slow
and if the proportion of "incapables" to
the total flow of migration is low, then in
the early period of in-migration, poverty
arising from this source will be largely an
economic phenomenon. But as absorption
proceeds with ability barriers remaining at
previous levels, a larger and larger propor-
aIn Figure 2 a diagram of the rate of absorption
and its interaction with the formation of slums is
presented. If we begin at OP1 (equal to P1F and
to OF) where we have full utilization at a popula-
tion equilibrium and observe what happens as pop-
ulation increases through migration from P1 to P2
to P3 to P4, we can trace out the genesis of slums.
During period 2, in-migration occurs (equal to
FA2). B2F is that proportion of the in-migration
which is absorbed. The slope of FB2B3B4 is the rate
of absorption. By period 3 the rate of absorption
has become parallel to the rate of full absorption
indicating that a given absolute number of the in-
migrants have found it impossible to get over the
ability barrier. The gap A2B2, A3B3, A4B4 repre-
sents slums of despair which persist. The gap
B2F, B3F represents slums of hope which finally
disappear. This model assumes one "shot" of in-
migration.
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tion of slum dwellers (the "poor") will be
characterized by a lack of "ability." In fact,
if economic growth permits, absorption will
finally have reached some maximum pos-
sible level and the "poor" and the "inca-
pable" will be the same persons. Lacking
any hope of integration, they inhabit the
slums of despair.
It should be observed that some of the
"incapable" may have come from the pres-
ent population of the city. These are those
who have "fallen" into poverty by reason
of a lack of ability or who have been "cast
off."
What can we say about the persistence of
the slums of despair or about their possible
rate of growth? In this case we can not rely
upon the rate of economic growth, a rising
level of income, or full employment to
eliminate these slums.
To the extent that ability, however de-
fined, is normally distributed-a likely hy-
pothesis-it may be expected that with a
fixed ability hurdle, slums of despair will
not only persist but will grow at about the
rate of growth of the general population,
assuming no further in-migration. If in-
migration continues it is possible that slums
of despair may grow faster than the general
population. One of the reasons for this like-
lihood is that society will tend to impose a
higher standard for entering than for re-
maining among the utilized. It is also likely
that the very growth in the economy which
makes possible absorption brings with it a
rising standard of competence-a level of
ability-making a larger proportion of the
in-migrants "incapable."
III. Income as a Determinant of Slum
Formation. It might be argued that income
should have been introduced at an earlier
stage in the analysis but its consideration
has been postponed to now to permit a
detailing of the role of "ability."
Assuming that ability is normally distrib-
uted is rather different from assuming that
income is normally distributed. Certainly
in the earlier stages of economic growth it
is evident that income distribution is de-
cidedly skewed to the right. But there is
also evidence that suggests a tendency for
income distribution to move toward nor-
mality as income levels increase.
Just as there is an ability cutoff or bar-
rier, so society has an income cutoff or
 A THEORY OF SLUMS 197

barrier below which we have poverty. In
earlier stages of economic growth, mean
ability levels will lie considerably above
mean income levels, so that the poor in
income terms include many whose ability
levels are above the ability cutoff. But as
the mean income level shifts upward the
income and ability cutoffs tend to become
synonymous. To the extent that this be-
comes true, poverty and lack of ability be-
come one and the same thing. This is
2I !MLU
DWELLKES
+
P-
CIT!
OPULATIONPH
IE =ULI USTLIZSD
SLUHO
The other category includes those jobs
whose retention does not necessarily permit
such escalation. This third hurdle or cutoff
differs from the first two-ability and in-
come-in being horizontal. It cuts across
income and ability groupings.
V. The Basic Matrix. We are in a posi-
tion, now that we have the variables de-
fined, to consider the basic matrix which
underlies our model of slum growth. In
Figure 3 we can distinguish two vertical
barriers-income and ability. The income
+ +
barrier separates the fully utilized from the
poor and depends for its position upon the
ms O
SOE SM OF DESPAIR

level of economic growth. The ability bar-

ESCALATOR
CI.ASES 4 A
rier divides the poor into two groups, those
who reside in slums of hope and whose
absorption and ultimate utilization depend
CLE..
.ER
+
upon the rate of economic growth and those
4

who reside in slums of despair and who will

SE
CLU.E. n -
,,,
C + D
S
not be fully utilized regardless of the rate
of economic growth at present ability
standards.
The horizontal barrier-the caste barrier
-separates each grouping into two cate-
another way of saying that a low level of gories each. For each escalator group there
income does lead to poverty and slums but is a parallel non-escalator group. For the
that a rising income is limited in its ability non-escalator groups a different rate of ab-
to remove slums if ability barriers exist. sorption applies, as well as a different level
of utilization and perhaps even a different
and higher cutoff for ability. Economic
IV. Escalator and Non-escalator Classes. growth has a weaker effect below the caste
Up to now we have been assuming that barrier in bringing about the absorption
migration, ability and income growth are of the capable. The result is that poverty
the factors which affect the rate of slum and slums of despair remain a more serious
formation. So they do but it needs also to set of problems than for the escalator class.
be pointed out that there may be differing It is, of course, possible to conceive of a
rates of absorption within the city's popu- model in which the caste barrier is suffi-
lation due to the presence of caste lines. ciently high that economic growth has prac-
What is implied by caste is that, even if tically no effect on the non-escalator class.
ability, however defined, did not act as a It is also possible to conceive of a caste bar-
barrier to integration and full utilization, rier which is less effective at the upper end
there would still be a third barrier. What than at the lower. The one makes the model
is true is that the city will have divided its more nearly applicable to the Indian coun-
job opportunities into two categories. The tries of South America, for example, and
one category permits those who retain the the other aids in understanding better the
jobs to move up the social scale-escalation. present picture in the United States.

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