Professional Documents
Culture Documents
errivera@clarku.edu, ariely@clarku.edu
Abstract
Drawing upon local, state, and Federally-collected data, this project identified properties
changes in the surrounding neighborhoods. It found that, as is typical in many cities, the
that are relatively low-income and racially diverse. While it anticipates that these areas are likely
educational attainment that correlates with increases in median housing value, it raises questions
about whether these areas are also becoming whiter, as is typical among places that gentrify.
This past summer, the Worcester City Council approved its downtown revitalization plan,
which aims to increase the neighborhoods residential population and retail opportunities
(Kotsopoulos, 2016). The MBTA commuter rail line connecting Worcester to Boston now offers
direct service to Back Bay and South Station, making residence in Worcester while working in
Boston feasible (Moulton, 2016). Real estate prices in Boston and its western suburbs continue to
soar, while the renovation and construction of five hundred new apartments near Union Station,
marketed as the Grid, is imminent. Worcester may be on the cusp of a wave of gentrification.
Using GIS analysis, particularly in the software program ArcMap, this project has two goals:
first, to identify properties that are most likely to be bought up and remodeled as part of this
Defining gentrification is essential to our project so that we can identify drivers and
indicators of neighborhood change. A robust debate has taken place among scholars over the
phenomenons causes and characteristics (Hamnett, 1991). Liberal humanists emphasize the
new cultural and consumptive tastes among workers in service and information industries (Ley,
1996), while Marxists stress the return of capital to the city, class rigidity, and the growing
production of spaces amenable to gentrification by real estate and banking interests (Smith,
1979). Most of the original participants in this exchange have modified their theories to at least
emphasized a more theoretically integrative approach (Hamnett, 1991). Hamnett (1984) refers to
Accordingly, this project focused on the potential for housing redevelopment and demographic
academic literature, but several such studies (none peer-reviewed) have been conducted by
distinguished between indicators of future and current gentrification (Rubin, 2002). For the
former, they identified a high rate of renting, ease of access to job centers, access to public
transportation, growth in traffic, architectural amenities, and low housing values. Movement
from renting to ownership, higher down payments on property purchases, and influxes of
creative class members and associated amenities suggested the existence of gentrification. A
study commissioned by the city of Portland, Oregon, also relied on a dual definition of
well as demographic indicators of vulnerability such as race (i.e. persons of color), lack of
income, and low educational attainment, asserting that displacement of such persons is an
While studies vary considerably, the literature generally suggests that drivers of
gentrification fall into two basic categories: economic (including transportation) and cultural,
while its existence is associated with demographic turnover and increases in the value of housing
stock. Our own analysis will highlight these particular features and outcomes.
Data
Based on our survey of other studies on gentrification, our data consists of two layer
types: demographic information and causal factors of gentrification. All files are in vector
format.
2014.
Worcester Building Values City of Worcester GIS Database, Data Table
2014.
Worcester Arts District MassGIS Polygon
Stations
Worcester Demographics ACS 2013, ACS 2014, Esri Data Polygon
2015
Methodology
Our project diverged along two different paths one focused on identifying vulnerable
properties and the other on neighborhood demographic change but we have combined the
processes in the following verbal explanations of our various steps. However, we have included
simplified flow charts to illustrate our individual processes, as well, which can be found in our
Figures and Tables appendix (see Figures 1 & 2), to accompany this step-by-step explanation.
1) Project each shapefile needed to be projected into the same format as the relevant data frame
either NAD 1983 StatePlane Massachusetts Mainland FIPS 2001 Feet or NAD 1983 UTM
Zone 19N.
2) Clip most of our data was downloaded at the state level. Therefore, we clipped it around a
3) Join we attached a database table containing building values to a Worcester parcel polygon
file. We also used join to add the tables for ACS 2013 and Esri 2015 to the Blockgroup feature
classes respective geodatabases, as well as to join the two datasets in order to calculate change
over time.
4) Field Calculator We used field calculator to attain basic calculations for block groups
population, percentage with BA degree or higher, change in percent white population, change in
various demographic characteristics of the various block groups, as well as how they were
6) Select by attribute we used query by attribute to extract the data on residential building
value, in particular (the data for property land values in the Worcester database table contained
too many omissions to allow analysis). Next, we selected for buildings valued between $200,000
and $500,000 the logic being that these buildings are cheap enough that they can be
redeveloped and sold at a substantial profit but not so cheap that the building is largely decrepit.
7) Select by location from the selection described in Step 6, we chose properties that lie within
one mile of Union Station and the Worcester Arts District. These properties are thus within
walking distance of significant cultural and transportation amenities, which, based on our survey
of the literature, we expect gentrifiers to value highly. We also used this tool to identify block
groups that are within one mile from Union Station and meet all three criteria (increasing white
population, increasing educational attainment, and increasing home values) which we calculated
in Step 4.
demographic data from the American Community Survey, aggregated at the block group level
9) Intersect This tool allowed us to identify block groups where at least two of the three
indicators of gentrification highlighted by Steps 4 and 5 are intensifying. For example, it captures
areas with increasing white population and increasing home values or areas with increasing
Not surprisingly, given the criteria we chose as gentrifications causal factors, our
analysis shows that buildings most vulnerable to gentrification cluster close to downtown, within
maps, as gathered from the American Community Surveys five-year sample between 2010 and
2014, reveals that the local block group populations have relatively low median incomes and
relatively low, though somewhat varied, percentages of white population (see Figures 4 & 5).
Therefore, as our literature review suggests, these neighborhoods fit the profile of areas on the
brink of gentrification, suggesting that significant displacement may ensue as properties are
In addition, our maps showing demographic changes (see Figures 6, 7, & 8), which are
based on a comparison between 2013 ACS five-year sample and Esri projected data for 2015,
indicate that Worcester is generally becoming less white. A few exceptions to this pattern exist
but, surprisingly, only a handful are found among the block groups containing properties that are
most vulnerable to gentrification. The city is also becoming better educated as a whole, with
particular gains in the downtown region. Finally, median home values are increasing
substantially downtown as well, outpacing gains in other parts of the city. Thus, our results
include findings that are somewhat at odds with the literature, which associates increases in
educational attainment and median home value with gains in white population. Only a few
neighborhoods, as yet, seem to follow the classic path of demographic change associated with
In general, our findings about which buildings and block groups are most vulnerable to
gentrification in Worcester are similar to the results of other scholars; given that we used some of
these studies to support selecting particular causal criteria for our own analysis, this should not
come as a surprise. However, the discrepancy in our analysis of demographic change around
development will follow a different path in this city, maintaining a more racially diverse
population in the neighborhoods undergoing significant change even as home values and
possible that the data on which we have based our analysis of demographic change, which are,
after all, only a projection produced by Esri, are flawed. Only time and data collection will tell.
Further research on the extent of displacement due to gentrification, particularly its demographic
impacts, will also shed more light on the specific impacts of the process.
Figures and Tables
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
References
Barton, Michael. 2016. An exploration of the importance of the strategy used to identify
Bates, Lisa K. 2013. Gentrification and displacement study: implementing an equitable inclusive
and Sustainability.
Hamnett, Chris. 1984. Gentrification and residential location theory: a review and assessment
in Herbert, D.T. and Johnston, R.J (eds) Geography and the urban environment. Progress
Hamnett, Chris. 1991. The blind men and the elephant: the explanation of gentrification.
Kotsopoulos, Nick. August 29, 2016. Worcester urban renewal plan moves ahead. Worcester
http://www.telegram.com/news/20160829/worcester-urban-renewal-plan-moves-ahead.
Moulton, Cyrus. October 7, 2015. New express train: Worcester to Boston in under an hour.
http://www.telegram.com/article/20151007/news/151009359.
Smith, Neil. 1979. Toward a theory of gentrification: a back to the city movement by capital, not
Ley, David. 1996. The New Middle Class and the Remaking of the Central City. Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
Rubin, Mark. 2002. Equitable development an approach to increasing affordable housing and