Daring Disney Carnival Game

Brittany Ahlgrim
Danielle Didia
Daniella Toma

FST 10B
Mrs. Dewey
14 March 2016
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Introduction:

What better way to appeal to individuals of all ages than to bring their favorite on screen

characters to an exciting interactive game. In this unique carnival game, customers will be drawn

in by a variety beloved Disney characters. Once hooked, they will participate in series of

challenges that will test their luck. As for the vender, an ample profit will be made for their

cause.

Description, Rules, & Directions:

The player starts the game by rolling 2 dice into the roll pit to determine a sum. The

game board itself has 11 card packets numbered 2 through 12, and the player looks for the packet

that corresponds to the sum rolled. For example, if a 4 is rolled, the player grabs card packet 4

off of the board. Each packet has 7 playing cards inside, a mix of Disney princess and villain

cards. The player then selects any card from that packet without looking and then looks at the

card he or she pulled to see if they won. If they player draws a princess card, the player wins $2,

but if the player draws a regular red 7, the player has doubled their winnings, resulting in a gain

of $4. Drawing a villain card will result in a loss, or a gain of no money. They then return the

card in its packet and the packet to the game board. The game itself costs $1 to play.
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Figure 1. Picture of the Carnival Game

Figure 1 shows how the game board looks. The cards are placed inside each envelope and

the dice are rolled in the blue roll pit.

Theoretical Probability I:

Figure 2. Dice Sum Chart

Figure 2 shows the possible outcomes when rolling 2 dice. Some numbers such as 7 are

more frequent to appear than other numbers such as 2 or 12.

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1
P(rolling a 2) = = 0.0278
36
2
P(rolling a 3) = = 0.0556
36
3
P(rolling a 4) = 36 = 0.0833

4
P(rolling a 5) = 36 = 0.1111

5
P(rolling a 6) = = 0.1389
36
6
P(rolling a 7) = = 0.1667
36
5
P(rolling a 8) = 36 = 0.1389
Figure 3. Probabilities of Sums from Rolling Two Die

The figure above shows the different probabilities of rolling each sum for the first stage

of the game. For example, the probability of rolling a 2 is 0.0278. This is calculated by dividing

the number of possible ways to get 2 by the number of possible outcomes. As shown in Figure 2,

there are 36 possible outcomes and 1 way to get a sum of 2, which leads to the calculation of

2
36 = 0.0278.

Table 1.
Card Packet Probabilities
Dice Sum/Packet Win Win Double Lose
2 5 1 1
= = 0.1429 = 0.1429
7 7 7
0.7143
3 4 0 3
= 0.5714 = 0.4286
7 7
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4 3 0 4
= 0.4286 = 0.5714
7 7
5 2 0 5
7 = 0.2857 7 = 0.7143

6 1 0 6
7 = 0.1429 7 = 0.8571

7 0 1 6
= 0.1429 = 0.8571
7 7
Dice Sum/Packet Win Win Double Lose
8 1 0 6
= 0.1429 = 0.8571
7 7
9 2 0 5
7 = 0.2857 7 = 0.7143

10 3 0 4
7 = 0.4286 7 = 0.5714

11 4 0 3
7 = 0.5714 7 = 0.4286

12 5 1 1
= 0.7143 = 0.1429 = 0.1429
7 7 7
Table 1 shows the probabilities of winning which is drawing a princess card from the

card packet given whatever the sum of the roll was. So, using the chart, P(winning double |

1
drawing a 7) = 7 = 0.1429 because that is the value in the win double column next to the dice

sum of 7.

Table 2.
Combined Probabilities
Dice Sum Win Win Double Lose
2 1 5 1 1 1 1
=0.0199 =0.0040 =0.0040
36 7 36 7 36 7
3 2 4 0 2 3
=0.0317 =0.0238
36 7 36 7
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4 3 3 0 3 4
=0.0357 =0.0476
36 7 36 7
5 4 2 0 4 5
=0.0317 =0.0794
36 7 36 7
6 5 1 0 5 6
=0.0198 =0.1190
36 7 36 7
7 0 6 1 6 6
=0.0238 =0.1429
36 7 36 7
8 5 1 0 5 6
=0.0198 =0.1190
36 7 36 7
9 2 4 0 4 5
=0.0317 =0.0794
36 7 36 7
10 3 3 0 3 4
=0.0357 =0.0476
36 7 36 7
11 4 2 0 2 3
=0.0317 =0.0238
36 7 36 7
12 5 1 1 1 1 1
=0.0198 =0.0040 =0.0040
36 7 36 7 36 7
Totals 0.2776 0.0318 0.6906
Total = 1.0000

Table 2 shows the combined probability of all possibilities in the carnival game. The

correct notation for these calculations would be P(rolling a number the outcome). For

example, to find the combined probability of rolling a two and winning $2, that would be

1 5 5
calculated as follows: P (rolling a 2 winning $2) = = =0.0199. It is a
36 7 252

combination of the probabilities calculated in Figure 3 and Table 1.

Theoretical Probability II:

Table 3
Probability Distribution Chart
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$ +1 +3 -1
P ($) 0.2776 0.0318 0.6906
Table 3 shows the probability distribution chart of the outcomes of this specific carnival

game. These values were taken from the total row of Table 2. The +1 represents a win or

gaining $1, the +3 represents a win double or gaining $3, and the -1 represents a lose, or

losing $1. The winning amounts are not in full value as explained in the rules because one has to

take into account the $1 it takes to play the game.

E ( x )=( 0.27761 )+ ( 0.03183 )+ ( 0.69071 )=0.3175

Figure 4. Expected Value Calculation

It is expected that the game operator will make approximately 32 cents per play. There is

a 27.78% chance of gaining $1 (the player would win $2 but it costs $1 to play), and there is a

3.18% chance of gaining 3 dollars (winning $4 by drawing a red 7 but it costs $1 to play.) There

is also a 69.07% chance of losing 1 dollar (not winning anything but still paying $1 to play).

Relative Frequencies and Experimental Probabilities:

As calculated in Table 2, each outcome has a theoretical probability. For each different

outcome, the probabilities are as listed: a player should have a probability of winning regularly

0.2776 of the time, winning double 0.0318 of the time, winning altogether 0.3094 of the time,

and losing 0.6906 of the time.

Simulation 1: Real Time Simulation

In this simulation, the game was simulated 50 times. This was done by having Princess

Brittany play the actual game 50 times. She was monitored while she played the game to make

sure that she followed the rules correctly and did not cheat. Out of the 50 trials, the player lost 23
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times, won regular ($2) 24 times, and won double ($4) 3 times. The total times a player would

win overall is 27 times. To find the relative frequency, the total number of the favorable outcome

(winning, winning double, losing) was taken and divided by the number of trials, 50. With this

being said, the relative frequency of winning regular was 0.48, winning double was 0.06,

winning overall was 0.54, and losing was 0.46. To calculate expected value, the game operator

would take every relative frequency and multiply it by the gain or loss of the players money,

taking in account the $1 it costs to play.

E ( x )=( 0.481 )+ ( 0.063 )+ ( 0.461 )=0.20

Figure 5. Expected Value Calculation

It is expected that the game operator will make 20 cents per play from this simulation.

This is not very close to the expected value of 32 cents since there were not many trials run.

Simulation 2: Online Simulation

In this specific simulation, the game was simulated 500 times. This was done by using an

online simulator along with a TI nspire CX calculator. An online simulator (http://www.print-

and-play.com/extra/dice-roll-simulator.html) was used to simulate the rolling of two die, which

also added the die and printed out the sum. The online simulator only simulated 100 dies being

rolled at one time, so the simulation had to be done in 5 parts. As for the cards, the random

integer function on a TI nspire CX was used to simulate drawing a random card. The integers

ranged from 1 to 7 and winning differed within the sum of the dies. The number of random

integers that were simulated using to the TI nspire CX was 500, and this corresponds to the

amount of times the dies were rolled.

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Figure 6. Example of Random Number Generator Results

Figure 6 shows an example of what the results of each trial would look like. The user

inputs how many responses they want, 100 being the most, and how many die they want to roll.

Then, the generator prints a set of random results for the user.

Out of 500 trials, the player lost 351 times, won regular ($2) 126 times, and won double

($4) 23 times. The total number of times a player would win overall is 149 times. To calculate

each relative frequency, one would divide the total number of the favorable outcome (winning,

winning double, or losing), and divide it by the total number of trials of 500. By doing those

calculations for each outcome, the relative frequency for winning regular was 0.2520, winning

double was 0.0460, winning altogether was 0.2980, and the relative frequency for losing was

calculated to be 0.7020. To calculate expected value, the maker would take each relative

frequency and multiply it by the gain or loss of the players money, taking in account the $1 it

costs to play

E ( x )=( 0.25201 )+ ( 0.04603 ) + ( 0.70201 )=0.3120

Figure 7. Expected Value Calculation

It is expected that the game operator will make approximately 31 cents per play from this

simulation. This is very close to the actual value of 32 cents per play.
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Simulation 3: Java

The third simulation that was designed for Daring Disney was a java program. This

simulation used a java program to simulate the playing of the game 5,000 times. A copy of the

program can be found in Appendix A. The program randomly throws two die and calculates

the sum. It then searches through for which card packet to pick and randomly selects a card to

determine if a player would win, win double, or lose.

Figure 8. Summary of java simulation

Figure 8 above shows the results from the simulation. Out of 5,000 trials, the player lost

3,423 times, won regular ($2) 1,393 times, and won double ($4) 184 times. The total number of

times a player would win overall is 1,577 times.

To calculate each relative frequency, one would divide the total number of the favorable

outcome (winning, winning double, or losing), and divide it by the total number of trials of

5,000. As calculated by the Java program, the relative frequency for winning regular was 0.2786,

winning double was 0.0368, winning altogether was 0.3154, and the relative frequency for losing

was calculated to be 0.6846. To calculate expected value, the maker would take each relative
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frequency and multiply it by the gain or loss of the players money, taking in account the $1 it

costs to play

E ( x )=( 0.27861 )+ ( 0.03683 )+ ( 0.68461 )=0.4967

Figure 9. Expected Value Calculation

It is expected that the game operator will make approximately 49 cents per play from this

Java simulation. There is a 27.86% chance of gaining $1 (the player would win $2 but it costs $1

to play), and there is a 3.68% chance of gaining $3 (winning $4 by drawing a red 7 but it costs

$1 to play.) There is also a 68.46% chance of losing $1 (not winning anything but still paying $1

to play).

All three simulations came fairly close to the theoretical probability, but Simulation 2 was

the closest to the actual value. While all three simulations used the same numbers and

probabilities, Simulation 2 was surprisingly the closest. Although Simulation 3 had more trials,

due to the Law of Large Numbers, simulation 3 should have in fact been the closest to the actual

value. This law explains how as more trials are conducted the relative frequency approaches the

theoretical probability, which is what was somewhat demonstrated with these three simulations.

Summary:

Overall, Daring Disneys idea of rolling a die and then picking a card with the option of

winning regular ($2), winning double ($4), and not winning at all would make an amazing

carnival game. It only costs $1 to play making it very affordable for players to play multiple

times. Players are more likely to play three or four times because it seems so easy to win. There

is also a win double making players more interested because they have a chance to win $4

instead of the normal $2. Also, the many Disney lovers out there will be attracted to the game

board right away.

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About the game itself, the theoretical probability of winning was 0.2776, winning double

was 0.0318, and losing was calculated to be 0.6906. The theoretical probability of losing is much

greater than that of winning. The relative frequencies that were calculated using simulations that

simulated the game. Simulation thee that was played 5,000 times came very close to the

theoretical probabilities. It was calculated that on average the player would lose 32 cents, and

this would be earned by the game operator. This game looks fair, but in reality it is designed to

cause the creator to gain money. As for the makers of Daring Disney, all the princesses had a

magical time building together.

For the essay itself, each princess had her very own special role. To start, Princess

Brittany created the description and rules, while actually playing the game herself and running

the first simulation. Princess Danielle calculated the second theoretical probability, and ran the

second simulation of Daring Disney. Lastly, Princess Daniella wrote the first theoretical

probability, and created and wrote the Java program for the third simulation. Overall, Daring

Disney was a fantastic game to create and is an amazing game for customers to play.

Works Cited
Two Dice Probability Table. Digital image. Mathallaround. Mathallaround, n.d. Web. 28 Feb.

2016. <https://mathallaround.wordpress.com/tag/part-3/>.

"Dice Roll Simulator." Random Number Generator. Web. 08 Mar. 2016. <http://www.print-and-

play.com/extra/dice-roll-simulator.html>.