a.

Expected Varianc
Activity Duration e
0.4444
Clear Site 10.00 44
Excavation 4.00 1
Pour Concrete 0.1111
Footings 3.00 11
Exterior Walls 5.00 0.81
0.1111
Brick 3.00 11
0.4011
Landscaping 4.00 11
0.0277
Sidewalks 2.00 78
Exterior 0.1111
windows/doors 2.00 11
0.6944
Plumbing 4.00 44
0.0277
Electrical 3.00 78
Seat Suppliers 6.00 4
Drywall/Interior
Finish 6.00 2.25
0.1111
Final Seating 4.00 11
0.1111
Concessions 2.00 11
Steel Support 3.3611
Structure 7.00 11
0.4444
Final Roofing 5.00 44
0.4444
Concrete Slab 4.00 44
Permanent Wood 0.1111
Floor 6.00 11
0.4444
Polish and Finish 3.00 44
0.1111
Paint 2.00 11
Final Inspection 1.00 0.0625
b.
Activity EST EFT LST LFT Slack
Clear Site 0 10 0 10 0
Excavation 0 4 2 6 2
Pour Concrete
Footings 4 7 6 9 2
Exterior Walls 7 12 9 14 2
Brick 12 15 23 26 11
Landscaping 12 16 18 22 6
Sidewalks 16 18 22 24 6
Exterior
windows/doors 18 20 24 26 6
Plumbing 12 16 16 20 4
Electrical 12 15 17 20 5
Seat Suppliers 12 18 14 20 2
Drywall/Interior
Finish 16 22 20 26 4
Final Seating 18 22 20 24 2
Concessions 22 24 24 26 2
Steel Support
Structure 12 19 14 21 2
Final Roofing 19 24 21 26 2
Concrete Slab 10 14 10 14 0
Permanent Wood
Floor 14 20 14 20 0
Polish and Finish 20 23 20 23 0
Paint 23 25 23 25 0
Final Inspection 25 26 25 26 0

c. Step 1
The critical path of a network is the path where the slacks of each
activity are 0. Therefore, the only critical path is 1,17,18,19,20,21.

Step2: The distribution of the paths follow CLT, the central limit theorem (CLT) states
that, given certain conditions, the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of
iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined (finite) expected
value and finite variance, will be approximately normally distributed, regardless of the
underlying distribution.

Step 3: For each critical path, calculate a path duration for 90%, 95% and 99% confidence
that the path will complete at or before that duration.
The 90, 95 and 99% confidence that the critical path are 27.63017, 28.093, 28.9518
respectively.

Step 4: The Paths arent actually independent since the activities of the paths overlap.

Step 5: Done in excel under sheet 1

d. Done in excel under the Linear program sheet.

e. Done in excel under Sheet 2.

f. Compare the critical path tasks in (b) and (c) above to the critical task analysis from the
simulation in (e). Also compare the 90%, 95% and 99%confidence duration calculated in
(c) to that calculated in (e). Explain and discuss any differences in results. Is the additional
work necessary to perform the simulation analysis worth the trouble? Why or why not? If
you were Karen Matthew, which technique would you prefer? Why?