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Changes of Global Petroleum Product Demand
M B/D
120
102.2
100 8.2
8
80.1 8.6
80 Residual Fuel
8.7 35.5
8.9 33.1 Diesel/Gas Oil
10.4
30.1
60 26.2 Kero/Jet Fuel
25 8.4
23.2 7.9 Gasoline
7.4
40 6.5 6.7 Naphtha
6.7 24.7 25.7
23.8 LPG
22.1 22.3
21.2
20 9.1 10.1
6.3 7.6
5 5.7
9.1 9.8 11.7 13 14.3
7.8
0
2005 2010 2013 2020 2025 2030
3
Incremental Global Petroleum Product Demand
Diesel/gas oil will dominate future demand growth, accounting
for 42 percent of the incremental demand increase
5
4.5
3.8 3.4
1.7
0
-0.5
-5
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kero/Jet Diesel/Gas Residual
Fuel oil Fuel
4
Global Demand Growth by Region, 2013 & 2030
Asia will account for 49 percent of global product demand growth
The Middle East and South America also will have significant growth
Unit: M B/D
5
Agenda
6
Demand Change of Petroleum Products by Country
Asian demand growth will account for 10.8 million B/D total during 2013 to 2030
Growth of China: 6.0 M B/D, India: 2.5 M B/D
M B/D
16
14
12
10
8
2013
6
2030
4
7
Changes of Demand & Balance in China
Growth in Chinas refining production is projected to continue through the forecast
period on the back of capacity expansion (2020-2030: + 3.86 M B/D)
The product mix will shift towards light and middle distillates as additional
conversion units are commissioned
2005
2010
2014
2015
2016
2020
2025
2030
2013
LPG Naphtha Gasoline
Kero/Jet Fuel Diesel/Gas Oil Residual Fuel
8
Changes of Demand & Balance in India
Oil demand growth remain subdued with economic growth slowing down and
expected increase in prices due to poor exchange rate and removal of fuel subsidies
Private refiners, Reliance and Essar will continue exporting refined products
2,500 400
2,000 200
1,500 00
1,000 -200
500 -400
- -600
1,000 0
-100
800
-200
600
-300
400
-400
200
-500
- -600
1,400 200
00
1,200
-200
1,000
-400
800
-600
600
-800
400 -1,000
200 -1,200
- -1,400
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2020
2025
2030
13
Biofuel Usage in Asian Countries
Asian countries are increasing biofuel use to secure national energy,
improve industry, and agriculture sector.
China
India
Thailand
Malaysia
Bioethanol
Indonesia
Biodiesel
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Biofuels in China
Policy: 12th 5 year Plan Target for 2015
Objective: Bioenergy is viewed as one of the strategic emerging industries.
China will develop second generation biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol,
algae-based biodiesel
Ethanol Biodiesel
target 3 million ton (E10 in designated provinces) 1 million ton
feedstock corn, wheat, cassava, sweet sorghum used cooking oil
(Promoting non-food feedstock)
production 2.8 billion L (2.2 million ton) 1.13 billion L (1 million ton)
Billion L Billion L
160 Bioethanol 8.0% 160 Biodiesel 0.8%
140 140
120 6.0% 120 0.6%
100 100
80 4.0% 80 0.4%
60 60
40 2.0% 40 0.2%
20 20
0 0.0% 0 0.0%
2010
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Ethanol Biodiesel
target 9 million L/d (2021), E10, E20, E85 5.97 million L/d (2021)
feedstock molasses (60-70%), cassava crude palm oil
production 2.6 million L/D (2013) 2.9 million L/D (2013)
Billion L Billion L
10 Bioethanol 20% 14 Biodiesel 7%
9 18%
8 16% 12 6%
7 14% 10 5%
6 12%
5 10% 8 4%
4 8% 6 3%
3 6%
2 4% 4 2%
1 2% 2 1%
0 0%
0 0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Gasoline Ethanol Blend Rate(%)
Source: GAIN Report Diesel, on-road BDF Blend Rate(%) 16
Biofuels in India
Policy: National Biofuel Policy (December 24, 2009)
Objective: to use biofuel as a measure to provide a higher degree of
national energy security by supplementing conventional energy resources
and reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels
Ethanol Biodiesel
target E5 (B20)
feedstock molasses used cooking oil, animal fats, jatropha
production 182 million L (2013) 38 million L (2013)
Billion L Billion L
Bioethanol 60 Biodiesel 0.12
30 3.0
25 2.5 50 0.10
20 2.0 40 0.08
15 1.5 30 0.06
10 1.0
20 0.04
5 0.5
10 0.02
0 0.0
0 0.00
2008
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Ethanol Biodiesel
target 15% (2025) 20% (2025)
feedstock molasses crude palm oil
production none for fuel (220 million L, 2014) 930 million L (2013)
Billion L
30 Biodiesel 12%
25 10%
20 8%
15 6%
10 4%
5 2%
0 0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Billion L Biodiesel
6 12.0%
5 10.0%
4 8.0%
3 6.0%
2 4.0%
1 2.0%
0 0.0%
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Thank you for your attention.
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