Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Inside Page upgrade TASCO to Neutral from Underperform and raise our 2017 target price
to Bt25.0 (from Bt14.4) as we revise up our 2017/18 earnings estimates by
Fund Flows i
40.4%/83.1%. The earnings upgrade reflects a better-than-expected regional
Bond Trading i asphalt selling price that recovered faster than our previous forecast and
Top Ten Short Sale ii increased confidence in the companys strategy to cope with a crude oil price
Thai NVDR Trading Data by Stock ii
uptrend. Our concern that GPM could be negatively affected by rising oil prices
has eased after the company hedged its long crude oil positions to around 50%
Daily Driver Stats (Market Summary) iii
of its total crude cost in 2017. We believe the company will continue this strategy
Daily Driver Stats (Commodity) iv in 2018. The company is also conducting a feasibility study on doubling its
Director Trade v refinery capacity to 60 KBD, which will be considered at its 2018 AGM.
EGCO (Outperform) - 4Q16 Review Earnings beat our estimate (page
Insider Trading vi
7) 4Q16 core profit of Bt2.08bn jumped 52.5% YoY, fell 25.3% QoQ. The result
Foreign Ownership - top ten gainers and losers vi
is 60% ahead of consensus estimates of Bt1.30bn. The YoY growth was mainly
Economic Calendar vii due to 1) a higher gross profit of Bt680mn from a full quarter of operation after
Company's Calendar ix COD of KN4 (gas, 930 MWe) in late June 2016, which replaced KN2-3 (gas, 748
MWe); 2) a 10.6% increase in share of profit from associates and JVs owing to
a higher contribution of SEG (geothermal, 45 MWe) in Indonesia after it
obtained a 40% increase in tariff in late June 2016; and 3) lower SG&A expense
by Bt192mn. The QoQ decline was due mainly to a Bt384mn increase in SG&A
Kasikorn Securities PCL
expense and a lower share of profit from associates and JVs, mainly from a full
Research Department availability payment of BLCP and KK2. 4Q16 net profit was reported at Bt827mn,
a decline of 46.3% YoY and 71% QoQ. This was due to a FX loss of Bt1.17bn
Contact: 02-696-0031
on EGCOs USD loans.
Thai Stock Market Trading by Investor Type NVDR Net Buy/Sell International Markets Commodity Market
SET Index 1,564.42 Investor Type SET TFEX Top Buy Net Top Sell Net DJIA 118.95pt/0.58% Oil - Nymex (USD) 54.06/bbl/0.66USD
Change -14.05pt/-0.89% (Btm) (Contracts) SCB 186 ADVANC -342 S&P 14.22pt/0.6% Gold - London (USD) 1,229.24/Oz/-6.53USD
Turnover (Btm) 44,878.82 Foreign -659 -1,956 PTTGC 119 AOT -148 NASDAX 27.37pt/0.47% DXYO 101.37/0.42%
PER (x) 18.31 Institution -199 1,813 IVL 111 JAS -142 CAC 23.77pt/0.49% Bt/USD 35.04/0.03%
PBV (x) 1.96 Retail 1,310 143 SCC 84 KBANK -123 FTSE -25.03pt/-0.34% USD/Euro 1.05/-0.76%
Div Yield (%) 2.93 Proprietary -452 - CPALL 73 INTUCH -121 DAX 139.87pt/1.18% 10Y US treasury yld 2.43/0.59%
BCP (Neutral) - Outlook for 2017 less than inspiring (page 12) Reiterate
Neutral with target price of Bt32.5: Our rating is premised on a lack of upside to
our YE2017 target price and flattish earnings outlook for 1Q17. Additionally, we
expect a stream of earnings downgrades for FY2018 from the market
(Bloomberg consensus estimate is Bt5.8bn for FY2018). However, BCP is among
the cheapest of the five Thai petrochemical refinery stocks under our coverage
in terms of PBV, trading at 1.05x versus 1.21x PBV for its peers. Therefore, we
maintain a Neutral rating on BCP and a target price of Bt32.5, which is a sum-
of-the-parts valuation.
Last year, the emerging markets provided much more attractive returns compared
with the global market with the SET climbing 19.8%. That story is now changing.
Funds have poured into developed markets amid expectations their economies will
grow at a solid pace. The U.S. in particular looks likely to enjoy a strong recovery
in light of new fiscal stimulus planned by new President Donald Trump. Bloomberg
consensus shows strong EPS growth estimates for the U.S., Europe, South Korea,
Taiwan and Japan. Meanwhile, our coverage universe is expected to generate a
mere 4.17% EPS growth.
KResearch Center has forecast flat growth of 3.3% for Thai GDP for 2017. This,
coupled with our moderate EPS growth outlook, will likely damp fund inflows. We
expect the SET to see subdued trading sentiment in the absence of fresh inflows
and given the limited amounts of local money. As such, it is highly likely the market
will see selling on the fact once the earnings season comes to an end.
SET Index braced for a sharp decline. Adding pressure to the markets
downside risk is potential weakness in the baht, which could fuel fund outflows, as
the USD looks set to gain strength in the near term on the back of 1) Trumps
planned implementation of fiscal stimulus; 2) potential Fed rate hikes over the
course of the year; and 3) European political unrest, which appears set to weaken
the British pound and the euro. Also, foreign investors of late have gone short in
about a net 36,000 contracts of SET50 Futures, most of which were short S50M07,
as evidenced by the higher Open Interest. This reflects foreign investors negative
view of the SET in the medium term. This could hurt the market in late 1Q17 if
positions are not rolled over, given the high number of long positions at more than
190,000 contracts.
Investment strategy. The SET Index looks set to decline to test 1555 within a
trading range of 1555-1562. We maintain our strategy of letting the profit run in
KKP, KTB, LH, SPCG and GLOW on their expected strong dividends; and in MEGA,
CHG, TKN and PTTEP on their attractive upsides.
Analyst
Prakit Sirivattanaket
Prakit.si@kasikornsecurities.com
Industry highlights
January loans dropped by 0.9% MoM. Loans in January dropped by 0.9%
MoM but increased by 0.5% YoY. The loan decline was due to repayments from
across segments, and mainly repayment of working capital and credit
card/personal loan repayments after the high season in 4Q16. We expect loan
growth to start picking up later in the year mainly from infrastructure investments
and construction businesses, as well as the retail segment (housing, credit card
and HP loans). We forecast 2017 sector loan growth of 5% compared to 2% in
2016.
TMBs loan growth outperformed its peers. Most banks reported negative
MoM loan growth except for TMB, which posted positive loan growth. KTB and KKP
posted flat loans MoM. TMBs loans grew by 1.5% MoM from all segments and
mainly for working capital in the corporate segment. KTBs government loans
picked up significantly by 7% MoM, but this was offset by a contraction in SME and
housing loans.
Valuation
We maintain our Overweight rating on the banking sector with KTB and BBL our
top picks. The sector is currently trading at -1.0SD its 10-year average.
Analyst
Jantana Taveeratanasilp
Jantana.ta@kasikornsecurities.com
Investment highlights
Revising up 2017-18 earnings forecasts. We revise up our 2017/18 earnings
forecasts by 40.4%/83.1% to reflect a better-than-expected regional asphalt
selling price that responded to a rise in crude oil price sooner than our previous
expectation and also to reflect the companys successful hedging strategy during
the period of rising crude oil prices. The average asphalt selling price in Jan. rose
to USD49.3/bbl or by 28.1% from 4Q16. We believe the price should be sustained
at an average USD51.0/bbl in 2017 before rising to USD57.0/bbl in 2018. The key
reason behind the earnings upgrade is our raised 2017/18 GRM assumptions to
15.3%/13.9% from 10.9%/7.7% that is also supported by a hedging gain.
Valuation
We upgrade TASCO to a Neutral rating after adjusting up our target price to Bt25.0
from Bt14.4 to reflect a better-than-expected regional asphalt selling price and the
companys recent oil hedging strategy. Our TP is based on a PER multiple of 12.0x,
Analyst
which is close to +2.0SDV its six-year average PER. Although upside to our target
Sorapong Jakteerungkul
price is limited, rising asphalt prices and a potential strong earnings performance
Sorapong.j@kasikornsecurities.com
in 1Q17 may provide a short-term trading opportunity.
Anurak Suwanichkul
(Assistant Analyst)
Anurak.s@kasikornsecurities.com
FY2016 core profit of Bt9.16bn grew 8.3% YoY. The result is 5.6% above
our estimate of Bt8.65bn and 7.7% ahead of consensus estimates of Bt8.50bn,
due mainly to a higher-than-expected share of profit from associates and JVs. The
YoY growth was driven by the commencement of operation of KN4 and a higher
contribution from SEG, BPCL and QPL. FY2016 net profit came in at Bt8.32bn, up
a strong 118% YoY on the back of better core earnings and a lower FX loss of
Bt326mn vs Bt3.60bn in 2015.
Analyst
Jakapong Chawengsri
Jakapong.c@kasikornsecurities.com
Analyst
Tan Chirasittikorn
Tan.c@kasikornsecurities.com
1Q17 earnings may drop YoY but flat QoQ. This is because of the heavy flood
in the South of Thailand in January 2017 because ERW has 7 HOP INNs in the
South compared with total HOP INNs of 22 hotels. The implication is that 1Q17 is
unlikely to be high season as usual.
Maintain Neutral rating with TP of Bt4.86. Although we like ERW as its recent
round of investment has reached the break-even point and it is now seeing
economies of scale kick in, resulting in sharp earnings growth, we are concerned
that it has overreached with its new HOP INN brand. The increase in room supply
reflects expectations of high demand but OR will be the key yardstick by which to
judge the success of the business. We maintain a Neutral rating, our target
EV/EBITDA at 12.89x and a 2017 target price of Bt4.86. This is equal to a forward
PER of 35.02x in 2017 and 27.78x in 2018.
Analyst
Pongrat Ratanatavanananda
Pongrat.r@kasikornsecurities.com
Maintain Neutral rating. We maintain our Neutral rating on MAKRO with a target
price of Bt36.50, pegged at a PER multiple of 27.5x 2017 EPS, or 0.75SD above its
10-year historical mean. MAKRO announced a cash dividend for its 2016 operation
of Bt0.49/share, equal to a 1.46% dividend yield. XD is March 7.
Analyst
Tareetip Wongsaengpaiboon
Tareetip.w@kasikornsecurities.com
4Q16 loans exceeded expectations, up 52% YoY and 12% QoQ. Net loans
totaled Bt17.1bn, up 52% YoY and 12% QoQ. The growth came from continued
branch expansion and strong loan demand for both vehicle and land-backed loans.
NIM widened to 26.1% from 25.6% in 3Q16 and exceeded our assumption of
25.4%. The higher NIM was due to a significant 45 bps QoQ increase in yield from
an expansion of high-yield SME loans, while funding costs fell slightly by 10 bps
QoQ. Overall, net interest income increased by 48% YoY and 14% QoQ. PPOP of
Bt785mn was in line with our assumption, or growth of 49.8% YoY and 9.4% QoQ.
Non-interest income grew by 29% YoY but was flat QoQ and lower than expected
owing to a lower amount of late payment fees from SAWADs improved asset
quality.
Asset quality improved for the seventh consecutive quarter. The NPL ratio
(loans overdue >3 months) declined more than expected to 3.63% from 4.46% in
3Q16 as a result of loan write-offs and improved debt management. NPLs declined
by 9.1% QoQ. The coverage ratio fell slightly from 64% to 61%, which was lower
than expected. This occurred because of much lower-than-expected provisions of
Bt24mn vs our forecast of Bt76mn. Although we believe SAWADs loss given default
(LGD) is lower than its peers because of its low loan to value (LTV) ratio, we believe
the low coverage ratio could put pressure the stocks performance.
Analyst
Jantana Taveeratanasilp
Jantana.ta@kasikornsecurities.com
SG&A-to-sales swings widen bottom/top line growth gap. 4Q16 GPM fell
slightly to 37.0% from 37.8% in 4Q15 and 37.7% in 3Q16. However, this factor
was not the key to the swings in 4Q16 earnings against the top line rather it was
movement in the SG&A-to-sales ratio. In 4Q16, the ratio rose to 11.4% from 8.9%
in 4Q15 due to the higher number of developing projects on hand and
compensation payments, but declined strongly from 13.4% in 3Q16 thanks to
greater economies of scale and lower-than-expected marketing expenses as
Thailand entered the mourning period. The change in the SG&A-to-sales ratio was
thus the major reason for the deeper earnings contraction YoY and the positive
earnings growth QoQ relative to the top line.
Analyst
Sorapong Jakteerungkul
Sorapong.j@kasikornsecurities.com
Key reasons for 4Q16 earnings disappointment: The main drag on 4Q16
earnings was weakness in the oil marketing business, which was negatively
affected by both a sharp lowering of marketing margin (down Bt0.24 QoQ to
Bt0.56/liter due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices) and a heavy SG&A expense
burden. On top of record normal year-end expenses, the company incurred extra
expenses for personnel, advertising and other marketing costs, additives for new
oil products, and set-up costs for Bangchak Retail Company (BCR) and SPAR.
The lower gross margin and higher expenses dragged the EBITDA of BCPs
marketing business down to near zero. Meanwhile, refinery business
outperformed the budget with a high refinery intake of 115-116 KBD, GRM rising
toward USD6.5/bbl and oil inventory gain of USD2.4/bbl.
Impacts
We maintain our FY2017-18 earnings forecasts at Bt5.4bn and Bt4.4bn. We see
slight downside to BCPGs FY2017 net profit from delays to the start-up of solar
farm projects in Japan, but our conservative retail oil marketing margin of
Bt0.7/liter (compared with managements guidance of Bt0.75-Bt0.80/liter) provides
upside that should fully offset any downside to BCPGs earnings. Our FY2018
earnings forecast is on a downward trend (-18% YoY) as it incorporates the
potential impact of refinery shutdowns for maintenance.
Recommendation
Reiterate Neutral with target price of Bt32.5: Our rating is premised on a
lack of upside to our YE2017 target price and flattish earnings outlook for 1Q17.
Analyst Additionally, we expect a stream of earnings downgrades for FY2018 from the
Jakapong Chawengsri market (Bloomberg consensus estimate is Bt5.8bn for FY2018). However, BCP is
Jakapong.c@kasikornsecurities.com among the cheapest of the five Thai petrochemical refinery stocks under our
coverage in terms of PBV, trading at 1.05x versus 1.21x PBV for its peers.
Therefore, we maintain a Neutral rating on BCP and a target price of Bt32.5, which
is a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
Going forward in 2017, the company will focus on expansion for further
opportunities and optimize assets with a goal of reducing costs, which will apply to
projects under development, as well. It is studying a new EPC method in Japan
that utilizes robots, which could shorten the construction period for solar plants by
eight months.
The company maintained its capacity target of 1,000 MW installed by 2020 from
the current 418 MW on hand.
In domestic growth, the company will participate in the Hybrid SPP firm contract
bidding program totaling 300 MW. The NEPC plans to open bidding in 2H17.
Management was confident that it has the potential to obtain the quota as the SPP
Firm structure is limited to small players to allow them to engage in the bidding.
In addition, BCPG eyes solar cooperative phase 2 totaling 119 MW, which is
expected to be opened for bidding in 2H17, as well. The company believes it has
an advantage in terms of relationships with cooperatives.
In overseas growth, BCPG will maintain its focus on further acquisition of solar
farms in Japan, but will carefully consider whether they could provide a good return
on investment. The company is also looking for further projects mainly based in
the SEA region with interest in all types of renewable energy, i.e., solar, wind,
biomass, and geothermal.
Impact
Although we believe earnings in 2017 will recover from 2016 thanks to lower SG&A
expense from the absence of one-time expenses and a ramp-up of operations of
plants in Japan, we foresee 8-11% downside to our earnings forecast as
construction delays could result in COD of solar plants being later than this year.
This would result in earnings looking unattractive throughout 2017, with our
estimated 39.8% earnings growth, while growth will likely shift to 2018 instead.
Analyst
Jakapong Chawengsri Recommendation
Jakapong.c@kasikornsecurities.com We maintain our Neutral rating with a target price of Bt13.7, as potential 2017
earnings downside would have a limited impact on our TP. BCPG also has potential
Analyst upside from the acquisition of a wind farm in the Philippines (36 MW).
Tan Chirasittikorn
Tan.c@kasikornsecurities.com
Acquire all insured and paid-up shares of PurpleSol G.K., a limited company
incorporated in Japan in order to obtain power distribution certification granted
by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and other required licenses
including a grid-connection agreement with an electricity utility provider.
Acquire all insured and paid-up shares of SolarOne G.K., a limited company
incorporated in Japan, to obtain ownership and possessory rights to the projects
land, which has an approximate area of 2,080 rai.
Enter into a share purchase agreement with Kamisol Ltd as the seller, subject to
terms and conditions to be mutually agreed between the company and the seller.
Impacts
The investment cost is equal to Bt126.8mn per megawatt, slightly higher than the
market average cost per megawatt of Bt80-Bt110mn. Expected returns from the
project have not been disclosed.
As STEC will hold 40% in the abovementioned asset and holds 10% of TSE, its
effective stake in the project will be 46%, which implies a Bt9.0bn investment
value. Assuming the projects financing structure involves a debt/equity ratio of
4:1, STEC would need to inject cash of about Bt1.8bn as equity. Given its strong
financial position and net cash status, we believe STEC will be able to leverage up
comfortably in order to finance this investment project.
Recommendation
We maintain our Outperform rating on STEC with a 2017 target price of Bt33.00,
based on a PBV multiple of 4.8x, or 1.5SD above its historical mean. There is not
yet sufficient information to estimate the potential incremental value from the
project to STEC.
Analyst
Tareetip Wongsaengpaiboon
tareetip.w@kasikornsecurities.com
New bill on foreign quota for aviation. The cabinet yesterday approved a new bill on civil
aviation that authorizes the Civil Aviation Board (CAB) to decide the proportion of foreign ownership
in Thailand's aviation business. (Bangkok Post)
US grants one-year extension of GSP privileges for Thai products. The United States has
agreed to extend trade preferences for Thai products for another year. (The Nation)
Profits soar at top petrochem companies. Thailand's two major petrochemical companies have
reported a surge in combined net profit for last year of 54.2 per cent from the prior year to Bt41.79
billion. (The Nation)
Corporate News
BCPG close to renewable deal. BCPG Plc, an electricity-generating arm of SET-listed oil refiner
Bangchak Petroleum Plc (BCP), is continuing expanding its renewable power portfolio overseas,
saying it is in talks with a company in an Asian country. (Bangkok Post)
GSB, BAAC to provide emergency loans. The Government Savings Bank (GSB) and the Bank for
Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) are set to extend a total of 10 billion baht in
emergency loans to farmers and low-income earners as part of efforts to tackle the problem of loan
sharks. (Bangkok Post)
Telecom committee turns down TOTs plan for 4G partnership. TOT'S search for a strategic
partner to launch fourth-generation cellular services on its 2.3-gigahertz band hit a snag yesterday
when the telecom committee of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission
rejected its revised business plan. (The Nation)
Property Perfect, unit seek Bt11bn for growth. Property Perfect and its subsidiary Grand Asset
Hotel and Property, which are both listed developers, plan to raise Bt11.41 billion this year by
increasing registered capital, issuing debentures, establishing a real-estate investment trust (REIT)
and selling land. (The Nation)
Thai Union Group reports seventh consecutive year of record sales. Thai Union Group has
reported a 7.3-per-cent year-over-year rise in 2016 consolidated sales to a record Bt134.375 billion.
This is the seventh consecutive year of record sales. (The Nation)
Bangchak eyes 20% surge in gross earnings. Diversified oil refiner Bangchak Petroleum
targets growing its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by 20 per
cent this year, after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter 2016 results on Monday. (The Nation)
Minor upbeat on hotel, food outlook. Minor International is confident its hotel and food businesses
will put in strong performances this year, even though its net profit receded 2.7 per cent to Bt4.57
billion last year. (The Nation)
Fund Flows
Foreign net Buy/Sell in regional markets (USDmn)
17-Feb-17 20-Feb-17 21-Feb-17 5 Days 30 Days YTD 2016
Thailand 53.77 -7.78 -18.81 -4.52 -139.53 87.53 2,240.46
Indonesia -54.59 -12.06 -10.95 -105.72 28.98 -90.65 1,258.66
Philippine -0.95 -7.83 -11.10 -19.07 -107.80 -77.82 83.39
India 1,202.04 0.00 0.00 1,210.61 1,948.39 1,575.28 2,902.89
Taiwan 54.09 57.10 234.77 866.48 2,768.99 3,479.15 11,258.54
S. Korea 257.39 46.52 109.34 540.34 377.87 1,312.43 10,480.09
Vietnam -1.53 4.70 8.34 23.83 38.03 53.20 -344.70
Total 1,510.22 80.65 311.60 2,511.95 4,914.93 6,339.12 27,879.32
Source : Bloomberg
%Change 52 week
Current Index
1D 1W 1M 1Y YTD High Low
World Stock Index
Dow Jones 20,743.00 0.58% 1.16% 4.62% 24.66% 4.96% 20,743.00 16,391.99
S&P 500 2,365.38 0.60% 1.19% 4.14% 21.42% 5.65% 2,365.38 1,917.78
Nasdaq 5,865.95 0.47% 1.44% 5.59% 27.79% 8.97% 5,865.95 4,503.58
FTSE 100 7,274.83 -0.34% 0.09% 1.06% 19.34% 1.85% 7,337.81 5,867.18
DAX 11,967.49 1.18% 1.66% 2.90% 25.80% 4.24% 11,967.49 9,167.80
CAC 4,888.76 0.49% -0.14% 0.79% 13.31% 0.54% 4,924.86 3,984.72
NIKKEI 19,381.44 0.68% 0.74% 1.27% 19.72% 1.40% 19,594.16 14,952.02
Hang Seng 23,963.63 -0.76% 1.10% 4.71% 23.75% 8.92% 24,146.08 18,888.75
MSCI Ex. JP 390.24 0.17% 0.95% 5.48% 25.87% 9.85% 390.24 306.21
S&P Volatility (VIX Index) 11.57 0.70% 7.73% 0.26% -41.60% -17.59% 25.76 10.58
Dow Jones Real Estate 315.61 1.25% 1.71% 2.78% 12.51% 3.53% 338.01 274.01
Dow Jones Financial Sector 530.13 0.63% 1.15% 5.25% 33.90% 5.32% 530.13 388.35
Dow Jones Construction Material 666.04 1.33% 1.30% 3.85% 26.66% 5.57% 670.73 500.03
Dow Jones Energy 591.72 0.72% -1.64% -3.60% 23.73% -4.59% 638.25 469.65
Dow Jones Technology 1,667.44 0.55% 1.47% 6.86% 34.64% 10.61% 1,667.44 1,213.63
Dow Jones Health Care 785.79 0.48% 1.50% 5.93% 11.64% 7.46% 796.93 689.60
Dow Jones Consumer Services 814.09 0.67% 1.33% 3.76% 16.29% 6.42% 814.09 682.73
SET Indices
SET Index 1,564.42 -0.89% -0.50% 0.09% 16.48% 1.39% 1,591.00 1,320.19
SET 100 Index 2,213.02 -0.90% -0.20% 0.51% 15.73% 1.60% 2,251.19 1,876.96
SET 50 Index 981.03 -0.88% -0.06% 0.85% 14.14% 1.68% 998.44 844.43
MAI Index 624.64 -1.55% -1.03% -2.20% 24.96% 1.36% 646.02 493.07
Energy 20,799.30 -0.35% 1.77% -0.12% 31.49% 1.34% 21,627.10 15,610.11
Bank 528.23 -0.99% -0.54% 3.37% 11.62% 5.81% 534.81 440.37
Property 274.52 -1.20% -1.66% -1.37% 10.89% 1.72% 290.01 243.68
Transportation 275.98 -1.99% -0.51% -1.90% 4.88% -1.52% 300.22 256.38
Construction Materials 13,543.41 -0.49% -0.77% 1.61% 10.25% 4.04% 14,187.87 12,083.55
ICT 156.33 -1.44% -0.99% 1.20% 2.61% 5.90% 173.26 140.39
Electronic 2,160.94 -1.14% -1.50% -1.03% 13.12% 0.81% 2,237.93 1,597.34
Commerce 35,366.25 -0.44% -1.53% -1.54% 25.27% -4.32% 37,477.05 27,501.27
Hospitality & Leisure 588.45 -0.38% -0.51% -1.09% 1.31% -1.93% 646.81 563.74
Fixed Income and FX
US 2-Y yield 1.21 1.56% -2.24% 1.53% 52.09% 1.55% 1.27 0.55
US 5-Y yield 1.92 0.97% -2.20% -0.86% 54.86% -0.39% 2.09 0.94
US 10-Y yield 2.43 0.59% -1.65% -1.53% 37.83% -0.63% 2.60 1.36
US Ted Spread 0.54 0.00% 7.67% -1.56% 65.49% 7.40% 0.69 0.30
Thai 2-Y yield 1.59 -0.23% -1.30% -0.23% 6.95% -6.34% 1.75 1.36
Thai 5-Y yield 2.14 0.25% -0.02% 0.25% 22.08% -1.53% 2.31 1.47
Thai 10-Y yield 2.74 0.32% -0.06% 0.32% 28.97% 2.81% 2.90 1.54
Thai TED Spread 0.16 -1.09% 1.09% -0.88% -25.58% 71.66% 0.25 0.07
Dollar Index 101.37 0.42% 0.12% 0.63% 3.28% -0.82% 103.30 92.63
French CDS USD SR 5Y 69.16 2.64% 24.91% 75.83% 85.48% 86.87% 69.16 27.26
Greece 5Yr USD CDS 5124.67 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5,124.67 5,124.67
Portugal 5Yr USD CDS 290.23 0.19% 2.92% 7.74% -10.89% 5.92% 348.99 237.83
Ireland 5Yr USD CDS 68.66 0.00% 2.90% 9.57% 3.35% 7.70% 70.26 57.81
Spain 5Yr USD CDS 81.54 1.21% 2.26% 13.47% -27.90% 7.83% 131.55 66.08
Italy 5Yr USD CDS 194.77 0.89% 7.41% 30.25% 34.13% 23.89% 194.77 112.90
German 5Yr USD CDS 25.10 0.16% 11.30% 26.54% 5.53% 15.20% 25.10 15.71
US 5Yr CDS 19.89 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.11% 0.00% 20.43 19.19
Thailand 5Yr CDS 58.94 -6.77% -7.93% -21.59% -61.89% -27.76% 160.79 58.94
Indonesia 5Yr CDS 132.17 -2.42% -0.38% -11.49% -44.18% -16.29% 242.66 132.17
Philippines 5Yr CDS 85.28 -3.09% 0.66% -16.39% -29.68% -22.24% 134.81 84.33
USD : EURO 1.05 -0.76% -0.73% -0.92% -4.35% -0.08% 1.16 1.04
USD : POUND 0.81 0.46% 0.41% -1.03% 12.70% -0.89% 0.83 0.67
USD : Yen 113.69 0.45% 0.25% -1.29% 0.56% -2.67% 118.35 99.99
USD : Yuan 6.88 0.09% 0.30% 0.08% 5.32% -0.86% 6.96 6.46
Source: Bloomberg
%Change 52 week
Current Index
1D 1W 1M 1Y YTD High Low
Current Price Related Stocks
Nymex Futures 1 M (USD/bbl) 54.06 1.24% 1.62% 3.13% 64.92% 0.63% 54.06 31.87 PTT, PTTEP
GRM (USD/bbl) 6.52 1.72% -13.64% -1.36% 16.22% -6.72% 11.20 2.87 PTTGC,TOP,IRPC,ESSO
Newcastle Coal Price (USD/tonne) 78.49 0.00% -3.79% -6.34% 48.82% -14.92% 112.90 49.55 BANPU,LANNA,UMS
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 778.00 2.77% 13.58% -15.89% 137.92% -19.04% 1,257.00 318.00 TTA , P SL, RCL, JUTHA , ASIM A R
Gold (USD/ounce) 1,229.24 -0.53% 0.06% 2.44% -0.29% 6.01% 1,373.99 1,130.70
Thai Gold Bar (Bath/15.244 g) 20,510.00 -0.34% 0.34% 1.23% -1.71% 3.48% 22,990.00 19,330.00
Near Month Gold Future (Baht) 20,350.00 -0.25% 0.49% 0.74% -1.21% 3.56% 22,700.00 19,150.00
Silver (USD/ounce) 1,789.00 -0.50% -0.08% 5.92% 17.93% 10.16% 2,071.00 1,475.00
Copper Spot (USD/MT) 6,045.50 -0.21% 0.69% 5.51% 28.23% 9.46% 6,103.50 4,495.75
CRB Index 192.05 -0.04% -0.12% -1.01% 18.79% -0.24% 195.82 160.44
Zinc (USD/tonne) 2,875.00 -0.31% -0.96% 3.90% 63.54% 11.61% 2,924.00 1,730.00 PDI
Malaysian Palm Oil (MYR/tonne) 3,198.00 0.00% -2.72% -3.03% 30.90% -0.02% 3,348.00 2,296.50 TVO, UVAN, UPOIC
Sugar Price (US cent/lb) 20.74 2.37% 1.82% 2.57% 45.14% 7.74% 22.91 14.20 KBS,KSL, KTIS, BRR
Soybeans (USD/lb) 10.11 -1.70% -1.82% -3.83% 18.55% 2.51% 11.68 8.51
Soybean Oil (USD/pound) 31.02 -2.67% -4.52% -7.82% 5.05% -5.77% 37.43 27.83 TVO, UVAN, UPOIC
Soybean Meal (USD/short ton) 339.00 0.00% 1.07% -2.36% 25.32% 4.89% 424.80 270.50
Rubber (JPY/kg) 292.00 -1.02% -10.54% 1.28% 87.66% 10.65% 351.40 147.20 STA, TRUBB
Chicken - (Bt/kg) 40.50 0.00% 0.00% 3.18% -2.41% -1.22% 43.50 34.75 CPF,GFPT
Pork (Bt/kg) 59.75 0.00% -2.65% -2.65% -19.53% -10.00% 77.63 59.00 CPF
Ethylene (USD/tonne) 1,290.00 0.00% 4.03% 17.27% 32.99% 17.27% 1,290.00 910.00
Propyene (USD/tonne) 965.00 0.00% 4.32% 13.53% 62.18% 14.20% 965.00 580.00
HDPE (USD/tonne) 1,200.00 0.00% 0.84% 5.26% 6.19% 2.56% 1,200.00 1,090.00
PVC CFR Far East (USD/tonne) 950.00 0.0% 2.2% 5.0% 24.2% 5.6% 960.00 730.00
Naptha (USD/tonne) 510.00 -0.20% -3.57% -0.73% 51.11% 2.72% 528.88 308.25
Ethylene Spread (Olefin) 780.00 0.13% 9.69% 33.05% 23.32% 29.25% 835.00 500.25 PTTGC
Propylene Spread (Olefin) 455.00 0.22% 14.86% 35.32% 76.70% 30.56% 466.00 246.50 PTTGC
HDPE Spread (Olefin) 690.00 0.15% 4.37% 10.18% -12.93% 2.45% 810.00 612.75 PTTGC, SCC
Hot Rolled Coil (USD/tonne) 477.50 0.00% 0.53% -2.55% 78.50% -3.54% 499.00 267.50 SSI, GSTEL, GJS
Slab (USD/tonne) 415.00 0.00% 2.47% -1.19% 74.74% -1.19% 422.50 237.50 SSI
Scrap (USD/tonne) 262.50 0.00% 12.18% -2.78% 42.28% -5.41% 322.00 173.00 TSTH, GSTEL, GJS
Spread HRC-Slab (USD/tonne) 62.50 0.00% -10.71% -10.71% 108.33% -16.67% 87.50 17.50 SSI
Source : Bloomberg, SET Smart
Director Trade
Director Trade
Transaction Stock Types of Name of Management Transaction Avg Price Amount Total Remark
Date Securities (Bt) (shares) (Bt)
20-Feb-17 K Common share CHAYAWAT PISESSITH Sell 6.30 5,000,000 31,500,000
20-Feb-17 EPCO Common share YUTH CHINSUPAKUL Buy 7.53 200,000 1,506,000
20-Feb-17 KIAT Common share KIATICHAI MONSEREENUSORN Buy 0.69 1,625,000 1,121,250
20-Feb-17 KIAT W arrant KIATICHAI MONSEREENUSORN Sell 0.24 4,704,000 1,128,960
20-Feb-17 PSH Common share RATTANA PROMSAWAD Buy 22.40 100,000 2,240,000
17-Feb-17 SUSCO W arrant MONGKOL SIMAROJ Sell 0.87 900,000 783,000
Source : www.sec.or.th
Insider Trading
Change 1W (Btmn) Change 1M (Btmn) Change 3M (Btmn) Change 6M (Bt mn) Change YTD (Bt mn)
Economic Calendar
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior Revised
02/23/2017 02/27 Thailand Car Sales Jan -- -- 86858 --
02/24/2017 14:30 Thailand Foreign Reserves 17-Feb-17 -- -- $180.3b --
02/24/2017 14:30 Thailand Forward Contracts 17-Feb-17 -- -- $23.2b --
02/27/2017 Thailand Customs Exports YoY Jan -- -- 6.20% --
02/27/2017 Thailand Customs Imports YoY Jan -- -- 10.30% --
02/27/2017 Thailand Customs Trade Balance Jan -- -- $938m --
02/27/2017 02/28 Thailand Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA YoY Jan -- -- 0.50% --
02/27/2017 02/28 Thailand Capacity Utilization ISIC Jan -- -- 63.3 --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand Exports YoY Jan -- -- 5.60% --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand Exports Jan -- -- $18072m --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand Imports YoY Jan -- -- 10.50% --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand Imports Jan -- -- $16025m --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand Trade Balance Jan -- -- $2047m --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand BoP Current Account Balance Jan -- -- $3719m --
02/28/2017 14:30 Thailand BoP Overall Balance Jan -- -- -$3503m --
03/01/2017 07:30 Thailand Nikkei Thailand PMI Mfg Feb -- -- 50.6 --
03/01/2017 10:30 Thailand CPI YoY Feb -- -- 1.55% --
03/01/2017 10:30 Thailand CPI NSA MoM Feb -- -- 0.16% --
03/01/2017 14:30 Thailand Business Sentiment Index Feb -- -- 50.1 --
03/01/2017 Thailand CPI Core YoY Feb -- -- 0.75% --
02/22/2017 08:30 China China January Property Prices 0 0 0 0
02/22/2017 17:00 Eurozone CPI MoM Jan -0.80% -- 0.50% 0.50%
02/22/2017 17:00 Eurozone CPI YoY Jan F 1.80% -- 1.80% 1.10%
02/22/2017 17:00 Eurozone CPI Core YoY Jan F 0.90% -- 0.90% --
02/22/2017 19:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Feb-17 -- -- -3.70% --
02/22/2017 21:00 China Conference Board C hina January Leading Economic Index 0 0 0 0
02/22/2017 22:00 United States Revisions: Existing Home Sales 0 0 0 0
02/22/2017 22:00 United States Existing Home Sales Jan 5.55m -- 5.49m --
02/22/2017 22:00 United States Existing Home Sales MoM Jan 1.10% -- -2.80% --
02/23/2017 02:00 United States FOMC Meeting Minutes 1-Feb-17 -- -- -- --
02/23/2017 06:50 Japan PPI Services YoY Jan 0.50% -- 0.40% --
02/23/2017 06:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 17-Feb-17 -- -- -297.4b --
02/23/2017 06:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 17-Feb-17 -- -- -96.7b --
02/23/2017 06:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 17-Feb-17 -- -- -99.2b --
02/23/2017 06:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 17-Feb-17 -- -- 175.6b --
02/23/2017 08:00 China Swift Global Payments CNY Jan -- -- 0.0168 --
02/23/2017 12:00 Japan Leading Index CI Dec F -- -- 105.2 --
02/23/2017 12:00 Japan Coincident Index Dec F -- -- 115.2 --
02/23/2017 20:30 United States Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan 0 -- 0.14 --
02/23/2017 20:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 18-Feb-17 240k -- 239k --
02/23/2017 20:30 United States Continuing Claims 11-Feb-17 2068k -- 2076k --
02/23/2017 21:00 United States House Price Purchase Index QoQ 4Q -- -- 1.50% --
02/23/2017 21:00 United States FHFA House Price Index MoM Dec 0.50% -- 0.50% --
02/23/2017 21:45 United States Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 19-Feb-17 -- -- 48.1 --
02/23/2017 23:00 United States Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Feb 9 -- 9 --
02/23/2017 Japan Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for February 0 0 0 0
02/24/2017 22:00 United States New Home Sales Jan 572k -- 536k --
02/24/2017 22:00 United States New Home Sales MoM Jan 6.70% -- -10.40% --
02/24/2017 22:00 United States U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F 96 -- 95.7 --
02/24/2017 22:00 United States U. of Mich. Current Conditions Feb F -- -- 111.2 --
Source : Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior Revised
02/24/2017 22:00 United St ates U. of Mich. Expectat ions Feb F -- -- 85.7 --
02/24/2017 22:00 United St ates U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Feb F -- -- 2.80% --
02/24/2017 22:00 United St ates U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Feb F -- -- 2.50% --
02/27/2017 16:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply YoY Jan -- -- 5.00% --
02/27/2017 17:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb -- -- 107.9 --
02/27/2017 17:00 Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Feb -- -- 0.77 --
02/27/2017 17:00 Eurozone Indust rial Confidence Feb -- -- 0.8 --
02/27/2017 17:00 Eurozone Services Confidence Feb -- -- 12.9 --
02/27/2017 17:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F -- -- -6.2 --
02/27/2017 20:30 United St ates Durable Goods Orders Jan P 2.00% -- -0.50% --
02/27/2017 20:30 United St ates Durables Ex Transportat ion Jan P 0.40% -- 0.50% --
02/27/2017 20:30 United St ates Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jan P 0.50% -- 0.70% --
02/27/2017 20:30 United St ates Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Jan P -- -- 1.00% --
02/27/2017 22:00 United St ates Pending Home Sales MoM Jan 0.90% -- 1.60% --
02/27/2017 22:00 United St ates Pending Home Sales NSA Y oY Jan -- -- -2.00% --
02/27/2017 22:30 United St ates Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb 19 -- 22.1 --
02/28/2017 06:50 Japan Indust rial Product ion MoM Jan P -- -- 0.70% --
02/28/2017 06:50 Japan Indust rial Product ion YoY Jan P -- -- 3.20% --
02/28/2017 06:50 Japan Ret ail Trade Y oY Jan -- -- 0.60% 0.70%
02/28/2017 06:50 Japan Ret ail Sales MoM Jan -- -- -1.70% -1.60%
02/28/2017 06:50 Japan Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Jan -- -- -1.30% --
02/28/2017 11:00 Japan Vehicle Production Y oY Jan -- -- 4.20% --
02/28/2017 12:00 Japan Housing Start s YoY Jan -- -- 3.90% --
02/28/2017 12:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts Jan -- -- 0.923m --
02/28/2017 12:00 Japan Construction Orders YoY Jan -- -- 7.10% --
02/28/2017 12:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Feb -- -- 48.3 --
02/28/2017 17:00 Eurozone CPI Est imate YoY Feb -- -- 1.80% --
02/28/2017 17:00 Eurozone CPI Core Y oY Feb A -- -- -- --
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2.10% -- 1.90% --
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates Personal Consumption 4Q S -- -- 2.50% --
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates GDP Price Index 4Q S 2.10% -- 2.10% --
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates Core PCE QoQ 4Q S -- -- 1.30% --
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates Advance Goods Trade Balance Jan -$65.9b -- -$65.0b -$64.4b
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates Wholesale Invent ories MoM Jan P 0.40% -- 1.00% --
02/28/2017 20:30 United St ates Ret ail Inventories MoM Jan -- -- 0 --
02/28/2017 21:00 United St ates S&P CoreLogic CS 20-Cit y MoM SA Dec -- -- 0.88% --
02/28/2017 21:00 United St ates S&P CoreLogic CS 20-Cit y Y oY NSA Dec -- -- 5.27% --
02/28/2017 21:00 United St ates S&P CoreLogic CS 20-Cit y NSA Index Dec -- -- 192.14 --
02/28/2017 21:00 United St ates S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI Y oY NSA Dec -- -- 5.64% --
02/28/2017 21:00 United St ates S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Dec -- -- 185.23 --
02/28/2017 21:45 United St ates Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb 52.8 -- 50.3 --
02/28/2017 22:00 United St ates Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Feb 110.9 -- 111.8 --
02/28/2017 22:00 United St ates Conf. Board Present Situation Feb -- -- 129.7 --
02/28/2017 22:00 United St ates Conf. Board Expectations Feb -- -- 99.8 --
02/28/2017 22:00 United St ates Richmond Fed Manufact . Index Feb -- -- 12 --
03/01/2017 06:50 Japan Capital Spending YoY 4Q -- -- -1.30% --
03/01/2017 06:50 Japan Capital Spending Ex Soft ware 4Q -- -- -1.40% --
03/01/2017 06:50 Japan Company Profits 4Q -- -- 11.50% --
03/01/2017 06:50 Japan Company Sales 4Q -- -- -1.50% --
03/01/2017 07:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Feb F -- -- 53.5 --
Source : Bloomberg
Company's Calendar
As of 21 February 2017
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
20-Feb-17 21-Feb-17 22-Feb-17 23-Feb-17 24-Feb-17 25-Feb-17
0
GPSC-XD@0.7 SPG-XD@0.45 DELTA-XD@3
New Listing: BCH42C1710A FUTUREPF-XD@0.351 GBX-XD@0.03
TCIF-XD@0.215
New Listing: BEM42C1710A MNIT-XD@0.0175
TTLPF-XD@0.4505
New Listing: BEM42P1710A TRIF-XD@0.225
MNIT2-XD@0.0556
New Listing: MTLS42C1710A CPTGF-XD@0.2154 M-STOR-XD@0.19
THIF-XD@0.1448 M-PAT-XD@0.178
JASIF-XD@0.23 IMPACT-XD@0.17
EGATIF-XD@0.12
GVREIT-XD@0.1887
SYNEX-XD@0.26
GLOBAL-XD(ST)@20(O):1(N)
GLOBAL-XD@0.165555555554
Remark
XD - Cash Dividend XR - Rights for Common
XD(ST) - Stock Dividend XW - Rights for Warrant
Source : SET as of previous trading day
Company's Calendar
As of 21 February 2017
Mon T ue Wed T hu Fri Sat
20-Feb-17 21-Feb-17 22-Feb-17 23-Feb-17 24-Feb-17 25-Feb-17
0 0
Delisted share: GL13C1702A Delisted share: IFEC-W1
Delisted share: CBG13C1702A
Delisted share: KCE13C1702A
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies); and
no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in
the report.
Investment Ratings
Outperform : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
Neutral : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
Underperform : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
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DWs Underlying Stocks: AAV, ADVANC, AMATA, AOT, BA, BANPU, BBL, BCH, BCP, BDMS, BEAUTY, BEM, BH, BLA, BLAND, BTS, CBG, CENTEL, CHG, CK, CPALL, CPF,
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and WORK