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Edward Furman
Question
Given a life status (u), what is its expected future lifetime? If the
insurance amount is one dollar: 1.) what is the r.v. representing
the payment upon death of (u)? 2.) what is the r.v. representing
the payment at the end of the year of death of (u)?
Recall that the price is the expected loss, for identity utility =
fairness principle (or equivalence principle).
as well as
X
Ax := E[v K (u)+1 ] = v k +1 k px qx+k .
k =0
as well as
n1
X
K (u)+1
A1 := E[v ]= v k +1 k px qx+k .
x:n
k =0
Proposition 0.1
We have that, for A 1 = 0 (why?), and for all x,
x:0
A1 = vqx + vpx A 1 .
x:n x+1:n1
n1
X n1
X
A1 = v k +1 k px qx+k = vqx + v k +1 k px qx+k
x:n
k =0 k =1
n1
X
= vqx + vpx v k k 1 px+1 qx+k
k =1
n2
X
= vqx + vpx v k +1 k px+1 qx+k +1
k =0
= vqx + vpx A 1 ,
x+1:n1
as required.
Proposition 0.2
Under the UDD assumption for each year of age, we have that
UDD i
Au = Au .
Proof.
We have that
UDD
t pu (u + t) = qu , 0 t 1, u = 0, 1, . . . .
Then
Z 1 Z
t
Au = = v t pu (u + t)dt + v t t pu (u + t)dt
0 1
Edward Furman Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280 8 / 45
Proof (cont.)
Z 1 Z
t
Au = v t pu (u + t)dt + v t+1 t+1 pu (u + 1 + t)dt
0 0
Z 1 Z
t
= v t pu (u + t)dt + v t+1 pu t pu+1 (u + 1 + t)dt
0 0
Z 1 Z
t
= v t pu (u + t)dt + vpu v t t pu+1 (u + 1 + t)dt
0 0
Z 1 Z 1
UDD
= t
v qu dt + vpu Au+1 = qu et dt + vpu Au+1
0 0
1 e 1v
= qu + vpu Au+1 = qu + vpu Au+1 .
Note that
1 1
v T (x:n ) = v T (x :n ) + v T (x:n ) .
Also,
1 1
Ax:n := E[v K (x :n )+1 + v K (x:n ) ], i.e.,
n1
X
Ax:n = v k +1 k px qx+k + v n n px = A 1 +A 1 .
x:n x:n
k =0
Note:
Of course, we have that,
lim A 1 = Ax .
n x:n
Proof.
We have that
Z Z
T (u) 2 2t
e
t
E[(v ) ]= e t pu (u + t)dt = t pu (u + t)dt,
Ru Ru
Proof.
Note that for the pure endowment insurance we have that the
second moment is
1
E[v 2T (x:n ) ] = v 2n n px .
v 2n n px (v n n px )2 ,
as required.
Var[v T (x:n ]
2
= 2A 1 A 1 + v 2n n px n qx 2A 1 v n n px .
x:n x:n x:n
Proof.
Note that
Var[v T (x:n ]
1 1
= Var[v T (x :n + v T (x:n ]
1 1 1 1
= Var[v T (x :n ] + Var[v T (x:n ] + 2Cov[v T (x :n , v T (x:n ) ]
1 1 1 1
= Var[v T (x :n ] + Var[v T (x:n ] 2E[v T (x :n ]]E[v T (x:n ],
Remark.
Of course, for m , the just mentioned insurance reduces to
the continuously increasing one.
Edward Furman Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280 19 / 45
Proposition 0.5
We have that Z
(IA)u = s| Au ds.
0
Proof.
Z Z t
(IA)u = ds v t t pu (u + t)dt
Z0 Z 0
= v t t pu (u + t)dtds
0 s
Z
= s| Au ds,
0
as required.
Note:
For the totally discrete counterpart, i.e., for (IA)u , we should
again have (why?)
X
(IA)u = j| Au = Au + 1| Au + 2| Au + ...
j=0
1
n1
X
K (u:n +1
(DA) 1 := E[(n K (u))v ]= (n k)v k +1 k pu qu+k .
u:n
k =0
Proposition 0.6
We have that
n1
X
(DA) 1 = A1 .
u:n u:nj
j=0
Then
n1
X
(DA) 1 = (n k)v k +1 k pu qu+k
u:n
k =0
X1
n1 nk
X
= (1)v k +1 k pu qu+k
k =0 j=0
n1 nj1
X X n1
X
= (1)v k +1 k pu qu+k = A1 ,
u:nj
j=0 k =0 j=0
as needed.
UDD i
E[b(K (u) + 1)v T (u) ] = E[b(K (u) + 1)v K (u)+1 ]
for any life status (u).
Proof (cont.)
Recall that T = K + J with J U(0, 1) because of the UDD.
We have also proven that under the UDD K and J are
independent. Namely
where
1 1
d (1 + i)1s
Z Z
1J(u) 1s
E[(1 + i) ]= (1 + i) ds = ,
0 0 ln(1 + i)
which is
E[(1 + i)1J(u) ] = i/.
UDD i
Ax = Ax ,
with b(K + 1) 1. And also
UDD i
(IA)x = (IA)x ,
with b(K + 1) = K + 1.
Question:
What about (IA)x ?
Proof.
The r.v. corresponding to the price above is
P[1 J j] = P[J 1 j] = j.
E[Z ]
UDD
= E[(K + 1)v K +1 (1 + i)1J ] E[v K +1 ]E[(1 J)(1 + i)1J ]
i
= (IA)x Ax E[(1 J)(1 + i)1J ]
i
= (IA)x Ax E[(J)(1 + i)J ]
Z 1
i d (1 + i)j
= (IA)x Ax j
0 ln(1 + i)
Z 1 !
i Ax
= (IA)x jd (1 + i)j
ln(1 + i) 0
Z 1 !
i Ax j 1 j
= (IA)x j(1 + i) |0 (1 + i) dj
ln(1 + i) 0
i Ax i
= (IA)x (1 + i) .
ln(1 + i) ln(1 + i)
Edward Furman Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280 29 / 45
An insurance can be payable m-thly.
(m) UDD i
Ax = Ax ,
i (m)
Proof.
We have that
m1
(m)
X X
K +(J+1)/m
E[v ] = v k +(j+1)/m k px j/m|1/m qx+k = Ax .
k =0 j=0
Moreover
Edward Furman Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280 32 / 45
Proof.
(m) UDD
X 1 1v
Ax = v k +1 k px qx+k (1 + i)
m (1 + i)1/m 1
k =0
X (1 v)(1 + i)
= v k +1 k px qx+k
i (m)
k =0
X i i
= v k +1 k px qx+k = Ax ,
i (m) i (m)
k =0
Proof.
Because of the definition of say T (x : y) and T (x : y), we have
that
v T (x:y ) + v T (x:y ) = v T (x) + v T (y ) .
Taking expectations throughout then completes the proof.
Example 0.14
An insurance that pays one dollar upon the death of the first of
(x) and (y) is
Z
T (x:y )
Ax:y := E[v ]= v t t px:y ((x : y) + t)dt.
0
Edward Furman Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280 36 / 45
Example 0.15
An insurance that pays one dollar upon the death of the last
one of (x) and (y) is
Z
Ax:y := E[v T (x:y ) ] = v t t px:y ((x : y) + t)dt.
0
Example 0.16
An insurance that pays one dollar upon the death of (x) if
1
he/she dies first is A 1 . Of course it is an expectation of v T (x :y ) .
x:y
The latter is v T (x) if T (x) < T (y) and v = 0 if T (x) T (y).
Thus
1
Z Z
A 1 := E[v T (x :y ) ] = vt fT (x),T (y ) (t, s)dsdt
x:y 0 t
i.e., if (x) dies at any time t when (y) is alive, then v t dollars are
payed. Check at home that if = 0, then A 1 = q 1 .
x :y x:y
Proposition 0.11
Under independence of the future lifetimes of (x) and (y), we
have that
ind
A 2 = Ay A 1 .
x:y x:y
Proof.
By definition
Z Z t
t
A 2 = v fT (x)| T (y ) (s| t)ds fT (y ) (t)dt.
x:y 0 0
as required.
Remark.
The result holds for dependent future lifetimes too. Prove at
home by looking at the corresponding r.v.s.
Proposition 0.12
Under independence of the future lifetimes of (x) and (y), we
have that Z
ind
A 2 = s Ay s px (x + s)ds.
x:y 0
Edward Furman Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280 40 / 45
Proof.
From the previous proposition, changing the order of integration
and by substitution u = t s,
Z
A 2= v t t qx t py (y + t)dt
x:y 0
Z Z t
ind
= vt s px (x + s)ds t py (y + t)dt
0
Z Z 0
= v t s px (x + s) t py (y + t)dtds
0 s
Z Z
= v u+s s px (x + s) u+s py (y + u + s)duds
Z0 0 Z
s
= v s py s px (x + s) v u u py +s (y + u + s)duds
Z0 0
= v s s py s px (x + s)Ay +s ds.
0
Ay = Ay A 1
s
y :s
Z
= v u+s u+s py (y + u + s)du
0
Z
= v s s py v u u py +s (y + u + s)du
0
= v s s py Ay +s .
Remark.
We will often use the notation s Ex := v s s px . This is refereed to
as the stochastic discount factor.
Example 0.19
Let b(x + t)(1) = t and b(x + t)(2) = 0 for all t > 0. Assume
UDD for each year of death. Then
Z Z
X k +1
(1)
A= tv t
t px (x + t)dt = tv t t px (1) (x + t)dt
0 k =0 k
Z 1
X
= (k + s)v k +s k +s px (1) (x + k + s)ds
k =0 0