Economics 306

Midterm #1, Fall 2013

100 Points
100 Minutes

Instructions: Answer the following questions as clearly as you can. Circle your answers. Partial credit is
available, but we cannot give partial credit unless you show your work. You do not need to write out every
detail, but give a clear indication of how you are making your calculations. For problems with many
parts where you use information from earlier in the problem to answer the question, you can receive full
credit if you do the correct work but use the wrong numbers. The clearer you are in your explanation the
more straightforward this part of the grading will be.

You may use any type of hand-held calculator. All other electronic devices are prohibited.

DO NOT OPEN UNTIL I START THE TEST

1) (12 points total (3 points each part)) Compare the following two OLS regressions:

Yi 0 1 X i i
i.
1
Y 0 1 2 X i i
ii. 6 i

(The + sign distinguishes the fact that the values youd calculate for equation ii may differ from i.) That
is, the values of the Y variable have been multiplied by 1/6 and the value of the X variables have been
multiplied by 2. How do the values of the following terms derived from equation ii differ from the
equivalent terms for equation 1?
(You need to give us some indication of how you arrive at your answers. I recommend answering these
in the order given.)
If a person correctly identifies the direction, but was unable to quantify the amount of change,
that is worth 1.5 points each. A decent but failed attempt to mathematically determine the change
is worth 2 points, assuming they are going in the right direction. If they do the math right but
dont say at the end slope decreases etc that should not be penalized.

a) 1

S2
1 XY2
( X i X )(Yi Y )
SX ( X i X )2
1 1 1
S 2 (2 X 2 X )( 6 Y 6 Y ) 3 ( X X )(Y Y ) 1
i i i i
1 XY

(2 X 2 X ) 4 ( X X )
2 2 2 1
S X i i 12
 Slope decreases by a factor of 12.
b)
0

1 1 1 1 1
0 Y 21 X ( Y 2 1 X ) (Y 1 X ) 0
6 6 12 6 6

Intercept decreases by factor of 6.

c) SSR+

1 1 1 1
SSR ( Yi Y )2 (Yi Y ) 2 SSR
6 6 36 36

SSR decreases by a factor of 36

d) R2+
Unchanged. The ability of X to explain Y is no different if each is multiplied by a
constant number. Also, SST and SSE decrease by a factor of 36 (which I have not
written out here), so the ratio is no different.

2) (8 points) In the OLS regression of Y on X where the assumptions of the CLRM are met,
what is the expected value of 0 1 X i i ? (You may use the unbiasedness results from
class, and not rederive them. Show your reasoning and be precise.)

E[ 0 1 X i i ] E[ 0 ] E[ 1 X i ] E[i ]
Xi is assumed to be nonrandom in CLRM, and we proved that 0 and 1 are
unbiased in class. So we can rewrite as:

E[ 0 1 X i i ] 0 1 X i E[i ] 0 1 X i -- Getting this far is worth 6 points, since it

turns out to be true that E[i ] 0 . [Partial credit of 3 points for any thoughtful
attempt at answering the question.]

However, we have never actually established in class that E[i ] 0 . It may seem
obvious, but we should be able to rigorously justify the obvious, which is what
I want here for the last two points. It isnt hard, but to get there a student
needs to go do roughly the following. (A student doesnt have to have every
single step, but it needs to be clear they have this idea.)
E[i ] E[Yi Yi ] E[( 0 1 X i i ) ( 0 1 X i )] 0 1 X i E[ i ] E[ 0 ] X i E[ 1 ]
E[i ] 0 1 X i E[ i ] 0 1 X i E[ i ] 0 since the betahats are unbiased
and since our
CLRM assumption is that the expected value of the POPULATION errors is
zero.

Possible slightly streamlined alternative that I only thought of now. On HW 2

we showed that E[Yi ] is an unbiased estimator of Yi. Therefore
E[i ] E[Yi Yi ] Yi E[Yi ] Yi Yi 0 , where I have skipped a couple steps.

Cutoff Points for the tdistribution

df \ p 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.95 0.975 0.99 0.995
1 0.325 0.727 1.367 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657
2 0.289 0.617 1.061 1.886 2.92 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 0.277 0.584 0.978 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 0.271 0.569 0.941 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604
5 0.267 0.559 0.92 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032
6 0.265 0.553 0.906 1.44 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707
7 0.263 0.549 0.896 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499
8 0.262 0.546 0.889 1.397 1.86 2.306 2.896 3.355
9 0.261 0.543 0.883 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.25
10 0.26 0.542 0.879 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169
11 0.26 0.54 0.876 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106
12 0.259 0.539 0.873 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055
13 0.259 0.538 0.87 1.35 1.771 2.16 2.65 3.012
14 0.258 0.537 0.868 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977
15 0.258 0.536 0.866 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947
16 0.258 0.535 0.865 1.337 1.746 2.12 2.583 2.921
17 0.257 0.534 0.863 1.333 1.74 2.11 2.567 2.898
18 0.257 0.534 0.862 1.33 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878
19 0.257 0.533 0.861 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861
21 0.257 0.532 0.859 1.323 1.721 2.08 2.518 2.831
22 0.256 0.532 0.858 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819
23 0.256 0.532 0.858 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.5 2.807
24 0.256 0.531 0.857 1.316 1.708 2.06 2.485 2.787
25 0.256 0.531 0.856 1.316 1.708 2.06 2.485 2.787
26 0.256 0.531 0.856 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779
27 0.256 0.531 0.855 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771
28 0.256 0.53 0.855 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763
29 0.256 0.53 0.854 1.31 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.75
30 0.256 0.53 0.854 1.31 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.75
40 0.255 0.529 0.851 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704
60 0.254 0.527 0.848 1.296 1.671 2 2.39 2.66
120 0.254 0.526 0.845 1.289 1.658 1.98 2.358 2.617
infinit
y 0.253 0.524 0.842 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.326 2.576