HSL PCG Currency Insight-Weekly

18 February, 2017
 WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET WRAP UP
Truncated Week with Month Dollar Demand Push Rupee
Currency Lower

Rupee closed at 67.02 down 0.2% from its previous close of 66.88. The
Currency Prev. % local currency consolidate in the range of 66.88 to 67.15 through out the
Last Chg.
(Spot) Close Chg.
week. During the week, we have seen foreign bank were dollar buyer
DXY Index 100.95 100.80 0.1500 0.1% while the domestic banks and importers seller.
EURUSD 1.0616 1.0643 -0.0027 -0.3% Sovereign bonds yield rises, a third week of gains, as RBI Governor Urjit
GBPUSD 1.2412 1.2491 -0.0079 -0.6%
Patel reiterates concern about high core inflation, further denting hopes
of a rate cut. The comments suggest that RBI will maintain status quo on
USDJPY 112.84 113.22 -0.3800 -0.3%
rates. The 10 year bond yield closed at 6.852 from previous weeks
USDINR 67.0200 66.8837 0.1363 0.2% 6.805. It has risen 42bps since close on Feb. 7, the day before the RBI
EURINR 71.3771 71.2050 0.1721 0.2% panel changed its policy stance to neutral from accommodative and held
rates unexpectedly.
GBPINR 83.1918 83.5210 -0.3292 -0.4%
Coming week will be holiday shortened with market remains open for
JPYINR 59.40 58.95 0.4500 0.8% only three trading session. The dollar demand from foreign as well as
DGCX USDINR 67.0961 66.9165 0.1796 0.3% domestic importer will be observed.
Technically speaking USDINR is highly oversold and expected to witness
short covering rally in coming weeks.
RBI Reference Rate
Safe Heaven Demand Drives Dollar and Yen Higher
Prev. %
Currency Last Chg.
Close Chg.
The dollar marked second weekly gain after a roller-coaster week that
USDINR 67.0467 66.9367 0.1100 0.2% saw both fresh February highs and fast losses, with ranges remaining
EURINR 71.5053 71.3344 0.1709 0.2% largely intact amid the search for new macro drivers. Janet Yellen, in its
testimony, said more interest-rate increases will be appropriate if the
GBPINR 83.7614 83.7713 -0.0099 0.0%
economy stays on course. The Fed chair gave no indication of the timing
JPYINR 59.1500 58.8900 0.2600 0.4% of the next hike. Investors see about a 30% chance of an increase at the
next meeting of the FOMC in March.
The yen rose against major currencies in the week gone as concerns
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield about the upcoming French elections and the lack of movement in fiscal
changes in the United States kindled safe-haven demand for the
Prev. %
Instrument Last
Close
Chg.
Chg.
Japanese currency. The yen gains 0.3% to close at 112.84 against
American dollar.
697GS2026 6.8520 6.8050 0.0470 0.7%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 The short term move in dollar will be directed by US Fed minutes of its February meeting. Markets will probably focus on any
signals regarding the timing of the next rate hike. The dollar will also be affected by developments emanating from the Trump
Administration's economic policies, but even more so by continued speculation over the Fed's rate hike trajectory.

WEEKAHEAD

On Monday, we have a quiet day, with no major events or indicators on the economic agenda. Markets will remain closed in
the US in celebration of Presidents' Day and Family Day respectively.

On Tuesday, Indias currency market remains closed on Bombay Municipality election (Bank Holiday). We get the preliminary
manufacturing and services PMIs for February from several European nations and the Eurozone as a whole. The PMI report
for January was very upbeat on all fronts, indicating strong employment growth, intensifying inflationary pressures, and a
relatively robust pace of economic growth. However, ECB press conference, Draghi made it clear that the Bank intends to
keep its current policy unchanged until there is a convincing upward trend in the core CPI rate, which has been range-bound
for two years now.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testifies before the U.K. Parliaments Treasury Committee.

On Wednesday, the main event will be in the US, where the Fed will release the minutes from its February policy meeting,
which may signal members views on President Donald Trumps policies and their economic impact. From UK, the 2nd estimate
of Q4 GDP is due out. The 1st estimate showed that economic growth held steady at +0.6% on a quarterly basis, beating the
consensus for a slight slowdown. This was another confirmation that the UK economy has not been hit by Brexit uncertainties,
at least not yet.

On Thursday, we have no major events or indicators due to be released.

On Friday, Indian market remains close on account of Mahashivratri.

WEEKLY PRICE - VOLUME - OI (PVO)

OPEN
WKLY WKLY OI VOLUME WKLY VOL.
CURRENCY PAIR HIGH LOW CLOSE INTERES
% CHG. % CHG. (VOL.) % CHG.
T (OI)
NSE INRUSD Future Feb17 67.1900 66.9350 67.0950 0.18% 1188591 -28.90% 1260894 9.12%
NSE EURINR Future Feb17 71.7725 70.7050 71.4775 0.13% 54277 -23.16% 58053 45.64%
NSE GBPINR Future Feb17 84.1750 83.1825 83.3100 -0.51% 44892 -2.15% 78908 39.65%
NSE JPYINR Future Feb17 59.5300 58.5150 59.4925 0.71% 20362 -15.29% 30203 -3.61%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT USDINR
USDINR Mar. Future CMP 67.36
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 67.57
Resistance 1 67.46
Pivot 67.34
Support 1 67.23
Support 2 67.10

USDINR Mar. Fut. : Cut Shorts,

and Go long for the target of
67.70, SL 67.15

Pair has been forming lower tops

and lower bottoms on the daily
chart.
Existing trend of the pair is
bearish
Pair is trading below 200 DMA
support, placed at 67.71.
RSI on the daily chart has
reached in extremely oversold.
Since Jan 2017, pair has seen a
fall from 68.39 to 66.76.
Considering the evidences we
expect short covering in the pair
due to oversold condition on the
daily charts.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT EURINR
EURINR Mar. Future CMP 71.82
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 72.71
Resistance 1 72.27
Pivot 71.66
Support 1 71.21
Support 2 70.60

EURINR Mar. Fut. : Sell EURINR

For Target 70.75, SL 72.11

In last 3 sessions pair saw sharp

pullback from 70.55 to 72.11.
This move was the opposite to its
primary down trend.
Recent up move may end up as
dead cat bounce and may not
sustain at higher levels.
EURINR Spot index has formed
bearish triple top formation at
73.35 on the daily charts.
Short term moving averages are
trading below long term moving
averages.
We advise going short in EURINR
March Fut. with SL of 72.11, for
the target of 71.10.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT GBPINR
GBPINR Mar. Future CMP 83.68
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 84.91
Resistance 1 84.29
Pivot 83.92
Support 1 83.30
Support 2 82.93

GBPINR : Sell Mar Fut at Cmp,

Target 82.40, SL 84.55

Short term moving averages are

trading below long term moving
averages.
Pair has been forming lower tops
and lower bottoms on the daily
chart.
Existing trend of the pair is bearish
For last 10 sessions, pair was
consolidating in the tight range of
84 to 83.
Oscillators like RSI and MACD are
showing weakens in the pair
We advise shorting the pair at
CMP, for the target of 82.40,
keeping SL at 84.55 in March Fut.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT JPYINR
JPYINR Mar. Future CMP : 59.74

Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 60.43 DAILY CHART

Resistance 1 60.08
Pivot 59.44
Support 1 59.10
Support 2 58.46

JPYINR March Fut. : Maintain

Shorts with SL of 60.68, Target
58.50
In last 3 sessions pair saw sharp
pullback from 58.80 to 59.78.
This move was the opposite to
its primary down trend.
Recent up move may end up as
dead cat bounce and may not
sustain at higher levels.
Primary trend of the pair has
been bearish and after short
term pullback, pair is all set to
resume its down trend.
Short term moving averages are
trading below long term moving
averages.
We advise remaining short in
JPYINR March Fut. for the
downside target of 58.50,
keeping SL at 60.68.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

DOLLAR INDEX EURUSD
EURUSD: Daily Chart
DXY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD USDJPY

USDJPY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD: Daily Chart

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FEB. MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

Data Interpretation:
In the week gone, there were unwinding of position in 67 strike ahead of near month expiry. The above distribution
indicating near month expiry likely to adjust in the range of 67.10 to 67.50.
The put call ratio at the end of the week were at 0.91 from previous weeks 0.95 for the near month future, the reduction
in position indicating short covering.
Looking at the above distribution, the pair could face resistance around 67.60 while downside it may take support around
66.80

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FUTURE OPEN INTEREST CHANGE

Data Interpretation:

USDINR manages to buck the four weeks falling trend in the week gone with gain of 0.18% settling at 67.10. As there are
only three working days left to February contract, traders shifted there position to next month. The aggregate open
interest stood at 24 lakh contracts while near month OI fell from 17 lakh to 12 lakh contracts.
The rise in price volume and fall in open interest suggesting short covering ahead of expiry.
We remain cautious with expectation of short covering would continue in coming days. The long trader can hold stop
around 66.85 with higher side expected around 67.60.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

INDIA FOREX RESERVE
Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions)
Wkly Chg. 10-Feb 3-Feb 27-Jan 20-Jan 13-Jan 6-Jan
Total Reserves -0.36 362.79 363.15 361.56 360.78 359.84 359.15
Foreign Currency Assets -0.35 339.78 340.13 339.21 338.43 337.5 336.82
Gold 0.00 19.25 19.25 18.58 18.58 18.58 18.58
Special Drawing Rights 0.00 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
Position in IMF -0.01 2.31 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.31 2.31

FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR

Positive Net Foreign Equity Invt.

Negative Net Foreign Equity Invt.
Positive Net Foreign Debt Invt.
Negative Net Foreign Debt Invt.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
CURRENCY PAIR CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
ICE Dollar Index 100.95 0.51 0.15 0.62 0.06 6.58 4.30
Euro Spot 1.0616 (0.54) (0.25) (0.91) (0.09) (5.96) (4.60)
British Pound Spot 1.2412 (0.62) (0.63) (0.02) (0.04) (4.83) (13.17)
Japanese Yen Spot 112.84 0.35 0.34 (0.20) (2.41) (11.13) 1.12
Indian Rupee Spot 67.02 0.08 (0.20) 1.40 1.20 (0.38) 2.16
Brazilian Real Spot 3.0978 (0.26) 0.56 3.67 10.44 3.51 28.81
Australian Dollar Spot 0.7664 (0.39) (0.13) 1.28 3.48 0.12 6.67
South Korean Won Spot 1146.31 (0.41) 0.41 2.45 2.59 (3.31) 7.04
S. African Rand Spot 13.0382 (0.04) 2.29 3.29 10.63 2.63 18.69
Canadian Dollar Spot 1.3096 (0.19) (0.10) (0.40) 3.25 (1.92) 4.40
Swiss Franc Spot 1.0026 (0.55) (0.02) (0.11) 0.45 (4.04) (1.01)

MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
COMMODITY CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
Gold 1234.6 (0.36) 0.08 1.44 1.49 (8.46) 2.16
Silver 17.9969 (0.56) 0.27 4.65 7.92 (8.63) 17.77
Crude Oil 53.4 0.07 (0.85) 0.26 12.54 5.64 28.99

MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
INDEX CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
Nifty 50 Index 8821.7 0.50 0.32 5.66 9.26 1.79 22.34
S&p Bse Sensex Index 28468.8 0.59 0.47 5.31 8.87 1.40 20.07
Dow Jones Indus. Avg 20624.1 0.02 1.75 4.02 9.31 11.17 25.82
S&p 500 Index 2351.2 0.17 1.51 3.52 7.76 7.66 22.60
Nasdaq Composite Index 5838.6 0.41 1.82 5.10 9.72 11.46 29.62
Ftse 100 Index 7300.0 0.30 0.57 1.41 7.74 6.43 22.68
Cac 40 Index 4867.6 (0.65) 0.81 0.35 8.06 10.61 15.26
Dax Index 11757.0 (0.00) 0.77 1.09 10.24 11.50 25.23
Nikkei 225 19234.6 (0.58) (0.74) 0.51 7.05 16.25 20.46
Hang Seng Index 24033.7 (0.31) 1.95 5.02 7.56 4.78 24.62
Shanghai Se Composite 3202.1 (0.85) 0.17 2.53 0.29 3.02 11.96

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
02/20/2017 20:30 EC Consumer Confidence Feb A -4.9 -4.9
02/21/2017 06:00 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Feb P -- 52.7
02/21/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55 55.2
02/21/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Feb P 53.7 53.7
02/21/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Feb P 54.3 54.4
02/21/2017 15:00 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Jan -- 36.3b
02/21/2017 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55.3 55
02/21/2017 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Feb P 55.8 55.6
02/21/2017 20:15 US Markit US Composite PMI Feb P -- 55.8
02/22/2017 15:00 UK GDP YoY 4Q P 2.20% 2.20%
02/22/2017 15:00 UK Private Consumption QoQ 4Q P 0.60% 0.70%
02/22/2017 15:00 UK Exports QoQ 4Q P 2.00% -2.60%
02/22/2017 15:00 UK Imports QoQ 4Q P 0.50% 1.40%
02/22/2017 15:30 EC CPI YoY Jan F 1.80% 1.80%
02/22/2017 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Jan F 0.90% 0.90%
02/22/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Feb -- -3.70%
02/22/2017 20:30 US Existing Home Sales Jan 5.54m 5.49m
02/23/2017 00:30 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 1-Feb -- --
02/23/2017 10:30 JN Coincident Index Dec F -- 115.2
02/23/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 18-Feb 240k 239k
02/23/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 11-Feb 2065k 2076k
02/23/2017 21:30 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Feb 9 9
02/24/2017 20:30 US New Home Sales Jan 571k 536k
02/24/2017 20:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F 96 95.7
02/24 02/28 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Jan -- 5.60%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses

An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.

For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an automatic
exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the world markets
are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.

Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering a
trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have created a
forex hedge.

With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the downside
risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside
risk.

The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to
plan and execute the strategy.

The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an importer
will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. The
cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same time creating a loss for
the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Hedging Works For An Importer

Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the delivery
date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth, say, Rs
66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016, the
value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.

In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for the
importer would work:

Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th
March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar

Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs 66,50,000).
However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due to profits in
currency hedge.

How An Exporter Can Use Hedging

A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to make
the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the exchange rate
for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows

In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that initially
the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016.

Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but by
creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Research Analyst(Equity and Currency): Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Research Analyst(Currency): Dilip Parmar (dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]