HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

20 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Dollar Dearer Against Rupee
Dollar dearer against rupee for the second session to hit a one-week
GBPINR JAN FUT high. The local currency closed at 68.13 a dollar, down 0.08% from
previous close of 68.08. The rupee opened at 68.20 a dollar and
BUY ARND 83.90 SL 83.60 TGT 84.30 touched a low of 68.27.
The one month forward USDINR NDF last quoted at 68.33 from
MAJOR CURRENCY yesterdays 68.38 indicating flat to negative start at domestic
bourse.
Prev. Technically, spot USDINR has been in consolidation mode with broad
Close Chg. % Chg. range of 68.40 to 67.70.
Close
USDINR 68.129 68.075 0.054 0.08%
Trump Era Officially Begins Today
DXY INDX 101.010 101.150 -0.140 -0.14% The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major
EURUSD 1.068 1.066 0.001 0.12% currencies, last stood at 101.01. The index rose to 101.73 yesterday
GBPUSD 1.236 1.234 0.002 0.15% on upbeat U.S. job and housing data, with homebuilding having
USDJPY 114.750 114.860 -0.110 -0.10% rebounded sharply in December as a firming economy boosted
DG USDINR 68.204 68.194 0.010 0.01% demand for rental housing. The number of Americans filing for
unemployment dropped unexpectedly fell to near the 43-year low
GLOBAL INDICES touched in mid-November. Though, the dollar fell after Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that gradual monetary adjustments
were prudent, taking a less hawkish tone than anticipated. Fed Chair
Prev. Janet Yellen said that while the U.S. economy is in good shape,
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close uncertainty is prevalent. Policy could end up being different than
SGX NIFTY 8422.0 8441.5 -20 -0.23% anything she envisions today, she added.
NIFTY 8435.1 8417.0 18 0.22% The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.2% to 2.4646, after spiking to
SENSEX 27308.6 27257.6 51 0.19% as high as 2.496 yesterday.
HANG-SENG 22913.5 23050.0 -136 -0.59% Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States
today. Global market would remain volatile before Trumps inaugural
NIKKEI 19091.8 19072.3 20 0.10%
speech.
SHANGHAI 3114.6 3101.3 13 0.43%
S&P INDEX 2263.7 2271.9 -8 -0.36% Chinas Q4 GDP beat the estimates
DOW JONES 19732.4 19804.7 -72 -0.37% China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.8% on-year in the
NASDAQ 5540.1 5555.7 -16 -0.28% fourth quarter, slightly beating expectations and signalling growth
FTSE was stabilizing. The world's second-largest economy had been
7208.4 7247.6 -39 -0.54%
forecast to grow 6.7% in the quarter from Q3 of 6.7%. For the full
CAC 4841.1 4853.4 -12 -0.25%
year, China's economy grew 6.7% as per the govt. estimates.
DAX 11596.9 11599.4 -3 -0.02% However, Industrial output for December rose 6.0% on-year, a tad
below forecast for 6.1%.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR pegged near short term moving average of 20 days indicating consolidation.
Momentum oscillators RSI given negative divergence suggesting weakness in the pair.
The pair could head lower towards 67.70, the previous bottom, and face resistance at 68.39.
The short term bias turn neutral to bearish with downside support at 67.715 and 67.3250 until it surpass 68.3875.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.19 68.23 67.97 68.07 68.13 68.29 68.39 68.44 Short Covering
EURINR JAN17 72.70 72.69 72.37 72.47 72.58 72.80 72.90 73.02 Long Unwinding
GBPINR JAN17 84.05 83.99 83.37 83.56 83.80 84.24 84.43 84.67 Long Buildup
JPYINR JAN17 59.49 59.55 59.13 59.29 59.39 59.65 59.81 59.91 Long Unwinding

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.39 67.95 68.39 67.41 68.86 66.07 68.08 68.08 67.98 67.38 67.17
EURINR 72.69 71.67 72.76 70.42 77.49 70.42 72.57 71.74 72.07 73.20 74.20
GBPINR 83.69 82.51 85.88 81.78 100.49 80.89 83.16 83.37 84.37 84.51 88.58
JPYINR 59.72 57.93 60.24 57.25 68.11 55.73 59.75 58.66 59.48 62.14 62.90

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.20 68.27 68.12 68.13 0.05 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.28 68.33 68.17 68.19 0.05 1607928 -121148 977670 258855
SPOT EURINR 72.57 72.71 72.50 72.62 -0.13 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 72.79 72.79 72.57 72.70 -0.11 36685 -1322 28606 -995
SPOT GBPINR 83.79 84.09 83.64 83.96 0.17 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 83.90 84.19 83.75 84.05 0.14 32040 1296 64283 -18188
SPOT JPYINR 59.54 59.60 59.36 59.41 -0.62 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 59.71 59.71 59.45 59.49 -0.61 17354 -6854 37205 10416

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/19/2017 14:30 EC Current Account NSA Nov -- 36.1b 32.8b

01/19/2017 18:15 EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate 19-Jan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
01/19/2017 18:15 EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility 19-Jan 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
01/19/2017 18:15 EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate 19-Jan -0.40% -0.40% -0.40%
01/19/2017 18:15 EC ECB Asset Purchase Target Jan EU80b EU80b EU80b
01/19/2017 19:00 US Housing Starts Dec 1195k 1226k 1090k
01/19/2017 19:00 US Building Permits Dec 1220k 1210k 1212k
01/19/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 14-Jan -- 234k 247k
01/19/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 7-Jan -- 2046k 2087k
01/20/2017 07:30 CH GDP YoY 4Q 6.70% 6.70% 6.70%
01/20/2017 07:30 CH Industrial Production YoY Dec 6.10% 6.00% 6.20%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]