HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

05 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Support Seen at 68.37
A weak dollar sentiment across the board alongside unwinding of
USDINR JAN. FUT. : long positions by speculative traders ahead of key US macro data
SELL AT 68.25 SL 68.40 TGT 68.01 release largely supported the recovery momentum for the rupee.
The local currency gain 0.42% or 29 paise to close at 68.05 from
previous days 68.33.
MAJOR CURRENCY The 10-year bond yield closed at 6.382%-a level last seen on 6
December, compared to Tuesday's close of 6.445%. Bond yields
Prev. edged lower yesterday on continued optimism over the cut in the
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close governments borrowing program for the first two months of 2017.
USDINR 68.045 68.330 -0.285 -0.42% Strength in the Indian rupee also aided the sentiment on bonds
DXY INDX 102.250 102.700 -0.450 -0.44% prices.
EURUSD 1.052 1.049 0.003 0.30% The one month Forward USDINR NDF quoting at 68.14 from
GBPUSD 1.232 1.232 0.000 -0.02% yesterdays 67.27 suggesting 10-12 paise weaker opening at
USDJPY 116.440 117.250 -0.810 -0.69% domestic bourses.
DG USDINR 68.064 68.064 0.000 0.00% Technically, on daily chart USDINR sustains above short term
moving averages indicating short term up move. However,
GLOBAL INDICES momentum oscillators showing negative divergence indicating short
term trend reversal. The pair would find support around 67.86 and
Prev. 67.71 while get resist around 68.37.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close Dollar Retreats From 14 Year High After FOMC Minutes
SGX NIFTY 8237.0 8198.0 39 0.48% The dollar retreats from a 14-year high against a basket of
NIFTY 8190.5 8192.3 -2 -0.02% currencies, briefly hitting a session low, while U.S. Treasury debt
SENSEX 26633.1 26643.2 -10 -0.04% yields were flat to slightly lower in choppy trading after the release
HANG-SENG 22367.5 22134.5 233 1.05% of the minutes. The minutes showed how broadly views within the
Fed are shifting in response to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's
NIKKEI 19544.7 19594.2 -49 -0.25%
promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation.
SHANGHAI 3159.0 3158.8 0 0.01%
The dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of
S&P INDEX 2270.8 2257.8 13 0.57%
six major rivals - was down 0.44% to 102.25, having hit a peak of
DOW JONES 19942.2 19881.8 60 0.30% 103.82 on Tuesday.
NASDAQ 5477.0 5429.1 48 0.88% U.S. Dollar may begin correction on break of near-term support, as
FTSE 7189.7 7177.9 12 0.17% various 21-DMA supports break early today, the dollar index finds
CAC 4899.4 4899.3 -- -- itself leaning on that same moving average. The buck is having
DAX 11584.3 11584.2 -- -- support around 101 while near top 103.85 remains resistance in
near term.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR HOURLY CHART

Technical Observations

Spot USDINR formed open high and closed at days low suggesting bears had taken charge through out the day. The pair closed at
68.04 with loss of 29 paise or 0.42%
Momentum oscillators on hourly and daily chart indicating negative divergence and exited from overbought zone indicating near
term weakness for the pair.
Shot term bias turned neutral to bearish till the pair surpasses level of 68.37 while find support near 67.85.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.21 68.28 67.90 68.05 68.13 68.36 68.51 68.58 Bearish
EURINR JAN17 71.31 71.32 70.95 71.08 71.19 71.44 71.56 71.68 Short Covering
GBPINR JAN17 83.70 83.78 83.34 83.51 83.61 83.87 84.04 84.14 Short Covering
JPYINR JAN17 58.15 58.12 57.69 57.82 57.98 58.28 58.41 58.58 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.25 67.72 68.86 67.33 68.86 66.07 68.13 67.87 67.69 67.25 67.10
EURINR 71.90 70.72 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 71.27 71.26 72.33 73.51 74.33
GBPINR 83.91 83.09 86.88 83.07 100.49 80.89 83.65 84.17 84.15 85.06 89.19
JPYINR 58.59 57.72 61.50 57.25 68.11 55.73 58.07 58.07 60.52 62.91 62.97

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.28 68.28 68.05 68.05 -0.29 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.43 68.43 68.20 68.21 -0.28 1638493 -67333 899100 -569576
SPOT EURINR 71.06 71.21 70.93 71.04 0.11 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 71.29 71.44 71.20 71.31 0.03 38745 848 34616 -10764
SPOT GBPINR 83.56 83.72 83.44 83.44 -0.45 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 83.90 83.95 83.68 83.70 -0.47 26749 2726 35189 -9272
SPOT JPYINR 57.88 57.99 57.71 57.90 0.16 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 58.07 58.25 57.95 58.15 0.15 33697 490 26469 3010

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/04/2017 10:30 IN Nikkei India PMI Services Dec -- 46.8 46.7

01/04/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Dec F 53.1 53.7 53.1
01/04/2017 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Dec 52.6 54.2 52.8
01/04/2017 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Dec A 0.80% 0.90% 0.80%
01/04/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Dec -- 0.10% 2.50%
01/05/2017 06:00 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Services Dec -- 52.3 51.8
01/05/2017 07:15 CH Caixin China PMI Services Dec -- 53.4 53.1

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

01/05/2017 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Dec 54.7 55.2
01/05/2017 15:30 EC PPI YoY Nov -0.10% -0.40%
01/05/2017 18:45 US ADP Employment Change Dec 175k 216k
01/05/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 31-Dec 260k 265k
01/05/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 24-Dec 2051k 2102k
01/05/2017 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Dec F 53.4 53.4
01/05/2017 20:30 US ISM Non-Mfg Composite Dec 56.7 57.2

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]