HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

30 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY
VIEW POINT
Prev. Rupee Rebound Ahead of 3Q GDP Data
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
USDINR 68.655 68.775 -0.120 -0.17% Rupee higher ahead of 3Q GDP data today which expected to show the
DXY INDX 101.020 101.28 -0.260 -0.26% economy expanded 7.5% y/y, according to from 7.1% prior. GDP
EURUSD 1.064 1.060 0.004 0.35% number will likely underscore impact of Prime Minister Modis move to
GBPUSD 1.247 1.247 0.000 0.02% ban high-value notes on economy which was announced Nov. 8 as most
economists and rating agencies cut full fiscal year growth forecasts from
USDJPY 112.380 112.58 -0.200 -0.18%
0.5% to 1%. The effect of demonetisation has been seen in interest rate
DG USDINR 68.776 68.866 -0.090 -0.13% as govt. cuts interest rate on some saving plans by 10 bps for 3Q.
Rupee gains 0.17% to 68.6550 per dollar, still near record low of
GLOBAL INDICES 68.8650 on Nov. 24. While countrys sovereign bonds recover from their
worst day in fifteen months on Monday. Yield on 6.97% govt. bond due
September 2026 drops 1bp to 6.32%.
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. All eyes on the GDP releases today and central bank policy on 6th
Close
December, as external uncertainties and rupee volatility suggest 1Q
SGX NIFTY 8181.0 8173.5 8 0.09% 2017 is a better timeline to ease rates, the central bank might prefer to
NIFTY 8142.2 8126.9 15 0.19% bring forward the rate cut to December to support growth and tap the
SENSEX 26394.0 26350.2 44 0.17% favourable inflation outlook.
HANG-SENG 22808.8 22737.1 72 0.32% Technically, USDINR Dec. Fut. is favouring bulls, near term resistance
pegged at 69.25 and support at 68.70
NIKKEI 18329.9 18307.0 23 0.12%
SHANGHAI 3255.2 3282.9 -28 -0.84% Dollar Ignore Strong US Economic Data
S&P INDEX 2204.7 2201.7 3 0.13% The dollar moved narrow range against the yen and euro early today, as
DOW JONES 19121.6 19097.9 24 0.12% traders remains cautious ahead of OPEC meeting later today which
could weigh on financial markets.
NASDAQ 5379.9 5368.8 11 0.21%
Overnight robust data of U.S. GDP data but failed to sustain the gains
FTSE 6772.0 6799.5 -27 -0.40% bond yield, a key driver of the dollar recently, pulled back from 16-
CAC 4551.5 4510.4 41 0.91% month highs. The report said GDP climbed by 3.2% in the third quarter
DAX 10620.5 10582.7 38 0.36% compared to the initially estimated 2.90% increase and consumer
confidence jumping to a 9-year high of 107.1.
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
U.S. currency has lost some steam recently with Treasury yields
showing signs of peaking for now amid buying by investors' month-end
Segment 29-Nov-16 28-Nov-16 portfolio rebalancing. The dollar index trading around 101 after
shedding 0.4% the previous day.
Equity -1366.85 -461.29 Apart from the OPEC meeting, the market will look to U.S. data for
Debt -3522.25 -487.64 catalysts later in the day, including the November ADP employment
report, November Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) and
October pending home sales.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR DEC. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR December future closed at 68.83 down by 0.10% with sharp fall in volume and open interest. The fall in price, volume
and open interest suggesting long liquidation at higher level.
The pair sustained above short term moving averages and continues forming higher highs and lows, indicating continuation of upward
move. Oscillators on daily and weekly time scale showing sign of strengthening trend.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 69.25 and support 68.40.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 68.83 68.85 68.58 68.68 68.75 68.92 69.02 69.09 Consolidation
EURINR 73.04 73.02 72.66 72.77 72.91 73.16 73.27 73.41 Bullish
GBPINR 85.81 85.70 84.82 85.07 85.44 86.07 86.32 86.69 Consolidation
JPYINR 61.21 61.33 60.66 60.92 61.06 61.47 61.73 61.88 Bullish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.86 68.02 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 68.64 67.59 67.09 67.04 67.12
EURINR 72.96 72.15 75.64 72.07 77.49 70.29 72.78 73.12 73.71 74.23 74.79
GBPINR 85.90 83.88 86.00 80.89 101.87 80.89 85.40 84.11 83.72 85.94 90.57
JPYINR 61.78 60.20 66.11 60.20 68.11 53.86 61.10 62.57 63.88 64.55 63.11

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.74 68.76 68.62 68.66 -0.12 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 68.94 68.94 68.77 68.83 -0.10 1468704 -12929 759751 -2033805
SPOT EURINR 72.78 72.89 72.66 72.81 -0.14 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 73.14 73.14 72.89 73.04 -0.20 35518 1894 32439 -20052
SPOT GBPINR 85.16 85.76 85.08 85.60 0.27 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 85.34 85.95 85.33 85.81 0.22 28497 5584 47548 -43772
SPOT JPYINR 61.25 61.38 60.93 60.97 -0.29 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 61.54 61.59 61.18 61.21 -0.31 18444 3572 25083 -16031

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/29/2016 15:00 UK Mortgage Approvals Oct 65.0k 67.5k 62.9k
11/29/2016 15:30 EC Economic Confidence Nov 106.8 106.5 106.3
11/29/2016 15:30 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -6.1 -6.1 -6.1
11/29/2016 19:00 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 3.00% 3.20% 2.90%
11/29/2016 19:00 US Personal Consumption 3Q S 2.30% 2.80% 2.10%
11/29/2016 19:00 US GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.50% 1.40% 1.50%
11/29/2016 20:30 US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 101.3 107.1 98.6
11/30/2016 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Oct P -1.40% 4.50% 1.50%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/30/2016 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Nov A -- 0.80%
11/30/2016 16:30 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crores Oct -- --
11/30/2016 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 25-Nov -- 5.50%
11/30/2016 17:30 IN GDP YoY 3Q 7.50% 7.10%
11/30/2016 17:30 IN GVA YoY 3Q 7.20% 7.30%
11/30/2016 18:45 US ADP Employment Change Nov 160k 147k
11/30/2016 19:00 US Personal Income Oct 0.40% 0.30%
11/30/2016 19:00 US Personal Spending Oct 0.50% 0.50%
11/30/2016 19:00 US PCE Deflator YoY Oct 1.50% 1.20%
11/30/2016 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov 52.00 50.60
11/30/2016 20:30 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Oct -- 2.00%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]