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Figure 2: Share of NR in the world natural rubber production according to the major p
Source: FAOSTAT, 2016
The world rubber consumption
Rubber consumption ('000 tons)
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The result was the relative share from the developed countries in total world
demand declined from 66.6 in 1978 to 55.9 in 1988 and further fell to 50.5 in
1998/2000 as Table 6-17. The large reduction of share was observed in Europe and
North America in 1988 and further continued in 1998/2000. They remained
important consuming countries at least before 2000 (FAO, 1990).
On other hand, the developing countries consumed about 1.257 million tons
in 1978, rose to 2.259 million tons in 1988 and continued a trend fastest growth of
demand by about 3.262 million tons in 1998-2000 with regarding to industrialization
and the grow of economic. The relative share has sharply increased from 33.1 % in
1978 to 44.1 % in 1988 and still grew to 47.6 % in 1989/2000. The proportion of NR
consumption from the developing countries would share to above 50.0 % in the
2000s. There has been the structural change in the market structure (FAO, 2000b,
2003).
The world rubber consumption enter period of boom during the early 2000s
corresponds to the strong economic growth in developing countries essentially
driving by China economics.
Price rose once more than the out of break of Korean War but it have been
high instability and a trend slow-down in the end of period. The world consumption
of rubber has increased from the lowest of 17.586 million tons in 2001 to over
20.593 million tons in 2004 and rose to peak of 24.864 million tons in 2011 as Table
6-18 shows.
The rate of growth was by about 4.1 % per annum. The growing consumption
reflected the movement of economic development and its growth, which was grew
in specific regional trends. The production of the world rubber has been lower than
consumption since 2005. By the supply side, the growth rate of production grew by
about 3.7 % per annum, which resulted to have a trend deficit of production along
the period. The world rubber production has increased from 17.815 million tons in
2001 to over 20.721 million tons in 2004 and rose to 24.481 million tons in 2011. On
the basis of the world rubber consumption, share of NR consumption has steadily
increased from 41.7 % in the world rubber consumption to over 43.0 % in 2005 and
then thereafter have been stabilized in market share. It reflected the growth of
demand for NR at faster rate during the 2000s.
On other hand, share of SR consumption declined from 58.3 % in 2001 to
lower 55.6 % in 2008 and steadily increased over 56.7 % during 2009-2011. The
rated of SR share in the world consumption has decreased by about -2.8 % per
annum. The major reason for the decline expansion of SR consumption was the high
peak oil price during 2003-2008. The oil price rose above 30 U.S dollar per barrel
during 2003 and reached to the average of 60 dollar per barrel in 2005 and peaked
at 147.30 U.S dollar per barrel in 2008. The period of peak oil price has affected to
increase production cost in SR production which stipulated to decline of SRs share
in the world rubber consumption. This trend continued into the early 2010s
corresponding to uncertainty of politics and the world recession in developed
countries (FAO, 2003; RRIT, 2012).
Table 6-19 shows the levels of consumption in major consuming countries. There
has been structural change in rubber market from the developed countries into the
developing countries. China is the world largest consuming countries since 2001.
The consumption was about 1.330 million tons in 2001 and rose to over 2.00 million
tons in 2004 and peaked at 3.646 million tons in 2010, reflecting the economic
growth and high demand for motor vehicles and rubber goods. NR consumption has
doubled since 2003. About 16 % per annum was the highest growth of NR
consumption. Share of NR consumption in the world NR consumption has increased
gradually during this period from 18.1 % in 2001 to peak of 36.3 % in 2009 and
slightly declined to 32.0 % in 2011 as
Figure 6-14 shows. This indicates that the boom of NR in this period driven by the
great NR consumption from China. USA is the second largest consumer. NR
consumption was about 0.974 million tons in 2001 and rose to the annual average
of 1.07 million tons during 2002-2008 and fell sharply to 0.687 million tons in 2009
corresponding to economic crisis to mark by the great recession economics and
subprime mortgage crisis in the end of 2008. The consumption began to recover by
about 1.029 million tons in 2001 reflected on stable situation in economic recovery
and possibility against with Fiscal cliff, even through this problem will be forced a
trend slow-down in growth of consumption. During the 2000s, NR consumption from
USA has declined and their share in the world NR consumption has decreased
substantially from 13.3 % to 9.6 % in 2011. This declining trend appears largely
because of the increase demand for NR from China.
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