Probability of Events 1

Module 4 Application Assignment

Probability of Events

Samantha DiMatteo

Marygrove College

(1) What should students understand about the relationship

between experimental and theoretical probability? Why is this
Probability of Events 2

important?

It is important that students understand the relationship between

experimental probability and theoretical probability. Students need to

be cognizant of the fact that just because an event is theoretically

likely to occur, does not mean that it will occur. Van de Walle, Karp, and

Bay-Williams (2016) state, "theoretical probability is based on a logical

analysis of the experiment, not on the experiment results (p. 460).

Conducting experiments can however, help students make predictions

about the likelihood that an event will occur. Haller and Richardson

(2004) help support this notion by referencing the 1989 NCTM, the

mathematics curriculum should include explorations of probability in

real-world situations so that students can make predictions about

probabilities (p. 192). It is also important for students to recognize

that collecting larger samples of data during an experiment will often

yield an experimental result that mimics the theoretical probability

more closely. Van de Walle, Karp, and Bay-Williams (2016) state,

"probability is more about predictions over the long term than

predictions of individual events (p. 459). Both types of probability

have valid roles in mathematics and should be emphasized in the

classroom.
Probability of Events 3

(2) For two independent events, the probability that both

occur is the product of the probabilities of the individual
events. That is, P (A and B) = P(A)P(B), if A and B are
independent. A two-stage rocket has the following
probabilities for failure: The probability for failure at stage 1 is
1/2 at stage 2, the probability of failure is 1/8. What is the
probability of a successful flight, given that the stages are
independent?

1
If a two-stage rocket has a probability for failure at stage 1
2

1
and a probability of failure at stage 2 this implies that the
8

7
probability of a successful flight is . Van de Walle, Karp, and Bay-
16

Williams (2016) explain, "probability is a ratio that compares the

desired outcomes to the total possible outcomes" (p. 559). This

probability is determined by first considering that for two independent

events, the probability that both occur is the product of the

probabilities of the individual events. The probability of failure of the

1
first event was which indicates that the probability of success is
2

1
also because the sum of both the probability of failure and
2

success must yield a total of 1. The probability of failure of the second

Probability of Events 4

1 7
event was which suggests that the probability of success is .
8 8

Now since I had identified the probability of success of each event

independently I could find the total probability of a successful flight by

taking the product of the two events together; this yielded a final result

7
of .
16

(3) Consider a pair of octahedral dice, where each die has the
following numbers on its faces: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. If you are
interested in the sum of the two faces that appear, what are
the possible sums? Are all of these sums equally likely?
Explain. P(n) represents the probability of obtaining a sum of n
on two octahedral dice. Find each of the following
probabilities: P(7), P(16), P(8 or 12), and P(odd or 10).

The sums of the faces of a pair of octahedral dice, where each

die has the following numbers on its faces: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 can

most easily be determined by using a table that shows every possible

sum [see below]. Van De Walle, Karp, and Bay-Williams (2013) explain,

When the probability of an event is known, probability can be

established theoretically by examining all the possibilities (p. 459).

There are 64 possible scenarios that yield the sum of the two

faces of the octahedral dice. All of these sums are not equally likely.
Probability of Events 5

This can easily be seen on the chart; sums of 2 and 16 are the least

likely to occur, while a sum of 9 is most likely to occur. The probability

6 3 1
of rolling a 7 is or . The probability of rolling a 16 is ,
64 32 64

because the only scenario that yields a 16 is if an 8 is rolled on both

7
die. The probability of rolling a sum of 8 is , and the probability
64

5
of rolling a sum of 12 is . However, to obtain a sum of either an 8
64

or a 12 we must take the sum of each of these individual events;

7 5 12 3
+ = = . The probability of rolling a sum of an odd number
64 64 64 16

32 7
is , and the probability of rolling a sum of a 10 is ; therefore
64 64

the probability of either one of these individual events occurring is

32 7 39
+ = .
64 64 64

Although the theoretical probability of each event is easily

depicted on the chart, this is also an activity that is worth identifying

the experimental probability of, so that students can compare and

discuss the similarities or differences in results. Van de Walle, Karp,

and Bay-Williams (2016) state, Actually conducting experiments and

examining outcomes in teaching probability is important in helping

Probability of Events 6

students address common misconceptions and in building deeper

understanding for why certain things are more likely than others (p.

462). It is also important to emphasize the importance of when to take

the product of individual events and when to take the sum. Probability

has endless real-life

12 3 4 5 6 7 8
applications and questions
12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
23 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 such at the ones in this

0 assignment offer up good

34 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 opportunities for students to
0 1
explore the different types of
45 6 7 8 9 1 1 1
probability.
0 1 2
56 7 8 9 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3
67 8 9 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4
78 9 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5
89 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability of Events 7

References

Haller, S. K., & Richardson, M. G. (2004). Comparing Kisses.

Mathematics Teaching in the Middle School, 10(4), 190193.

Van de Walle, J. A., Karp, K. S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2013).

Elementary and middle school mathematics methods: Teaching
developmentally (8 th ed.). Pearson: Boston.