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CarnivalGameProject

Introduction
:

CarnivalgamesdatebacktotheroyalcourtsoftheRenaissance,wheretheyincluded

simplecardgames,tricks,andothersportsactivities.However,evenuntilthisday,carnival

gameshavehadonegoal:tomakemoney.Thatisexactlywhatthisgamewillbeaccomplish.

Thismultistagespinnergameissuretoturnaprofitaswellasprovideanexcitinggamefor

players.

Part1Description,Rules,andDirections
:

Thiscarnivalgameconsistsofa16wedgespinnerthatconsistsofoneludicrousspeed

(1stprize)space,tworidiculousspeed(2ndprize)spaces,threelightspeed(3rdprize)

spacesandtenplaidlosingspaces.Onthefirstspin,onlytheludicrousspeedspacewillwin.

Onthesecondspin,eitherofthetworidiculousspeedspaceswillwin.Onthethirdspin,anyof

thethreelightspeedspaceswillwin.Afterawinningspinorthreeconsecutivelosingspins,the

gameisoverandtheplayermustonceagainstartoutbyattemptingtolandonludicrousspeed

andsoon.Theplayerpaysasetamountofmoney($5)foreitherexactlythreespinsonthe

wheeloronewinningspin(whicheveroccursfirst).Iftheplayerwinsonthefirstspin(1outof16

spaceswin),hewins$20.Iftheplayerwinsonthesecondspin(2outof16spaceswin),he

wins$15.Iftheplayerwinsonthethirdspin(3outof16spaceswin),hewins$10.Otherwise,

theplayerlosesthe$5thathepaidtoplaythegame.

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Figure1.PictureofSpinner

Part2TheoreticalProbability1(ProbabilityofWinning/Losing)
:

Therearefourpotentialoutcomesinthisgame:awinonthefirstspin(outcomeA),awin

onthesecondspin(outcomeB),awinonthethirdspin(outcomeC),andnowin(outcomeD).

Sinceonespaceonthesixteenspacedspinnerwinsonthefirstspin,P(A)=1/16or0.0625.

TheplayermustloseonthefirstspinandlandononeoftwospacesforoutcomeB,soP(B)can

becalculatedasshowninFigure2,below.

P(B)=(15/16)*(2/16)

P(B)=30/256

P(B) 0.1171875

Figure2.CalculationsforP(B)

Theplayermustloseonthefirsttwospinsandlandononeofthreespacesforoutcome

C,soP(C)canbecalculatedasshowninFigure3,below.

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P(C)=(15/16)*(14/16)*(3/16)

P(C)=315/2048

P(C) 0.1538

Figure3.CalculationsforP(C)

Finally,theplayermustloseonallthreespinsforoutcomeD,soP(D)canbecalculated

asshowninFigure4,below.

P(D)=(15/16)*(14/16)*(13/16)

P(D)=1365/2048

P(D) 0.6665

Figure4.CalculationsforP(D)

AlloftheseoutcomesaredisplayedintheweightedtreediagraminFigure5,below.

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Figure5.WeightedTreeDiagram

Part3TheoreticalProbability2(ExpectedValue)
:

Theexpectedvalueofthisgameistheexpectedprofitorlosspergameplayed.Thiscan

becalculatedbymultiplyingthenetprofitsoftheoutcomesbytheirrespectiveprobabilities(A,

B,C,andD)andaddingthesetotalsup.(Note:Thetheoreticalprobabilitiesusedtocalculate

expectedvalueareunchangeable,however,theycanandwillbechangedlaterinthispaper

withtheexperimentalprobabilitiestocalculateanexpectedvaluespecifictoacertain

simulationsresults).Inthisexamplehere,theexpectedvalueiscalculatedintheperspectiveof

theowner.

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E(x)=15*P(A)+10*P(B)+5*P(C)+5*P(D)=465/1024 $0.45

Figure6.ExpectedValueCalculations

Thisvalueof0.45representstheamountofmoneygainedbytheownereachtimethey

playthegameinthelongrun.Thismeansthattheownerwillearnanaverageof45centsper

gameplayedovertime(inotherwords,theplayerofthegamewillloseanaverageof45cents

pergameovertime).

Part4RelativeFrequencies
:

a) Playthegamefor50trials

Afterthespinnerwasbuilt,itwasspunfor50trials.Whenthesetrialswere

conducted,therewere18winningtrialsoutofthe50(or32losingtrialsof50).11won

onthethirdspin,6wononthesecondspin,andonly1wononthefirstspin.The

experimentalprobabilityofwinningnothingiscalculatedtobe0.64,orslightlylessthan

thetheoreticalprobabilityofabout0.6665.Theexperimentalprobabilitiesofwinningon

thefirst,second,andthirdspinswouldthenbecalculatedas0.02,0.12,and0.22

respectively.Theexperimentalprobabilityofwinningonthefirstspinismuchlowerthan

itscorrespondingtheoreticalprobabilityof0.0625.Theprobabilitiesofwinningonthe

secondspin,bothexperimentalandtheoretical,areverysimilar,at0.12and0.1171875

respectively.Theexperimentalprobabilityofwinningonthethirdspinwasalotlarger

thanthetheoreticalprobabilityinthiscase,withtherespectiveprobabilitiesbeing0.22

and0.1538.Whentheexpectedvaluewascalculatedinthistrialrun,itwasfoundtobe

$0.60pergameprofitfortheownerovertime.Thiswouldgiveatotalofa$30profit

duringthis50gametrial.

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b) Simulate500trials(calculator)

Toconductthe500trials,threecolumnsof500randomizednumbersfrom116

weregenerated(showninFigure7,below).Thenumberof1sinthefirstcolumnwere

thencountedaswins(1outof16wins)onthefirstspinresultingina$25prizebeing

awardedtotheplayer.Next,thesecondcolumnwassearchedforallofthe1sand2sto

becountedaswins(2outof16win)onthesecondspinresultingina$15prizebeing

awardedtotheplayer.However,ifthewinonthesecondspinwasaccompaniedbya

winonthefirstspin(a1appearinginthefirstcolumn)thenthesecondwinwasnot

countedastheplayersturnwouldhaveendedwiththefirstwin.Finally,thethe1s,2s,

and3sinthethirdcolumnwerecountedaswins(3outof16win)onthethirdspin

resultingina$10prizebeingawardedtotheplayer.Aswiththesecondspin,anywin

inthethirdcolumnwasnegatediftherewasawininthefirstcolumn(a1appearing)or

awininthesecondcolumn(eithera1or2appearing).Afterthesimulationwas

conducted,therewere169winnersoutofthe500players(or331losersoutof500

players).Thisyieldsaprobabilityofwinningnothingtobe0.662,orslightlylessthanthe

theoreticalprobabilityof0.6665.Ofthe169winners,31wononthefirstspin,54

wononthesecondspin,and84wononthethirdspin.Thesegiveprobabilitiesof

winningonthefirst,second,andthirdspinstobe0.062,0.108,and0.168respectively.

Theexperimentalprobabilityofwinningonthefirstspin(0.062)wasnearlyidenticalto

thetheoreticalprobabilityof0.0625.Theexperimentalprobabilityofwinningonthe

secondspin,however,wasabitlowerthanthetheoreticalprobability(0.108and

0.1171875respectively).Theoppositecanbesaidfortheprobabilitiesofwinningonthe

thirdspin,astheexperimentalprobabilitywasslightlyhigherthanthetheoretical

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probability(0.168and0.1538respectively).Theexperimentalexpectedvalueinthis

simulationwascalculatedtobe$0.46gainedpergamebytheowner.Thiswillgivethe

gameowneraprofitof$230fromthis500gamesimulation.

Figure7.SimulationsOnaCalculation

c)Simulate5000(JavaProgram)

First,5wasaddedtothebalance,whichstartedat0.Theoccurrencesof

outcomesA,B,C,andDwerealsosetto0.Then,arandomdecimalnumberbetween0

and1wasgenerated.IfthegeneratednumberwaslessthanP(A),1/16,thenthe

occurrencesofoutcomeAwasincreasedby1.Ifnot,thegeneratednumberwas

comparedtoseeifitwaslessthanP(A)+P(B),13/128,andtheoccurrencesofoutcome

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Bwasincreasedby1.Ifnot,thegeneratednumberwascheckedtoseeifitwasless

thanP(A)+P(B)+P(C),683/2048,andifitwastheoccurrencesofoutcomeCwas

increasedby1.Ifnoneoftheprecedingconditionsweremet,thentheoccurrencesof

outcomeDwasincreasedby1.Thisprocesswaslooped5000tosimulate5000trials.

Afterward,theprogramremoved20timestheoccurrencesofA,15timesthe

occurrencesofB,and10timestheoccurrencesofCfromthebalance.Theoccurrences

ofeachoutcomewasthenreturnedalongwiththebalance.RefertotheAppendixfora

moreindepthandtechnicalexplanationoftheprogram.

Figure8.ValuesReturnedbytheJavaprogram.

Figure8,above,showstheresultsoftheJavasimulation.Thefirstnumberisthe

occurrencesofA,thesecondistheoccurrencesofB,thethirdistheoccurrencesofC,

thesecondtolastistheoccurrencesofD,andthelastisthefinalbalance.Inthisrunof

thesimulation,Aoccurred340,soitsrelativeprobabilityiscalculatedasfollows.

P(A)=340/5000

P(A)=17/250

P(A)=0.068

Figure9.MathfortheRelativeFrequencyofA.

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TherelativeprobabilityofAisslightlyhigherthanthetheoreticalprobabilityofA,

0.0625,comingouttobe0.0055higherthanthetheoreticalprobability,slightlymore

thanhalfofapercent.Boccurred580timesinthisrunofthesimulation,soitsrelative

probabilityiscalculatedasfollows:

P(B)=580/5000

P(B)=29/250

P(B)=0.116

Figure10.MathfortheRelativeFrequencyofB.

TherelativeprobabilityofBisslightlylowerthanthetheoreticalprobabilityofB,

around0.1172,comingouttoberoughly0.0012lower,slightlymorethanatenthofa

percent.Coccurred751timesinthisrunofthesimulation,soitsrelativeprobabilityis

calculatedasfollows:

P(C)=751/5000

P(C)=0.1502

Figure11.MathfortheRelativeFrequencyofC.

TherelativeprobabilityofCisslightlylowerthanitstheoreticalprobability,

around0.1538,comingoutotberoughly0.0036lower,oraroundathirdofapercent.D

occurred3329timesinthisrunofthesimulation,soitsrelativeprobabilityiscalculated

asfollows:

P(D)=3329/5000

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P(D)=0.6658

Figure12.MathfortheRelativeFrequencyofD

TherelativeprobabilityofDisjustbarelylowerthanitstheoreticalprobability,

around0.6665,comingoutotberoughly0.0007lower,notevenatenthofapercent.

Theexpectedvalueacross5000trialsis5000timestheexpectedvalueofasingle

game,whichcomestoberoughly$2270.51.Thisisafairbithigherthantheobserved

valueinthissimulation,$1990,around$180.51higherthantheobservedvalue.

Expectedvaluecanbecalculatedbasedontherelativeprobabilitiesfoundbasedoffof

thissimulation,andwouldbedoneasfollows.

E($)=15*0.068+10*0.116+5*0.1502+5*0.6658

E($)=1.02+1.16+0.751+3.329

E($)=0.398

Figure13.MathfortheExpectedValuebasedonRelativeFrequenciesofthe

Simulation.

Thisexpectedvalueisafairbitlowerthanthetheoreticalexpectedvalueofthe

game,almostaround0.052less,rightaround5cents.Thismeans5centslessisbeing

madeoneveryplaywithinthesimulationthanintheoreticalplaysofthegame.

d)Compare/ContrastSimulations

Whilethesimulationsdidnotallhaveexactlythesameexpectedvalue,theyallstill

returnedpositive,andnotdrasticallyfarfromthetheoreticalexpectedvalue.Somewhat

surprisingly,ahighertrialcountdidnotcorrespondtoanexpectedvalueclosertothe

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theoreticalexpectedvalue.Infact,thethesimulationwith500trialswassignificantly

closertothetheoreticalexpectedvaluethanthesimulationwith5000trials,being

roughly0.04closertothetheoreticalexpectedvalue.Thiscanlikelybeattributedto

unintentionallyweightedrandomnumbergenerators.Theindividualprobabilitiesof

outcomeswasmostlyconsistentthroughoutsimulationsandtheory.

Part5Summary
:

Overall,thiscarnivalgameisnotonlyamoneymakerbutalsoanenticinggameforthe

player.Whenplayingthegameaplayercanalwaystrytogetbackatleastdoubletheirmoneyif

theywin.Withtheabilitytowinthreetimesandtheirchanceofwinningincreasingwithevery

spintheycaneasilybesuckedintothegame,evenifitistrulynotintheiradvantage.People

playingthisgamewilloftenbetrickedintobelievingthesocalledlawofaverages.Thismay

makethembelievethatbecausetheyhavealreadylost1or2spinstheyaredueforawinon

their2ndor3rdspin.Theuseofonemultitierspinningsystemreallyplaysintopeople'sbeliefin

thelawofaveragesandwillconvincepeopletocontinueplayingthegameeveniftheyhave

consistentlybeenlosingthegame.However,ifonlyplayingthegameafewtimes,thereisstilla

goodchancetheplayerwillemergeawinneratleastonce,promptingthemtokeepchasing

anotherwinevenifdoingsowillactuallymakethemlosemoney.

Usingtheoreticalprobabilityitwasexpectedthat,onaverage,everygamewouldyield

theowner$0.45.Actuallyplayingthegamefor50trialsprovidedapergameprofitaverageof

$0.60,slightlyhigherthanthetheoreticalprobabilityof$0.45.Runningacalculatorsimulation

for500trialsyieldedanexpectedvalueof$0.46gainedpergamebytheowner,almostidentical

tothetheoreticalprobability.RunningaJavasimulationfor5000trialsgaveanexpectedvalue

of$0.398,lowerthanthetheoreticalexpectedvalue.Thisisapositivenetgainforthegame

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ownersinallcasesandtheexpectedvaluewasquiteconsistentbetweenthetheoreticaland

experimentalprobabilities.

Inaddition,allthreeofthegroupmembersparticipatedgreatlythroughouttheproject.

Thethoughtprocessandinitialideaswereallcollectivewithallthreemembersgivinginputuntil

theideawasfinalized.Everyonealsohelpedbuildthegame.Francoiswroteaconsiderable

chunkofthepaper,butbothBostonandJacobwrotetheirownconsiderableamounts.TheJava

programwascreatedbyBostonandsimulationsusingthetinspirecalculatorwererunby

Francois.

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Appendix

Figure14.TheExactCodeUsedintheJavaSimulation.

InFigure14,above,theveryfirstlineisusedtoimportthepackageusedtogeneratea

randomdecimal.Lines3and4areusedtomakesureJavacanruntheprogram,anddonot

influencethesimulation.Lines6through10areusedtoinitiateanddefinevariables,allbeing

definedatzero.Balancecorrespondstothenetchangeinthebalanceofwhoeverisrunningthe

game,firstcorrespondstohowmanytimesAoccurred,secondcorrespondstohowmanytimes

Boccurred,thirdcorrespondstohowmanytimesCoccurred,andnonecorrespondstohow

manytimesDoccurred.Line12tellsthesimulationtorun5000timesbyinitiatingthevariablei

as0,checkingifiislessthan5000,andadding1toieverytimeitfinishesrunningthroughthe

simulation.Line14simulateschargingtheplayer$5byadding5tobalance.Line16generates

therandomdecimalandsavesittothevariablespin.Lines18through21areusedtocheckthe

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valueofspinandincreasetheoutcomeoccurrencevariablesasdescribedinthemainsection.

Line25isusedtoremovetherewardsfrombalancebymultiplyinganoutcomesworthbyits

totaloccurrencesandsubtractingthatnumberfrombalance.Line27printsfirst,second,third,

none,andbalancetotheconsoleafterthesimulationhasended.

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Geuss,Megan."TeslaAddsludicrousModetoModelS,NowGoes0to60in2.8Seconds."

ArsTechnica
.CondNast,17July2015.Web.16Mar.2016.

<http://arstechnica.com/cars/2015/07/teslaaddsludicrousmodetomodelsnowgoes0

to60in28seconds/>.

Gross,Jason."11ThingsWeWantToSeeInSpaceballs2:TheSearchForMoreMoney."

UnderScoopFireRSS
.UnderScoopFire,n.d.Web.16Mar.2016.

<http://underscoopfire.com/spaceballs2searchformoremoney/>.

McIntyre,Drew."TowardsSchismatLudicrousSpeed."
DrewMcIntyrePlowsharesInto

Swords
.WordPress,22May2014.Web.16Mar.2016.

<http://drewbmcintyre.com/2014/05/22/towardsschismatludicrousspeed/>.

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