Energy for Sustainability

Randolph & Masters, 2008

Chapters 3:
Energy Futures
 Four approaches to planning and
visioning the future
projecting and forecasting emphasize trend analysis

roadmapping seeks to maximize development of a specific

technology or objective

developing solution wedges begins with needs assessment

then investigates the various means of meeting a portion or
wedge of those needs

developing scenarios embraces the uncertainties of any future

visioning, identifies driving forces, and uses storylines to articulate
different possible futures.
Forecasting
Projections: extend past trends
Forecasts: predictions based on projections
modified by expected assumptions of driving
forces, such as demographic or economic
factors
Both are usually wrong
But they do provide a baseline, a business
as usual (BAU) future
BAU Forecasts, Reality, and
Desired Future Condition approach
 Roadmaps
Roadmaps or blueprints do not try to predict what will be but describe
what could be by tracing a plausible path to a future maximizing a
selected technology or objective.
Examples: (see table 3.1)
25% Renewable Energy for the United States by 2025
Energy Efficiency Technology Roadmap
A Responsible Energy Plan for America
The U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap Through 2030
Renewable Energy Future for the Developing World
Americas Oil Shale: A Roadmap for Federal Decision Making
Transitioning to a Renewable Energy Future
Technology Roadmap: Energy Efficiency in Existing Homes
Small Wind Energy Roadmap
National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems
Clean Coal Technology Roadmap
Clean Energy Blueprint
Nuclear Roadmap to Gen IV
Solution wedges
1. Determine a desired future condition (DFC).
2. Divide the necessary action needed to achieve the
DFC into increments or wedges.
3. Explore multiple options of reducing oil imports and
quantify what each could achieve in terms of the
solution wedges.
4. The analysis of each option would determine what
would be needed for each to produce one or more
solution wedges.
Solution wedges example: U.S. Petroleum Imports
Developing Scenarios
1. Pose a key focus question about the future
2. Identify drivers or factors that will affect the answer to that
question
3. Prioritize, cluster and ultimately combine the drivers into two
critical uncertainties that serve as the axes of a 2-by-2
scenario matrix
4. Develop scenario storylines describing the future associated
with each of the four pairs of drivers in the four quadrants of
the matrix. To the extent possible, the storylines should reflect
accurate technical information.
5. Label each quadrant scenario
 Four Futures for China, Inc.

1. Emperor of Business: China

grows peacefully and plays by
the rules
2. Emperors New Clothes:
Chinas growth rate is short-
lived; it becomes a bigger
Brazil
3. Emperor of Asia: China
grows, but only as fast as its
neighbors
4. Emperor of the World:
Chinas speedy growth tips all
of the scales in its favor.
Visions of the Future Energy
Official government forecasts, business-
as-usual (BAU) visions of the future
Several other visions of U.S. energy or
energy sectors
Recent visions emphasizing possibilities for
renewable energy and efficiency
Global visions for reducing carbon
emissions
BAU: U.S. EIA Global Consumption
EIA Global Energy by Source
EIA Global CO2 Emissions
EIA Global CO2 by Source
IEA Global CO2
and Alternative Scenario
EIA U.S. Energy Projections (quads)
EIA: U.S. Energy by Source (quads)
EIA: U.S. Electricity by Source (TWh)
EIA: U.S. CO2 Emissions
EIA: Energy/capita, Energy Intensity
Other Visions: AMIGA Scenarios
1. The Official Future: EIA BAU
Optimistic, surprise-free, more of the same
2. Cheap Energy Reigns Supreme
Abundant, inexpensive oil and gas
Pax Americana, free market, surprise-free
3. Big Problems Ahead
Limited access to Persian Gulf energy resources
Frustration, malaise, anxiety discourages investment in
new technology
4. Technology Drives the Market
Private investment, regulatory reform, economic policy
spur commercialization of renewable energy & efficiency

Plus Challenge & Response:

Big Surprise (climate change) & Policy Response
AMIGA Energy Use
AMIGA
GDP, CO2
EPRI Scenario for Electricity
Could go in any direction
The Age of Energy Gases: Hydrogen Economy
The Appeal & Problems with Hydrogen

The Hydrogen Economy sounds great!

Perfect fuel, options to burn or convert to
electricity in fuel cells, use in vehicles and
stationary distributed energy systems
but where do you get it?
how do you transport it?
how do you store it?
what infrastructure is needed to use it?
when can all of this happen?
Visions for
Renewable
Energy &
Efficiency

Amory Lovins
Soft Energy Path

Foreign Affairs
October 1976
Amory Lovins: Soft Energy Path
Get more out of
primary energy:
1. match source
energy to end use &
2. improve end-use
efficiency
to
a. reduce conversion
losses &
b. enhance functions
performed
Lovins II: Winning the Oil End Game
25 x 25 Movement: 25% renewable energy by 2025
Renewable energy required to meet 25 x 25

Biomass Energy needed to support 25 x 25

scenario

Univ. of Tennessee, 2006

Pacala & Socolow,
Carbon Stabilization Wedges
(Science, 2004)
 Need Seven 1-GtC/year wedges by 2054 to be on road to stabilization
Possible sources of wedges:
4 - energy efficiency
4 - renewable energy
3 - CO2 capture & storage
2 - forestry and agricultural soils
1 - nuclear power
Opportunities for 15 wedges (table 3.6)
IPCC Development
Scenarios
Four scenarios of global development
are characterized by the economic-
environmental continuum
and the global-regional development
continuum:

A1: Rapid economic growth, population peaks mid-century then declines, rapid
introduction of new technologies: A1FI-fossil-intensive; A1T-nonfossil; A1B-
balanced
A2: Heterogeneous world, self-reliance, local identities; increasing population;
economic growth and technological change slower and more fragmented
B1: Same population as A1, but convergent world rapidly changing to service
and information economy, less materially intensive, clean and efficient
technologies; sustainability emphasis
B2: Population increase but lower than A2; local solutions to sustainability; less
rapid and more diverse economic and technological change than A1 and B1
Carbon and Impact Futures

A1T
B1
So, energy tied to development scenarios, and
much depends on population
Global Growth of Population, Energy, GDP 1800-2000
Can we grow the economy while
stabilizing population and energy?
Sustainable Energy Future?

EIA BAU, 2030