Standard error of the mean the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample means - measures the degree of accuracy of the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean (1667-1754) (1667-1754) (1667-1754) - Proved the first version of the Central Limit Theorem by using the normal distribution in approximating the distribution of the number of heads that will result when a fair coin is tossed a large number of times (1749-1827) - Computed the probability of the sun 18,226,214 rising to be . 18,226,215 (1749-1827) - Computed the probability of the sun 18,226,214 rising to be . 18,226,215 (1749-1827) "But this number is far greater for him who, seeing in the totality of phenomena the principle regulating the days and seasons, realizes that nothing at the present moment can arrest the course of it." Roll a die 5 times and record the value of each roll. Find the mean of the values of the 5 rolls. Repeat this 250 times. x=3.504 s=.7826 n=5 Roll a die 10 times and record the value of each roll. Find the mean of the values of the 10 rolls Repeat this 250 times. x=3.48 s=.5321 n=10 Roll a die 20 times. Find the mean of the values of the 20 rolls. Repeat this 250 times. x=3.487 s=.4155 n=20 What do you notice about the shape of the distribution of sample means? THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
If samples of size , where is sufficiently
large, are drawn from any population with a mean of and a standard deviation of , then the sampling distribution of sample means approximate a normal distribution. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
If random samples of size are drawn
from a population, then as becomes larger, the sampling distribution of the mean approaches the normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the population distribution. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM Summary of ideas of Central Limit Theorem 1. As a sample size increases, the sampling distribution of means approaches a normal distribution. 2. The mean of the sampling distribution of means is equal to the mean of the population. = THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM Summary of ideas of Central Limit Theorem 3. The variance of the sampling distribution of means is equal to the variance of the population divided by the sample size . 2 2 =
4. The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of means is equal to the standard deviation of the population divided by the square root of the sample size .
=
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM Note: Used for infinite population (with replacement) THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM For sampling distribution of sample means,
= or
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM For sampling distribution of sample means,
= or =
where = = = = THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM For sampling distribution of sample means, Standard = or = deviation of the sample means
where = = = = THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXAMPLE1. The average time it takes for a group of college students to complete a certain examination is 46.2 minutes. The standard deviation is 8 minutes. Assume that the variable is normally distributied. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXAMPLE1. (cont..) a. What is the probability that a randomly selected college student will complete the examination in less than 43 minutes. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXAMPLE1. (cont..) a. SOLN.
for question a use = for conversion.
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM Asking about a EXAMPLE1. (cont..) data in the a. SOLN. population
for question a use = for conversion.
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXAMPLE1. (cont..) b. If 50 randomly selected college students take the examination, what is the probability that the mean time it takes the group to complete the test will be less than 43 minutes. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXAMPLE1. (cont..) a. SOLN.
for question b use = for conversion.
Asking a sample THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM mean in the sampling EXAMPLE1. (cont..) distribution of a. SOLN. means
for question b use = for conversion.
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXERCISE. The average number of milligrams (mg) of cholesterol in a cup of a certain brand of ice cream is 660 mg, and the standard deviation is 35 mg. Assume the variable is normally distributed. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXERCISE. (cont..) a. If a cup of ice cream is selected, what is the probability that the cholesterol content will be more than 670 mg? b. If a sample of 10 cup of ice cream is selected, what is the probability that the mean of the sample will be larger than 670 mg? THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM EXAMPLE2. GMA news reported that children between the ages of 2 and 5 watch an average of 25 hours of television per week. Assume the variable is normally distributed and the standard deviation is 3 hours. If 20 children between the ages of 2 and 5 are randomly selected, find the probability that the mean of the number of hours they watch television will be greater than 26.3 hours.