Ap04 SG Stat 37096 PDF

AP Statistics
2004 Scoring Guidelines
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AP STATISTICS
2004 SCORING GUIDELINES
Question 1
Solution
Part (a):
Additive A Additive B
IQR 4 1 = 3 25 ( 2 ) = 27
1.5*IQR 4.5 40.5
Q1 1.5 IQR 1 4.5 = 3.5 2 40.5 = 42.5
Q3 + 1.5 IQR 4 + 4.5 = 8.5 25 + 40.5 = 65.5
3 outliers no outliers
Part (b i):
Additive A is better at increasing the mileage in the greatest number of cars. The mileage increased for
at least seventy-five percent of the cars with additive A, whereas the mileage decreased for more than
twenty-five percent of the cars with additive B.
Part (b ii):
Additive B appears to produce a higher mean mileage gain than additive A. The boxplot for additive B
clearly shows that the distribution of differences is skewed to the right, which will pull the average
towards the larger values. The mean difference for additive B will be substantially greater than the
median of 1. On the other hand, the distribution of differences for additive A has much less variability,
as seen by comparing the lengths of the two boxes, and appears to be skewed to the left. The mean
difference for additive A will be less than the median of 3.
Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

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2
AP STATISTICS
Question 1 (contd.)
Scoring
Each part is scored as essentially correct, partially correct, or incorrect.
Part (a) is essentially correct if parallel boxplots are correctly drawn and the display includes labels. The labels
for additives A and B are required, but if the label for either axis (or both axes) is the only item missing then part
(a) is still scored as essentially correct.
Part (a) is partially correct if only one of the following occurs:

if neither additive A nor B is labeled, or the labels are reversed, OR
there is an error in the construction of the boxplots, OR
outliers are not correct, but otherwise the boxplots are correct.
Note: If the same error is present in the boxplot for Additive A as in the boxplot for Additive B, count this as
one error, not two.
Part (a) is incorrect if either of the following occur:

2 or 3 of the errors above are committed OR
the numbers provided in the stem of the problem are used as a data set to form the boxplots below.
INCORRECT BOXPLOTS USING SUMMARY STATISTICS AS DATA
Note: If the labeling is reversed for boxplots A and B, score parts (b i) and (b ii) consistently with the reversed
labels.

3
AP STATISTICS
Question 1 (contd.)
Part (b i) is essentially correct if additive A is selected as the additive that will increase the mileage in the
greatest number of cars and the explanation involves a comparison implicitly or explicitly using the first
quartiles from both distributions.
Part (b i) is partially correct if any of the following occur:

additive A is selected, but the only comparison is between the lower quartile of additive A and the
median of additive B, OR
additive A is selected as the additive that will increase the mileage in the greatest number of cars but the
comparison is weak or incomplete, such as relying only on variability or only on the median, OR
additive A is selected and justified by addressing either A or B, but there is no explicit comparison to
the other additive.
Part (b i) is scored as incorrect if any of the following occur:

additive A is selected, but no explanation is provided, OR
additive A is selected, but the explanation is incorrect, OR
additive B is selected, OR
summary statistics are used correctly in part (a), but used as data in part (b).
Part (b ii) is essentially correct if additive B is selected as the additive that will produce a higher mean mileage
gain and the explanation involves a comparison using the shapes of both distributions.
For additive A it is sufficient to refer to the effect of the outliers on the mean.
Part (b ii) is partially correct if any of the following occur:

additive B is selected as the additive that will produce a higher mean mileage gain but the comparison is
weak or incomplete, OR
additive B is selected and justified by addressing either A or B, but there is no explicit comparison to the
other additive, OR
additive A is selected, because the student argues that medians should be used to measure center instead
of means because of the outliers or because the distributions are skewed, OR
a comparison is made between A and B, but only one side, either left or right, is addressed for both
plots.
Part (b ii) is scored as incorrect if any of the following occur:

additive B is selected, but no explanation is provided,
additive B is selected, but the explanation is incorrect,
additive A is selected for any reason other than that stated above for partially correct,
summary statistics are used correctly in part (a), but used as data in part (b), OR
the student claims that the means cannot be determined from the information provided.

4
AP STATISTICS
Question 1 (contd.)
4 Complete Response
All three parts essentially correct
3 Substantial Response
Two parts essentially correct and 1 part partially correct
2 Developing Response
2 parts essentially correct and no parts partially correct

OR
One part essentially correct and 2 parts partially correct
OR
3 parts partially correct
1 Minimal Response
One part essentially correct and either 0 or 1 part partially correct

OR
No parts essentially correct and 2 parts partially correct

5
AP STATISTICS
Question 2
Solution
Part (a):
Block Volunteers Ages
1 1, 2 20, 21
2 10, 11 23, 24
3 8, 9 44, 44
4 3, 12 46, 47
5 4, 7 58, 60
6 5, 6 61, 62
Since these researchers believe that the condition of hair changes with age but not gender, the volunteers
are sorted from youngest to oldest. The volunteers in the sorted list are paired to form six blocks of size
two. More specifically, the youngest two volunteers are placed in the first block. The next two
volunteers in the sorted list are placed in the second block. This pairing continues until all six blocks of
two are formed, with the oldest two volunteers in the sixth block.
Part (b):
Block Volunteers Ages

Female 1 2, 10 20, 24
Female 2 8, 12 44, 46
Female 3 4, 5 60, 62
Male 1 1, 11 21, 23
Male 2 3, 9 47, 44
Male 3 6, 7 61, 58
Since these researchers believe that the condition of hair changes with both age and gender, the women
are sorted from youngest to oldest and then the men are sorted from youngest to oldest. The women
(men) in the sorted list are paired to form the blocks of size two. More specifically, the youngest two
women (men) are placed in a block. The next two youngest women (men) are placed in another block.
Finally, the oldest two women (men) are placed in another block.
Part (c):
No, the researchers in part (b) should not randomly select three blocks to receive the new formula and
then give the current formula to the other three blocks. They blocked on both age and gender to form
homogeneous groups because they believe hair condition differs with both age and gender. Giving the
youngest or oldest women (men) the same formula defeats the purpose of blocking. In a block design,
randomization should be carried out separately within each block. That is, for each block, two random
numbers are generated (via a random number generator or a table of random digits) and assigned to the
two volunteers. The volunteer with the smallest random number is given the new formula and the other
volunteer is given the current formula.

6
AP STATISTICS
Question 2 (contd.)
Scoring
Parts (a) and (b) are each scored as essentially correct if

1. the six blocks are correctly identified by volunteer number or age AND
2. the correct criterion for assigning volunteers to blocks is clearly stated.
Parts (a) and (b) are scored as partially correct if either component 1 or 2 above is correct.
Notes: 1. If at most two volunteers are misplaced, but it is clear that the student is blocking correctly,
component 1 can be considered to be correct.
2. Simply saying block by age or block by age and gender is not sufficient to get credit for
component 2. A student must indicate that the volunteers in each block are similar with respect to age
in part (a) or age and gender in part (b). However, if the student has correct blocks but only says to
block by age in part (a) and block by age and gender in part (b), this should only be penalized
once.
3. In part (a), if a student blocks correctly by age, each block happens to contain one male and one
female. If the student says or implies that this is an important part of the blocking criterion, then
component 2 is incorrect. If they simply comment or notice this fact but do not imply or say that it is
part of the criterion, component 2 could be correct.
Part (c) is essentially correct if the student recognizes that this is not an appropriate way to assign treatments
AND describes an appropriate method for assigning treatments within each block, including a method of
randomization that can be implemented by the reader.
Note: Simply saying use a random number table or flip a coin is not sufficient to get credit for the method
of randomization
Part (c) is partially correct if the student recognizes that this is not an appropriate way to assign treatments AND
either
1. assigns treatments randomly within blocks but lacks a method of randomization, OR
2. assigns treatments within each block with no mention of randomization, OR
3. gives a correct reason why the assignment is not appropriate.
Part (c) is incorrect if

1. the student says that this is an appropriate way to assign treatments, OR
2. NO is the only response, OR
3. NO is the response, but the reason is wrong or absent AND either
i) no indication is given about assigning treatments within blocks OR
ii) an alternative design is proposed (e.g., crossover, completely randomized).
Note: If in part (b) the student makes heterogeneous blocks (i.e., blocks contain one male and one female of
disparate ages), then saying YES with an appropriate method of randomization is essentially correct for
part (c). In the same situation, if the student says to assign treatments to the blocks with no randomization
method, this is scored partially correct for part (c).

7
AP STATISTICS
Question 2 (contd.)
4 Complete Response
2 parts essentially correct and no parts partially correct

OR
OR
3 parts partially correct
OR
One part essentially correct and 1 part partially correct
1 Minimal Response
One part essentially correct and 1 part partially correct

OR
OR
Note: One part essentially correct and one part partially correct
may be given a score of either 1 or 2 holistically.

8
AP STATISTICS
Question 3
Solution
Part (a):
X is not binomial since the trials are not independent and the conditional probabilities of selecting
a male change at each trial depending on the previous outcome(s), due to the sampling without
replacement.
Part (b):
10 9 8 7 5040
P ( X = 4) = = = 0.043
20 19 18 17 116280
Part (c):
No. If males and females were equally represented, the probability of observing four males is
small (0.043).
Part (d):
No, we can't generalize to the population of all brontosaurs because it is not reasonable to regard
this sample as a random sample from the population of all brontosaurs; there is reason to suspect
that this sampling method might cause bias.
Scoring
Parts (a), (b), and (c) are scored as essentially correct, partially correct, or incorrect. Part (d) is scored as
essentially correct or incorrect.
Part (a): Score as:
Essentially correct if the response indicates that

(i) trials are not independent, with an explanation that independence means the outcome on
any trial will not impact the probability of success on future trials OR
(ii) the probability of selecting a male on any given trial depends on the results of previous
trials.
Partially correct if the response indicates that

(i) the student is focusing on one of the concepts above, but discussion is weak OR
(ii) there is sampling without replacement without connection to one of the concepts under
Essentially Correct above.

9
AP STATISTICS
Question 3 (contd.)
Part (b): Score as:
Essentially correct if the probability is correctly computed (with minor arithmetic errors being
overlooked), with supporting work or rationale. A statement that this is a hypergeometric
distribution (either in Part(a) or Part(b)) will suffice. It is OK if the student leaves the answer as
the product of fractions. The probability that all four femurs belong to males can also be
10 10
4 0
computed by using the formula P ( X = 4) = = .043.
20
4

Partially correct if there is a correct answer (to 3 decimal places) with incomplete justification.
Incorrect if arithmetic errors result in a probability that is negative or greater than one.
Part (c): Score as:
Essentially correct if the probability provided in Part (b) is interpreted correctly.
Partially correct if it is not clear that the student used the probability from Part (b).
Incorrect if just a Yes or No is given without an explanation.
Part (d): Score as:
Essentially correct if the response indicates that generalization is not possible because this
sample
(i) cannot be viewed as a random sample of all brontosaurs OR
(ii) there is reason to suspect that this sample might not be representative of the
population at large.
Incorrect if No is given without an explanation.
Note: Discussions about conditions for inference are irrelevant.
Each essentially correct response is worth 1 point; each partially correct answer is worth point.

10
AP STATISTICS
Question 3 (contd.)
4 Complete Response
1 Minimal Response
IF A PAPER IS BETWEEN TWO SCORES (FOR EXAMPLE, 2 POINTS) USE A HOLISTIC

APPROACH TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO SCORE UP OR DOWN DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RESPONSE AND COMMUNICATION.

11
AP STATISTICS
Question 4
Solution
Part (a):
Let A be the event antibiotic A works.

Let B be the event antibiotic B works.
The probability that a child will be cured with Plan I is:
P ( Cure I ) = P ( A ) + P ( not A ) P ( B )
= 0.6 + (0.4 0.9)
= 0.96
The probability that a child will be cured with Plan II is:
P ( Cure II ) = P ( B ) + P ( not B ) P ( A )
= 0.9 + (0.1 0.6)
= 0.96
Part (b):
Treatment with antibiotic A costs $50, and treatment with antibiotic B costs $80.
The expected cost per child when Plan I is used for treatment is:
E ( Cost I ) = $50 0.6 + $130 0.4

= $30 + $52
= $82
The expected cost per child when Plan II is used for treatment is:
E ( Cost II ) = $80 0.9 + $130 0.1

= $72 + $13
= $85
Part (c):
Since the probability that a child will be cured is the same under either plan, some other criterion must be used
to make a recommendation. From a financial point of view, Plan I should be recommended because the
expected cost per child is less than Plan II.

12
AP STATISTICS
Question 4 (contd.)
Scoring
Part (a) is essentially correct if the probabilities of cure are calculated correctly with justification for both plans.
Plan I:
A works (0.6)
B works (0.9)
A doesnt work (0.4)
B doesnt work (0.1)
P ( Cure I ) = 0.6 + (0.4 0.9) = 0.96
OR
P ( Cure I ) = P ( A B ) = 0.6 + 0.9 - (0.6 0.9) = 0.96
OR
P ( Cure I ) = 1 - P ( not A ) P ( not B ) = 1 - (0.4) (0.1) = 0.96
Plan II:
B works (0.9)
A works (0.6)
B doesnt work (0.1)
A doesnt work (0.4)
P ( Cure II ) = 0.9 + (0.1 0.6) = 0.96
OR
P ( Cure II ) = P ( B A ) = 0.9 + 0.6 - (0.9 0.6) = 0.96
OR
P ( Cure II ) = 1 - P ( not B ) P ( not A ) = 1 - (0.1) (0.4) = 0.96

13
AP STATISTICS
Question 4 (contd.)
Part (a) is partially correct if
one of the two probabilities is calculated correctly with justification,
OR
both probabilities are correct with incomplete justifications.
Part (b) is essentially correct if the expected costs per child are calculated correctly with justification for both plans.
E ( Cost I ) = $50 0.6 + $130 0.4 E ( Cost I ) = $50+0.4 $80

= $30 + $52 OR = $50+$32
= $82 = $82
E ( Cost II ) = $80 0.9 + $130 0.1 E ( Cost II ) = $80+0.1 $50

= $72 + $13 OR = $80+$5
= $85 = $85
Part (b) is partially correct if

the expected cost per child is calculated correctly with justification for one of the two plans,
OR
both expected costs are correct with incomplete justifications,
OR
the expected costs are incorrectly calculated but the probabilities involved add up to 1. For example the
following computations would receive a partial.
= $50 0.6 + $80 0.4 = $30 + $32 = $62
= $80 0.9 + $50 0.1 = $72 + $5 = $77

14
AP STATISTICS
Question 4 (contd.)
In contrast, the following computations would receive an incorrect because the probabilities involved do not
add up to 1.
= $50 0.6 + $130 0.36 = $30 + $46.80 = $76.80
= $80 0.9 + $130 0.06 = $72 + $7.80 = $79.80
Part (c) is essentially correct if the recommendation contains a statistical argument based on parts (a) and (b). That is,
the student must base the recommendation on probabilities from part (a) and expected values from part (b). The
following two examples are essentially correct:
to make a recommendation. From a financial point of view, Plan I should be recommended because the
expected cost per child is less than Plan II.
to make a recommendation. Parents might prefer Plan II, regardless of its higher cost, because their child is
more likely to need only the first drug.
Part (c) is partially correct if the recommendation contains a statistical argument based only on part (a) or (b) but not
both.
Part (c) is incorrect if no recommendation is made.

15
AP STATISTICS
Question 4 (contd.)
4 Complete Response
Two parts essentially correct and no parts partially correct
OR
OR
Three parts partially correct
1 Minimal Response
One part essentially correct and either 0 or 1 part partially correct
OR

16
AP STATISTICS
Question 5
Solution
Part a:
H 0 : gender and satisfaction with health services offered by the hospital are independent (OR not
associated)
Ha : gender and satisfaction with health services offered by the hospital are dependent (OR
associated)
Chi-square test for association

( observed - expected) 2
2
Test statistic: =
all cells expected
Conditions: A random sample has been taken. The expected cell counts are large enough so that
the chi-square approximation can be used. (See the table below for the expected cell counts.)
That is, all four of the expected cell counts are at least 5 (or the smallest expected cell count is
92.8 which is greater than 5). We can use the chi-square approximation.
Expected counts are printed below observed counts
Male Female Total

1 384 416 800
371.20 428.80
2 80 120 200
92.80 107.20
Total 464 536 1000
Chi-Sq = 0.441 + 0.382 + 1.766 + 1.528 = 4.117

DF = 1, P-Value = 0.042
Because the p-value, 0.042, is less than 0.05, we can reject H 0 at significance level 0.05, and
conclude that there is evidence of an association between gender and satisfaction with health
services offered by the hospital for adult residents of this county.
Part b:
Because a random sample has been taken from the population of all county residents, 0.8 is a reasonable
estimate for the proportion of all county residents who are satisfied with the services offered by this
hospital.

17
AP STATISTICS
Question 5 (contd.)
Scoring
Part (a): BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS IS GIVEN IN THE PROBLEM,

HYPOTHESES AND CONDITIONS WILL BE COMBINED INTO ONE STEP (a1) AND SCORED
AS ESSENTIALLY CORRECT OR INCORRECT. Each of the OTHER 2 steps (a2 and a3) of the
hypothesis test is scored either as correct or incorrect.
Step a1: States a correct pair of hypotheses. Identifies a correct test (by name or by formula) and states
and verifies appropriate conditions.
Note: Conditions checked must refer to expected counts. Counts must be verified as sufficiently
large. A table of expected counts is sufficient to verify that the student has checked the counts.
Stating that 92.8 is the smallest expected count is sufficient to verify that the student has checked
counts.
The fact that the observed cell counts are from a random sample does not need to be repeated
here.
Step a2: Correct mechanics, including the value of the test statistic (2 = 4.117) and p-value (0.042)
OR
the test statistic (2 = 4.117) and rejection region (2 critical value = 3.84 when = 0.05).
Step a3: Stating a correct conclusion in the context of the problem linked to both the p-value (or
rejection region) and the stated hypotheses.
If an and a p-value are given, the linkage is implied. If no is given, the solution must be
explicit about the linkage by giving a correct interpretation of the p-value or explaining how the
conclusion follows from the p-value.
If the p-value in step a2 is incorrect but the conclusion is consistent with the computed p-value,
step a3 can be considered as correct.
A conclusion consistent with incorrectly stated hypotheses is scored essentially correct.
NOTE: This chi-squared test can also be done as a two-sample z test of the difference between two
proportions. The major steps of the hypothesis test are still scored as correct or incorrect. That is, the
student must state the hypotheses, identify the test by name or formula, check conditions, complete the
correct mechanics, and state the correct conclusion in the context of the problem.
H 0 : p1 p2 = 0
Ha : p1 p2 0
where p1 represents the proportion of males who are satisfied, and p2 represents the proportion of
females who are satisfied.

18
AP STATISTICS
Question 5 (contd.)
Conditions for the two-sample z hypothesis test of proportions

384 + 416
n1 p = 371.2 > 5 n1 (1- p ) = 92.8 > 5 where p = = 0 .8
464 + 536
n2 p = 428.8 > 5 n2 (1- p ) = 107.2 > 5
OR

n1 p1 = 384 > 5 n1 (1- p1 ) = 80 > 5 where p1 = 0.827586

n2 p 2 = 416 > 5 n2 (1- p 2 ) = 120 > 5 where p2 = 0.776119
Computer output illustrating the correct mechanics for the two-sample z test and confidence interval is
provided below.
Sample X N Sample p
1 384 464 0.827586
2 416 536 0.776119
Estimate for p1 p2 : 0.0514668

95% CI for p1 p2 : (0.00220611, 0.100727)
Test for p1 p2 = 0 (vs p1 p2 0 ): Z = 2.03 P-Value = 0.042
Standard deviation for p1 p2 = 1

(0.8)( 0.2 ) +
1 = 0.02536
464 536
This p-value of 0.042 is less than = 0.05 so we can reject the null hypothesis. We have sufficient
evidence that the proportion of males who are satisfied with the hospital services is different than the
proportion of females who are satisfied with the hospital services.
Part (b) is scored as essentially correct, partially correct, or incorrect.
Part (b) is scored as essentially correct if 0.8 is viewed as a reasonable estimate because the sample is
taken from the population of interest.
NOTE: If a student provides the correct response and then states that the estimate could be
improved by conditioning then the response should be scored essentially correct.

19
AP STATISTICS
Question 5 (contd.)
Part (b) is scored as partially correct

if the results of the hypothesis test in part (a) are used to make a statement about the applicability
of the estimate. That is, 0.8 is viewed as an unreasonable estimate because there is a significant
association between gender and satisfaction.
if the estimate is unreasonable because the number of men and women are not equal in the
sample.
Part (b) is scored as incorrect

if the student simply says yes or no, without any explanation.
if the students says yes, the sample size is large.
4 Complete Response
Part (b) essentially correct and all 3 steps of the hypothesis test are correct
Part (b) essentially correct and 2 steps of the hypothesis test correct
OR
Part (b) partially correct or incorrect and 3 steps of the hypothesis test correct
OR
Part (b) partially correct AND either the hypotheses or conditions are correct AND both
a2 and a3 are correct
Part (b) essentially correct and 1 step of the hypothesis test correct
OR
Part (b) partially correct or incorrect and 2 steps of the hypothesis test correct
OR
Part (b) partially correct AND either the hypotheses or conditions are correct AND either
a2 or a3 is correct
1 Minimal Response
Part (b) essentially correct

OR
Part (b) partially correct or incorrect and 1 step of the hypothesis test is correct
OR
Part (b) partially correct AND either the hypotheses or conditions are correct

20
AP STATISTICS
Question 6
Solution
Part (a):
Step 1: States and checks appropriate conditions.
We are told that the sample was randomly selected. Since the sample size is large
(e.g., n =50 > 30), the one sample t interval should be valid. Alternatively, we could assume that
the reduction in cholesterol level after one month is (at least approximately) normally distributed,
but we have no way to check this assumption with the information provided.
Step 2: Identifies the appropriate confidence interval by name or formula.
s
One sample t interval for , the mean reduction in cholesterol for the new drug or x tn*1 .
n
Step 3: Correct mechanics.
Degrees of freedom = n-1 = 49.

s 15
x tn*1 = 24 2.0096 = 24 4.2631 = (19.7369, 28.2631) .
n 50
Step 4: Interprets the confidence interval in context.
We are 95% confident that the mean reduction in cholesterol for the new drug in the population of
people with high cholesterol is between 19.74 and 28.26 mg/dl.
Part (b):
The decision based on a 95% confidence interval only corresponds to the two-sided test of significance
at the 5% level, not necessarily the one-sided test. The confidence interval in (a) is equivalent to testing
H0: = 20 against Ha: 20. In this test, the tail probability would be doubled, and this two-sided p-
value, .066, is larger than .05, failing to reject the null hypothesis. However, in testing H0: = 20
against Ha: > 20, the one-sided p-value of .033 is small enough to reject H0 at the 5% level.
Alternatively, if we had compared the p-value of .033 to an alpha level of .025, the conclusions would
match.

21
AP STATISTICS
Question 6 (contd.)
Part (c):
The critical value for the lower confidence bound is the 95th percentile (instead of the 97.5th percentile)
of the t distribution with 49 degrees of freedom.
t * = 1.676
and
15
L = 24 1.676 = 24 3.5553 = 20.4447
50
Part (d):
Yes, the decision would change. Since the lower bound L is more than 20, the agency would now be
convinced that is greater than 20 and the new drug is statistically significantly better than the current
drug.
Scoring
Part (a) is scored as
Essentially correct if all four steps (check conditions, identify procedure, calculate interval, interpret
interval) are correct. Each step is scored as correct or incorrect, no partial credit is given for the steps.
Ok if only state n is large or if assume population distribution is normal with some
justification/recognition that this is only an assumption.
Student can use either t interval or z interval but needs to give name of procedure (state t
or z somewhere) or provide critical value.
A correct interpretation of the confidence level does not count for step 4. An incorrect
interpretation of level prevents credit for correct interpretation of interval.
Partially correct if two or three steps are correct.
Incorrect if at most one step is correct.
Part (b) is scored as
Essentially correct if the student discussion includes:

1. the confidence interval is two-sided and the test is one-sided, and
2. a quantitative linkage between the procedures (e.g., doubling the p-value, halving the level of
significance, using 90% as the confidence level [with clear connection to the = .05
significance level]).

22
AP STATISTICS
Question 6 (contd.)
Partially correct if
Student states only that the confidence interval is two-sided and the test of significance is
one-sided.
Student has the right concept but discussion is very poor.
Incorrect if
Student solution is only a restatement of the conclusions of each procedure.
Student solution is only a restatement that the results differ.
Student solution states that a 90% confidence interval is shorter and would not include 20
(but gives no indication of how 90% relates to the level of significance of the test) or that
they might not differ if a different level of was used (with no value stated).
Student says confidence intervals and test are different procedures (e.g., vary in
specificity) and lead to different conclusions.
Student says one uses the t value and the other uses the z value.
Note: Students may refer to the duality between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests in their
solutions, but they must describe this duality in order to receive credit.
Part (c) is scored as
Essentially correct if
1. a reasonable one-sided value of t* is given ( 1.676 or 1.684), and
2. L is calculated correctly using the value of t* provided (20.445 or 20.428).
Partially correct if the student identifies an incorrect reasonable critical value (z*, two-sided t* but see
note below, or wrong df) and then uses this value to calculate L.
Incorrect if the student identifies a nonsensical critical value (e.g., uses the test statistic, the p-value, ,
t*/2, 20) and/or obtains a lower bound larger than the sample mean (unless it is from an incorrectly
substituted one-sided t* value).
Part (d) is scored as
Essentially correct if
1. the student correctly justifies whether or not the conclusion has changed, and
2. the student makes a correct conclusion from the one-sided confidence interval and supports
their conclusion (e.g., compares L to the value of 20, believes > L, is 20 in the interval).
Partially correct if student gives only component 2 or has component 1 with weak justification.
Incorrect if an answer (yes or no) is provided with no reasonable explanation.
NOTE: If the students work in part (c) is merely a reworking of the lower endpoint in (a) and they obtain the
same lower bound and comment that the calculation is the same, they will receive at most one point among parts
(a), (c) and (d). ACD Rule

23
AP STATISTICS
Question 6 (contd.)
Each Essentially Correct response counts as 1 point, each Partially Correct response counts as point.
4 Complete Response 4 points
3 Substantial Response 3 points
2 Developing Response 2 points
1 Minimal Response 1 point
IF A PAPER IS BETWEEN TWO SCORES (FOR EXAMPLE, 2 POINTS) USE A HOLISTIC APPROACH
TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO SCORE UP OR DOWN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESPONSE AND COMMUNICATION.

24

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AP Statistics

2004 Scoring Guidelines

For further information, visit www.collegeboard.com

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Each part is scored as essentially correct, partially correct, or incorrect.

Part (a) is partially correct if only one of the following occurs:

Part (a) is incorrect if either of the following occur:

INCORRECT BOXPLOTS USING SUMMARY STATISTICS AS DATA

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Part (b i) is partially correct if any of the following occur:

Part (b i) is scored as incorrect if any of the following occur:

Part (b ii) is partially correct if any of the following occur:

Part (b ii) is scored as incorrect if any of the following occur:

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

All three parts essentially correct

Two parts essentially correct and 1 part partially correct

2 parts essentially correct and no parts partially correct

One part essentially correct and either 0 or 1 part partially correct

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Block Volunteers Ages

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Each part is scored as essentially correct, partially correct, or incorrect.

Parts (a) and (b) are each scored as essentially correct if

Part (c) is incorrect if

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

All three parts essentially correct

Two parts essentially correct and 1 part partially correct

2 parts essentially correct and no parts partially correct

One part essentially correct and 1 part partially correct

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Part (a): Score as:

Essentially correct if the response indicates that

Partially correct if the response indicates that

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Part (b): Score as:

Part (c): Score as:

Essentially correct if the probability provided in Part (b) is interpreted correctly.

Incorrect if just a Yes or No is given without an explanation.

Part (d): Score as:

Incorrect if No is given without an explanation.

Note: Discussions about conditions for inference are irrelevant.

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

IF A PAPER IS BETWEEN TWO SCORES (FOR EXAMPLE, 2 POINTS) USE A HOLISTIC

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Let A be the event antibiotic A works.

The probability that a child will be cured with Plan I is:

The probability that a child will be cured with Plan II is:

E ( Cost I ) = $50 0.6 + $130 0.4

E ( Cost II ) = $80 0.9 + $130 0.1

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Each part is scored as essentially correct, partially correct, or incorrect.

P ( Cure I ) = 0.6 + (0.4 0.9) = 0.96

P ( Cure I ) = P ( A B ) = 0.6 + 0.9 - (0.6 0.9) = 0.96

P ( Cure I ) = 1 - P ( not A ) P ( not B ) = 1 - (0.4) (0.1) = 0.96

P ( Cure II ) = 0.9 + (0.1 0.6) = 0.96

P ( Cure II ) = P ( B A ) = 0.9 + 0.6 - (0.9 0.6) = 0.96

P ( Cure II ) = 1 - P ( not B ) P ( not A ) = 1 - (0.1) (0.4) = 0.96

Copyright 2004 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved.

Part (a) is partially correct if

one of the two probabilities is calculated correctly with justification,

both probabilities are correct with incomplete justifications.

E ( Cost I ) = $50 0.6 + $130 0.4 E ( Cost I ) = $50+0.4 $80

E ( Cost II ) = $80 0.9 + $130 0.1 E ( Cost II ) = $80+0.1 $50