22nd JULY- the HINDU

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/living-in-a-warmer-country/article8883505.ece
July 22, 2016

Living in a warmer country

SUJATHA BYRAVAN

Q: (MAIN QUESTION):

HOW IS INDIA COMMITTED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE?

AT COP-21 , WHAT HAS BEEN COMMITTED BY INDIA AND WHAT ARE
THE STEPS/MEASURE TAKEN TO ACHIEVE IT?

India needs to formulate adaptation strategies to global warming at the State level
and demonstrate if and how these could be meaningful for the country as a whole

Q: HOW ARE WORLD LEADERS COMMITTED TO REDUCE GLOBAL WARMING?

WHAT MEASURES ARE/NEED TO BE TAKEN?

Kicking off to a warm start, the first few months of 2016 were close to 1.5 Celsius higher than
average global temperatures for at least 10,000 years prior to the 19th century. At the Paris
Conference of Parties (COP-21) last December, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to well
below 2C while still making an effort to keep the average rise to below 1.5C. According to estimates
by Climate Central, a science and news organisation, long-term average global temperatures are
expected to cross the 1.5C threshold in about 10 to 15 years, much too soon for countries across the
world which are still struggling to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the
impacts of rising temperatures. Many scientists and analysts actually consider staying within a long-
term rise of 1.5C to be an impossible goal unless some far-fetched method of sucking carbon out of
the air or burying it forever becomes viable.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its fifth integrated review of the
science, impacts, mitigation and adaptation assessment in 2014, with the next such round of reports
expected in 2022. The emphasis of these reports, which use available peer-reviewed science, has for
the most part been on potential temperature rises higher than 1.5C. Therefore, at a meeting in
Nairobi in April this year, the IPCC decided to commission special reviews that would examine the
effect that 1.5C would have on land use, ecosystems, oceans and glaciers. In this bleak setting, what
should India begin to consider doing?

Q: WHAT ROLE DOES NAPCC PLAY TOWARDS INDIAS GLOBAL COMMITMENT TO

CONTROL GLOBAL WARMING?
In 2007, the Indian government established the Prime Ministers Council on Climate Change, out of
which emerged the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Each of the States then
developed State-level climate action plans, which are currently being implemented. The NAPCC also
rolled out a fair number of programmes and strategies under its eight missions. The State-level
studies and plans have also in effect alerted the States to begin the task of incorporating climate
change into their planning.

The NAPCC essentially announced to the world that India was willing to act on its global
responsibility to limit GHG emissions. This was despite the fact that the country has low per capita
emissions (less than 2 tonnes per capita, which is lower than the world average) and has historically
often taken the lead in calling for equity in international climate policy and the allocation of a fair
carbon budget.

Q: WHAT ARE INDIAS APPROACH /STRATEGY TO REDUCE EMISSIONS? DISCUSS THE

MEASURES TAKEN AT STATE LEVEL.

At COP-21, India proposed that it would reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP (GHG emissions
per unit of GDP) by about a third compared with its 2005 levels, and has committed itself to
depending on non-fossil fuel sources for 40 per cent of its generation capacity by 2030. Adaptation
was also mentioned in Indias Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) along with several details
in different sectors. The Paris Agreement calls for comprehensive reviews, regular global
stocktaking and ratcheting up of targets periodically.

Given these pressures and commitments that have been made, India now needs to re-imagine and
develop a new approach, or national strategy a set of policies that lay out its action plans for
reaching its targets, and not just for reducing emissions. With the close monitoring that is expected
of the announced NDC targets, there is a lot that India needs to be prepared with. The countrys
overall strategies would have to include a number of different aspects such as an integration of
mitigation, adaptation and inclusive low-carbon development, and considerations and clarity on
implementation, along with an understanding of which programmes would be undertaken by the
Central government, which ones by the States, and how these would all add up to fulfilling our
commitments.

Each State faces a distinctive set of challenges regarding the impact of warming, but also offers its
own set of opportunities for reducing emissions depending on its natural resources. For example,
coastal States need to take action to protect their shores from sea level rise, districts that are drier
need to prepare for variable monsoon precipitation, Himalayan regions have their own unique
challenges, and selected parts of peninsular India and offshore areas offer great opportunities for
harnessing wind power. These various aspects need to be considered in fulfilling the Paris Agreement
now, but also for developing clear and sustainable goals for the future.

Although ratification of the Paris Agreement is already being considered, the deliverables on
adaptation are far from clear. In fact, there are no agreed-upon adaptation goals at the global level. It
would therefore be interesting and useful for India to formulate adaptation strategies at State levels
and demonstrate if and how these could be meaningful for the country as a whole.
Q: INDIA IS A DEVELOPING ECONOMY, AND ITS COMMITMENT TO REDUCE
EMISSIONS WILL COMPROMISE ITS EFFORTS TOWARDS BECOMING A
DEVELOPED ONE. HOW WILL INDIA MANAGE THIS SITUATION?

We know that India will experience severe effects of global warming. The recent floods in
Jammu and Kashmir and Tamil Nadu, and severe drought in many districts, are probably
just an indication of the harsh implications for the future.
Decisions on development, for example large-scale infrastructure investments, have
implications for GHG emissions now and in the future. Infrastructure and institutional
mechanisms that have implications for the long term are referred to as lock-ins. This
implies that countries need to think in terms of targets well beyond 2030 for emissions and
adaptation. Thus, fundamental decisions on growth and development need to go well
beyond the goals for a high GDP and consider surviving extreme events, living in a warmer
world, and inclusivity, especially with hundreds of millions who are poor, which is
fundamental to countries like India. The linkages among development trajectories, GHG
emissions reduction targets and adaptation strategies perhaps need to be made more
explicit by researchers and scientists, so that decision makers can understand the medium-
and long-term implications of virtually all their choices.
With the challenges that India faces and the need to provide human services in a
sustainable manner to its vast underserved population, the country requires social and
economic transformation at a scale that has not been attempted before. An
acknowledgement that these kinds of changes need to happen would be a good beginning
followed by perhaps a wide and open national conversation on what such transformational
processes would look like and what the policies and associated social changes would be.

Sujatha Byravan is Principal Research Scientist at the Center for Study of Science Technology and
Policy, Bengaluru.

Each State faces a distinctive set of challenges regarding the impacts of warming,
but also offers its own opportunities Kfor reducing emissions
 ARTICLE:

Living in a warmer country

SUJATHA BYRAVAN

India needs to formulate adaptation strategies to global warming at the State level and
demonstrate if and how these could be meaningful for the country as a whole

Kicking off to a warm start, the first few months of 2016 were close to 1.5 Celsius higher than average global
temperatures for at least 10,000 years prior to the 19th century. At the Paris Conference of Parties (COP-21)
last December, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to well below 2C while still making an effort to
keep the average rise to below 1.5C. According to estimates by Climate Central, a science and news
organisation, long-term average global temperatures are expected to cross the 1.5C threshold in about 10 to 15
years, much too soon for countries across the world which are still struggling to reduce their greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions and adapt to the impacts of rising temperatures. Many scientists and analysts actually
consider staying within a long-term rise of 1.5C to be an impossible goal unless some far-fetched method of
sucking carbon out of the air or burying it forever becomes viable.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its fifth integrated review of the science,
impacts, mitigation and adaptation assessment in 2014, with the next such round of reports expected in 2022.
The emphasis of these reports, which use available peer-reviewed science, has for the most part been on
potential temperature rises higher than 1.5C. Therefore, at a meeting in Nairobi in April this year, the IPCC
decided to commission special reviews that would examine the effect that 1.5C would have on land use,
ecosystems, oceans and glaciers. In this bleak setting, what should India begin to consider doing?

Options for India

In 2007, the Indian government established the Prime Ministers Council on Climate Change, out of which
emerged the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Each of the States then developed State-level
climate action plans, which are currently being implemented. The NAPCC also rolled out a fair number of
programmes and strategies under its eight missions. The State-level studies and plans have also in effect alerted
the States to begin the task of incorporating climate change into their planning.

The NAPCC essentially announced to the world that India was willing to act on its global responsibility to limit
GHG emissions. This was despite the fact that the country has low per capita emissions (less than 2 tonnes per
capita, which is lower than the world average) and has historically often taken the lead in calling for equity in
international climate policy and the allocation of a fair carbon budget.

At COP-21, India proposed that it would reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP (GHG emissions per unit of
GDP) by about a third compared with its 2005 levels, and has committed itself to depending on non-fossil fuel
sources for 40 per cent of its generation capacity by 2030. Adaptation was also mentioned in Indias Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDC) along with several details in different sectors. The Paris Agreement calls for
comprehensive reviews, regular global stocktaking and ratcheting up of targets periodically.

Given these pressures and commitments that have been made, India now needs to reimagine and develop a new
approach, or national strategy a set of policies that lay out its action plans for reaching its targets, and not
just for reducing emissions. With the close monitoring that is expected of the announced NDC targets, there is a
lot that India needs to be prepared with. The countrys overall strategies would have to include a number of
different aspects such as an integration of mitigation, adaptation and inclusive low-carbon development, and
considerations and clarity on implementation, along with an understanding of which programmes would be
undertaken by the Central government, which ones by the States, and how these would all add up to fulfilling
our commitments.

Each State faces a distinctive set of challenges regarding the impact of warming, but also offers its own set of
opportunities for reducing emissions depending on its natural resources. For example, coastal States need to
take action to protect their shores from sea level rise, districts that are drier need to prepare for variable
monsoon precipitation, Himalayan regions have their own unique challenges, and selected parts of peninsular
India and offshore areas offer great opportunities for harnessing wind power. These various aspects need to be
considered in fulfilling the Paris Agreement now, but also for developing clear and sustainable goals for the
future.

Although ratification of the Paris Agreement is already being considered, the deliverables on adaptation are far
from clear. In fact, there are no agreed-upon adaptation goals at the global level. It would therefore be
interesting and useful for India to formulate adaptation strategies at State levels and demonstrate if and how
these could be meaningful for the country as a whole.

Response to the effects of warming

We know that India will experience severe effects of global warming. The recent floods in Jammu and Kashmir
and Tamil Nadu, and severe drought in many districts, are probably just an indication of the harsh implications
for the future.

Decisions on development, for example large-scale infrastructure investments, have implications for GHG
emissions now and in the future. Infrastructure and institutional mechanisms that have implications for the
long term are referred to as lock-ins. This implies that countries need to think in terms of targets well beyond
2030 for emissions and adaptation. Thus, fundamental decisions on growth and development need to go well
beyond the goals for a high GDP and consider surviving extreme events, living in a warmer world, and
inclusivity, especially with hundreds of millions who are poor, which is fundamental to countries like India. The
linkages among development trajectories, GHG emissions reduction targets and adaptation strategies perhaps
need to be made more explicit by researchers and scientists, so that decision makers can understand the
medium- and long-term implications of virtually all their choices.

With the challenges that India faces and the need to provide human services in a sustainable manner to its vast
underserved population, the country requires social and economic transformation at a scale that has not been
attempted before. An acknowledgement that these kinds of changes need to happen would be a good beginning
followed by perhaps a wide and open national conversation on what such transformational processes would
look like and what the policies and associated social changes would be.

Sujatha Byravan is Principal Research Scientist at the Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy,
Bengaluru.

Each State faces a distinctive set of challenges regarding the impacts of warming, but also
offers its own opportunities

for reducing emissions