1. (9 points) A discrete random variable takes on values 0, 1, 2, and 3, and has a uniform probability 3.a.

3.a. Of 1000 electrical relays produced at a factory, 5 are defective.

distribution. i. (6 points) If a customer purchases 70 of these relays, what is the probability that less than 3 are defective?
a. Use your answer to part b. to calculate P(1 X 3). (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
b. Suppose random variable Y = 2X 1. Construct a probability distribution table for Y ii. (2 points) What is the mean? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
iii. (2 points) What is the variance? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
1.a. (1 point) P(1 X 3) = F(3) F(0) = 1 = 3.a. Of 1000 electrical relays produced at a factory, 5 are defective.
1.b. (2 points) X 0 1 2 3 i. (6 points) If a customer purchases 70 of these relays, what is the probability that less than 3 are defective?
Y 1 1 3 5 (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
P(Y) since n = 70 > 5% of 1000: hypergeometric probability
( )( ) ( )( ) ( )( )
5 995
+ 15 995 + 52 995
3. (5 points) From past experience, a manufacturing plant knows that 5 out of every 1000 electrical relays produced at the P( X < 3) = P( X 2) = P(X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) =
0 70 69 68

plant are defective. A quality control technician tests electrical components until he finds four that work. What is the ( )
1000
70
probability that there will be exactly 2 non-working components before finding the fourth one that works? (Set up the ii. (2 points) What is the mean? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
calculation; do not compute.)
M 5
3. (5 points) 5 defective means 995 working out of 1000 relays E ( X ) = np = n = 70
negative binomial probability nb( x; r, p ) = nb(2; 4, 0.995) N 1000
iii. (2 points) What is the variance? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
2 + 4 1
nb(2; 4, 0.995) = 0.995 4 0.005 4( )( ) V (X ) =
N n M M 1000 70 5
n 1 = 70 1
5 930
or 70 (0.005)(0.995)
4 1 N 1 N N 1000 1 1000 1000 999
4. (5 points) Assume A and B are independent events with P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.3. Let C be the event that neither A 6. (5 points) A coin is weighted so that there is a probability of 0.6 that it will come up Y, and a probability of
nor B occurs, and let D be the event that exactly one of A or B occurs. 0.4 that it will come up N. Leonard tosses this coin 15 times. What is the probability that Leonard rolled at
a. Find P(C). (Do the calculations to get to an exact value numeric answer.)
most 4 Ns? (Compute to a numeric answer.)
b. Find P(D). (Do the calculations to get to an exact value numeric answer.)
c. Find P(A | D). (Do the calculations to get to an exact value numeric answer.) 6. (5 points) A coin is weighted so that there is a probability of 0.6 that it will come up Y, and a probability of
d. Are events C and D independent? You must justify your answer. 0.4 that it will come up N. Leonard tosses this coin 15 times. What is the probability that Leonard rolled at
4. (5 points) Answers rely on the test for independence: E and F are independent iff P(E F ) = P(E ) P(F ) . most 4 Ns? (Compute to a numeric answer.)
Note also that P( A) = 1 P( A) = 0.8 and P(B ) = 1 P(B ) = 0.7 . Short method, from the cumulative binomial probability table - P (N 4) = B(4; 15, 0.4) = 0.217
alternate long method:
4.a. C = A B P(C ) = P( A) P(B ) = 0.8 0.7 = 0.56
15 15 15 15 15
4.b. D = ( A B ) ( A B ) P(D ) = P( A) P(B ) + P( A) P(B ) = 0.2 0.7 + 0.8 0.3 = 0.38 ( )( ) ( )( ) ( )( ) ( )(
P(N 4) = 0.4 0 0.615 + 0.41 0.614 + 0.4 2 0.613 + 0.4 3 0.612 + 0.4 4 0.611) ( )( )
P( A D ) P( A B ) 0.2 0.7 0.14 7 0 1 2 3 4
4.c. P( A | D ) = = = = = 0.3684 7. (5 points) A coin is weighted so that there is a probability of 0.6 that it will come up Y, and a probability of
P (D ) P (D ) 0.38 0.38 19
0.4 that it will come up N. Leonard tosses this coin 50 times. What is the probability that Leonard rolled at
4.d. P(C D ) = 0 P(C ) P(D ) = 0.56 0.38 ; events C and D are not independent least 48 Ys? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
7. (3 points) Two couples Jack and Jill and Dick and Jane sit in four adjacent seats in a theater. What is the probability 7. (5 points) A coin is weighted so that there is a probability of 0.6 that it will come up Y, and a probability of
that either Jack sits beside Jill or Dick sits beside Jane? 0.4 that it will come up N. Leonard tosses this coin 50 times. What is the probability that Leonard rolled at
least 48 Ys? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
7. (3 points) There are four adjacent seats, with the number of ways to fill them with four people = 4! = 24. 50 50 50
(2 combinations put Jack/Jill in the first two seats) times (2 combinations put Dick/Jane in the last two seats) + ( )( ) ( )( ) ( )(
P(Y 48) = 0.4 2 0.6 48 + 0.41 0.6 49 + 0.4 0 0.6 50 )
(2 combinations put Jack/Jill in the 1st & 4th seats) times (2 combinations put Dick/Jane in the middle two seats) 48 49 50
+ (2 combinations put Jack/Jill in the middle two seats) times (2 combinations put Dick/Jane in the 1st & 4th 50 50 50
seats) + (2 combinations put Jack/Jill in the last two seats) times (2 combinations put Dick/Jane in the first two
( )( ) ( )( )
or P(Y 48) = P(N 2) = 0.4 0.6 + 0.41 0.6 49 + 0.4 2 0.6 48
0 50
( )( )
0 1 2
seats) = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16 ways to seat at least one of the couples together
16 2
P= =
24 3
2.b. (5 points) Of 100 electrical relays produced at a factory, 3 are defective. If a customer purchases 7 of these
relays, what is the probability that less than 3 are defective? (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
2.b. (5 points) since n = 7 > 5% of 100: hypergeometric probability 3 97 3 97 3 97
0 7 + 1 6 + 2 5
P( X < 3) = P( X 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) =
100
7

3.a. (5 points) Suppose X and Y are independent random variables, each having a Poisson distribution with
means 2 and 3, respectively. Find P(X + Y 1). (Set up the calculation; do not compute.)
3.a. (5 points) A Poisson distribution takes on discrete values 0, 1, 2,
P ( X + Y 1) = P( X = 0 Y = 0 ) + P( X = 1 Y = 0 ) + P( X = 0 Y = 1)
2 0 e 2 30 e 3 21 e 2 30 e 3 2 0 e 2 31 e 3
= + +
0! 0! 1! 0! 0! 1!

4.(12 points) A random variable X has probability density function f(x)
ke kx 0 x<
a. Prove that the mean = 1k . = .
0 otherwise
b. Prove that the median 1 ln(2) .
4.a. (6 points) =


( )
x ke kx dx = lim
b 0

b
kxe kx dx ; dv = e kx dx, v = k1 e kx , u = kx, du = k dx ;

kxe
kx
( ) ( )
dx = kx 1k e kx k k1 e kx dx = xe kx k1 e kx

lim xe
b
[ kx
1
k
]
0 b
[ ][
e kx = lim be kb k1 e kb 0 e k (0 ) 1k e k (0 ) = 1k
b
() ]
~ ~ ~
4.b. (6 points) 0.5 =


ke kx dx =
0 [ ~
]
ke kx dx = e kx = e k + 1 = 0.5
0
1 1
e k~
=
2
k~ = ln 2 1 ( ) k~ = ln (2 ) ~ = ln (2 )
k
Binomial Distribution: 1. Consists of n trials where n is fixed in advanced. 2. Each trial is S or F.
3. Trials are Independent. 4.P(S) is constant. b(x;n,p)=nCxp^(x)(1-p)^(n-x). E(X)=np V(X)=npq
Hypergeometric Distribution: 1. Population of N. 2. Ether S or F and there are M sucesses. 3.
Sample of n without replacement. h(x;n,M,N)=(MCx*(N-M)C(n-x))/NCn. E(X)=n(M/N) V(X)=
(N-n)/(N-1)*n*M/N*(1-M/N) or let M/N=p.
Negative Binomial: 1.sequences of independent trials. 2. Each trial is 2 or F. 3. P(S) is constant.
4. Continues until r Ss. nb(x;r,p)=(x+r-1)C(r-1)*(p^r)*(q^x) x= number of failures before r.
E(X)= r(1-p)/p V(X)= r(1-p)/p^2
Poisson Distribution: p(x;mu) = (e^(-mu)*mu^x)/x! E(X)=mu=V(X)

3. (8 points) An insurance company knows that major flooding occurs in a town on average every five years, and there
is reason to believe that the probability is exponentially distributed.
3.a. What is the expected time for the next three floods to occur?
3.b. What is the probability that three major floods will occur within the next 10 to 30 years?

3. (8 points) An insurance company knows that major flooding occurs in a town on average every three years,
and there is reason to believe that the probability is exponentially distributed.
3.a. What is the expected time for the next two floods to occur?
(Erlang distribution) = 3, = 5 = = (3)(5) = 15
3.b. What is the probability that two major floods will occur within the next 10 to 30 years?
X X 10 30
standardize Y = = P (10 X 30 ) = P Y = F (6; 3) F (2; 3) = 0.938 0.323 = 0.615
5 5 5
(values come from Table A-4 The Incomplete Gamma Function.)