10/30/2016 Germany Economy - GDP, Ination, CPI and Interest Rate

EconomicForecastsfromtheWorld'sLeadingEconomists

GermanyEconomicOutlook
October25,2016

GermanylikelyexpandedsteadilyinQ3andattheoutsetofQ4,followingQ2sslowdownto0.4%quarterlygrowth.Industrialproductionandexports
reboundedinAugust,businesssentimentstrengthenedinSeptemberandOctobersPMIrose.UpbeatconsumersentimentfromJulythroughOctober
bodeswellforprivateconsumption.InOctober,theCabinetapprovedmodesttaxbreaksworthmorethanEUR2.0billionin2017andEUR6.3billionper
yearstartingin2018.Measuresincludeawiderrangeofpersonalexemptionsonincometax,asmallincreaseinchildbenefitsandabetteradjustmentof
taxratestoinflation.Meanwhile,investorsconfidencehasbeenshakenbyemergingconcernsaboutDeutscheBanksfinancialhealth,followingnews
thatthelendercouldbefinedaroundUSD14billionbytheU.S.DepartmentofJustice.Theasyetundeterminedexactvalueofthefinewilldeterminethe
bankspotentialcapitalshortfallandhowithandlesthematter.

GermanyEconomyData
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Population(million) 80.3 80.5 80.8 81.1 81.4

GDPpercapita(EUR) 33,599 34,228 34,980 36,003 37,156

GDP(EURbn) 2,699 2,756 2,825 2,920 3,023

EconomicGrowth(GDP,annualvariationin%) 3.7 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.7

DomesticDemand(annualvariationin%) 2.9 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.6

Consumption(annualvariationin%) 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.9

Investment(annualvariationin%) 7.2 0.4 1.3 3.5 2.2

Exports(G&S,annualvariationin%) 8.3 2.7 1.6 4.1 5.4

Imports(G&S,annualvariationin%) 7.0 0.4 3.1 3.7 5.8

IndustrialProduction(annualvariationin%) 7.3 0.4 0.1 1.5 0.5

RetailSales(annualvariationin%) 1.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 3.0

UnemploymentRate 7.1 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.4

FiscalBalance(%ofGDP) 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6

PublicDebt(%ofGDP) 78.3 79.6 77.2 74.7 71.2

InflationRate(CPI,annualvariationin%,eop) 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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10/30/2016 Germany Economy - GDP, Ination, CPI and Interest Rate
Value 2011 2012
Change 2013 2014
Date 2015

InflationRate(CPI,annualvariationin%) 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.2

Inflation(PPI,annualvariationin%) 3.5 1.4 0.5 1.7 2.3

PolicyInterestRate(%) 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05

StockMarket(annualvariationin%) 14.7 29.1 25.5 2.7 9.6

ExchangeRate(vsUSD) 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.09

ExchangeRate(vsUSD,aop) 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11

CurrentAccount(%ofGDP) 6.0 7.1 6.8 7.3 8.4

CurrentAccountBalance(EURbn) 165 194 190 213 257

TradeBalance(EURbillion) 156 194 200 215 246

SampleReport
5yearsofGermanyeconomicforecastsformorethan30economicindicators.

SampleReport

GetasamplereportshowingallthedataandanalysiscoveredinourRegional,CountryandCommoditiesreports.

GermanyFacts
Value Change Date

BondYield 0.01 128.14% Oct26

ExchangeRate 1.09 0.53% Oct26

StockMarket 10,710 0.44% Oct26

GermanyEconomicGrowth
October25,2016

Healthydomesticdemandwilldriveanotherrobustexpansionthisyear.Householdspendingisbeingfueledbysubduedinflation,recordlow
unemploymentandtheECBsloosemonetarypolicy.Hightaxrevenuesandlowinterestrateswillenablethegovernmenttoliftspendingwhileachieving
anotherfiscalsurplus.Bycontrast,theexternalsectorwilllikelybeaweakspotthisyearamidexternalheadwinds.OurpanelexpectsGDPtogrow1.8%
thisyear,whichisup0.1percentagepointsfromlastmonthsforecast.For2017,panelistsforecasta1.4%expansion.

GermanyEconomicNews
Germany:FlashPMIstrengthensinOctoberandpointstosolidprivatesector
activity
October24,2016

TheMarkitFlashCompositePurchasingManagersIndex(PMI)rosefrom52.8inSeptemberto55.1inOctober.

Germany:TradesurpluswidensinAugustonreboundingexports
October10,2016

TheseasonallyandcalendaradjustedtradesurplusincreasedfromEUR19.4billioninJulytoEUR22.2billioninAugust,drivenupbyrecovering
exports.
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10/30/2016 Germany Economy - GDP, Ination, CPI and Interest Rate
exports.

Germany:IndustrialproductionrecoversinAugust
October7,2016

InAugust,industrialproductionrose2.5%fromthepreviousmonthinseasonallyadjustedterms,incontrasttoJulyslarge1.6%drop,whichhadbeen
thelowestreadinginnearlytwoyears.

Germany:InflationrisesinSeptember
September29,2016

ConsumerpricesinSeptemberrose0.1%inamonthonmonthcomparison,accordingtopreliminarydatareleasedbytheFederalStatisticsOffice
(Destatis)on29September.

Germany:GermanconsumerconfidencemoderatesslightlyheadingintoOctober
September28,2016

HeadingintoOctober,themoodamongGermanconsumersweakenedslightlybutstillstayedatahighlevel.

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