ON THE AGGREGATE EFFECTS 2007

OF IMMIGRATION IN SPAIN

Mario Izquierdo, Juan F. Jimeno

and Juan A. Rojas

Documentos de Trabajo
N.º 0714
ON THE AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION IN SPAIN
ON THE AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION IN SPAIN

Mario Izquierdo
BANCO DE ESPAÑA

Juan F. Jimeno
BANCO DE ESPAÑA, CEPR AND IZA

Juan A. Rojas
BANCO DE ESPAÑA

Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 0714

2007
The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers
have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute
to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international
environment.

The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and,
therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the INTERNET at the
following website: http://www.bde.es.

Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is
acknowledged.

© BANCO DE ESPAÑA, Madrid, 2007

ISSN: 0213-2710 (print)

ISSN: 1579-8666 (on line)
Depósito legal: M.28993-2007
Unidad de Publicaciones, Banco de España
Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model designed to compute the
aggregate impact of immigration, accounting for relevant supply and demand effects. We
calibrate the model to the Spanish economy, allowing for enough heterogeneity in the
demographic characteristics of immigrant and native workers. We consider an initial steady
state characterized by the age structure of the Spanish population in 1995 and study the
effects of several immigration scenarios on several macroeconomic variables (GDP,
employment, productivity, etc.).

Keywords: Immigration, general equilbrium models.

JEL Codes: E10, F22.

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1 Examples of the first category are, for instance, Card (2001), Borjas (1999), and Ottaviano

and Peri (2006). For the second category, see Storelestten (2000)
2 Some previous studies on several economic effects of inward migration flows to Spain are

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 9 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

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BANCO DE ESPAÑA 21 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 =;IF9 

Age distribution of immigration flows Occupation Distribution

0.18 0.35
natives
0.16 immigrants
0.3

0.14
0.25
0.12

0.1 0.2

0.08 0.15

0.06
0.1
0.04

0.05
0.02

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1 2 3 4

Age distribution of productivity natives Age profile of employment rates

2.5 0.7
natives
NMQ
immigrants
NMNQ 0.6
2 MQ
MNQ
0.5

1.5
0.4

0.3
1

0.2

0.5
0.1

0 0
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 22 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

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J9GHA9BH F5H9 =G GI6GH5BH=5@@M <=;<9F =B H<9 9LD9F=A9BH K=H< =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG

,<9 F95GCB =G H<5H K=H< =AA=;F5H=CB H<9 @CK9F 75D=H5@ @56CF F5H=C =B7F95G9G H<9

A5F;=B5@ DFC8I7H=J=HM C: 75D=H5@ 5B8 =B7F95G9G H<9 DFCOH56=@=HM C: =BJ9GHA9BH

897=G=CBG G 5 6M DFC8I7H C: H<9G9 HF9B8G =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG 89@=J9F 5 ACF9

DFCBCIB798 7IFF9BH 577CIBH 89O7=H 5G D9F79BH5;9 C: ( !B +79B5F=C &C

=AA=;F5H=CB H<9 5;=B; C: H<9 656M 6CCA ;9B9F5H=CB =B7F95G9G H<9 BIA69F C:

H<9 F9H=F99G CJ9F H<9 HCH5@ DCDI@5H=CB =B8I7=B; 5B =B7F95G9 =B H<9 GC7=5@ G97IF=HM

H5L F5H9 =B CF89F HC 65@5B79 H<9 ;CJ9FBA9BH 6I8;9H !B 588=H=CB H<9F9 =G GCA9

F98I7H=CB =B H<9 D9F79BH5;9 C: ( GD9BH CB D9BG=CBG 5B8 H<9 GC7=5@ G97IF=HM

89O7=H =B H<9 G79B5F=C K=H< =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG K<=7< B9J9FH<9@9GG 8C9G BCH

=AD989 H<5H 6CH< D9BG=CB 9LD9B8=HIF9G 5B8 H<9 +C7=5@ +97IF=HM 89O7=H GIF;9G

 /5;9G ( D9F 9AD@CM99 5B8 ( D9F 75D=H5 5F9 89HF9B898

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 27 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 HC AI7< <=;<9F @9J9@G H<5H H<9 7IFF9BH CB9G CBG9EI9BH@M H<9 =BPCK C: =AA=

;F5BHG 5@@9J=5H9G HC 5 A=BCF 9LH9BH H<9 9U97HG C: H<9 5;=B; C: H<9 656M6CCA

;9B9F5H=CB

G :CF H<9 EI5BH=H5H=J9 9U97HG G99 7C@IABG 34 5B8 3 4 C: ,56@9  H<9G9

5F9 GD97=5@@M BCH=7956@9 =B H<9 75G9 C: 9AD@CMA9BH D9F 75D=H5 56CIH   5B8

 DD <=;<9F 5H    5B8  =B +79B5F=C  ,<=G =G 8I9 HC HKC 9U97HG

= H<9 7CBH=BICIG =AA=;F5BH PCKG C: H<9 CF89F C: H<CG9 7CBG=89F98 =B +79B5F=C

 =AD@M G=;B=O75BH@M @9GG DCDI@5H=CB 5;9=B; H<5B IB89F BC A=;F5H=CB 5B8 ==

H<9 K9=;<H C: =AA=;F5BHG K<C <5J9 <=;<9F 9AD@CMA9BH F5H9G =B H<9 @56CF :CF79

=B7F95G9G CF 5 G=A=@5F 7CADCG=H=CB 9U97H ( D9F 9AD@CM99 =G G=;B=O75BH@M

@CK9F 8I9 HC =AA=;F5H=CB 5B8 5@GC H<9 =AD57H 577IAI@5H9G CJ9F H=A9 G :CF

( D9F 75D=H5 H<9 9U97H C: =AA=;F5H=CB 5G 5@F958M 7CAA9BH98 =G A=BCF 6IH

=B7F95G9G CJ9F H=A9    5B8  <=;<9F =B +79B5F=C  =B   

5B8  F9GD97H=J9@M =B5@@M H<9 =AD57H C: =AA=;F5H=CB CB H<9 =BJ9GHA9BH

F5H9 =G G=;B=O75BH 56CIH  DD <=;<9F 5H H<9 H<F99 <CF=NCBG DF9G9BH98 =B ,56@9

8=A=B=G<=B; CJ9F H=A9 8I9 HC H<9 9L=GH9B79 C: =BJ9GHA9BH 58>IGHA9BH 7CGHG

/9 75B 9J5@I5H9 H<9 G<CFHFIB D9F:CFA5B79 C: H<9 AC89@ 6M 7CAD5F=B; H<9

F9GI@HG :CF  K=H< H<9 C6G9FJ98 85H5 'J9F5@@ H<9 AC89@ F9D@=75H9G EI=H9 K9@@

H<9 9JC@IH=CB C: ( D9F 75D=H5 K<CG9 5J9F5;9 5BBI5@ F5H9 C: ;FCKH< CJ9F H<9

  699B     =B H<9 AC89@ IB89F H<9 65G9@=B9 34 8A=HH98@M

CJ9F H<=G D9F=C8 H<9 AC89@ DFC8I79G 5 @CK9F F5H9 C: ;FCKH< C: 9AD@CMA9BH D9F

75D=H5  5BBI5@ 5B8 5 <=;<9F F5H9 C: ;FCKH< C: @56CIF DFC8I7H=J=HM 

5BBI5@ H<5B C6G9FJ98  5B8  F9GD97H=J9@M BCH<9F :FCBH K<9F9

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 28 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 H<9 AC89@ 7CA9G J9FM 7@CG9 HC F9D@=75H9 H<9 C6G9FJ98 85H5 CJ9F H<=G D9F=C8 =G

F9;5F8=B; H<9 9JC@IH=CB C: =BJ9GHA9BH H<9 =BJ9GHA9BH F5H9 5J9F5;98    C:

( CJ9F H<9   K<=@9 H<9 AC89@ M=9@8G  

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 29 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 #  *,#+*

+79B5F=C  +79B5F=C +79B5F=C  +79B5F=C  +79B5F=C 

34 3 4 34 34 34

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BANCO DE ESPAÑA 30 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 =;IF9 5G<98 @=B9G +79B5F=C  +C@=8 @=B9G +79B5F=C 

detrended wages p.c. Effective labor supply

2

1.1
1.5
1

0.9
1
0.8

0.7 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

p.c. capital stock detrended per capita GDP

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Employment per capita GDP over Employment

0.4

0.3 0.5

0.2 0.4

0.1 0.3
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

I/GDP S/GDP
0.4 0.4

0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1

0.1 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Bcc/GDP dependency ratio

0.2 0.8

0.1 0.6

0
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Pensions over GDP Pension Defic it over GDP

0.3 0.2
0.15
0.2 0.1
0.05
0.1 0
-0.05
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 31 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

    &$!% 1+* & !$$!)+!&% % & +  ## !%

+  !%+)*+ )+

&CK K9 7CAD5F9 +79B5F=C  HC +79B5F=C  BC =AA=;F5H=CB 5B8 5 7CBGH5BH

=BH9F9GH F5H9 ,<=G 7CAD5F=GCB HC;9H<9F K=H< H<9 F9GI@HG =B H<9 DF9J=CIG G97H=CB

5@@CKG IG HC 8F5K GCA9 7CB7@IG=CBG 56CIH H<9 =BH9F57H=CB 69HK99B H<9 9U97HG C:

=AA=;F5H=CB 5B8 H<9 :5@@ C: H<9 =BH9F9GH F5H9 ,<9 A5=B EI5@=H5H=J9 8=U9F9B79

=G  H<5H IB89F 5 7CBGH5BH =BH9F9GH F5H9 H<9F9 =G 5 GA5@@9F =B7F95G9 =B H<9 GHC7?

C: 75D=H5@ 8I9 HC H<9 <=;<9F 7CGH 5GGC7=5H98 K=H< =BJ9GHA9BH 9B79 H<9F9 =G

5 @CK9F =B7F95G9 =B ( D9F 75D=H5 ,<9 =B7F95G9 =B H<9 =BJ9GHA9BH F5H9 5B8

H<9 :5@@ =B H<9 G5J=B; F5H9 CJ9F H<9 =B=H=5@ D9F=C8G C: H<9 HF5BG=H=CB 5GGC7=5H98

HC H<9 :5@@ =B H<9 =BH9F9GH F5H9 8=G5DD95F =;IF9  5B8 7CBG9EI9BH@M H<9

7IFF9BH 577CIBH 65@5B79 8=GD@5MG 5 GIFD@IG =B H<9 =B=H=5@ D9F=C8G C: H<9 HF5BG=H=CB

!B H9FAG C: H<9 9JC@IH=CB C: GC7=5@ G97IF=HM OB5B79G H<9F9 :5@@ C: H<9 =BH9F9GH

F5H9 =G BCH J9FM F9@9J5BH 5G H<9 ACGH =ADCFH5BH :57HCF 89H9FA=B=B; D9BG=CB

9LD9B8=HIF9G 5B8 H<9 +C7=5@ +97IF=HM 89O7=H =G H<9 89D9B89B7M F5H=C K<=7< 8C

BCH 7<5B;9 =B H<9 H<F99 +79B5F=CG 7CBG=89F98 GC :5F

$CC?=B; 5H 7C@IABG 3 4 5B8 34 C: ,56@9  K9 75B ;5I;9 <CK EI5BH=H5H=J9@M

=ADCFH5BH H<9 9U97H C: H<9 DCGHI@5H98 J5F=5H=CBG C: H<9 =BH9F9GH F5H9 7CI@8 69

,<9 F98I7H=CB C:   DD C: H<9 F95@ =BH9F9GH F5H9 CJ9F H<9   9A698898

=B +79B5F=C 8C9G BCH 5U97H J9FM AI7< HC 9=H<9F 9AD@CMA9BH DFC8I7H=J=HM CF

( D9F 75D=H5 CJ9F H<9 G<CFHFIB CK9J9F 5G 577IAI@5H=CB C: 75D=H5@ =G @5F;9F

H<5B IB89F +79B5F=C  5H @CB;9F <CF=NCBG @56CF DFC8I7H=J=HM 5B8 7CBG9EI9BH@M

( D9F 75D=H5 F=G9

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 32 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 =;IF9  5G<98 @=B9G +79B5F=C  +C@=8 @=B9G +79B5F=C 

detrended wages p.c. Effective labor supply

2

1.1
1.5
1

0.9
1
0.8
0.7 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

p.c. capital stock detrended per capita GDP

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Employment per capita GDP over Employment

0.4

0.3 0.5

0.2 0.4

0.1 0.3
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

I/GDP S/GDP
0.4 0.4

0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1

0.1 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Bcc/GDP dependency ratio

0.2 0.8

0.1 0.6

0
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Pensions over GDP Pension Deficit over GDP

0.3 0.2
0.15
0.2 0.1
0.05
0.1 0
-0.05
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 33 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

    1+* & $&) ,%*"!## !$$!)+!&%

!B H<=G 75G9 K9 7CAD5F9 H<9 65G9@=B9 G79B5F=C K<=7< =G 7CBGHFI7H98 CB H<9

C6G9FJ98 5B8 DF98=7H98 PCKG 6M H<9 +D5B=G< &5H=CB5@ +H5H=GH=7G 'T79 K=H< 5B

5@H9FB5H=J9 G79B5F=C =B K<=7< =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG 5F9 D9FA5B9BH@M <=;<9F 5H H<9

@9J9@ C:  =AA=;F5BHG D9F M95F *9;5F8=B; H<9 G?=@@ 8=GHF=6IH=CB C: H<9G9

PCKG K9 ?99D H<5H C6G9FJ98 IB89F H<9 65G9@=B9 G79B5F=C = 9 H<9 CB9 C6G9FJ98

=B H<9 +D5B=G< 97CBCAM =B H<9 F979BH D9F=C8 /<=@9 =H =G J9FM IB@=?9@M H<5H

=AA=;F5H=CB PCKG C: H<=G CF89F C: A5;B=HI89 75B 69 GIGH5=B98 CJ9F GI7< 5 @CB;

D9F=C8 C: H=A9 H<=G 7CAD5F=GCB 75B ;=J9 IG GCA9 =BHI=H=CB CB <CK H<9 F9HIFBG

C: =AA=;F5H=CB 89D9B8 CB H<9 G=N9 C: H<9 PCKG

-B89F +79B5F=C 34 H<9 BIA69F C: =AA=;F5BHG 5FF=J=B; 5H +D5=B CJ9F H<9

  D9F=C8 =G HK=79 H<9 BIA69F C: =AA=;F5BHG H<5B IB89F +79B5F=C 34 G

5 F9GI@H 9AD@CMA9BH D9F 75D=H5 KCI@8 69 <=;<9F CB@M G@=;<H@M CJ9F H<9 G<CFH

5B8 A98=IA FIB 5B8 ACF9 BCH=7956@M 5H H<9  <CF=NCB 6IH 5H H<9 7CGH C:

5 GI6GH5BH=5@ 89H9F=CF5H=CB C: @56CF DFC8I7H=J=HM G99 =;IF9  +H=@@ @5F;9F

=AA=;F5H=CB PCKG KCI@8 F9GI@H =B 5B =B7F95G9 C: ( D9F 75D=H5 C: 5 GA5@@

A5;B=HI89 /=H< ACF9 =AA=;F5H=CB H<9 GIDD@M C: @56CF =B7F95G9G 5B8 :CF H<9

F95GCBG 9LD@5=B98 69:CF9 H<9 =BJ9GHA9BH F5H9 KCI@8 69 5@GC <=;<9F K=H<CIH

C6G9FJ=B; 5BM G=;B=O75BH 7<5B;9 =B H<9 G5J=B; F5H9 CBG9EI9BH@M H<9 7IFF9BH

577CIBH 89O7=H KCI@8 GIU9F 5B 588=H=CB5@ 89H9F=CF5H=CB 'B H<9 69B9OH G=89

H<9 89D9B89B7M F5H=C =B7F95G9G @9GG =ADCFH5BH@M G=B79 H<9 DCDI@5H=CB 5;9G @9GG

EI=7?@M 5B8 H<9 9LD97H98 =B7F95G9 =B H<9 D9F79BH5;9 C: ( GD9BH CB D9BG=CBG

KCI@8 69 @9GG DFCBCIB798

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 34 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 =;IF9  5G<98 @=B9G +79B5F=C  +C@=8 @=B9G +79B5F=C 

detrended wages p.c. Effective labor supply

2
1.1
1.5
1
0.9
1
0.8
0.7 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

p.c. capital stock detrended per capita GDP

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Employment per capita GDP over Employment

0.4

0.3 0.5

0.2 0.4

0.1 0.3
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

I/GDP S/GDP
0.4 0.4

0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1

0.1 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Bcc/GDP dependency ratio

0.2 0.8

0.1 0.6

0
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Pensions over GDP Pension Deficit over GDP

0.3 0.2
0.15
0.2 0.1
0.05
0.1 0
-0.05
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 35 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

    1+* & % ,') !% +  *"!## &%+%+ & !$$!

)+!&%

/9 BCK ?99D H<9 =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG C: H<9 65G9@=B9 G79B5F=C 6IH 7CBG=89F 5 G?=@@

8=GHF=6IH=CB C: H<9G9 PCKG ACF9 6=5G98 HCK5F8G <=;< G?=@@ C77ID5H=CBG 5G G<CKB

=B ,56@9 

#  ,'+!&% !*+)!,+!&% & $$!)%+*

&CBA5BI5@ %5BI5@

+?=@@98 -BG?=@@98 +?=@@98 -BG?=@@98

+79B5F=C        

+79B5F=C     

G 75B 69 G99B =B =;IF9  5B8 7C@IABG 34 5B8 34 C: ,56@9  H<9 ACGH

G=;B=O75BH 9U97HG 5F9 HC 69 :CIB8 =B H<9 9JC@IH=CB C: ( D9F 9AD@CM99 +=B79

=B H<9 HKC G79B5F=CG =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG 5F9 C: H<9 G5A9 CF89F C: A5;B=HI89

5B8 =B CIF AC89@ 9AD@CMA9BH F5H9G C: =AA=;F5BH CB@M J5FM 6M 5;9 5B8 BCH

6M C77ID5H=CB H<9 G?=@@ ID;F589 =AA=;F5H=CB <5G BC 9U97HG CB 9AD@CMA9BH

D9F 75D=H5 CK9J9F ( D9F 75D=H5 =B7F95G9G BCH=7956@M 6M    5B8

  F9GD97H=J9@M 5H    5B8  5G 5 F9GI@H C: 5 ACF9 :5JCF56@9

9JC@IH=CB C: @56CF DFC8I7H=J=HM K<=7< =G 5@GC =ADI@G98 6M 5 @5F;9F 577IAI@5H=CB

C: 75D=H5@

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 36 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 =;IF9  5G<98 @=B9G +79B5F=C  +C@=8 @=B9G +79B5F=C 

detrended wages p.c. Effective labor supply

2

1.5
1

1
0.8
0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

p.c. capital stock detrended per capita GDP

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Employment per capita GDP over Employment

0.4

0.3 0.5

0.2 0.4

0.1 0.3
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

I/ GDP S/GDP
0.4 0.4

0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1

0.1 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Bcc/GDP dependency ratio

0.2 0.8

0.1 0.6

0
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Pensions over GDP Pension Deficit over GDP

0.3 0.2
0.15
0.2 0.1
0.05
0.1 0
-0.05
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 37 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

  &%#,!% )$)"*

/9 <5J9 D9F:CFA98 G9J9F5@ 577CIBH=B; 9L9F7=G9G HC ;5I;9 H<9 5;;F9;5H9 9U97HG

C: =AA=;F5H=CB IB89F 8=U9F9BH 7CB8=H=CBG F9;5F8=B; H<9 9JC@IH=CB C: =BH9F9GH

F5H9G 5B8 H<9 G?=@@ 7CADCG=H=CB C: =AA=;F5H=CB PCKG CF H<5H K9 <5J9 IG98

5 8MB5A=7 ;9B9F5@ 9EI=@=6F=IA CJ9F@5DD=B; ;9B9F5H=CBG AC89@ 75@=6F5H98 HC

H<9 +D5B=G< 97CBCAM IG=B; 5G 5 65G9@=B9 G79B5F=C H<9 89AC;F5D<=7 DFC>97H=CBG

7IFF9BH@M 9BJ=G5;98 6M H<9 +D5B=G< &5H=CB5@ +H5H=GH=7G 'T79 ,<=G =G 5 F5H<9F

GHM@=N98 AC89@ H<5H 8C9G BCH 577CIBH :CF G9J9F5@ :57HG K9@@8C7IA9BH98 =B A=

7FC97CBCA9HF=7 GHI8=9G CB H<9 9U97HG C: =AA=;F5H=CB =B CH<9F 7CIBHF=9G 6IH BCH

M9H =B +D5=B GI7< 5G 8=U9F9BH DF9:9F9B79G 69HK99B =AA=;F5BHG 5B8 B5H=J9G F9

;5F8=B; H<9 7CBGIADH=CB@9=GIF9 7<C=79 H<9 =AD9F:97H GI6GH=HIH=CB =B DFC8I7H=CB

69HK99B =AA=;F5BHG 5B8 B5H=J9G H<9 =AD57H C: =AA=;F5BHG CB H<9 9AD@CMA9BH

F5H9 5B8 DFC8I7H=J=HM C: B5H=J9 KCF?9FG 5B8 H<9 5GG=A=@5H=CB 5B8 F9HIFB D5HH9FBG

C: =AA=;F5BHG 9GD=H9 H<9G9 8F5K657?G HC 69 5A9B898 5G ACF9 A=7FC97CBCA=7

9AD=F=75@ 9J=89B79 CB H<9 +D5B=G< 97CBCAM 697CA9G 5J5=@56@9 H<9 F9GI@HG DFC

J=89 GCA9 =BH9F9GH=B; =BG=;<HG CB H<9 A5;B=HI89 C: H<9 9U97HG C: =AA=;F5H=CB CB

9AD@CMA9BH DFC8I7H=J=HM ( D9F 75D=H5 =BJ9GHA9BH 5B8 G5J=B; F5H9G 5B8

H<9 OB5B7=5@ DCG=H=CB C: H<9 D9BG=CB GMGH9A

,<9 A5=B 7CB7@IG=CBG :FCA H<9G9 9L9F7=G9G 5F9 H<9 :C@@CK=B; !AA=;F5H=CB

=B7F95G9G 9AD@CMA9BH H<FCI;< 5 DCG=H=J9 =AD57H CB H<9 5;9 GHFI7HIF9 C: H<9

DCDI@5H=CB 5B8 5 7CADCG=H=CB 9U97H 7CA=B; :FCA <=;<9F C6G9FJ98 9AD@CMA9BH

F5H9G C: H<9 =AA=;F5BHG 6IH =H <5G 5 G=;B=O75BH B9;5H=J9 9U97H CB DFC8I7H=J=HM

GC H<5H CJ9F5@@ =HG =AD57H CB ( D9F 75D=H5 5@H<CI;< DCG=H=J9 =G BCH @5F;9

BANCO DE ESPAÑA 38 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

 This negative eect on productivity could be avoided with a skill upgrade of the

composition of immigrant flows. There are also important eects of immigration

on the investment rate, while the impact on the saving rate is less significant.

Finally, none of the immigration scenarios contemplated in this exercise, what-

ever is size or composition, avoid a significant rise in pension expenditures and

a noticeable worsening in the financial situation of the Social Security system.

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 [14] KARA, E., and L. VON THADDEN (2006). Monetary Policy and Demo-

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BANCO DE ESPAÑA 41 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 0714

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