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China
will
push
back
on
any
attempt
by
the
U.S.
to
curtail
its
activities
in
the
South
China
Sea.
China
will
argue
that
the
U.S.
should
exercise
restraint
and
not
undermine
the
present
trend
towards
dialogue
between
China
and
the
Philippines
and
other
ASEAN
members.
China
just
announced
that
a
draft
Code
of
Conduct
has
been
drawn
up
that
will
now
be
considered
by
all
parties.
China
will
win
to
the
extent
that
Tillerson
agrees
to
disagree
and
leave
discussion
of
these
matters
to
the
two
presidents.
China
will
run
true
to
course
and
urge
the
U.S.
to
cooperate
on
global
issues.
Since
the
Trump
Administration
doesn't
seem
to
have
a
policy
for
the
South
China
Sea
the
status
quo
will
prevail.
It
remains
to
be
seen
whether
Xi
Jinping
will
repeat
his
September
2015
promise
to
President
Obama
in
the
White
House
Rose
Garden
not
to
militarize
the
South
China
Sea.
In
sum,
China
wins
if
the
presidential
summit
at
Mar
a
Largo
goes
ahead
and
the
two
leaders
give
the
appearance
of
progress
on
North
Korea.
Suggested
citation:
Carlyle
A.
Thayer,
U.S.
Secretary
of
State
Visits
Japan,
South
Korea
and
China,
Thayer
Consultancy
Background
Brief,
March
16,
2017.
All
background
briefs
are
posted
on
Scribd.com
(search
for
Thayer).
To
remove
yourself
from
the
mailing
list
type
UNSUBSCRIBE
in
the
Subject
heading
and
hit
the
Reply
key.
Thayer
Consultancy
provides
political
analysis
of
current
regional
security
issues
and
other
research
support
to
selected
clients.
Thayer
Consultancy
was
officially
registered
as
a
small
business
in
Australia
in
2002.