Special Analysis Report on Boko Haram

(Monday, June 20, 2011)

* The Real Threats of Terrorism
* Dangers Ahead
* Can Nigeria Terrorism?
* Coveat Emptor (Please Buyers Beware)!

* On Thursday, June 16, 2011 a suicide bomber struck

at the visitors section of the car park of the Louis Edet
House in Abuja, headquarters of the Nigeria Police Force
(NPF) which led to the destruction of over 36 vehicles there,
some deaths and injuries. This attack has heightened the
real threats of terrorism. Boko Haram (meaning Western
or non-Islamic education is a sin) sometimes called
Jamaatu Sunnah Lid da awati wal jihad claimed
responsibility for the dreadful Thursday bombing. Reports
have it that a suspected suicide bomber whos Mercedes
230, known as V-boot, had chased the Inspector General
of Police, Hafiz Ringims convoy into the police
headquarters. The mythical Abu Zaid like Jomo Gbomo of
MEND, senior member of Boko Haram who granted an
interview after the episode said his group is not ready for
dialogue again with the Nigerian authorities and will
continue with its armed campaign. The Abuja bombing
occurred about 10:45pm inside the massive compound
the 7- storey building of the Police headquarters. The
group claimed that it was irritated by the flare-up of Ringim
and Governor Shettima of Borno State during the donation
of 10 personnel Armored Carriers (APC) by the Borno
governor to the police to fight them.

Very soon we would wage jihad on the enemies

of God and his prophet. We want to make it known
that our jihadists (warriors) have arrived Nigeria
from Somalia where they got serious training on
warfare from our brethren who made the country
ungovernable and forced the interim government to
relocate to Kenya Boko Harams spokespersons said.
On March 10th, 2008, during the inauguration of the Anti-
terrorism Squad by the police, then Inspector-General of
police, Mr. Mike Mbama Okiro made a public
pronouncement that Nigeria, Africas most populous nation
roughly split between Christians and Muslims had raised
alarm over threats of al-Qaeda terrorism. Then, Okiros
forewarning generated much attention in local and
international media, Islamic grous in Nigeria, including
Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria (SCSN), held
several press conferences debunking such claims, and
labeled Okiro a liar. Though, the police chief then did not
give more details about it, but said warning was based on
intelligence reports. The Okiros statement generated much
controversy and the police later urged all to disregard the
Okiros outburst. Okiro may be vindicated and the real
threat has come.

* Boko Haram like other terrorist formations has grown.

Our study of armed groups elsewhere and in the Niger Delta
shows that there is always a stage of sprouting
development which starts with the group establishing the
organizations direction, and defining its strategy of struggle
which involves whether such group is going to be armed
or not. Boko Haram has passed these stages and from
discussions they are entrenched. However, influences from
external groups have also strengthened it. For example, if
one reads The Ghost Wars (2004) written by Steve Coll,
the Pulitzer Prize-wining journalist, in his 712 page book. A
book based meticulous research and firsthand accounts by
key government, intelligence and military personnel both
foreign and American, details the history of the CIAs role in
Afghanistan including its covert operations against the
soviet troops from 1979 to 1989), the rise of the Taliban,
the emergence of Bin Laden, and failed efforts by U.S.
forces to find and assassinate him in Afghanistan. The
above is similar to the story of Nigerias Boko Haram. They
spoke to journalists at different locations before and after
their actions. They adopt a hit and run, die or disappear
strategy .One of our researchers will be meeting them soon.
What explosive was used in the Abuja bombing? Was it
Semtex? Which was invented in the late 1950s by
Slanislav Brebera, the Czechs chemist? Semtex, is a
soap- size plastic explosive is always difficult to detect it
even in advanced countries, is been used in several terror
attacks in other countries. Nigerian intelligence community
is always anxious to talk to the public that is doing
something without solid intelligence information, because
their elevations and appointments are always politically
motivated. There is no passion and commitment to their
work.

* In 2003, Osama Bin Laden, the assassinated Saudi

terror chief named Nigeria, worlds eighth biggest oil
exporter as ripe for jihad or Islamic holy war. The northern
parts of Nigeria especially have witnessed some Islamist
violence. They are several armed Islamist groups, but were
not clear whether they were linked to Ladens al-Qaeda.
These groups include Hisbah, the Zamfara State
Vigilante Services (ZSVS), Al-Sunna Wal Jamma
(Followers of the prophet,) also known as The
Nigerian Taliban and others. The Nigerian Taliban was
formed sometimes around 2002. Its objective is the
establishment of Nigeria as an Islamic state; its adherents
are predominantly Maiduguri University Students from
northeastern part of Nigeria. Some of its 200 members
apparently took up arms for the first time in December,
2003, possibly in response to the attempt by the governor
of Yobe State to disband the group. Boko Haram militants
spoke to BBC journalists duo of Andrew Walker and
Abubakar Kaura, where they revealed that in their current
strategies they will employ suicide bombings. They really
mean it. One of our researchers is in touch with them now.
There is an arrangement to meeting them in a location of
their choice in any state in the north. The Nigerian borders
generally are very porous especially the north, the terrible
economic hardship and religious tension, are some of the
primary factors that make young people vulnerable to
recruitment into dangerous terrorist networks. The question
we should also ask, where are those hundreds of various
armed Islamic formations who received training and drunk
the intoxicating Islamic dogmatic which promotes violence?
Can the war against the new face of terrorism them be won?

* Can Nigeria fight the new terrorism? The answer is

No. Nigeria with its corrupt, unserious and dishonest
security folks cant fight terrorism but with the help of the
US, Israel etc can do to some extend, because these
twosome countries have some histories of counter-terrorism
efforts. When the Boko Haram bomb occurred a lot spoken
to, only sympathize with others who died and not
policemen, because the force is futilely violent and anti
people. Some said the Police deserve that.

* Buyers Beware! This report is not an authoritative one

like those we usually give out on the Niger Delta situation.
The above is just analysis based on interviews and reports.
Note that is not an investigative report like others, but
analysis. So, it can be said to be solid. This is not familiar a
terrain for overt and covert investigations. Please, buyers
beware!

- End