Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182

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Automation in Construction
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon

Using the National Digital Forecast Database for model-based building controls
Sean Hay Kim , Godfried Augenbroe
College of Architecture, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: An accurate short-term weather forecast enhances the performance of model-based control strategies for a
Accepted 10 May 2012 building. Most existing short-term forecast methods and models are based on historical archives of weather
Available online 29 June 2012 variables observed about an individual building. This practice leads to ask: 1) Does a short-term forecast
model based on a collection of the past data have sufcient potential to predict future behavior, which is in-
Keywords:
herently random?; 2) If historical data is not available, or if only a limited number of weather variables is
Building simulation
Building controls
available, what are the other alternatives?; and 3) Would it be possible to derive a relevant weather data
Online weather forecast set from an incomplete historical data-driven model?
Model-based controls The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) XML may answer these questions. This paper discusses an ap-
Uncertainty plicability of the NDFD XML for model-based building control solutions. It also presents a simplied, easily
Weather implementable, and reliable method to predict hourly global horizontal solar radiation. The short-term
weather forecast method using the NDFD XML shows an outstanding performance of forecasting erratic
and sporadic characteristics of weather, particularly when compared to the historical data-driven method.
However, its forecast performance is not always accurate due to the inherent irregularity of weather. In
order to increase robustness of model-based controls, we recommend that short-term weather forecasts
should be considered as possessing scenario uncertainty. Including multiple scenarios into formulation of con-
trol problem can effectively describe scenario uncertainty when part of scenarios account for such erratic
nature.
2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction inside and outside of the model is an inevitable issue in model-

A cornucopia of recent information technology (IT) has advanced
the control systems of commercial buildings. Before the 1980s, almost
all HVAC controls installed in large commercial buildings in North
America were pneumatic. These pneumatic controls were not able
to directly control the actuator, thus they suffered from the bias intro-
duced by the dynamic properties of pneumatic machinery [1]. Direct
digital control (DDC) systems have replaced the pneumatic controls
and hard-wired systems by means of signal communication technol-
ogy. The DDC system is able to directly control HVAC actuators based
on the status information transferred through sensors and monitors.
With this rapid evolution in the hardware of the building control
systems, new paradigms of control software solutions have been
mainly focusing on integrating sub-systems via developing their
models. Current researches in applications of the model-based con-
trols for heating and cooling of buildings have improved energy sav-
ing, cost reduction, and thermal comfort, and have provided an
overall healthier indoor environment.
However, the success of model-based controls depends on the in-
formation used to construct and exercise the model. Uncertainty
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: seanhay.kim@gmail.com, seanhkim@gatech.edu (S.H. Kim).
based controls since they are grounded in prediction. In particular,
uncertainty in predicting short-term (24 h or less) weather is highly
signicant due to its substantial impact on a building's energy
consumption.
Recognizing the importance of weather forecasting, many studies
suggest using short-term weather forecasts based on historical re-
cords observed in the weather stations of an individual building.
However, after careful literature review, it is our hypothesis that fore-
casting weather has not been sufciently addressed in terms of
uncertainty.
Uncertainty in the weather forecast holds characteristics that are
both imprecise (e.g., lack of knowledge) and sporadic in nature.
Therefore the forecast performance of short-term weather forecast
models depends on 1) how thoroughly a short-term forecast model
can capture signicant dynamics of the weather (model accuracy)
and 2) how a short-term forecast model can cope with a sudden
change of the weather (prediction accuracy).
Three research questions for short-term forecast models arise ac-
cordingly: 1) Does a short-term forecast model based on a collection
of the past data have a sufcient potential to predict the future behav-
ior that is inherently random?; 2) If historical data is not available or
only limited number of weather variables are available, what are the
other alternatives?; and 3) Would it be possible to derive a relevant
weather data set from an incomplete historical data-driven model?

0926-5805/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.autcon.2012.05.012
 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
This study intends to provide answers for these questions by val-
idating the performance of short-term weather forecast models in a
worst-case weather scenario, i.e., a season when volatile weather
conditions are frequent. Our hypothesis is that the use of online
weather forecasts for model-based control applications would per-
form better in the worst-case scenario. Such online weather forecasts
are made by using large-scale atmospheric models, satellite images,
multiple-points surface observations, and massive computing power
to predict the trend of weather changes [2]. We believe that the na-
ture of these data sources and composition principles of online
weather forecasting support the hypothesis for this study. There are
several existing short-term weather forecast models that include on-
line sources as weather inputs. However, they have not fully an-
swered the above inquiries. They are also limited in functionality
and applicability, which shall be discussed in the next section.
2. Review of online weather forecasts
Short-term weather forecast models in literature are largely cate-
gorized into time series models [35] or neural network models [6,7].
Both are based on historical archives of weather variables, but there
are critical disparities between archived data and actual weather ob-
servations. Hybrid approaches that combine the use of online weath-
er forecasting with historical data-based models can alleviate these
disparities. Several baseline studies focusing on hybrid methods de-
veloped from time series analyses are summarized.
Chen and Athienitis [4] developed a predictor model of ambient
temperature and solar radiation, which comprises both historical ob-
servations and local weather forecasts. Using look-up tables, online
weather forecasting can modify historically shaped factors.
Ren and Wright [8] presented historical time series-based prediction
methods: a pure stochastic method (i.e., ARMA and ARMAX), a com-
bined stochastic-deterministic method, and a deterministic method
(i.e., EWMA and sinusoidal function). The smallest error was found in
the combined stochastic-deterministic method in predicting tempera-
ture, while the deterministic method was found to work best in
predicting solar radiation. Their contributions are re-examined and
claried by in-depth studies from Henze's group.
Henze et al. [5] investigated impacts of both stochastic and deter-
ministic short-term forecast models on predictive optimal control of
active thermal energy systems and passive building mass. The exam-
ined short-term forecast models include bin, unbiased random walk,
and seasonal integrated ARMA predictors. The best prediction accura-
cy is found with the bin model that is developed from the previous 30
to 60 days of historical observations. Motivated by this result, Florita
and Henze [9] further investigated prediction accuracy of more
short-term forecast models, including moving average models and
nonlinear autoregressive neural network models. Against a common
belief that neural network models are superior to traditional time se-
ries models, the simple time series models with deviation modica-
tions outperformed even the most complicated NARX model with
regards to model predictive control (MPC) applications. The expo-
nentially weighted moving average (EWMA) with absolute deviation
modications demonstrated the best performance in short-term pre-
dictions of dry-bulb temperature, global horizontal radiation, and rel-
ative humidity.
Zhang and Hanby [2] proposed a short-term forecast method
using multiple online weather forecasts (e.g., Accuweather.com)
with local observation data. Hourly ambient temperature is forecast-
ed by a linear combination of temperatures that are both observed
and directly forecasted from online sources. Hourly global solar radi-
ation is also a result of the linear combination of solar radiations from
each online source, and it is obtained through a stochastic conversion
that interprets descriptive weather information into solar attenuation
scales, which aligns with the observed solar radiation data.
171
In general, online weather forecasts are used to rene and en-
hance the data quality of the weather forecast formulated from his-
torical time series analysis. In particular, these cases are when the
online forecasts are used 1) to rescale the prole of a weather vari-
able, or 2) to include extreme values that have been rounded by sam-
pling or averaging historical time series.
3. Rationale and challenges of using online weather forecasts
Creating a customized weather forecast prole for an individual
building is one of the most signicant merits of historical data-
driven methods. Obtaining proprietary historical records for ordinary
buildings, however, is not an easy task. Individual weather stations,
sensors and monitoring systems, and communication systems con-
nected to the energy management system (EMS) need to be installed
initially. Another important point is the data quality issue. First, data
should be collected for the period when meaningful information can
be derived. Next, maintaining the quality of the data requires extra
post-processing and maintenance efforts, such as signal conditioning
and renement.
Although these are justiable concerns regarding the potential in-
completeness of historical data-driven models, using online weather
forecasts can negate many of these concerns, as they have the follow-
ing merits:
Most of the required weather variables can be directly obtained
through simple interface (such as web-based interface) provided
by online weather forecast information service providers (ISPs).
Online weather forecast accuracy has been validated ISPs have
certied their data quality.
Meanwhile, some existing studies have raised legitimate con-
cerns. These concerns include:
Some required weather variables in building simulations, such as
solar irradiation data, are not directly reported.
An increasing uncertainty exists when forecast projections are
longer.
Uncertainty persists due to discrepancies between the location of
weather observation and the building site.
There is a risk of sudden service interruption and concerns about
the resulting broken information.
Users may question the reliability of external sources.
The following sections further discuss these issues and suggest
adequate and efcient approaches to resolve them with respect to
using online weather forecasts for model-based control applications.
3.1. Missing critical weather variables such as hourly global horizontal
radiation
This challenge has caused authors of many previous studies to
choose historical data-driven methods. However, this challenge can
be overcome through the development of an empirical forecast
model using rst-hand weather information. A number of solar radi-
ation modeling studies based on empirical analysis [1014] have
shown an outstanding performance in the prediction of global hori-
zontal radiation when the models are developed by incorporating
several critical weather factors. In particular, these studies have em-
phasized the impact of local cloud movements and cloud cover on es-
timating global horizontal radiation. As a functional component of the
clear day index [13] or the clearness index [15], a local sky status can
be used to model an erratic change of solar surface insolation. For ex-
ample, the Satel-Light project [16] used sky condition information to
develop an analytical method that forecasts hourly global horizontal
solar radiation.
172 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
3.2. Uncertainty from long forecast projections and coarser spatial
resolution of the grid
It is a natural characteristic of forecasting that a forecast with a
longer projection fosters higher uncertainty. To minimize errors be-
tween the forecast and the reality, real time forecasts seem to be a
resolution. However, model-based control applications targeting
higher energy efciency especially when the building mass plays
a signicant role do not necessarily require the use of real time
forecasts due to greater time constant of the building. It would be
more reasonable to nd a length of forecast projection that is long
enough to reect the transition of signicant thermal behavior of
building systems with a reasonable degree of modeling accuracy.
Online weather sources take the weather information at the
macro climate level and then report to the public, after adjusting re-
gional factors, at the grid of the predened distance. Uncertainty
due to coarser spatial resolution of the forecast grid, however, can
be detrimental when the building of interest is located in strong
micro climate zones, such as downtown San Francisco. Then the
issue becomes reliability, which shall be explained next.
3.3. Service stability and reliability
Service stability issues can happen to any system or model.
Frequent breakdowns of nation-wide (or globe-wide) services should
be treated as emergency rather than problematic service quality
issues. In this case, a responsive back-up or recovery plan should be
implemented, as a principle of general risk management dictates.
The reliability issue can be even more detrimental when only a
single source is used for the forecast. It is hard to distinguish faulty in-
formation from correct information when only a single source is cho-
sen. Two typical approaches for this issue include 1) ltering selective
single sources after comparisons with reference sources, and 2) ag-
gregating multiple sources. Both approaches need multiple sources
Fig. 1. An exemplary code of the NDFD XML.
of weather forecasts and shall be discussed in further detail in
Section 10.
4. National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Extensible Markup
Language (XML)
We introduce the NDFD XML as an alternative short-term weather
forecast: in addition to being a useful application, it addresses the is-
sues discussed in previous section.
4.1. Features of the NDFD XML
The NDFD XML [17] is a service providing the general public, gov-
ernment agencies, and commercial enterprise with data from the Na-
tional Weather Service's (NWS) digital forecast database. This service
enables users to request the NDFD data over the Internet and to re-
ceive the requested information back in an XML format; an example
script is depicted in Fig. 1. The NDFD XML Simple Object Access Pro-
tocol (SOAP) makes this process possible, which is a procedure of
requesting and receiving data, illustrated in Fig. 2.
The NDFD XML contains weather forecasts for any combination of
signicant meteorological parameters, including temperature, sky
cover, relative humidity, dew point, snow amount, wind direction,
wind gust, wind speed, weather description, etc. Such weather pa-
rameters are reported hourly; therefore, they support developing an
estimation model of hourly global horizontal radiation. Along with
its rich weather information, the NDFD XML service has the following
benets:
Service quality control is ensured by the National NOAA.
All meteorological elements are available for the contiguous United
States.
Signicant outlooks for building control applications (e.g., One-
month Avg. Temperature Above Normal) are included.
Service is updated at least every hour on a 24 7 basis.
 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182 173

Fig. 2. Process of including weather forecast data originated from the NDFD server.

Grids for the contiguous United States are available at 5 kilometer
spatial resolution.
Multiple point forecasts are available with zip code, city name, and
latitude and longitude pair searches.
Forecasts of most elements are projected either at every 6 to 168 h
or at every 3 to 72 h.
Service is open source and free to the public.
Service has convenient applicability features, such as time series
data, and an easy interface.
Taking into account concerns regarding uncertainty and service-
ability issues of using online forecasts for model-based control appli-
cations, this study aims for several practical deliverables developed
from merits of the NDFD XML. Objectives of this study include:
To suggest a reasonable length of forecast projection of the NDFD
XML that ensures a reasonable degree of accuracy and a proper
use of the NDFD XML as a weather forecast source for model-
based control applications (Section 4.2)
To propose a forecast model of hourly global solar radiation based
on weather variables directly forecasted by the NDFD XML
(Sections 57)
To demonstrate outstanding forecast performance of the NDFD XML
compared to legacy methods, in particular when the erratic and
sporadic characteristics of weather are dominant (Sections 8 and 9)
To demonstrate an exemplary application case of using the NDFD
XML for model-based control in real world applications (Section 9)
To present a new perspective of integrating multiple weather sce-
narios together for model-based controls (Section 10)
4.2. Forecast projection of the NDFD XML
The shorter the execution horizon, the closer the control solution is
to a realtime application. This is because more frequent executions in-
troduce more frequent updates of the current system states and ex-
ternal information, thus becoming closer to real time.
As length of the planning horizon becomes extended, uncertainty
in external and internal future events can become more detrimental
to the performance of robust control strategies. Hence there is a
trade-off to choosing the appropriate planning horizon; although a
shorter planning horizon contains less uncertainty, the planning hori-
zon still needs to be long enough to fully account for thermo-dynamic
transitions of the building systems that it will control. An executed
control strategy is always the rst part of the optimized result over
the entire planning horizon (eH pH); thus, the executed control
strategy may not be a true optimum if the planning horizon is not
long enough to fully capture the thermodynamic properties of the
system.
In the next section, we investigate a reasonable length of the plan-
ning horizon when the NDFD XML is used as a weather forecast
source for model-based controls. The National Weather Service pro-
vides validation scores, which validate several weather variables fore-
casted through the NDFD, that support the proposed lengths for the
planning horizon.
4.2.2. Validation scores
Validation scores are statistical criteria for comparing forecasted
values to actual values, and a set of validation scores are assessed
for each weather variable [20]. For example, validation scores for sur-
face temperatures and relative humidity use Mean Absolute Error

An accurate forecast projection of the short-term weather is

heavily dependent upon planning the horizon of model-based con-
trols. The following reviews how control horizons can be established
and also investigates how a reasonable length of the forecast projec-
tion of the NDFD XML can be selected in order to ensure a reasonable
degree of forecast accuracy.

4.2.1. Control horizons

Model-based control solutions should be developed for a certain
time period ahead, which consists of several future control modes;
this is called the planning horizon (pH). During the planning horizon,
the thermal state at the last time step of the previous execution hori-
zon becomes an initial state, and then new external information, such
as weather forecasts and building usage scenarios, is introduced. A ro-
bust control strategy for the planning horizon is then structured and
formulated based on this information. A vector of the resulting robust
control solution can be discretized and saved as discrete time series
(e.g., at every 15 min or 30 min). Finally, the planned robust control
strategies are executed for an execution horizon (eH). This cyclic pro-
cess is depicted in the Fig. 3.
As illustrated in Fig. 3, the planned control strategy can be trig-
gered either periodically at regular intervals [18] or upon occurrences
of signicant events [19]. For the rst case, choosing the preset length
of the execution horizon depends on the specic control application. Fig. 3. Different triggering options of the planned control strategy.
174 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
(MAE) (Eq. (1)) and bias (Eq. (2)). Validation scores for sky cover use
Fraction Correct (Eq. (3)) and Heidke Skill Scores (Eq. (4)).
1 N
MAE jx  x^i j
N i1 i
1 N
Bias x^  xi 2
N i1 i
NC
Fraction Correct
T
NC  E
Heidke Skill Score
T E
where x denotes the observed variable; x^ denotes the estimated var-
iable; NC denotes the number of counts that the forecast and the ob-
servations match within the given threshold; T denotes the total
number of forecasts; and E denotes the number of forecasts expected
to verify based on chance.
NWS provides validation scores in two dimensions: 1) temporal
validation depending on projection hours (from 3 h to 168 h) for a
weather variable and 2) validation score distribution for a weather
variable at 1319 stations in the U.S. continent at any projection hour.
From a close examination of validation scores of the NDFD, we
found that validation scores of most weather variables have trends
of moving up and down at 24 h regular time intervals [20]. Exemplary
snapshots of MAEs and Fraction Correct of three weather variables in
March 2011 are below. In Figs. 4 and 5, MAEs tend to grow while uc-
tuating at a 24 h regular time interval. Fig. 6 illustrates that the Frac-
tion Correct of the sky cover is stable at approximately 0.35 during
the initial 24 h projection while keeping with the 24 h regular time
interval.
These tendencies vary per weather variable and per month, but
they consistently show up with regular 24 h time intervals. This pre-
sents an important insight that a 24 h time period is an appropriate
length of time for an acceptable level of accuracy for forecast
projections.
Fig. 4. MAE of the surface temperature.
This study suggests a 24 h planning horizon as a general guideline
for using the NDFD XML for model-based control applications. This
guideline is also supported by a series of studies developed by
Henze's group [18,21,22] that suggested a 24 h planning horizon for
1
model-based control applications for buildings where the thermal
mass plays a role in the building's energy performance.
5. Modeling short-term weather forecasts of global horizontal ra-
diation with use of the NDFD XML
3
Three weather variables, drybulb temperature (Tamb), relative
humidity (RH), and global horizontal radiation (Ih) are frequently re-
4 ferred to as the essential weather inputs for building simulations
[8,9]. As global horizontal radiation is not directly available from the
NDFD XML, this section presents the development of a reliable esti-
mation model.
5.1. Methods of modeling and validation
Local solar radiation load on a building varies depending on its
geographic location, temporal variation, and surrounding environ-
ment. Some elements of the surrounding environment that could im-
pact the solar radiation load on a building are transient cloud
movements, miscellaneous reective objects around the measure-
ment point, and atmospheric turbidity. Instead of a awless predic-
tion of the imminent weather that fully captures such highly
transient local variety in atmospheric condition parameters, a reason-
able estimation that captures the key phenomenon would result in
acceptable accurate results. Therefore, we choose a decomposition
model that incorporates a combination of signicant subcomponents
to estimate hourly global horizontal radiation. The decomposition
model is developed based on theoretical models and their critical
weather variables directly imported from the NDFD XML.
For validation purposes, two types of climates were investigated
two U.S. sites with different cloud conditions: Arcata, CA (40.88N,
124.08W), and Las Vegas, NV (36.06N, 115.08W). According to
the NOAA fact sheet, Las Vegas is one of the least cloudy areas in
 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182 175

Fig. 5. MAE of the relative humidity.

the States, with around 73 days per year of cloud cover, while Arcata
is considered one of the cloudiest areas, with approximately 188 days
per year of cloud cover.
5.2. Modeling hourly global horizontal radiation (Ih)
A large number of models have been developed to describe trans-
mitted solar radiation from the sky top and loss of radiation on the
way to the surface. In particular, clouds have the largest inuence
on atmospheric radiative heat transfer [23]. Thus a local cloud status
must be included in predicting global horizontal radiation for higher
accuracy. Since the NDFD XML regularly reports current and future
movement of clouds and the status of local sky conditions, the pro-
posed model compiles this information into an empirical model in
order to obtain a high-delity estimation model. Some established
concepts and applied terminology are introduced next.
Cloud index (n): A cloud index [24,25] indicates a measure of the
cloud cover. It varies between 0 (cloud free) and 1 (completely over-
cast). Denition of cloud index corresponds to the sky cover, which is
reported by the NDFD XML.

Fig. 6. Fraction correct of the Sky cover.

176 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
Clear sky index (kC): To relate the observed cloud state with an ac-
tual transmission loss due to clouds, clear sky index is introduced
[25]. This index describes cloud transmission as a ratio of the global
horizontal radiation (G) to the clear sky global radiation (GC) as de-
ned:
G
kC
Gc
Within the Satel-Light project, a simple relationship with the clear
sky index and the cloud index is derived [24,25]. In this project, an ac-
curate cloud index n is calculated based on a relation of the building
albedo, ground albedo, and cloud albedo that are read from pixels in
satellite images. Directly replacing n with the sky cover forecasted
by the NDFD XML according to the Satel-Light project, however, re-
sults in modeled horizontal radiation disagreeing with the actual
global horizontal radiation. This discrepancy exists because cloud
conditions have a stronger impact on horizontal radiation than previ-
ously believed.
To mitigate strong cloud index n, a discount factor is introduced.
After several adjustments, we found that a simple linear relation
works well with the three years of actual hourly global horizon radi-
ations in both sites. The relation is dened as:
kC 1  n where 0n1 and 01 8 Figs. 7 to 10 illustrate monthly CV-RMSEs and MBEs, calculated
is optimized over validation procedure of the proposed hourly glob-
al horizontal radiation forecast model through exhaustive searches.
0.55 is found optimal for Arcata, and 0.21 is found optimal for Las
Vegas. The fact that for Arcata is larger than for Las Vegas clearly
indicates that sky conditions in the cloudier area are more sensitive
than in the sunnier area for calculating solar insolation.
Clear sky global radiation (GC): Key factors of the empirical corre-
lation include site location and astronomical parameters such as solar
zenith angle. Since these factors exclusively determine the accuracy
of a global radiation model, a clear sky global radiation model that
was developed on the site with similar meteorological conditions to
the site under consideration would be best suited. Among many
clear sky global radiation models [2630], Haurwitz's model
(Eq. (9)) reasonably agrees with the results from this study.
0:057=cosz
Gc 1098cosz e
By use of Eqs. (7)(9), the hourly global horizontal radiation is
obtained as described in Eq. (10), where solar zenith angle z is
updated hourly by solar trajectory.
0:057=cosz
Ih 1  n  1098cosz e 10
6. Model accuracy of hourly global solar radiation estimated with
the NDFD XML
To validate the model accuracy of estimating hourly global hori-
zontal radiation, three-year actual measurements of hourly global
horizontal radiations (24 7 from 2007 to 2009) in two test sites
were obtained as references from the Measurement and Instrumenta-
tion Data Center (MIDC) of the National Renewable Energy Laborato-
ry (NREL). Then an hourly global solar radiation model was validated
over the actual observation with respect to the following statistical
criteria:
6.1. Statistical criteria
Two standard statistical metrics are used for validating both
model accuracy and prediction accuracy of the forecasted weather
variables. They are the coefcient-of-variation of the root mean
square error (CV-RMSE) (Eq. (5)) and the mean bias error (MBE)
(Eq. (6)):
q
^ 2
N i1 xi  x i
1 N
CV  RMSE 5
N i1 xi
1 N
7
1
Ni1 xi  x^i
MBE N 6
N i1 xi
1 N
where x denotes the observed variable, and x^ denotes the estimated
variable.
CV-RMSE indicates short-term deviation of a model, allowing a
term-by-term comparison, and it identies how much the estimation
is scattered around the measurement. MBE indicates long-term trends
of a model, and it identies how high or low the estimations are with
respect to the actual measurement (i.e., average offset). A MBE of zero
is possible, if over-estimations and under-estimations cancel each
other. Therefore, MBE should be viewed in conjunction with CV-
RMSE to determine forecasting errors.
6.2. Validation of the estimation model of hourly global solar radiation
based on both the observed and the estimated hourly global horizon-
tal radiations in Arcata and Las Vegas. Variations of the two statistical
criteria indicate that the estimations of the hourly global solar radia-
tion agree with the three years of observed solar radiation at both
sites.
Also, the result coincides with the previous studies presenting a
strong correlation between the reported solar insolation error and
seasonal and climatic variations. In warm seasons vs. cold seasons,
cold seasons showed increased errors. When a cloudy and humid cli-
mate is compared to a sunny and arid region, decreased errors are
found in the sunny and arid climates.
7. Prediction accuracy of the NDFD XML
Since the sky cover critically governs model accuracy of the pro-
posed model, prediction accuracy of the sky cover forecasted in the
9 NDFD XML is another key factor for validating the proposed global
horizontal radiation estimation model. We also need to investigate
the prediction accuracy of temperature and relative humidity fore-
casted in the NDFD XML in order to deliver a complete set of essential
weather information.
Tables 1 and 2 illustrate the published proles of monthly average
ambient temperatures, relative humidity, and sky cover for Arcata
and Las Vegas, respectively, in 2009. The proles are accompanied
by the MAE, Bias, and Fraction Correct of the 24 h projection forecasts
for each weather variable [20].
Fig. 7. CV-RMSEs of the hourly global horizontal radiation in Arcata from 2007 to 2009.
 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
Fig. 8. CV-RMSEs of the hourly global horizontal radiation in Las Vegas from 2007 to
2009.
Similar to the previous ndings in validating the model accuracy,
the prediction accuracy of the three weather variables of Arcata (clo-
udy and humid) slightly underperforms those of Las Vegas (sunny
and arid). However, seasonal variations were not apparent. This im-
plies that the NDFD XML offers stable forecast performances over
the year.
Although the above validation scores are ofcially published, their
prediction accuracy still needs to be compared with other benchmark
forecast models using the same metrics. Therefore, CV-RMSs and
MBEs of ambient temperature and relative humidity of the NDFD of
Arcata were calculated from MAEs and Bias reported in Tables 1 and
2. The prediction accuracy for Arcata was expected to be lower than
that of Las Vegas, making Arcata the worstcase scenario. Since we
may have to impose too many assumptions to calculate CV-RMSEs
and MBEs of the forecasted global horizontal radiation from the
reported Fraction Corrects of sky cover, only CV-RMSEs and MBEs of
temperature and relative humidity were calculated. Results are
shown in Table 3.
Compared to CV-RMSs and MBEs reported by benchmark forecast
models, the NDFD has shown an acceptable range of prediction accu-
racies for these two weather variables. The Hybrid method [2] ap-
pears to be outperforming the others. However, since the reported
statistics are not analyzed based on identical geographical locations
and seasonal conditions, and important weather variables are still
missing, it is hard to conclude that one method is better than others
with the limited information.
8. Performance comparisons of short-term weather forecast
models
The purpose of this section is to examine robustness of the NDFD
XML compared to benchmarks that determine whether it is capable
to forecast erratic and sporadic characteristics of weather. Therefore,
testing under a worstcase weather scenario is more logical than tak-
ing tests for the whole year. Actual NDFD XML forecasts were
Fig. 9. MBEs of the hourly global horizontal radiation in Arcata from 2007 to 2009.
177
Fig. 10. MBEs of the hourly global horizontal radiation in Las Vegas from 2007 to 2009.
collected for a month, from mid-February to mid-March in 2010, as
this period represents the worstcase weather scenario for Arcata.
This period is chosen for three reasons: 1) It has the lowest overall ac-
curacy of the proposed hourly global horizontal radiation forecast
model (shown in Fig. 7) due to highly erratic cloud movement and
extended cloudy conditions. Fig. 11 depicts the global horizontal radi-
ation becoming atypical as the cloud state uctuates hour by hour. 2)
Higher MAEs and Bias in temperature and relative humidity are ob-
served during this period (the shaded area in Table 1). And 3) This
is a representative sample period of the cold season 1 for Arcata.
We also investigated several historical data-driven models
reported in literature. They include exponentially weighted moving
average (EWMA) [3,8,9], autoregressive moving average, unbiased
random walk, sinusoidal functions [8,9], Bin method, Like-yesterday
model, and Articial neural network models. Since the EWMA and
the like-yesterday model have shown overall good prediction accura-
cy in recent studies [8,9], we chose these two historical data-driven
models as the benchmarks.
8.1. EWMA with absolute deviation modication (Abs.dev.EWMA)
An underlying idea of the EWMA is that recent observations in the
historical data are more inuential on the forecast accuracy. Thus,
weightings are exponentially decreasing when the older observations
are included. A multiplication of the discount factor and its comple-
ment, dampened over the duration, render the older observations less
inuential, according to the given equation:
w i w i
x^t i0 1  xt24i 0b1 and i0 1  1 11
To account for a discrepancy of the forecast value from the ob-
served value, adjusting the forecast value with absolute and relative
standard deviation modications is suggested. In general, absolute
deviation modication has proven to increase forecast accuracy [9].
For a weather variable w, the deviation (kw) of the observed value
(xkw) from its forecast value (x^w
k ) at time k is dened by the following
equation:
x x x
k xk  x^ k 12
The deviation is calculated when the predictive control strategy
starts the planning horizon, and then the calculated deviation at
time pHo is added to the forecast prole of weather variable w during
the planning horizon between pHo and pHn. It assumes that the devi-
ation constantly persists for the execution horizon. The absolute
1
The average diurnal temperature swing was around 14 F, which is almost identical
to the average diurnal temperature swing (15 F) during the cold season of 2009 in
Arcata.
178 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182

Table 1
Monthly average temperature, RH, and sky cover proles of Arcata in 2009.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tsuf 45.5 F 46.9 F 46.0 F 47.5 F 51.6 F 55.2 F 54.4 F 56.7 F 57.1 F 53.0 F 49.1 F 45.4 F
MAE [3,5] F [3,5] F [3,5] F [3,5] F [3,5] F [3,5] F [3,5] F [3, 5] F [0, 3] F [3, 5] F [0, 3] F [0, 3] F
Bias [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [3, 5] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [3, 5] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F
RH 84.2% 80.0% 82.9% 80.7% 86.5% 85.2% 90.9% 88.0% 86.1% 85.8% 83.2% 84.3%
MAE [10,20] % [10,20] % [10,20] % [10,20] % [10,20] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [10,20] % [10,20] % [10,20] % [10,20] % [10,20] %
Bias [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 15,5] [ 15, 5] [ 15, 5] [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 15, 5] [ 15, 5] [ 15, 5] [ 5,5] %
% % % % % %
Sky cover 38.1 (0.2 59.3 (0.4 54.5 (0.2 46.4 (0.2 68.7 59.9 (0.2 78.9 60.7 41.9 (0.2 48.7 (0.2 33.0 (0.4 49.6 (0.2
Frtn Crct 0.4) 0.6) 0.4) 0.4) (00.2) 0.4) (00.2) (00.2) 0.4) 0.4) 0.6) 0.4)

deviation modication to the forecasted prole x of weather variable In general, shorter projections of the NDFD XML show better fore-
w is expressed as follows: cast performances. However, the differences from 6 h projection
to 24 h projection are negligible.
w w w w
x t x^t xpH0  x^pH0 pHo tpHn 13 CV-RMSEs and MBEs of two weather variables in Las Vegas are gen-
erally lower than those in Arcata. The different climate characteris-
where x^w tics account for this result; Las Vegas is consistently hotter and
t denotes the forecasted weather variable w during the plan-
ning horizon from pHo to pHn , and xtw denotes the modied prole sunnier throughout a given year than Arcata.
by the absolute deviation modication. For both weather variables in both sites, the CV-RMSEs of the NDFD
XML are the same or lower than those of two other methods. This
8.2. Like-yesterday method with absolute deviation modication observation indicates that the NDFD XML outperforms the other
(Abs.dev.Like-yesterday) two methods in forecasting more erratically scattered factors.
For predicting ambient temperature that has a stronger characteris-
This method assumes today's weather prole would be identical tic prole than global horizontal radiation, the Abs.dev.EWMA out-
with yesterday's prole (Eq. (14)). An adjustment is also added to performs the other two methods.
compensate a discrepancy of the forecast value from the observed
value (Eq. (15)). 9. An exemplary application case for using the NDFD XML

w w
x^t xt24
w w w w
x t x^t xpH0  x^pH0 pHo tpHn
8.3. Comparisons of forecast performances
In Tables 4 and 5, prediction performances of three NDFD XML sets
of hourly temperature (Tamb) and global horizontal radiation (Ih) of
Arcata during mid-February to mid-March in 2010 are statistically an-
alyzed. Unfortunately, measurements of relative humidity are not
available for this period. The rst set consists of a 6 hour projection
forecasts (i.e., retrieving the NDFD XML every 4 h to retrieve the fore-
cast during the next 6 hour interval; pH = 6 h), the second set and the
third set consists of 12 h-intervals (pH = 12 h) and 24 h-interval fore-
casts (pH = 24 h), respectively.
Statistical analyses of the EWA with absolute deviation modica-
tion (Abs.dev.EWMA) and Like-yesterday method (Abs.dev.Like-yes-
terday) are compared for the same period. The Abs.dev.EWMA
triggers its modication at 6 pm every day, as this moment is usually
at the beginning of an unoccupied time period.
Findings through observations during the worst-case scenario sea-
son and comparison results are summarized as follows:
14 Short-term weather forecasts are more accurate than legacy
weather inputs, such as TMY2, for model-based building and HVAC
control applications. Based on better forecast performance of the
15 NDFD XML shown above, we would like to highlight the potential of
improving daily thermal load prole predictions for buildings.
It is well-known that having an accurate daily thermal load prole
prediction is a prerequisite to composing a high performance control
portfolio for a broad range of energy systems. Energy saving control
applications, in particular those utilizing thermal storage, will benet
from using the NDFD XML. Having more accurate thermal load prole
predictions allows for more precise control over thermal storage sys-
tems, resulting in energy and cost savings.
9.1. Process of incorporating the NDFD XML into the building energy sim-
ulation (BES)
To replace conventional weather les in simulation with the NDFD
XML, a series of weather variables written in the XML le needs to be
parsed. A Java XML DOM (The W3C Document Object Model) parser
is employed for demonstration. Then the parsed proles are passed
over to a suite of the simulation frameworks. Fig. 2 describes the pro-
cess of importing weather forecast data originated from the NDFD.
The BES and TRNSYS facilitate this process inspired by 1) modular-
ity to manipulate each component and 2) congurability with

Table 2
Monthly average temperature, RH, and sky cover proles of Las Vegas in 2009.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tsuf 50.7 F 56.1 F 60.1 F 66.5 F 84.0 F 83.9 F 94.9 F 91.2 F 86.4 F 67.3 F 58.9 F 45 F
MAE [0, 3] F [0, 3] F [3, 5] F [3, 5] F [0, 3] F [3, 5] F [3, 5] F [0, 3] F [0, 3] F [3, 5] F [0, 3] F [3, 5] F
Bias [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F [ 3, 3] F
RH 37.5% 32.2% 21.6% 21.2% 14.9% 19.0% 18.0% 14.9% 17.4% 21.3% 23.4% 40.8%
MAE [10,20] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] % [0,10] %
Bias [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] % [ 5,5] %
Sky cover Frtn Crct 28.7 43.6 34.6 35.1 42.6 51.3 45.2 25.9 23.3 29.1 35.0 48.6
(0.20.4) (0.20.4) (00.2) (0.20.4) (0.20.4) (0.20.4) (0.20.4) (0.20.4) (0.40.6) (00.2) (00.2) (0.20.4)
 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182 179

Table 3 Table 4
Calculated CV-RMSs (upper) and MBEs (lower) of 24 h projected NDFD and CV-RMSs CV-RMSEs of three forecast models for Arcata (upper) and Las Vegas (lower).
and MBEs reported by benchmark forecast models in literature.
6h 12 h 24 h Abs.dev.EWMA Abs.dev.
24 h proj. 24 h proj. Abs.dev.EWMA Hybrid Sinusoidal projection projection projection pH = 24 h@18 h Like-
NDFD in NDFD in in 11 world- method in in London NDFD NDFD XML NDFD XML yesterday
Arcata during Arcata dur- wide locations Leicestershire, and XML
warm season ing cold sea- [10] UK [2] Garston,
Temperature 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.12
(MarAug) son (Sep UK [9]
0.07 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.09
Feb)
Global 0.71 0.76 0.78 0.97 1.29
Tsuf [F] 00.11 00.11 0.2 0.0061 horizontal 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.50 0.57
0.050.09 0.070.09 0.13 0.00 radiation
0.0083
0.001
RH [%] 00.25 0.120.25 0.11 (Not
As conrmed in the previous statistical analysis in Section 8.3, glob-
0.190.06 0.180.06 0.07 reported)
(Not reported) al horizontal radiation forecasted by the NDFD XML was closer to
the actual observations than the Abs.dev.EWMA predictions
(Fig. 13). This tendency recurs through the entire simulation period.
However, due to the relatively small portion of the heating load that
external programming and communication applications, such as Java the global horizontal radiation in Arcata during this period (109 W/
Runtime Environment and SOAP applications. After the parsed pro- m 2 on average) represents, the heating load predicted by the NDFD
les have gone through quality-controls (e.g., they are cleaned and XML was not always a better match to the actual heating load than
missing parts are lled), the TRNSYS Radiation Processor and the Abs.dev.EWMA predictions.
Data Reader components take the conditioned time series weather The forecast accuracy of ambient temperatures is signicant when
proles and then combine and convert them into an hourly weather predicting heating load proles. It further implies that, during the
data series, which can be used for various energy analysis studies, summer for the areas where solar radiation provides a larger contri-
such as insolation on an inclined surface. bution to the heat gain, the forecast accuracy of the global horizon-
tal radiation will be more important in predicting the cooling load
prole. In this case, a forecast by the NDFD XML would result in
9.2. Exemplary load prole predictions using weather forecast models more accurate cooling load prole predictions.
and their performance comparisons Any method that forecasts the highest and lowest temperatures
closer to the actual extreme temperatures results in better predic-
Predictions of heating load proles using the Abs.Dev.EWMA and tion of building load proles (Figs. 12 and 14).
the NDFD XML with 24 h projection during the same worstcase sce- As found on March 11th and 12th in Fig. 12, when actual tempera-
nario period (from mid-February to mid-March) were investigated as ture proles were completely irregular, as well as out of their typi-
test cases. A large-sized ofce building (4161 m 2) in Arcata with cal ranges, the forecast by the NDFD XML outperforms that of the
twenty ve thermal zones was chosen as a test building. The average Abs.dev.EWMA in accounting for actual sporadic temperature
building mass, which consists of exterior walls, interior walls, roof, proles.
and oors, was around 700 kg/m 2. The occupancy prole and lighting
schedules follow a typical ofce building prole (7 am5 pm with
1 hour lunch break at noon), and peak building occupancy was 0.1 10. Discussions on uncertainty of weather forecasts
people per m 2. Occupants were assumed to be typical ofce workers
(i.e., seated and light working), which corresponds to 120 W of heat Statistical analysis and the application example of the building
gain. Computers were assumed to consume 140 W, and the peak load prole prediction using three forecast methods conrmed that
lighting power density was 20 W per square meter. The heating set short-term weather forecasts using the NDFD XML are more capable
point temperature was 20 C during occupied hours, and 18 C was of predicting erratic and sporadic characteristics of weather than
the setback temperature during unoccupied hours. the other two historical data-driven weather forecast methods.
The predicted heating load proles by the two methods were Specically,
compared with heating load proles simulated with the actual
weather observations during the worstcase scenario period. An in- i) The proposed forecast method using the NDFD XML performs bet-
teresting result was found in that the heating load prole predicted ter in forecasting global horizontal radiation, which is more erratic
with the Abs.dev.EWMA better matched the heating load prole than in forecasting ambient temperature, and
with actual weather data, with an CV-RMSE of 1.27, than that with ii) Although the Abs.dev.EWMA forecast outperforms the NDFD XML
the NDFD XML (CV-RMSE of 1.35). A case from Mar. 8th to Mar. forecast when the prole of the ambient temperature is close to its
13th was taken as a sample study (Figs. 1214), and further analysis characteristic prole, the NDFD XML outperforms the other two
and the summaries follow. methods when ambient temperature behaves unconventionally.

Fig. 11. Erratic cloud state and global horizontal radiation in Arcata during the observed period.
180 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182

Table 5
MBEs of three forecast models for Arcata (upper) and Las Vegas (lower).

6h 12 h 24 h Abs.dev.EWMA Abs.dev.
projection projection projection pH = 24 h@18 h Like-
NDFD NDFD XML NDFD XML yesterday
XML

Temperature 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.00

0.03 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.01
Global 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.03
horizontal 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.01
radiation

Previous studies about historical data-driven methods have taken
a superposition approach in order to improve forecast performance of
the moving average method. This approach scales the forecasted pat-
tern up to the extreme values provided from the external online fore-
cast in order to account for unexpected characteristics of weather
[3,4,9]. However, it should be noted that the online forecast may not
always be able to catch all of the unexpected characteristics of weath-
er. For example, on March 10th in Fig. 12, the Abs.dev.EWMA makes a
forecast of daily highest temperature closer to the actual highest tem-
perature, while the highest temperature forecasted by the NDFD XML
is 4 C lower. If the forecasted prole of the Abs.dev.EWMA is scaled
down to the maximum temperature reported by the NDFD XML, the
resulting predicted heating load would be higher. This discrepancy
is due to the sporadic characteristics of weather forecasts.
A recommendation drawn from this observation is that short-term
weather forecasts should be treated as containing a scenario uncer-
tainty due to its origination and fatal sporadic characteristics. The sce-
nario uncertainty in weather forecasts, then, should be described
while formulating robust control problems. This will be discussed in
the following section.
Fig. 13. Comparisons of global horizontal radiation proles from Mar. 8th to Mar. 13th
in 2010.
reduce erratic uncertainty. For instance, erratic uncertainty in short-
term weather forecasts can be effectively covered by multiple weath-
er scenarios.
In generic modeling problems, scenario uncertainty indicates a
range of possible model outcomes, but the driving forces leading to
these outcomes are not clearly distinguishable. Additionally, these
outcomes fall under a wide range of discrete possibilities [33]. There-
in, scenario uncertainty can be represented by discretizing multiple
series of events. If mathematically dened, scenario uncertainty is a
three-dimensional vector. For instance, Fig. 15 shows different types
of data with the third axis. Since the series of events are independent,
it is more appropriate to represent them with a set of individual time
series proles. Probability mass function (pmf) describes a probabili-
ty in which discrete time series proles will occur. For example, a set
of scenarios can be represented with a pmf which contains proba-
bilities of three occurring scenarios {1, 2, 3} as written in
Eq. (16-1) and (16-2).

10.1. Scenario uncertainty of weather forecasts f x Pr x PrfsS : s g : SR 16  1

Scenarios are used to identify uncertainty related to the external
environment of a system (typically future environments) and its ef-
fects on the system [31]. A scenario, therefore, means a likely de-
scription of how the system and/or its key driving forces may
develop in the future, i.e., what might happen instead of what will
happen. Specically for the domain of building performance, de Wit
classied scenario uncertainty as the outdoor climate conditions and
occupation proles [32].
Just as uncertainty is often referred to in generic modeling prob-
lems, scenario uncertainty also holds characteristics that are both im-
precise and erratic. The models that adhere to the underlying physics
and are rigorously tested reduce imprecise uncertainty. However, as a
scenario is more dependent on factors external to the model, it is
more vulnerable to erratic uncertainty. Although it is almost impossi-
ble to prevent erratic uncertainty, if scenarios are well-devised in cap-
turing what would and may happen, and also parts of scenarios are
capable enough to forecast future sporadic events, then they would
8 9
< 0:25 x f 1 g =
f x 0:5 x f 2 g f1 ; ; n g 16  2
: ;
0:25 x f 3 g
10.2. Scenario robust optimization
The purpose of model-based controls is to obtain a control solu-
tion that is robust over any external environment. An optimization
process, which is generally responsible for mathematically deriving
a series of the most tted solutions in given conditions, therefore
needs to take into account multiple scenarios. In the context of this
study, multiple scenarios imply a set of hybrid weather forecast sce-
narios developed in different philosophies and mechanisms, e.g., on-
line weather sources and historical data- driven sources. One
benet of this hybrid approach is that it would prevent serviceability
issues (Section 3.3), and also reduce uncertainty by coarser resolution

Fig. 12. Comparisons of temperature proles from Mar. 8th to Mar. 13th in 2010. Fig. 14. Comparisons of heating load proles from Mar. 8th to Mar. 13th in 2010.
 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
Fig. 15. Representation of scenario uncertainty with two weather scenarios.
of the grid (Section 3.2) as historical data-driven sources are site-
specic. This section introduces scenario robust optimization where
scenario uncertainty is described for model-based control problems.
Scenario robust optimization formulates a mathematical goal pro-
gramming problem under scenario-based descriptions of the problem
data. A goal of the scenario robust optimization is to nd a series of
solutions that are progressively less sensitive to realizations of the
model data from a given scenario. To emphasize the relationship be-
tween model data (i.e., variables) and uncertainty w under different
scenarios, a general scenario robust control problem is described in
the next equations. The control problem is formulated based on ro-
bust optimization presented by [34], and then modied with respect
to the context of this study.
   
Minimize x; u1 ; ; u p w1 ; ; w 17  1
Subject to : Ax b 17:2
B x C u w e For all 17:3 TRNSYS simulation models with {Cu, Du } i in each scenario at
The following terms introduced in Eq. (17-1) are explained as
below.
Scenario : A set of scenarios = {1, , } is introduced. The
probability that a scenario occurs is dened as p (= 1 p = 1).
Design variable x: x R n denotes a design variable whose value is
not dependent on uncertain factors. Design variables cannot be ad-
justed once a specic realization of the data is observed. Eq. (17.2) de-
notes the structural constraints, coefcients of which {A, b} are xed.
Control variable u: u R n denotes a control variable whose value
is subject to adjustment when the uncertainty factors (w) are ob-
served in the problem. A set of realizations of coefcients of the con-
trol constraints {B, C, e} in Eq. (17.3) is associated with each
scenario and the coefcients are subject to uncertainty, w.
Optimization objective and penalty p: In scenario robust optimiza-
tion, a general objective function of a deterministic optimization prob-
lem (x,u) = cT x + dT u (c and d are constant) becomes a random
variable under scenario (i.e., c T x + dT u). Hence there is no longer
a single choice for the aggregated objective . Instead we can use the
mean value p(C Tx + dTu). The second term p(w1, , w) is a fea-
sibility penalty function. It is used to penalize violations of the control
constraints under some scenarios. To explain the signicance of optimi-
zation objective and penalty p in the scenario robust optimization
problem, two robustness terms are characterized. These features differ-
entiate themselves from general deterministic optimization problems
and traditional stochastic linear problems [34].
181
Solution robust: The solution of Eq. (17) will be robust with re-
spect to optimality, if it remains close to optimal for any realization
of the scenario . This is usually formulated as an optimization objec-
tive in stochastic linear optimization problems. The rst term () in
Eq. (17-1) measures this optimality robustness. When there is only
one scenario, = 1 corresponds to the optimization objective in gen-
eral deterministic optimization problems.
Model robust: The solution of Eq. (17) will be also robust with re-
spect to feasibility, if it remains almost feasible for any realization of
the scenario . The penalty term (p) in Eq. (17-1) is a measure of
this feasibility robustness. The weight () is used to trade-off solu-
tions for choosing the desired model robustness.
A real world application of the scenario optimization for controls
of thermal energy storage (TES) is showcased below in Fig. 16. A for-
mulation of the mathematical problems and analysis of this example
will be explored in further detail in a subsequent study dealing with
the development of robust model-based control solutions under un-
certainty [35]. A set of control variables for the TES consists of charge
ow rate (Cu) and discharge ow rate (Du). The optimizer evaluates
every iteration i, then the summation of cost J i is fed back to the op-
timizer. In the summing junction , the relationship between optimi-
zation objective and penalty p introduced in Eq. (17-1) is explicitly
dened. Here the value for weight balances optimality robustness
and feasibility robustness of the resulting control solution. Finally,
the optimizer nds a control solution {Cu, Du }robust with the smallest
operating cost J, while the resulting control solution is robust (i.e.,
close to optimal and almost feasible) for multiple weather scenarios.
Fig. 16. Scenario robust optimization evaluates the simulation model under all scenar-
ios and eventually results in robust control solution urobust.
182 S.H. Kim, G. Augenbroe / Automation in Construction 27 (2012) 170182
11. Conclusions
This study has found that short-term weather forecasts by the
NDFD XML can be a useful replacement for the historical data-
driven weather forecast methods. Its reliability, availability, increased
functionality, and applicability render it more suitable for high per-
formance model-based control applications.
This study has also proven that short-term weather forecasts of
the NDFD XML is capable of forecasting erratic and sporadic charac-
teristics of weather with better accuracy than legacy historical data-
driven forecast methods.
Since short-term weather forecasts possess strong sporadic and
discrete characteristics in nature, they should be considered as
possessing scenario uncertainty. In order to increase the robustness
of the model-based control over such qualities of the weather fore-
cast, we recommend that the scenario uncertainty in weather
forecasts be properly described when formulating robust control
problems. To do so, scenario robust optimization for model-based
control applications must take into account multiple and hybrid
short-term weather sources, including both the historical data-
driven methods and the NDFD XML forecast.
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