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CHAPTER 5
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
5.1 INTRODUCTION
5.1.1 Models
Models are powerful tools by which the designers of waste treatment systems can
investigate the performance of a number of potentials under a variety of conditions. The
aim of this part of thesis work is to develop a mathematical model on paper and pulp mill
wastewater in combination with domestic wastewater in correlation with effective
microorganism using regression analysis and artificial neural network analysis. The data
obtained from the study involving various parameters like hydraulic retention time,
organic loading rate, sludge loading rate, influent pH, VSS/TS ratio, influent COD,
effluent COD, are considered as the explanatory variables and the percentage of COD
removal and methane production were considered as response variable using these data, a
multiple regression model and ANN model were prepared.
5.2 REGRESSION
to estimate one variable or the dependent variable from the other variables or the
independent variables. In other words we can estimate the value of one variable, provided
the values of other variable given. The statistical method which helps to estimate the
unknown value of one variable from the known values of the related variables is called as
regression.
According to Wallis and Robert (2001), It is often more important to find out
what the relation actually is, in order to estimate or predict one variable (the dependent
variable), and statistical technique appropriate in such a case is called Regression
Analysis.
Edokapayi and Clement Aghatise (2008) reported that the physical and chemical
characteristics of the five stations along a 5km stretch of Benin river Southern Nigeria.
The results of multiple regression analysis carried out for each station using conductivity,
dissolved oxygen, Calcium, Phosphate and nitrate-nitrogen as dependent variables.
Conductivity was significantly influenced by other environmental conditions at the study
stations (P< 0.0001, 0.0003). Dissolved oxygen was significantly influenced by other
environmental factors at stations I (P<0.0007) and V (P<0.002) and nitrate- nitrogen was
significantly influenced in stations N( P<0.026) and V(P<0.0007).
Venkatesh et al (2009) reported that the r- value varies in the range of 0.0608 to
0.9969 depending on the set of parameters considered for analysis. The correlation values
above 0.94 were selected for analysis. The highest correlation is between EC and TDS.
High positive correlations between Turbidity and TSS, BOD and COD, EC and chlorides
were also observed.
of X and the corresponding conditional mean of Y, denoted E (Y/X), and has been used to
describe non-linear phenomena.
ANNs have been proved successful in solving many civil and structural
engineering, waste water treatment and rain fall, run off modeling problems. ANN
structure designed to mimic the information processing functions of a network of neurons
similar to the brain (Guru Prasad, 2007).
Figure 5.4 Correlation between estimated value and measured value for HUB1
Figure 5.5 Predicted value and observed value for Regression Coefficient for HUB 1
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The above Table 5.1 shows that the removal of TCOD % for the reactors are
efficient as the R2 value are above 0.9 and the HUB3 and HUB4 i.e. PPW and DW with
and without EM combinations are found to be efficient as the R2 value found to be above
0.99 and 0.95, out of this ANN model study.
(i) Start up phase and aafter start up conditions and optimization of HUASB
reactor
(ii) Efficiency of HUASB reactor among varying HRT.
The main aim in this study is to create a multiple linear regression model for the
dependent variable COD removal (%) and methane production on several independent
variables such as Organic Loading rate, Influent pH , Influent Inlet VFA, alkalinity. The
multiple regression equation for the dependent variable Y on the above independent
variable was fit using the SPSS software through forward stepwise regression method.
A Multiple regression equation for all the reactors using EXCEL software is
furnished below. Forward stepwise regression method was followed to find out the
significance of various factors (Independent variables) for COD removal (dependent
variables.
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Figure 5.7 Comparison of observed and predicted TCOD removal (Y1) based on OLR
(X2) HUB 2
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*: Significant at 5% level.
*: Significant at 5% level.
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Figure 5.8 Comparison of observed and predicted methane production rate (Y2)
based on OLR (X2) HUB 3.
Figure 5.9 Comparison of observed and predicted methane production rate (Y2) based
on influent TCOD (X1) HUB 4.
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The consolidated regression equation obtained from the Table 4.9 to 4.12 and also
from Table 5.2 to 5.5, with its efficient R2 valued models in each reactor is tabulated in
Table 5.6 for ready reference as follows.
Figure 5.6 to 5.9, depict the comparision of observed and predicted values
obtained from the regression model.
From the Table 5.6, it could be assessed that HUB 4 reactor i.e. PPW and DWW
without EM , seems to be significant in both influent TCOD Vs % TCOD removal as well
OLR Vs TCOD % removal as R2 values are above 0.92. Similarly, the HUB 1 is also
showing consistent values of R2 of about 0.89. HUB 3 shows % of TCOD removal with
respect to influent TCOD as well methane production improved version. HUB2 fails to
maintain consistency factors with wide variation to TCOD removal and methane
production rates.
By and large, the treatment of pulp and paper mill wastewater treatment is proved
to be efficient by adding EM alone as in the HUB 1 reactor and while treating with
DWW, without EM is efficient as in HUB 4 from the conclusion arrived the multiple
regression analysis.
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Table 5.6 Consolidated regression statement for all the reactor using regression method
R2
Equation Remarks
Value
Influent TCOD (X1) and
Y1 = 49.178+0.029 (x1)-6.3E-06(x1)2+3.34E-10(x1)3
HUB1 TCOD Removal 0.875
Efficiency (Y1).
Influent TCOD (X1) and
Y2 = 0.155+5.05E-05(x1)-1.3E-09(x1)2-1E-12(x1)3
HUB1 Methane Production rate 0.894
(Y2).