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@JEMBEN

HOW FORGOTTEN KNOWLEDGE WILL


H E L P Y O U AV O I D R E G R E T TA B L E
DECISION
Regret a decision !

Or

Scared to be wrong?
Optimistic biased decision!

O U R L I K E L I H O O D E S T I M AT I O N ?
IT WILL TURN OUT FINE

AIR

W AT E R

T E C H N I C A L LY T H E G L A S S I S A L W AY S F U L L
"Remarriage is the triumph of Hope over
Experience"

SAMUEL JOHNSON
O P T I M I S M B I A S FA C T O R S

Desired end State

Me versus the others

Cognitive mechanism

Overall mood
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift
and the rational mind is a faithful servant.

We have created a society that honors the


servant
and has forgotten the gift.

- ALBERT EINSTEIN
Which technology is the best to invest
now?
"THE NUMBER OF TRANSISTORS
O N I N T E G R AT E D C I R C U I T S
D O U B L E S A P P R O X I M AT E LY
EVERY TWO YEARS"

1975 - INTEL CORP

MOORES LAW
LAW OF DISRUPTION

E X P O N E N T I A L V S N AT U R A L
GROWTH
T E C H N O L O G Y C A PA C I T Y V S I N T E G R A T I O N C O M P L E X I T Y

EROOMS LAW MOORES LAW

NUMBER OF DRUGS PER BILLION $ SPENT IN R&D


Which technology is the best to invest
now?

I N F O R M AT I O N S Y S T E M S D O U B L E S C A PA C I T Y F O R T H E S A M E P R I C E
EVERY TWO YEARS"

"How long do we want to maintain


the product using this technology? "
How much Could I Outsource?
T H E C O M M U N I C AT I O N
EFFICIENCY DECREASE
E X P O N E N T I A L LY
W I T H T H E P H Y S I C A L D I S TA N C E
BETWEEN THE PERSONS.

1 9 7 7 - O P E N S PA C E

ALLENS CURVE
C O M M U N I C AT I O N E F F I C I E N C Y
VS
P E R C E I V E D D I S TA N C E

W E E K LY I N T E R A C T I O N

D I S TA N C E
THE
DISTRIBUTION
TRADE-OFF

OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
USING IN HOUSE MANAGEMENT
How much Could I Outsource?

T H E C O M M U N I C AT I O N E F F I C I E N C Y D E C R E A S E E X P O N E N T I A L LY
W I T H T H E P H Y S I C A L D I S TA N C E B E T W E E N T H E P E R S O N S .

How much effort


are you ready to dedicate
to make outsourcing work?
How long do you need to get
this done?
" W O R K E X PA N D S
S O A S T O F I L L T H E T I M E AVA I L A B L E
FOR ITS COMPLETION"

1958 - THE PURSUIT OF PROGRESS

PA R K I N S O N S L A W
V O I D A S A S E PA R A B L E D I S TA N C E
Horror Vacui
This is important,
but you have a month to finish it

I will start right away

TIME MANAGEMENT BIASES

STUDENT SYNDROME
Smarter to wait
until the last minute!
Just make a big show
of how hard you are working
to meet the unreasonable
deadline.
THE TIME-BOX
EFFECT
How long do you need to get
this done?

" W O R K E X PA N D S
S O A S T O F I L L T H E T I M E AVA I L A B L E
FOR ITS COMPLETION"

Do you have any time constrain?


What is your deadline?
Tell me when I could expect to
get this done as well?
THE LEAD TIME IS
PROPORTIONAL
TO THE NUMBER OF ITEMS IN
THE SYSTEM
AND THEIR TIME IN THE
SYSTEM.

1961 - QUEUING THEORY

LITTLES LAW
EXPEDITE COST

Ready Done

Expedite Cost = Delay cycle time


Tell me when I could expect to
get this done as well?

THE LEAD TIME IS PROPORTIONAL


TO THE NUMBER OF ITEMS IN THE SYSTEM
AND THEIR TIME IN THE SYSTEM.

How urgent is it compare to


what is currently in progress?
How complete are you?
How far along are you?
"THERE IS NEVER ENOUGH
T I M E T O D O I T R I G H T,
B U T T H E R E I S A L W AY S E N O U G H
TIME TO DO IT OVER. "

PA R E T O P R I N C I P L E

MESKIMENS LAW
COMPLAINTS PER PRODUCT C U M U L AT I V E %
Perfect is the enemy of good

DO
IS B NE
ETT
THA ER
PER N
FEC
T

- F R A N C O I S V O LTA I R E
AGILE FLUENCY

FOCUS ON
VA L U E
How complete are you?
How far along are you?

" T H E R E I S N E V E R E N O U G H T I M E T O D O I T R I G H T,
B U T T H E R E I S A L W AY S E N O U G H T I M E T O D O I T O V E R . "

Could you help me clarify what


we consider complete?
How many people do you
need to get this Done?
How many people do you
need to get this Done?
Faster!
" A D D I N G M A N P O W E R T O A L AT E
SOFTWARE PROJECT
M A K E S I T L AT E R "

1975 - THE MYTHICAL MAN MONTH

BROOKS LAW
KNOWLEDGE WORKER

T H E H U M A N VA R I AT I O N A N D
C O L L A B O R AT I O N C O M P L E X I T Y
A J O B T H AT O N E P E R S O N
CAN COMPLETE
I N 1 0 D AY S

NUMBER OF TEAM MEMBERS


Does our intuition fail us?
How many people do you
need to get this Done
Faster?

" A D D I N G M A N P O W E R T O A L AT E S O F T W A R E P R O J E C T
M A K E S I T L AT E R "

What are you ready to trade off,


scope?
How could you improve our
customer experience ?
" O R G A N I S AT I O N S A R E
CONSTRAINED TO PRODUCE
DESIGNS
WHICH ARE COPIES OF THEIR
C O M M U N I C AT I O N
STRUCTURES"

1968 - MODULAR PROGRAMMING

C O N W AY S L A W
SOCIAL ORGANISATION

C O M M U N I C AT I O N
STRUCTURES
Scaling and UX challenges
EVERYONE IS SCALING WHY NOT ME?
How could you improve our
customer experience ?

" O R G A N I S AT I O N S A R E C O N S T R A I N E D T O P R O D U C E D E S I G N S
W H I C H A R E C O P I E S O F T H E I R C O M M U N I C AT I O N S T R U C T U R E S "

"How could we remove some


Organisation silos to work better
together?"
WHEN YOU MAKE A DECISION
MAKE SURE YOU ARE GROUNDED

G R AV I T Y
Its not only a good idea. Its a Law
SELECTIVE LEARNING

W H AT A P P L I E S T O M E
FIRST!
if i have seen further it is by
standing on the shoulders of
giants

-ISAAC NEWTON
MOORES LAW ALLENS CURVE

PA R K I N S O N S L A W LITTLES LAW MESKIMENS LAW

BROOKS LAW C O N W AY S L A W