Lesson 1(Understanding the Point Estimate of a Population Mean)

In Statistics lessons, the mean and the standard deviation are used to described a set of scores. As is often the case, scores come from
sample data. If these scores result from random samples, inferences may be made about the population where the sample comes from.
Point Estimate is the final result when you compute the mean of the means for all samples.
X x = (Read: the mean of the means equals myu.)
Estimate is a value, or a range of values, that approximates the population value.
Estimates are sample values computed from sample information.
Estimation is the process of determining parameter values.
Example 1
Dave wanted to know the shearing strength, in lbs, of a particular kind of rivet sold in a hardware store. He tested 40 rivets and got the following
results.
520 512 510 518 490 513 598 510 485 510
512 500 516 532 512 455 500 512 509 515
483 512 520 501 487 498 496 500 518 512
415 510 515 498 515 520 497 502 490 508

X = 507.64 lb. This mean of the samples is an estimate of the population parameter , the true average shearing strength in lbs. The
sample value of 507.64 is used to describe a particular characteristic, the shearing strength in lbs. If, indeed, this average strength of the rivets in
hardware, then it becomes a basis for decision to buy or not to buy rivets from the store.
Population parameters are usually unknown fixed values.
1. a number that describes the average . We call this point estimate, or
2. a range of values that contains the true population value. This number is called interval estimate.
In general,
A point estimate is a specific value of a population parameter.
An interval estimate is a range of values that may contain the parameter of a population.
Estimates can be problematic because they provide only limited information. But this can be addressed by ensuring that they are unbiased and
less variable though randomization, that is, the sample yields the estimate is a random sample from target population.
Example 2
From a random selection of ten groups the weights in kilograms of 80 preschool children in a Barangay child care center were obtained.
Find the mean weight of all preschool children in that Barangay.
Column Column Column Column Column Column Column Column Column Column
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group Group
A B C D E F G H I J
20 25 19 22 25 21 19 23 25 23
18 21 23 25 19 26 28 20 19 20
25 26 15 14 19 18 20 18 22 24
22 25 18 19 20 23 21 20 23 19
18 17 20 22 23 21 19 15 16 20
23 24 21 20 19 19 20 22 25 20
20 22 23 21 19 26 23 22 25 20
19 20 18 18 20 22 20 19 20 22

Solution:
Xc1 = refers to the mean of the entries in Column 1.
Provide the missing parts of the solution. The teacher will ask the students to compute for the remaining means.
STEP 1: Find the mean of each random sample.
In this solution, the column means were obtained.
20 18 25 22 18 23 20 19 165
20.625
8 8

____________; _____________; __________

___________; _____________; ___________

___________; ____________; ___________

STEP 2: Compute the mean of the means or
STEP 3: Interpret the result.
ANSWERS
= 20.9375 or 21kg
= 21 kg
Based on the ten random sample groups, the mean weight of all preschool children in the barangay child care center is 21kg.
Note: The mean of the means is equal to population mean

Lesson 2 (Computing Interval Estimates for the Population Mean)

An interval estimate is also called a confidence interval.
The z values are also called confidence coefficient or critical values.
When n is large, the CLT (Central Limit Theorem) is applicable, and the z-test is also applicable.

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 + z/ 2
The general computing formula for confidence intervals for large samples is
X z /2 ( )
n
< < X
n ( ) which may be

written as X z /2
( )
n . In determining the interval estimate for the parameter , the value, ( )
X z /2
n is called the lower

confidence boundary, and the other value ( )
X +z / 2
n is called the upper confidence boundary.

In general formula for a confidence interval, the term z / 2

( n ) is called margin of error, denoted by b E, which is defined as the

maximum difference between the observed sample mean and the true value of the population mean. Thus, another way of writing the formula for

finding the confidence interval for the population parameter is X E< < X + E where E = z /2 ( n ). When is not known, the

sample standard deviation s is used to approximate . Th formula for is modified into E = z /2

( n ) z ( sn )
/2 .

Example 1
A random sample of 100 students are asked how much they spend for a meal during weekdays. The average expense is found to be Php
75. Past experience has revealed that the population deviation is Php 5. Find the point estimate and the interval estimate of the population mean ,
using the 95% confidence level.
Solution
The interval estimation procedure is summarized in the following six-step process.
Step 1: Describe the population parameter of interest.
The parameter of interest is the mean of the population where the sample comes from.
Step 2: Specify the confidence criteria.
The sample information consists of n = 100 and = 5
By the CLT, the sample is normally distributed; z-test is applicable.
Step 3: Select the level confidence and corresponding coefficient or critical values.
95% confidence, or = 0.05
Step 4: Select sample data and find the point estimate.
The point estimate of the population mean is 75.
Step 5: Find E and compute the interval estimate.

E= z /2
( n ) = 1.96
5
( 100 )= 0.98
Interval estimate
X E< < X + E

75 0.98 <75+0.98
74.02 to 75.98
Step 6: Described the results.
We can say with 95% confidence that interval between 74.02 and 75.98 contains the population mean based on a sample
size of 100. Expenses on meals range from approximately Php 74 to Php 76.

Lesson 3 (Understanding Interval Estimates for the Population Mean when is

Unknown)
s

1. The general expression for the confidence interval when is unknown is given by X t
( )
n and the distribution of values is
called t distribution.
2. The degrees of freedom, denoted by df, are the number of values that are free to vary after a sample statistic has been compute, and they
tell us the specific curve to use when a distribution consists of a family of curves.

3. E=
t /2 ( sn )
4. The formula for computing t interval estimates for is as follows.
s s
X t
( )
n
< < X +t
n ( ) or X E< < X + E

Example 1

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 Given: n = 20; X = 82.5; s = 3. The parent population is normally distributed. Use the 5% confidence level to find (1) the point
estimate; (2) the error E; and (3) the interval estimate .
Solution
Step 1: The parameter of interest is the mean of the population where the sample comes from.
Step 2: The sample Information that consist of size n = 20 and s = 3 comes from a parent population that is normally distribute.
The test statistic is t-test
Step 3: At 95% confidence, = 0.05, df = 19
Critical z values: 2.903

Step 4: Given: X =82.5 n = 20, s = 3.

The point estimate of the population mean is 82.5

Step 5: E = t /2
( sn )
3
= 2.093 ( 20 )
= 2.093 ( 0.67 )
= 1.40
Interval Estimate
s s
X t
n ( )
< < X +t
n ( ) or X E< < X + E

So, 82.5 1.40 = 81.1 (lower boundary) and 82.5 + 1.40 = (upper boundary) [ 81.1< <82.5 ]
Step 6: Results
1. The point estimate of the population mean is 82.5
2. The error E is 1.40
3. We can say with 95% confidence that the interval between 81.1 and 83.9 contains the population mean based on a sample size of
20.
Lesson 4 (Computing the point Estimate of the Population Proportion p)
1. A proportion is fraction expression where the favorable response is in the numerator ad the total number respondents is in the
denominator. The basic operation involves division. Thus, the result is a decimal value that can be expressed as percent.
Number of desired customers
2. Sample proportion: ^p =
Number of sample elements
x
3. For sample proportion ^p= and q^ =1 ^p
n

4. The estimator of population proportion p is ^p .

5. The mean of the sampling distribution of ^p is p; that is, ^p is the unbiased estimator of p.

6. The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of ^p is

^p q^
n ; that is, p =
pq
n , where q^ =1 ^p

Example 1
In a job satisfaction survey among faculty members in a university, 400 employees were asked if they were satisfied with their jobs. There
were 205 who responded YES. W
hat proportion of the population is this? What proportion responded NO?
Step 1: What proportion of the teacher are satisfied with their jobs?
Step 2: X = 205 an n = 400; where X is the number of respondents who indicated YES.
Step 3: Use ^p to represent the proportion of YES responses.

Use q ^ to represent the proportion of NO responses.

x 205
^p= = =0.513 0.51 and q^ =1 ^p=10.51=0.49
n 400
Step 4: The proportion of YES responses is 0.51 This means 51% of the respondents answered YES and the proportion of NO responses is 0.49 or
49%. Almost half of the faculty members are not satisfied with their jobs. The university management should look into this embark on a program that
will energize all employees.

Lesson 5 and 6 (Exploring Interval Estimate and Making Inferences from a

Population Proportion)
Population Proportion is the proportion (or percentage) of a population that has a specific attribute.

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Standard Deviation of the sampling distribution of ^p is givenby p=
pq
n , where q = 1 p.

The margin of error E for the confidence interval for a population proportion is E=z /2
^p q^
n
The formula for computing a large sample confidence interval for a population proportion p is

^p - z
2 p^ q^
n <p<
^p + z
2 p^ q^
n or p z
2
^p q^
n or ^pE< p< ^p + E

Example 1
A survey of 1000 students shows that 780 trust the College Dean. Compute a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all
students who trust the College Dean.
Step 1. The parameter of interest is the mean proportion p of all students who trust the College Dean.
Step 2. The sample size of 1000 is normally distributed by the CLT.
The test statistic is the p.
Step 3. Confidence level: 95% and =0.05
Confidence coefficients: ________-_________
Step 4. X=780 and n=1000
Points estimate of p
x 780
P= ^p = = =0.78
n 1000

Step 5. q^ =1- ^p -0.78=0.22

Next, substitute the value of n, p and q in the formula to find the maximum error of estimate.

E= z
2 p^ q^
n = 1.96

( .78 ) (.22)
1000
=1.96 ( 0.0131 )=0.03

Then, compute the interval estimate

For the lower limit

^p - z
2 p^ q^
n = 0.78-0.03=0.75 or 75%
For the upper limit

^p + z
2 p^ q^
n 0.78+0.03=0.81 or 81%
Step 6. With 95% confidence, we state that the interval from 75% to 81% contains the true percentage of all students who trust the
College Dean.
Example 2
In a survey of 500 random households at Santa Maria Village, mothers have been asked if they use cell phones to communicate. There
are 376 who have said YES. Use a 95% confidence to estimate the proportion of all mothers who use the cell phone to communicate.
Example 3
The registrar of a university has conducted a pre-survey of selected courses in the university. Of 850 randomly selected students, 450
have said they like Science course. With 95% confidence, estimate the proportion of all students who like Science course.

These assumptions are made for finding a confidence interval for a population proportion:
a. The sample is a random sample
b. The conditions for binomial experiment are satisfied.

Lesson 7 (Understanding Confidence Level and Sample Size)

When we consider sample size, there are two things to consider: confidence and the narrowness of the interval. Recall that the computing formula in
determining sample size is derived from the formula in determining sample size is derived for the formula of the margin of error E, Where E=

z
2
( n )
We can perform algebraic operations on the formula to derive the value of n, our notation for sample size.
2
( z )( ) z ( )
Step 1. E =

2

n
Step 4. ( n)
2
=
(( ) )
2

E
2

(( ) )
z ( )
z ( ) n =
Step 2. E = ( n = 2 Step 5. 2

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Step 3. n =
( z )( )

2
Thus, the formula in determining the maximum sample needed when estimating the population mean is n =
E
2
z ( )
(( ) )
2

E
To determine the sample size for finding the confidence interval for a proportion, we derive the computing formula also from the margin of error.

2
z/ 2
The formula in determining the minimum sample size when estimating a population proportion is n = ^p q
^ ( ) E

.
Example 1
Anthony wants to estimate the mean weight , in kilograms, of all Grade 1 pupils in an elementary school. He wants to be 99% confident that

the estimate of is accurate to within 0.05 kg. From the previous study, the standard deviation of the weights of the target population was 0.5
kg. What size does he need?

Solution

Given the confidence 99%, then =1-0.99=0.01. Thus, z =2.576

2

The phrase accurate to within 0.05 kg indicates a narrowed width of the confidence interval, from 0.5 kg to 0.05 kg. So, the error E=0.05kg.
Population standard deviation =0.5 kg.
Substituting the values in the equation for getting the sample size, we have
2

( )
z ( )
n = ( ) 2
= ( ( 2.576 ) ( 0.5 ) 2

) = ( 1.288 2

) = ( 25.76 )2 n = 663.58 664

0.05 0.05
E
Note that n has been rounded up to 664. Anthony needs a sample size of 664 children.
Example 2
A company has tasked Mary, a researcher, to find out the proportion of housewives who use the particular brand of cooking oil. The company wants
to know, with 95% confidence, the proportion of households who like to use that cooking oil. A previous survey has shown that 42% like to use
cooking oil X. The study must be accurate to within 2% of the true proportion. What sample size does Mary need?

Solution
The computing formula is
2
z / 2
n = ^p q
^ ( ) E
The error E is pegged at 2%
Given proportion: 42% or 0.42
We substitute these values in the computing formula.
Step 1: The confidence level is 95%
Step 2: With 95% confidence level, = 0.05

So, z / 2=1.96
Step 3: The error E is 2% or 0.02
Step 4: The given proportion is 42% That is ^p=0.42 So, q^ =10.42=0.5
Step 5: Substitute the values in the formula and compute.

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 2
z
n = ^p q ( )
^ /2
E
Step 6: Round up the resulting value to the nearest whole number.
2 2
z
n = ^p q ( )
^ /2
E
1.96
( )
= ( 0.42 ) ( 0.58 ) 0.02 n = 2339.53 2340

Thus, Mary needs a sample of 2340 respondents.

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