Things to Know if the GOP American Health Care Act to Replace the

Affordable Care Act becomes Law

The GOP is tweaking and preparing to vote on its American Health Care Act as
early as Thursday, March 23rd.

The bipartisan Congressional Budget Office(CBO) analyzed the likely impact of the
GOP American Health Care Act (AHCA), which was designed to replace the Affordable
Care Act (ACA). Below are key takeaways from that analysis, in which the CBO
partnered with the Joint Committee on Taxation.

It compares the cost and coverage projections over the next 10 years if we keep the
ACA to what those projections would be if the GOP AHCA proposal becomes law.

1. In 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured under the GOP AHCA than
under the current ACA. Reasons: The repeal of the individual mandate and a rise
in premiums.

2. Seven million more will lose coverage by 2020, and another 3 million by 2026.
Reason: Changes to Medicaid that would allow states to tighten coverage rules.

3. The GOP AHCA won't destabilize the health insurance markets for people who
aren't covered by plans provided by employers.

4. Under the ACA, that stability is provided by the individual mandate and poor and
middle-class subsidies.

5. Under the GOP AHCA, new subsidies would be less generous for the poor, but still
provide sufficient incentives for enough healthy people to enroll to stabilize the
system, especially when combined with grants to hospitals.

6. Talk of skyrocketing costs under the ACA can be misleading. "Under current law,
most subsidized enrollees purchasing health insurance coverage in the nongroup
market are largely insulated from increases in premiums because their out-of-
pocket payments for premiums are based on a percentage of their income; the
government pays the difference."

7. Under the GOP legislation, the premiums would cost 15-20% percent more than
the ACA until 2020. By 2026, average premiums would cost about 10% less than
what they'd cost under the ACA because insurers could offer weaker/less
expensive insurance plans than the ACA allows.

8. The GOP AHCA would be weaker than current coverage options because the new
law would remove the requirement that qualifying insurance plans cover at least
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 60% of the cost of a covered procedure. This would allow plans that cover only
very small portions of medical bills to count as coverage.

9. The lower premiums after 2020 won't be enjoyed evenly because insurers would
be allowed to generally charge 5 times more for older enrollees than younger ones
rather than 3 times more as under the ACA - substantially reducing premiums for
young adults and substantially raising premiums for older people.

10.If a monthly premium for a young person is now $400, before subsidies under the
ACA, the same coverage can be priced no more than $1,200 per month, before
subsidies, for an older person. Under the GOP AHCA, a company could be able to
charge the older customer $2,000 for coverage that someone younger pays just
$400 for.

11.No one would be required to buy insurance under the GOP AHCA, but if you fail to
do so, the next time you choose to buy insurance, you will pay a hefty
fee/surcharge to the insurance company and not to the government.

12.On net, enacting the GOP AHCA would decrease federal deficits by $337 billion
over the 2017-2026 period. That change would result from a $1.2 trillion decrease
in direct spending, partially offset by an $883 billion reduction in revenues.

13.When the GOP AHCA becomes law, there will be 14 million fewer Medicaid
enrollees by 2026. Reason: the federal government will provide a smaller subsidy
to pay for the medical bills of each new Medicaid enrollee.

14.Under the GOP AHCA, the federal government will cap its contributions to states
according to a formula specifically designed to not keep pace with the rising cost
of medical care. That is, states' costs for the same coverage will go up year after
year faster than their reimbursements from the federal government.

15. It probably will be harder to shop for insurance under the GOP AHCA. Under the
GOP AHCA, the tax credits will be available no matter where one buys insurance,
thus making it likely that insurance companies will stop selling their policies
through the common marketplaces and instead just sell them directly to the
insured.

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