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Stats:IntroductiontoProbability
SampleSpaces
Asamplespaceisthesetofallpossibleoutcomes.However,somesamplespacesarebetterthanothers.
Considertheexperimentofflippingtwocoins.Itispossibletoget0heads,1head,or2heads.Thus,thesample
spacecouldbe{0,1,2}.Anotherwaytolookatitisflip{HH,HT,TH,TT}.Thesecondwayisbetterbecause
eacheventisasequallylikelytooccurasanyother.
Whenwritingthesamplespace,itishighlydesirabletohaveeventswhichareequallylikely.
Anotherexampleisrollingtwodice.Thesumsare{2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}.However,eachofthese
aren'tequallylikely.Theonlywaytogetasum2istorolla1onbothdice,butyoucangetasumof4byrolling
a13,22,or31.Thefollowingtableillustratesabettersamplespaceforthesumobtainwhenrollingtwodice.
SecondDie
FirstDie 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ClassicalProbability
Theabovetablelendsitselftodescribingdataanotherwayusingaprobabilitydistribution.Let'sconsiderthe
frequencydistributionfortheabovesums.
Sum Frequency Relative
Frequency
2 1 1/36
3 2 2/36
4 3 3/36
5 4 4/36
6 5 5/36
7 6 6/36
8 5 5/36
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9 4 4/36
10 3 3/36
11 2 2/36
12 1 1/36
Ifjustthefirstandlastcolumnswerewritten,wewouldhaveaprobabilitydistribution.Therelativefrequency
ofafrequencydistributionistheprobabilityoftheeventoccurring.Thisisonlytrue,however,iftheeventsare
equallylikely.
Thisgivesustheformulaforclassicalprobability.Theprobabilityofaneventoccurringisthenumberinthe
eventdividedbythenumberinthesamplespace.Again,thisisonlytruewhentheeventsareequallylikely.A
classicalprobabilityistherelativefrequencyofeacheventinthesamplespacewheneacheventisequally
likely.
P(E)=n(E)/n(S)
EmpiricalProbability
Empiricalprobabilityisbasedonobservation.Theempiricalprobabilityofaneventistherelativefrequencyof
afrequencydistributionbaseduponobservation.
P(E)=f/n
ProbabilityRules
Therearetworuleswhichareveryimportant.
Allprobabilitiesarebetween0and1inclusive
0<=P(E)<=1
Thesumofalltheprobabilitiesinthesamplespaceis1
Therearesomeotherruleswhicharealsoimportant.
Theprobabilityofaneventwhichcannotoccuris0.
Theprobabilityofanyeventwhichisnotinthesamplespaceiszero.
Theprobabilityofaneventwhichmustoccuris1.
Theprobabilityofthesamplespaceis1.
Theprobabilityofaneventnotoccurringisoneminustheprobabilityofitoccurring.
P(E')=1P(E)
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Continueandlearnmoreabouttherulesofprobability.
TableofContents
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