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Introduction
Basics of Probability
The quality of a product
The meaning of quality
Product specification Performance characteristics
Statistical analysis
Performance statistics vs. product specification
The reliability of a product
The meaning of reliability
Practical reliability definitions
Probability distributions
Instantaneous failure rate
Hazard rate function
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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering
Introduction
The reliability of engineering systems has become an important
factor during their planning, design, and operation.
The factors include high acquisition cost, increasing number of
reliability-related lawsuits, complex and sophisticated systems,
competition, public pressures, and the past well-publicized
system failures.
Over the past 60 years, many new advances have been made in
the field of reliability that help to produce reliable systems.
The importance of quality in business and industry has increased
to a level greater than ever before.
Introduction
Factors such as growing demand from customers for better
quality, the global economy, and the complexity and
sophistication of products have played an instrumental role in
increasing this importance.
The cost of quality control accounts for roughly 710% of the
total sales revenue of manufacturers.
Today, the industrial sector is faced with many quality-related
challenges. Some of these are the rising cost of quality, the
Internet economy, an alarming rate of increase in customer
quality-related requirements, and the need for improvements in
methods and practices associated with quality-related activities.
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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering
Basics of Probability
Types of Events
Independent Events
These are events that are not related in any way.
Occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not
affect the probability of occurrence of another event.
Mutually Exclusive Events
These are events that cannot happen at the same time.
The occurrence of one event prohibits the other event.
Simultaneous Events
Events which happen at the same time.
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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering
Basics of Probability
Simultaneous Events Product Rule
Let A and B be independent events which are non-mutually
exclusive.
Let PA (PB) be the probability that event A (B) occurs.
Basics of Probability
Occurrence of at least one of several events
Basics of Probability
Rare Events Approximation
In general, the probability of simultaneous events is very
small.
For N independent non-exclusive events, we may
approximate the probability of occurrence of at least
one of several events as
Basics of Probability
Binomial Distribution (BD)
A discrete probability distribution
Applies to situations where n independent trials are made
and there are only 2 possible outcomes to each trial.
Example: When a coin is tossed 10 times, BD could be used to
calculate the probability of getting heads 4x or tails 6x.
Basics of Probability
Binomial Distribution (BD)
In reliability context, R typically denotes the probability of
survival (reliability) and F denotes the probability of failure.
Introduction
Basics of Probability
Quality of a Product
Continuous characteristics (Objective)
Can take any value within a given range; can be established by
independent measurement
Example: Urban fuel consumption of a typical car can be any value
between 10-15 km/litre.
Discrete characteristics (Subjective)
Reserved for less tangible features; decision varies from customer to
customer
Example: Visual appeal of a car (5) Excellent; (4) Good; (3) Satisfactory;
(2) Unsatisfactory; (1) Repulsive
Binary characteristics
Can either take the value of 0 or 1
Example: This model of the car has a built-in GPS while another model
does not have.
Need not be subjective (Example: Ability/inability of the car to start the
first time).
Quality of a Product
Product specifications
Continuous characteristics are the most useful for quantifying product
performance.
Specifications of an engineering product are made in terms of a set of
target values for a selected set of continuous characteristics.
Quality of a Product
Random effects
Continuous characteristics are the most useful for quantifying product
Components of a system/product, manufacturing processes, operating
conditions cannot be exactly the same.
Random variations in the input parameters would of course affect the
performance targets.
Besides target values, it is a norm to also specify the tolerance limits of
the target values.
Example: The resistance of a resistor is specified in terms of a target value
(e.g. 10 k) and a tolerance limit (5 %).
Quality of a Product
Statistical Analysis
Sampling process for knowing the actual random variation in a
given performance characteristic in relation to its target value
and tolerance limit.
Mathematical process involving the calculation of the mean,
standard deviation, probability, probability density function
(pdf) and confidence interval of a given performance
characteristic.
Quality of a Product
Quality of a Product
Gaussian Probability Density Function:
Also known as normal PDF
Most commonly adopted
Quality of a Product
Quality of a Product
=1
= 0.25
Introduction
Basics of Probability
The quality of a product
The meaning of quality
Product specification Performance characteristics
Statistical analysis
Performance statistics vs. product specification
Reliability of a Product
Becomes important only after the product has been tested and the
performance characteristics satisfy all the specifications, i.e.
{ xT } and { }, i.e. after the product has been placed in service.
Meaning of reliability
The reliability R of a product can thus be defined as the
probability that it continues to meet the specifications, over a
given period, subject to given environmental conditions.
The unreliability F of a product is the probability that the
product fails to meet the specifications.
Some Notes..
Quality and Reliability are related but are different..
Quality is a concern during manufacturing.
Reliability is a concern during operation, i.e. ability of the
product to retain its quality over time.
Time t is always the variable of interest in product reliability
A product can only have high quality if it also has high reliability
(high quality during manufacturing is of no use if it is lost
quickly).
A product with high reliability need not have high quality (it
may be merely maintaining low quality over a long period of
time).
Mean-time-to-failure (MTTF)
Mean failure rate ()
Mean-time-between-failures (MBTF)
Mean down time (MDT)
Mean failure rate ()
Availability, Unavailability
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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering
Failure prediction:
1. Analysis of field data at normal conditions
2. Accelerated life testing
3. Accelerated degradation testing
4. other testing
Types of Products/Systems :
Repairable and Non-Repairable
Non-repairable systems: satellites, ICs
Repairable systems: autos, appliances
With R
epairs
Reliability
N o R ep
airs
Time
Reliability Characteristics
Non-Repairable Systems:
TTF Time To Failure
Reliability=Availability
Failure Rate -- F(t)
MTTF (Mean Time To Failure)
MTFF (Mean Time To First Failure)
MRL (Mean Residual Life)
Repairable Systems:
Availability .No Reliability Functions
Failure Rate and Repair Rate
MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure)
MTTR (Mean Time To Repair)
MRL (Mean Residual Life --- Economic Justification)
Non-Repairable System
Reliability Function
Non-Repairable Systems
Failure Rate and Hazard Rate
Failure Rate (FITs : failures in 109 hours):
The failure rate in a time interval [ ] is the probability
that a failure per unit time occurs in the interval given
that no failure has occurred prior to the beginning of the
interval. It could be constant, decreasing, increasing
Hazard Rate:
It is the limit of the failure rate as the length of the
interval approaches zero.
=
=
1
=
()
= =
The probability of a value falling between any two values x1 and x2 is the area
bounded by this interval, i.e.
< < = ()
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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering
The figure in next slide shows the relationship between f(t) and F(t)
and gives three descriptions of F(t).
Note that the pdf f(t) has only non-negative values and eventually
either becomes 0 as t increases, or decreases towards 0.
Reliability Function
The cdf F(t) is monotonically increasing and goes from 0 to 1 as t
approaches infinity. In other words, the total area under the f(t)
curve is always 1.
The cumulative distribution function or cdf, F(t), gives the
probability that a measured value will fall between - and t, i.e.
Reliability Function
Notation
Probability density function, fT(t) or f(t)
T random variable (in this case it is the
component life)
t value that the random variable assumes
f(t)=fT(t)=limt0 P(t<T t+ t)/ t
Reliability Function
Reliability is defined as the probability that an item is
functioning at one particular time.
Hence, one way to represent reliability is to show the
probability of product survival at different time.
This leads to Survivor Function S(t) or Reliability
Function R(t) given as
S(t) = R(t)=P[T > t ] t > 0.
Reliability Function
There are two interpretations of the survivor
function.
First, S(t) is the probability that an individual item
is functioning at time t.
Second, if there is a large population of items with
identically distributed lifetimes, S(t) is the
expected fraction of the population that is
functioning at time t.
Reliability Function
Reliability Function
Reliability Function
Probability of Failure : = = =
Reliability Function
Since a unit either fails, or survives, and one of
these two mutually exclusive alternatives
must occur, we have
R(t) = 1 - F(t), F(t) = 1 - R(t), R(t) + F(t) =1
Reliability Function
The survivor function
is useful for comparing
the survival patterns
of several populations
of items.
1.0
0.9
Conditional S(t)
0.8
0.7
S(t)
S(t)
0.6
0.5
functioning at time a:
P{T t and T a ] P[T t ] S ( t )
ST / T a ( t ) ta
P[T a ] P[T a ] S (a )
Reliability Function
The conditional survivor function is useful for
comparing the survival experience of a group of items
that has survived to time a.
Examples include manufactured items surviving a
burn-in test and cancer patients surviving 5 years after
diagnosis and treatment.
The conditional survivor function is of particular
interest to actuaries. For example, if a 43-year-old
woman is purchasing a 1-year term life insurance
policy, an estimate of S T/T43(44) is required to
determine an appropriate premium for the policy.
Reliability Function
F (t ) P(T t )
R(t ) P(T t )
FT (t ) 1 R(t )
() ()
= =
=
Relationship of f(t), F(t) and R(t)
=
Hazard Function
Another way to represent product reliability is to look at
its failure rate, or hazard rate. The rate is a function of
time, and it is expressed as hazard function.
The hazard function or failure rate, h(t), is the most
popular representations for reliability due to its intuitive
interpretation as the amount of risk associated with an
item at time t.
A second reason for its popularity is its usefulness in
comparing the way risks change over time for several
populations of items by plotting their hazard functions
on a single axis.
Hazard Function
The hazard function goes by several aliases:
in reliability it is also known as the hazard rate or failure rate;
in actuarial science it is known as the force of mortality or
force of decrement.
Hazard Function
( + ) 1
= lim = ()
0 () ()
f (t ) f (t ) dF (t ) / dt
h(t )
S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )
All hazard functions must satisfy two conditions:
= 0 0
0
Hazard Function
Example: A distribution with survivor function given as
( t ) k
S( t ) e t 0
Find its hazard function. ()
= =
Solution:
Differentiating the survivor function with respect to t and
negating, the probability density function is
Hazard Function
For the hazard function, if =1, we have the
plot of the function for different values of .
Hazard Function
Generally, three type of hazard functions can be found in products:
Increasing hazard function (IFR)
Decreasing hazard function (DFR)
Bathtub-shaped hazard function
Hazard Function
The units on a hazard function or failure rate (hazard
rate) are typically given as failures per unit time.
Manufactured items are often so reliable that to avoid
hazard functions such as h(t) = 0.00000128 failures per
hour, the units are changed so that the hazard function
may be expressed as h(t) = 1.28 failures per 106 hours.
Another way to avoid writing too many leading zeroes
is to change the units to years, where 1 year equals
8760 hours.
Still another way is to use FIT (failure in time): 1 failure
in 109 hours or 1 failure per trillion device for 1000
hours
FIT :
Failure in Time or
Failure in Trillion for 1000 Hours
-- Failure in billion hours
H (t ) ln[1 F (t )] ln(S (t ))
For small F (t ) :
= 0
H (t ) F (t )
= = ()
= 1 = 1 ()
= 0
= = ()
= 1 = 1 ()
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t 2 t1 t 2 t1 t 2 t1
From the hazard function, we have the FIT rate for this
population of components is 180 FITs at 1 hr and is 0.1136 FITs
at 10,000 hrs. The average hazard rate to 10,000 hrs is
Summary
R(t ) S (t ) f (t ) f (t ) f (t )
h(t )
F (t ) 1 S (t ) S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )
dF (t ) H (t ) ln[S (t )] ln[ R(t )]
f (t )
dt
= 0
= = ()
= 1 = 1 ()
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Example
Example (contd)
Solution
For the density function to be valid, the area under
the curve must equal one. Thus,
10 a 2 10
a( x)dx 1 ( x ) 0 a 1 / 50
0 2
The mean and variance of this distribution are
x 10 1
E ( x) x dx (10)3 6.667
0 50 150
10 1
V ( x) E ( x ) x 3dx (6.667) 2 5.55
2 2
0 50
Example (contd)
Example
Given the hazard function
h( x) c, x 0
Determine the reliability function and the
probability density function
x
Solution cd
cx
R( x) e 0
e ,x0
The reliability function is
The probability density function is
cx
f ( x) h( x) R( x) ce ,x 0
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t
the second moment is 2
ET 2 2
f (t )dt
0 2
using integration by parts twice. Hence, the variance is
V T E T
2
ET
2 2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1 = for
1
= log(1 )
1
2
Which distribution ,
R(t)
2 or 1, is better ?
1
Time t
0
Semiconductor
Devices are
typical Non-
Repairable
systems
Failure rates are often used as an index for reliability. A failure rate indicates
how often a failure occurs per unit time, and failure-rate values generally
change over time as shown in the graph:
Exponential Distribution
Reliability Distribution
Reliability Distribution
Reliability Distribution
Reliability Distribution
Plotting Position
Plotting Position
Work Example 4
The reliability of 1000 non-repairable components was
measured over a time interval of 50 000 hours. At the beginning
of the test, all components were working to specifications. The
cumulative number of failures as a function of time is given in
the table.
(a). Find reliability R and unreliability F as a function of time.
(b). Decide whether the data follows a Weibull distribution.
(c). Estimate the values of To, and .
(d). Find the probability of survival to 10 000 hours.
(e). Find an equation for the instantaneous hazard rate (t).
Is (t) decreasing, increasing or constant with time?
(f). Estimate the mean time to failure MTTF.
To = 0
Failure Per Hour %/K FIT Failures per hour X 105 = %/K
0.00001 1.0 10,000 Failures per hour X 109 = FIT
0.000001 0.1 1,000 %/K X 104 = FIT
0.0000001 0.01 100
0.00000001 0.001 10
0.000000001 0.0001 1