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Trump made to China was to reaffirm U.S. support for the One China Policy as a
precondition of his telephone call with President Xi Jinping. It is noticeable that Trump
has not called China a currency manipulator recently nor has Trump taken any action
to put a high tariff on Chinese goods coming into the U.S.
President Trump needs Chinas cooperation in dealing with North Korea, the biggest
security threat to U.S. interests at present in the Asia-Pacific. China insisted on an
informal summit at Mar-a-Lago to give Xi Jinping some flexibility. In other words, the
two leaders can exchange views and agree on what steps to take next without all the
formality of an official state visit. This summit will be only the first step.
President Trump will gain by this initiative because the world community and his
domestic audience will view his leadership in positive terms. Cooperation between
the United States and China is necessary for global and regional stability and security.
Q3. What will impact Asian nations, including U.S. allies (like South Korea, Japan,
Philippines, Thailand, Singapore), from this decision in your view?
ANSWER: It is clear that the Trump Administration is giving priority to alliance relations
in Northeast Asia with Japan and South Korea. This is necessary to deal with the North
Korean problem. The Trump Administration would like to see South Korea and Japan
patch up their differences over so-called comfort women and work effectively in a
trilateral framework with the United States.
Singapore will welcome Trumps policies of peace through strength as long as it
means the U.S. will remain engaged in promoting security and stability in East Asia. As
a trading nation, cooperative U.S.-China relations are vital for Singapores prosperity.
Although both Thailand and the Philippines are U.S. treaty allies, very little if anything
has been said by Trump Administration officials. President Trump has not spoken out
on human rights and the promotion of democracy, so both Thailand and the
Philippines can expect that relations will not deteriorate and that the status quo can
be changed slowly into amore positive directions. All of Philippine President Dutertes
indiscretions against the United States were directed at President Obama and his
administration. Given recent concerns by the Philippines over Chinese actions in the
Spratly islands it is likely the Duterte Administration would welcome some backing by
the United States.
Q4. How does this decision affect ASEAN and the South China Sea in your views?
ANSWER: It seems clear at this point that President Trump and his inner circle do not
value multilateral organisations such as the European Union and G20. They have not
commented on ASEAN. What we know of Trumps views make it likely that he will not
be as active as President Obama in attending many ASEAN leaders meetings and
summits. Proposed budget cuts to the State Department may mean that initiatives
launched by the Obama Administration may be wound back. It is difficult to see the
Trump Administration giving ASEAN anything more than political support in its
discussions with China on the South China Sea. After all, in Trumps worldview, what
does ASEAN bring to the table? Why should the U.S. stick its nose out for ASEAN?
Chinese actions in the South China Sea will become one of a number of issues between
the Washington and Beijing but will be lower down the list of priorities. At present the
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ASEAN will have to wait for its cycle of ministerial meetings to take place to see if U.S.
secretaries of defense and state turn up and what message they convey. The
Philippines, as ASEAN Chair, will have to work doubly hard to secure President Trumps
agreement to attend the annual leaders meeting. Vietnam, as host of APEC, will have
to work equally hard to secure Trumps agreement to attend the APEC Summit.
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