Wallace Garden Supply's Fertilizer Demands

Forecasting Moving averages - 1 period moving average

Num pds 1

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

YEAR Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 4
2 6 4 2 2 4
3 4 6 -2 2 4
4 5 4 1 1 1
5 10 5 5 5 25
6 8 10 -2 2 4
7 7 8 -1 1 1
8 9 7 2 2 4
9 12 9 3 3 9
10 14 12 2 2 4
11 15 14 1 1 1
Total 11 21 57
Average 1.1 2.1 5.7
Bias MAD MSE
SE 2.66927
Next period 15
ng average

Abs Pct Err

Forecasting
33.33% 16
50.00% 14
20.00% 12
50.00% 10
25.00% 8
14.29% Value
6
22.22%
4
25.00%
2
14.29%
0
06.67% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
260.79%
Time
26.08%
MAPE
Demand Forecast
Wallace Garden Supply's Fertilizer Demands

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving av

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

YEAR Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute
1 4 1
2 6 1
3 4 2
4 5 4.5 0.5 0.5
5 10 5 5 5
6 8 7.25 0.75 0.75
7 7 7.75 -0.75 0.75
8 9 8 1 1
9 12 8.25 3.75 3.75
10 14 10 4 4
11 15 12.25 2.75 2.75
Total 17 18.5
Average 2.125 2.3125
Bias MAD
SE
Next period 14
eriod moving average

Analysis
Squared Abs Pct Err

0.25 10.00%
25 50.00%
0.5625 09.38%
0.5625 10.71%
1 11.11%
14.0625 31.25%
16 28.57%
7.5625 18.33%
65 169.36%
8.125 21.17%
MSE MAPE
3.2914
R. Lowenthal Supply Co.'s Vacuum Cleaners Sales

Forecasting Moving averages - 1 period moving average

Num pds 1

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

MONTH SALES Forecast Error Absolute Squared
January 11
February 14 11 3 3 9
March 16 14 2 2 4
April 10 16 -6 6 36
May 15 10 5 5 25
June 17 15 2 2 4
July 11 17 -6 6 36
August 14 11 3 3 9
September 17 14 3 3 9
October 12 17 -5 5 25
November 14 12 2 2 4
December 16 14 2 2 4
January 11 16 -5 5 25
Total 0 44 190
Average 0 3.66667 15.8333
Bias MAD MSE
SE 4.3589
Next period 11
ng average

Abs Pct Err

21.43%
12.50%
60.00%
33.33%
11.76%
54.55%
21.43%
17.65%
41.67%
14.29%
12.50%
45.45%
346.55%
28.88%
MAPE
R. Lowenthal Supply Co.'s Vacuum Cleaners Sales

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving av

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

MONTH SALES Weights Forecast Error Absolute
January 11 1
February 14 2
march 16 3
April 10 14.5 -4.5 4.5
May 15 12.66667 2.333333 2.333333
June 17 13.5 3.5 3.5
July 11 15.16667 -4.166667 4.166667
August 14 13.66667 0.333333 0.333333
September 17 13.5 3.5 3.5
October 12 15 -3 3
November 14 14 0 0
December 16 13.83333 2.166667 2.166667
January 11 14.66667 -3.666667 3.666667
Total -3.5 27.16667
Average -0.35 2.71667
Bias MAD
SE
Next period 13
eriod moving average

Analysis
Squared Abs Pct Err

20.25 45.00%
5.444444 15.56%
12.25 20.59%
17.36111 37.88%
0.111111 02.38%
12.25 20.59%
9 25.00%
0 00.00%
4.694444 13.54%
13.44444 33.33%
94.80556 213.87%
9.48056 21.39%
MSE MAPE
3.44248
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 48.5 -23.5 23.5 552.25
4 40 46.15 -6.15 6.15 37.8225
5 45 45.535 -0.535 0.535 0.286225
6 35 45.4815 -10.4815 10.4815 109.8618
7 20 44.43335 -24.43335 24.43335 596.9886
8 30 41.99002 -11.99002 11.99002 143.7605
9 35 40.79101 -5.791014 5.791014 33.53584
10 20 40.21191 -20.21191 20.21191 408.5214
11 15 38.19072 -23.19072 23.19072 537.8095
12 40 35.87165 4.128351 4.128351 17.04328
13 55 36.28448 18.71552 18.71552 350.2705
14 35 38.15604 -3.156036 3.156036 9.96056
15 25 37.84043 -12.84043 12.84043 164.8767
16 55 36.55639 18.44361 18.44361 340.1668
17 55 38.40075 16.59925 16.59925 275.5351
18 40 40.06067 -0.060675 0.060675 0.003681
19 35 40.05461 -5.054607 5.054607 25.54906
20 60 39.54915 20.45085 20.45085 418.2374
21 75 41.59423 33.40577 33.40577 1115.945
22 50 44.93481 5.065191 5.065191 25.65616
23 40 45.44133 -5.441328 5.441328 29.60805
24 65 44.8972 20.1028 20.1028 404.1228
Total -30.92524 304.7479 5822.812
Average -1.28855 12.6978 242.617
Bias MAD MSE
SE 16.2688
Next period46.907476
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
94.00%
15.38% 70
01.19% 60
29.95%
50
122.17%
39.97% 40
Value
16.55%
30
101.06%
154.60% 20
10.32% 10
34.03%
0
09.02%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
51.36%
33.53% Time
30.18%
00.15% 50 50
14.44%
34.08%
44.54%
10.13%
13.60%
0.309273921
934.03%
38.92%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.2
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 47 -22 22 484
4 40 42.6 -2.6 2.6 6.76
5 45 42.08 2.92 2.92 8.5264
6 35 42.664 -7.664 7.664 58.7369
7 20 41.1312 -21.1312 21.1312 446.5276
8 30 36.90496 -6.90496 6.90496 47.67847
9 35 35.52397 -0.523968 0.523968 0.274542
10 20 35.41917 -15.41917 15.41917 237.7509
11 15 32.33534 -17.33534 17.33534 300.514
12 40 28.86827 11.13173 11.13173 123.9154
13 55 31.09462 23.90538 23.90538 571.4673
14 35 35.87569 -0.875694 0.875694 0.76684
15 25 35.70056 -10.70056 10.70056 114.5019
16 55 33.56044 21.43956 21.43956 459.6546
17 55 37.84836 17.15164 17.15164 294.1789
18 40 41.27868 -1.278684 1.278684 1.635033
19 35 41.02295 -6.022947 6.022947 36.27589
20 60 39.81836 20.18164 20.18164 407.2987
21 75 43.85469 31.14531 31.14531 970.0306
22 50 50.08375 -0.083749 0.083749 0.007014
23 40 50.067 -10.067 10.067 101.3445
24 65 48.0536 16.9464 16.9464 287.1805
Total 7.214398 282.4289 5184.026
Average 0.3006 11.7679 216.001
Bias MAD MSE
SE 15.3505
Next period 51.44288
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
88.00%
06.50% 70
06.49% 60
21.90%
50
105.66%
23.02% 40
Value
01.50%
30
77.10%
115.57% 20
27.83% 10
43.46%
0
02.50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
42.80%
38.98% Time
31.18%
03.20% 50 50
17.21%
33.64%
41.53%
00.17%
25.17%
0.260713856
822.32%
34.26%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.3
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 45.5 -20.5 20.5 420.25
4 40 39.35 0.65 0.65 0.4225
5 45 39.545 5.455 5.455 29.75703
6 35 41.1815 -6.1815 6.1815 38.21094
7 20 39.32705 -19.32705 19.32705 373.5349
8 30 33.52894 -3.528935 3.528935 12.45338
9 35 32.47025 2.529746 2.529746 6.399612
10 20 33.22918 -13.22918 13.22918 175.0112
11 15 29.26042 -14.26042 14.26042 203.3597
12 40 24.9823 15.0177 15.0177 225.5314
13 55 29.48761 25.51239 25.51239 650.8821
14 35 37.14133 -2.141326 2.141326 4.585276
15 25 36.49893 -11.49893 11.49893 132.2253
16 55 33.04925 21.95075 21.95075 481.8354
17 55 39.63447 15.36553 15.36553 236.0994
18 40 44.24413 -4.244132 4.244132 18.01266
19 35 42.97089 -7.970893 7.970893 63.53513
20 60 40.57962 19.42038 19.42038 377.151
21 75 46.40574 28.59426 28.59426 817.6319
22 50 54.98402 -4.984016 4.984016 24.84042
23 40 53.48881 -13.48881 13.48881 181.948
24 65 49.44217 15.55783 15.55783 242.0461
Total 13.69839 286.4088 4940.723
Average 0.57077 11.9337 205.863
Bias MAD MSE
SE 14.9859
Next period54.109518
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
82.00%
01.63% 70
12.12% 60
17.66%
50
96.64%
11.76% 40
Value
07.23%
30
66.15%
95.07% 20
37.54% 10
46.39%
0
06.12%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
46.00%
39.91% Time
27.94%
10.61% 50 50
22.77%
32.37%
38.13%
09.97%
33.72%
0.239351263
808.50%
33.69%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.4
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 44 -19 19 361
4 40 36.4 3.6 3.6 12.96
5 45 37.84 7.16 7.16 51.2656
6 35 40.704 -5.704 5.704 32.53562
7 20 38.4224 -18.4224 18.4224 339.3848
8 30 31.05344 -1.05344 1.05344 1.109736
9 35 30.63206 4.367936 4.367936 19.07886
10 20 32.37924 -12.37924 12.37924 153.2455
11 15 27.42754 -12.42754 12.42754 154.4438
12 40 22.45653 17.54347 17.54347 307.7735
13 55 29.47392 25.52608 25.52608 651.581
14 35 39.68435 -4.684349 4.684349 21.94313
15 25 37.81061 -12.81061 12.81061 164.1117
16 55 32.68637 22.31363 22.31363 497.8983
17 55 41.61182 13.38818 13.38818 179.2434
18 40 46.96709 -6.967092 6.967092 48.54037
19 35 44.18026 -9.180255 9.180255 84.27708
20 60 40.50815 19.49185 19.49185 379.9321
21 75 48.30489 26.69511 26.69511 712.6288
22 50 58.98294 -8.982935 8.982935 80.69312
23 40 55.38976 -15.38976 15.38976 236.8447
24 65 49.23386 15.76614 15.76614 248.5713
Total 13.85078 297.854 4964.062
Average 0.57712 12.4106 206.836
Bias MAD MSE
SE 15.0213
Next period55.540314
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
76.00%
09.00% 70
15.91% 60
16.30%
50
92.11%
03.51% 40
Value
12.48%
30
61.90%
82.85% 20
43.86% 10
46.41%
0
13.38%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
51.24%
40.57% Time
24.34%
17.42% 50 50
26.23%
32.49%
35.59%
17.97%
38.47%
0.242556052
825.15%
34.38%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.5
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 42.5 -17.5 17.5 306.25
4 40 33.75 6.25 6.25 39.0625
5 45 36.875 8.125 8.125 66.01563
6 35 40.9375 -5.9375 5.9375 35.25391
7 20 37.96875 -17.96875 17.96875 322.876
8 30 28.98438 1.015625 1.015625 1.031494
9 35 29.49219 5.507813 5.507813 30.336
10 20 32.24609 -12.24609 12.24609 149.9668
11 15 26.12305 -11.12305 11.12305 123.7222
12 40 20.56152 19.43848 19.43848 377.8544
13 55 30.28076 24.71924 24.71924 611.0407
14 35 42.64038 -7.640381 7.640381 58.37542
15 25 38.82019 -13.82019 13.82019 190.9977
16 55 31.9101 23.0899 23.0899 533.1437
17 55 43.45505 11.54495 11.54495 133.2859
18 40 49.22752 -9.227524 9.227524 85.1472
19 35 44.61376 -9.613762 9.613762 92.42442
20 60 39.80688 20.19312 20.19312 407.7621
21 75 49.90344 25.09656 25.09656 629.8373
22 50 62.45172 -12.45172 12.45172 155.0453
23 40 56.22586 -16.22586 16.22586 263.2785
24 65 48.11293 16.88707 16.88707 285.1731
Total 13.11293 310.6226 5122.88
Average 0.54637 12.9426 213.453
Bias MAD MSE
SE 15.2597
Next period56.556465
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
70.00%
15.63% 70
18.06% 60
16.96%
50
89.84%
03.39% 40
Value
15.74%
30
61.23%
74.15% 20
48.60% 10
44.94%
0
21.83%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
55.28%
41.98% Time
20.99%
23.07% 50 50
27.47%
33.66%
33.46%
24.90%
40.56%
0.259801076
850.58%
35.44%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.6
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 41 -16 16 256
4 40 31.4 8.6 8.6 73.96
5 45 36.56 8.44 8.44 71.2336
6 35 41.624 -6.624 6.624 43.87738
7 20 37.6496 -17.6496 17.6496 311.5084
8 30 27.05984 2.94016 2.94016 8.644541
9 35 28.82394 6.176064 6.176064 38.14377
10 20 32.52957 -12.52957 12.52957 156.9902
11 15 25.01183 -10.01183 10.01183 100.2367
12 40 19.00473 20.99527 20.99527 440.8013
13 55 31.60189 23.39811 23.39811 547.4714
14 35 45.64076 -10.64076 10.64076 113.2257
15 25 39.2563 -14.2563 14.2563 203.2422
16 55 30.70252 24.29748 24.29748 590.3675
17 55 45.28101 9.718992 9.718992 94.4588
18 40 51.1124 -11.1124 11.1124 123.4855
19 35 44.44496 -9.444961 9.444961 89.20729
20 60 38.77798 21.22202 21.22202 450.3739
21 75 51.51119 23.48881 23.48881 551.724
22 50 65.60448 -15.60448 15.60448 243.4997
23 40 56.24179 -16.24179 16.24179 263.7958
24 65 46.49672 18.50328 18.50328 342.3715
Total 12.66448 322.8959 5339.619
Average 0.52769 13.454 222.484
Bias MAD MSE
SE 15.5792
Next period57.598687
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
64.00%
21.50% 70
18.76% 60
18.93%
50
88.25%
09.80% 40
Value
17.65%
30
62.65%
66.75% 20
52.49% 10
42.54%
0
30.40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
57.03%
44.18% Time
17.67%
27.78% 50 50
26.99%
35.37%
31.32%
31.21%
40.60%
0.284665901
877.17%
36.55%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.7
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 39.5 -14.5 14.5 210.25
4 40 29.35 10.65 10.65 113.4225
5 45 36.805 8.195 8.195 67.15803
6 35 42.5415 -7.5415 7.5415 56.87422
7 20 37.26245 -17.26245 17.26245 297.9922
8 30 25.17874 4.821265 4.821265 23.2446
9 35 28.55362 6.44638 6.44638 41.55581
10 20 33.06609 -13.06609 13.06609 170.7226
11 15 23.91983 -8.919826 8.919826 79.56329
12 40 17.67595 22.32405 22.32405 498.3633
13 55 33.30278 21.69722 21.69722 470.7692
14 35 48.49084 -13.49084 13.49084 182.0026
15 25 39.04725 -14.04725 14.04725 197.3252
16 55 29.21418 25.78582 25.78582 664.9088
17 55 47.26425 7.735747 7.735747 59.84179
18 40 52.67928 -12.67928 12.67928 160.764
19 35 43.80378 -8.803783 8.803783 77.50659
20 60 37.64113 22.35887 22.35887 499.9189
21 75 53.29234 21.70766 21.70766 471.2225
22 50 68.4877 -18.4877 18.4877 341.7951
23 40 55.54631 -15.54631 15.54631 241.6878
24 65 44.66389 20.33611 20.33611 413.5572
Total 12.7131 331.4031 5565.446
Average 0.52971 13.8085 231.894
Bias MAD MSE
SE 15.9052
Next period58.899168
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
58.00%
26.63% 70
18.21% 60
21.55%
50
86.31%
16.07% 40
Value
18.42%
30
65.33%
59.47% 20
55.81% 10
39.45%
0
38.55%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
56.19%
46.88% Time
14.06%
31.70% 50 50
25.15%
37.26%
28.94%
36.98%
38.87%
0.312863182
893.97%
37.25%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.8
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 38 -13 13 169
4 40 27.6 12.4 12.4 153.76
5 45 37.52 7.48 7.48 55.9504
6 35 43.504 -8.504 8.504 72.31802
7 20 36.7008 -16.7008 16.7008 278.9167
8 30 23.34016 6.65984 6.65984 44.35347
9 35 28.66803 6.331968 6.331968 40.09382
10 20 33.73361 -13.73361 13.73361 188.6119
11 15 22.74672 -7.746721 7.746721 60.01169
12 40 16.54934 23.45066 23.45066 549.9333
13 55 35.30987 19.69013 19.69013 387.7013
14 35 51.06197 -16.06197 16.06197 257.987
15 25 38.21239 -13.21239 13.21239 174.5674
16 55 27.64248 27.35752 27.35752 748.434
17 55 49.5285 5.471504 5.471504 29.93736
18 40 53.9057 -13.9057 13.9057 193.3685
19 35 42.78114 -7.78114 7.78114 60.54614
20 60 36.55623 23.44377 23.44377 549.6104
21 75 55.31125 19.68875 19.68875 387.6471
22 50 71.06225 -21.06225 21.06225 443.6183
23 40 54.21245 -14.21245 14.21245 201.9937
24 65 42.84249 22.15751 22.15751 490.9553
Total 13.21062 335.0527 5764.316
Average 0.55044 13.9605 240.18
Bias MAD MSE
SE 16.1869
Next period60.568498
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
52.00%
31.00% 70
16.62% 60
24.30%
50
83.50%
22.20% 40
Value
18.09%
30
68.67%
51.64% 20
58.63% 10
35.80%
0
45.89%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
52.85%
49.74% Time
09.95%
34.76% 50 50
22.23%
39.07%
26.25%
42.12%
35.53%
0.34088477
897.81%
37.41%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Winter Park 911's System
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
Forecasting
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first Exponential
first period
period then
then delete
delete the smoothing
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.9
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
WEEK CALLS Forecast Error Absolute Squared
1 50 50 0 0 0
2 35 50 -15 15 225
3 25 36.5 -11.5 11.5 132.25
4 40 26.15 13.85 13.85 191.8225
5 45 38.615 6.385 6.385 40.76823
6 35 44.3615 -9.3615 9.3615 87.63768
7 20 35.93615 -15.93615 15.93615 253.9609
8 30 21.59362 8.406385 8.406385 70.66731
9 35 29.15936 5.840639 5.840639 34.11306
10 20 34.41594 -14.41594 14.41594 207.8192
11 15 21.44159 -6.441594 6.441594 41.49413
12 40 15.64416 24.35584 24.35584 593.207
13 55 37.56442 17.43558 17.43558 303.9996
14 35 53.25644 -18.25644 18.25644 333.2977
15 25 36.82564 -11.82564 11.82564 139.8459
16 55 26.18256 28.81744 28.81744 830.4446
17 55 52.11826 2.881744 2.881744 8.304446
18 40 54.71183 -14.71183 14.71183 216.4378
19 35 41.47118 -6.471183 6.471183 41.8762
20 60 35.64712 24.35288 24.35288 593.0628
21 75 57.56471 17.43529 17.43529 303.9893
22 50 73.25647 -23.25647 23.25647 540.8635
23 40 52.32565 -12.32565 12.32565 151.9216
24 65 41.23256 23.76744 23.76744 564.891
Total 14.02584 333.0306 5907.674
Average 0.58441 13.8763 246.153
Bias MAD MSE
SE 16.3869
Next period62.623256
 ecast. IfIf the
recast. the
orecast.
orecast.

Abs Pct Err

00.00% Forecasting
42.86%
80
46.00%
34.63% 70
14.19% 60
26.75%
50
79.68%
28.02% 40
Value
16.69%
30
72.08%
42.94% 20
60.89% 10
31.70%
0
52.16%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
47.30%
52.40% Time
05.24%
36.78% 50 50
18.49%
40.59%
23.25%
46.51%
30.81%
0.365652851
886.52%
36.94%
MAPE
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
WEEK CALLS = 0,1 = 0,2 = 0,3 = 0,4 = 0,5 = 0,6

1 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
2 35 50 50 50 50 50 50
3 25 48.5 47 45.5 44 42.5 41
4 40 46.15 42.6 39.35 36.4 33.75 31.4
5 45 45.535 42.08 39.545 37.84 36.875 36.56
6 35 45.4815 42.664 41.1815 40.704 40.9375 41.624
7 20 44.43335 41.1312 39.32705 38.4224 37.96875 37.6496
8 30 41.99002 36.90496 33.52894 31.05344 28.98438 27.05984
9 35 40.79101 35.52397 32.47025 30.63206 29.49219 28.82394
10 20 40.21191 35.41917 33.22918 32.37924 32.24609 32.52957
11 15 38.19072 32.33534 29.26042 27.42754 26.12305 25.01183
12 40 35.87165 28.86827 24.98230 22.45653 20.56152 19.00473
13 55 36.28448 31.09462 29.48761 29.47392 30.28076 31.60189
14 35 38.15604 35.87569 37.14133 39.68435 42.64038 45.64076
15 25 37.84043 35.70056 36.49893 37.81061 38.82019 39.25630
16 55 36.55639 33.56044 33.04925 32.68637 31.91010 30.70252
17 55 38.40075 37.84836 39.63447 41.61182 43.45505 45.28101
18 40 40.06067 41.27868 44.24413 46.96709 49.22752 51.11240
19 35 40.05461 41.02295 42.97089 44.18026 44.61376 44.44496
20 60 39.54915 39.81836 40.57962 40.50815 39.80688 38.77798
21 75 41.59423 43.85469 46.40574 48.30489 49.90344 51.51119
22 50 44.93481 50.08375 54.98402 58.98294 62.45172 65.60448
23 40 45.44133 50.06700 53.48881 55.38976 56.22586 56.24179
24 65 44.89720 48.05360 49.44217 49.23386 48.11293 46.49672
MAD 12.698 11.768 11.934 12.411 12.943 13.454
 80

70

60

50

NUMBER OF CALLS
40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

WEEK
 FORECAST FORECAST
= 0,7 = 0,8 = 0,9 MAD
CALLS CALLS
50 50 50 0.1 47 12.698 0.6 58
50 50 50 0.2 51 11.768 0.7 59
39.5 38 36.5 0.3 54 11.934 0.8 61
29.35 27.6 26.15 0.4 56 12.411 0.9 63
36.805 37.52 38.615 0.5 57 12.943
42.5415 43.504 44.3615
37.26245 36.7008 35.93615
25.17874 23.34016 21.59362
28.55362 28.66803 29.15936
33.06609 33.73361 34.41594
23.91983 22.74672 21.44159
17.67595 16.54934 15.64416
33.30278 35.30987 37.56442
48.49084 51.06197 53.25644
39.04725 38.21239 36.82564
29.21418 27.64248 26.18256
47.26425 49.52850 52.11826
52.67928 53.90570 54.71183
43.80378 42.78114 41.47118
37.64113 36.55623 35.64712
53.29234 55.31125 57.56471
68.48770 71.06225 73.25647
55.54631 54.21245 52.32565
44.66389 42.84249 41.23256
13.808 13.961 13.876 11.768
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

WEEK
 MAD

13.454
13.808
13.961
13.876
YEAR QUARTER n RETAIL TRADE CMA SR SI

1 1 1 218 0.88
2 2 247 0.98
3 3 243 250.875 0.969 0.97
4 4 292 252.625 1.156 1.16
2 1 5 225 255.000 0.882 0.88
2 6 254 257.375 0.987 0.98
3 7 255 259.375 0.983 0.97
4 8 299 261.875 1.142 1.16
3 1 9 234 264.375 0.885 0.88
2 10 265 269.000 0.985 0.98
3 11 264 274.500 0.962 0.97
4 12 327 278.750 1.173 1.16
4 1 13 250 284.125 0.880 0.88
2 14 283 290.875 0.973 0.98
3 15 289 0.97
4 16 356 1.16
DEASEASONALIZED
RETAIL TRADE
247
252
250
252
255
259
263
258
265
270
272
283
283
288
298
308
Texas's Retail Trade

Forecasting Decomposition, multiplicative

4 seasons

Data
QUARTER RETAIL TRADE Time (x) Average Ratio
1 218 1
2 247 2
3 243 3 250 250.875 0.96861
4 292 4 251.75 252.625 1.155863
5 225 5 253.5 255 0.882353
6 254 6 256.5 257.375 0.986887
7 255 7 258.25 259.375 0.983133
8 299 8 260.5 261.875 1.141766
9 234 9 263.25 264.375 0.885106
10 265 10 265.5 269 0.98513
11 264 11 272.5 274.5 0.961749
12 327 12 276.5 278.75 1.173094
13 250 13 281 284.125 0.879894
14 283 14 287.25 290.875 0.972927
15 289 15 294.5
16 356 16

Average

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4
0.96861 1.155863
0.8823529412 0.986887 0.983133 1.141766
0.885106383 0.98513 0.961749 1.173094
0.8798944127 0.972927
Average 0.8824512456 0.981648 0.971164 1.156908

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
17 300 0.88 265
18 304 0.98 298
19 307 0.97 299
20 311 1.16 360
 Forecasts and Error Analysis
Seasonal Smoothed UnadjustedAdjusted Error |Error| Error^2
0.882451 247.0391 241.4136 213.0358 4.964233 4.964233 24.64361
0.981648 251.6177 245.0794 240.5817 6.418317 6.418317 41.19479
0.971164 250.2153 248.7452 241.5723 1.427688 1.427688 2.038293
1.156908 252.3969 252.411 292.0163 -0.016274 0.016274 0.000265
0.882451 254.9716 256.0768 225.9753 -0.975273 0.975273 0.951157
0.981648 258.7486 259.7426 254.9757 -0.975722 0.975722 0.952034
0.971164 262.5716 263.4083 255.8126 -0.812621 0.812621 0.660353
1.156908 258.4475 267.0741 308.9802 -9.980177 9.980177 99.60393
0.882451 265.1705 270.7399 238.9148 -4.914779 4.914779 24.15505
0.981648 269.9542 274.4057 269.3698 -4.369762 4.369762 19.09482
0.971164 271.8388 278.0715 270.0529 -6.05293 6.05293 36.63796
1.156908 282.65 281.7373 325.9441 1.05592 1.05592 1.114968
0.882451 283.3018 285.4031 251.8543 -1.854285 1.854285 3.438373
0.981648 288.2908 289.0688 283.7638 -0.763801 0.763801 0.583392
0.971164 297.5811 292.7346 284.2932 4.706761 4.706761 22.1536
1.156908 307.7168 296.4004 342.908 13.09202 13.09202 171.4009
Total 0.949314 62.38056 448.6235
Intercept 237.7479 0.059332 3.898785 28.03897
Slope 3.665785 Bias MAD MSE
SE 6.697937
Analysis
Abs Pct Err
02.28%
02.60%
00.59%
00.01%
00.43%
00.38%
00.32%
03.34%
02.10%
01.65%
02.29%
00.32%
00.74%
00.27%
01.63%
03.68%
22.63%
01.41%
MAPE
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8671036408
R Square 0.7518687239
Adjusted R Square 0.738083653
Standard Error 1744.921451
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 166067550.08459 1.7E+008 54.5422457 7.506174E-007
Residual 18 54805515.665414 3044751
Total 19 220873065.75

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0%
Intercept 2898.6315789 810.5709023902 3.576037 0.00215927 1195.68530494 4601.57785296 1195.68530494
YEAR 499.72556391 67.6651515722 7.385272 7.506E-007 357.566355615 641.884772204 357.566355615
 Upper 95,0%
4601.57785296
641.884772204
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Value

Forecasting Simple linear regression

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

YEAR VALUE Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute
1991 2634 1 3398.357 -764.3571 764.3571
1992 3169 2 3898.083 -729.0827 729.0827
1993 3301 3 4397.808 -1096.808 1096.808
1994 3754 4 4897.534 -1143.534 1143.534
1995 3834 5 5397.259 -1563.259 1563.259
1996 5117 6 5896.985 -779.985 779.985
1997 6448 7 6396.711 51.28947 51.28947
1998 7908 8 6896.436 1011.564 1011.564
1999 9213 9 7396.162 1816.838 1816.838
2000 11502 10 7895.887 3606.113 3606.113
2001 10791 11 8395.613 2395.387 2395.387
2002 10022 12 8895.338 1126.662 1126.662
2003 8342 13 9395.064 -1053.064 1053.064
2004 10453 14 9894.789 558.2105 558.2105
2005 10784 15 10394.52 389.485 389.485
2006 10718 16 10894.24 -176.2406 176.2406
2007 12460 17 11393.97 1066.034 1066.034
2008 13262 18 11893.69 1368.308 1368.308
2009 8772 19 12393.42 -3621.417 3621.417
2010 10431 20 12893.14 -2462.143 2462.143
Total 0 26779.78
Intercept 2898.6316 Average 0 1338.99
Slope 499.72556 Bias MAD
SE
Forecast 13393 21
13893 22 Correlatio
14392 23 Coefficient of determination
Analysis
Squared Abs Pct Err
584241.8 29.02%
531561.6 23.01%
1202988 33.23%
1307670 30.46%
2443780 40.77%
608376.5 15.24%
2630.61 00.80%
1023262 12.79%
3300902 19.72%
Regression
13004049 31.35%
15000
5737880 22.20%
1269366 11.24% f(x) = 499.7255639098x + 2898.6315789474
10000
1108944 12.62%
311599 05.34% 5000
151698.5 03.61%
31060.75 01.64% 0
1136428 08.56% 0 5 10 15 2

1872268 10.32% Column B Linear (Column B)

13114663 41.28%
6062147 23.60%
54805516 376.81%
2740276 18.84%
MSE MAPE
1744.92

0.8671
0.75187
gression

8x + 2898.6315789474

0 15 20 25
Linear (Column B)
 SALES
YEAR QUARTER n CMA SR
($1.000.000s)
1 1 1 108
2 2 125
3 3 150 132.000 1.136
4 4 141 134.125 1.051
2 1 5 116 136.375 0.851
2 6 134 138.875 0.965
3 7 159 141.125 1.127
4 8 152 143.000 1.063
3 1 9 123 145.125 0.848
2 10 142 147.875 0.960
3 11 168
4 12 165
4 1 13 155
2 14 158
3 15 160
4 16 162
 DESEASONALIZED SALES
SI
($1.000.000s)
180
0.85 127.198
170
0.96 129.859
160
1.13 132.566
1.06 133.384 150

0.85 136.620 140

0.96 139.209 130
1.13 140.520 120
1.06 143.790 110
0.85 144.864 100
0.96 147.520 90
1.13 148.474
80
1.06 156.088 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.85 131.813 SALES ($1.000.000s)
0.96 151.691
1.13 180.964
1.06 171.540
DESEASONALIZED SALES ($1.
180.000
160.000
140.000 f(x) = 2.3434316742x + 124.77527547
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

SALES ($1.000.000s) CMA

NALIZED SALES ($1.000.000s)

6742x + 124.7752754762

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12