CHAPTER V

COVER

5.1 Conclusions
Forecasting based on chapter IV, the conclusion that can be drawn: by
using the method of MA, the results obtained by the forecast of 424 unti the carpet
for the month of January 2016. With this level of error (Error) of 327.01 and
obtained the results of the MAD amounted to 65.40 and range between 358.6 x
489.4 unit on the carpet. By using the method of forecast results invalidated,
WMA, 431.8 units of the carpet for the month of January 2016. With this level of
error (Error) of 147.1, and obtained results of MAD 29.42 and range 402.38 x
461.22 unit on the carpet. By using this method, the results
of the forecast obtained amounted to 400 units of the carpet for the month of
January 2016. With this level of error (Error) of 200.07 and obtained results of
MAD 28.58 range between 371.42 and x 428.58 unti carpet.
The third method of divination used writer to predict the amount of carpet
washing laundry Super Quality, turned out to be the most effective method is the
method of ES (Exponential smoothing) with = 0.2. With the results forecast in
January 2016 as much as 400 units and has a level of any (Error) the most smaller
than other forecasting methods. This method can be seen in the decline in
January 2016.
Forecasting results obtained by the method of Exponential smoothing is
not one hundred percent. But it is hoped can be set as a reference to see the
conditions in the future. There are forecasting better than nothing,
which is meant to make the company has planning the future.

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5.2Suggestions
To reduce the amount of uncertainty on carpet washing Laundry Super
Quality who use his services, with the parties making forecasting can estimate the
amount of laundry washing carpets the right to run smoothly in the leaching
process, as well as getting the maximum profit.
Thus we recommend you Laundry Super Quality method using ES
(Exponential smoothing) with = 0.2 forecasting calculation of washing the
carpet in January 2016 because it is better than using the methods of Moving and
Averge Weight Moving Average. In may an error (Error) the smallest in January
2016 using Exponential Smoothing method with = 0.2
Based on those results, Super Quality Laundry can predict the results of
cuciannya in January 2016 until next months. But the results
of the forecasting must be counterbalanced by looking at the State of inner and
outer side of the company, such as quality of service, the price, the number
of competitors.