Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
17 July 2013

Steel & Metals

Aurubis
Estimates reduced. Buy rating confirmed.

Buy (prev. Buy) PRICE RELATIVE TO INDEX

Closing price as of 16-Jul-13 EUR 42.12
High/Low (12M) 57.24/38.06
Target price EUR 55.00 (prev. EUR 64.50)
Upside to target price (%) 30.6
Cost of equity (%) 8.7

Reuters/Bloomberg NAFG.DE/NDA GY
Average daily volume (tsd.) 213.5
Free float (%) 75.0
Market capitalization (EUR mn) 1,894
No. of shares issued (mn) 45.0
Events Annual general meeting Feb-2014
9M/3Q 13-Aug-2013
Shareholders Salzgitter AG 25% + 1 share Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M
CORE INVESTMENT THESIS POTENTIAL NEAR TERM CATALYSTS Absolute -9.0 -13.3 -23.0
Leading integrated European copper producer Capital Market Day 22-23 August rel. DAX -9.9 -20.0 -29.7
Input mix changes to higher margin material Ramp-up of the anode slime treatment rel. EURO STOXX 50 -8.9 -15.4 -21.7
Proven track record for acquisitions Stabilization of copper, gold and silver prices rel. SXXP Basic Resource -4.5 -6.9 -0.6

We confirm our Buy rating for Aurubis but reduce our target price to EUR 55.00. Main reasons: 1) Lower expectation for
RCs, sulphuric acid and precious metal prices. 2) A more cautious calculation for the profits in the BU2 and 3.

We like to confirm our view that Aurubis will be able to remain on the path of structurally rising earnings growth in the
coming years. The management invests into the optimization of the plant structure and capacity expansion in some special areas
to improve the earnings quality of the input mix. We expect that Aurubis also has a close look on possible portfolio adjustments.

Aurubis has a strong balance sheet and generates healthy cash flows. Despite investments into upgrades of their production
capabilities, Aurubis reported an equity ratio of 42% and a debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.5 in the 2Q12/13 report.

Since February, the weakness of metal prices caused by growth concerns and the entire discussion regarding relief
changes for energy-intense companies in Germany is weighing on the share price of Aurubis. Based on current valuation,
an investor only pays an average 10-year multiple for the expected earnings of the current year. We apply a P/E of 11.5 to our
2013/14 estimates.

Analyst: Christian Obst, CEFA +49 89 5150 1805

christian.obst@baaderbank.de

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E

Sales (EUR mn) 9,865.4 13,335.8 13,789.2 13,554.1 14,194.9
EBITDA (EUR mn) 581.5 655.3 717.7 407.8 473.4
EBIT reported (EUR mn) 475.1 531.6 586.1 282.8 345.4
EBIT operating (EUR mn) 186.7 496.6 366.1 282.8 345.4
Net income (EUR mn) 324.2 372.5 361.7 161.5 215.2
EPS reported (EUR) 7.93 8.51 8.05 3.59 4.79
EPS operating (EUR) 2.92 4.24 4.60 3.59 4.79
DPS (EUR) 1.00 1.20 1.35 1.35 1.45
P/E adjusted (x) 4.3 4.7 5.0 11.7 8.8
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8
EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.2 2.9 5.1 4.4
EV/EBIT (x) 4.0 3.9 3.5 7.4 6.0
ROCE (%) 6.3 14.3 8.8 6.6 7.8
Net debt/EBITDA (x) 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

page 1 see last page for disclaimer

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

SUMMARY
Buy; Target price: EUR 55.00

We confirm our Buy rating but reduce the target price from EUR 64.50 to EUR 55.00. Reasons:

1. Reduced expectation for sulphuric acid and precious metal prices.

2. A more cautious calculation for the profits in the BU 2 due to some standstill, a less favorable input mix and
lower RCs due to tight scrap markets.

3. An ongoing weak demand for copper products combined with last restructuring measures.

We confirm our view on Aurubis as a company with the capability to go on a path of structural earnings
growth. We recommend Aurubis as a company with good mid- and long-term growth prospects.
The management invests into the upgrading of the production facilities and looks for further external
investment targets.

Reasons for our recommendation: Current market capitalization values Aurubis below 10-year average
multiples based on 2012/13 consensus earnings estimates which came down >12% ytd. The current value
ignores 1) any upside from the rising throughput after the relining measures, 2) any impact from the new anode
slime treatment, and 3) an increase in profitability of the product business after the end of the reorganization.

Risks to our recommendation: Since February, the weakness of sulphuric acid and metal prices, particularly
silver & gold as well as tight scrap markets caused by growth concerns and the entire discussion regarding
relief changes for energy-intense company in Germany is weighing on the share price of Aurubis.

We reduce our 2012/13 and 2013/14 estimates as 2012/13 remains a year with earnings decline. In the 2Q report,
Aurubis informs about a satisfactory result (no change vs. the 1Q wording) for the entire business year.
But earnings will be down yoy due to the weakness on sulphuric acid, the copper scrap markets and the precious
metal prices. The former consensus expectation for the operating EBT was around EUR 280mn but declined
towards EUR 250mn. We now calculate with EUR 231mn. For 2013/14, we calculate with EUR 307mn.

EXPECTATION CHANGES
External sales (EUR mn) 2012/13E 2013/14E
previous 14,420 15,493
new 13,554 14,195
delta (%) -6.0 -8.4

Operating EBIT (EUR mn) 2012/13E 2013/14E

previous 346 400
new 283 345
delta (%) -18.3 -13.6

EPS (EUR) 2012/13E 2013/14E

previous 4.74 5.62
new 3.59 4.79
delta (%) -24.2 -14.8
Source: Baader Bank AG Equity Research

page 2 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

VALUATION
We apply a P/E of 11.5 to our reduced 2013/14 earnings estimates which are roughly 20% above consensus.
The multiple is close to a 10-year average of the 12-months forwards P/E. Our estimates are ahead of consensus
as we like to emphasize the earnings potential of the current measures taken. Consensus earnings estimates for
the next financial year are moving also down with the reduction of 2012/13 estimates. Despite an ongoing rise in
equity, Aurubis was able to increase average RoE slightly over the last 10 years. Important in our view is the
strong performance after the Lehmann crash, which points to the resilience of the business model. We would
apply a price/book ratio of at least 1 to Aurubis.

THE MORE CAUTIOUS VIEW ON 2012/13

Reduction of our estimates

Copper price volatility affects the material, which is locked in the process and is roughly 20% of the production
of a year. Any other in/out flow is hedged on a daily basis. Aurubis is a price taker on markets for concentrate
and scrap. Roughly 2/3 of the raw material comes from mostly oversea mines, and 1/3 derives from domestic scrap.
Aurubis transforms this raw material into anodes, then cathodes and finally into products such as wire rod
or shapes. There are daily net hedges of all metals. Most products markets are facing overcapacities.

We now calculate with a yoy decline of the gross profit of EUR 63.5mn. Declining metal prices take their toll.
Not only the copper prices declined by more than 10% ytd, but the sharp fall of gold (more than -20% ytd) and
silver (more than EUR -30% ytd) prices have a negative effect on the 2012/13 profit. We expected almost no
profit improvement in the current business year since 2011/12 was a record year, and Aurubis has indicated
relining and investments in the Business Unit 1 and 2 and a restructuring in the Business Unit 3. In February,
the management also talked about the weakening of sulphuric acid prices and declining refining charges.
On top of that, we show a calculation how declining gold and silver prices might influence the gross profit of Aurubis.

TC/RCs are on the rise driven by higher output from the mines combined with a lower improvement on his
smelter side.

We calculate with sulphuric acid prices down more than EUR 10-15 per ton yoy. During 2H13 there might
come some support from standstill of European smelters (supply) and a seasonal uptick from the main
customers like the chemical and fertilizer industries.

The cathode premium was up a bit yoy. Current premiums for spot availability rose well above EUR 150 (CIF)
per ton in Asia, but Aurubis sold most of its cathodes before the latest increase.

CALCULATED GROSS PROFIT DELTA 201/12 - 2012/13 FROM COPPER CONCENTRATE AND SULPHURIC ACID
Copper concentrate 2011/12E 2012/13E delta in % or EUR mn
Concentrate thousand tons 2.035 2.000 -2%
TC per ton of concentrate USD/t 68.0 75.0 10%
Charges for concentrate treatment (TC) USD mn 138.4 150.0 8%
Copper cathodes mn tons 0.57 0.56
Copper content in concentrate % 28 28
thousand pounds 1,256 1,235
Copper content
pound/t 2,205 2,205 0%
Charges for copper refining (RC) US cent/pound 6.8 7.5 10%
Charges for copper refining (RC) USD mn 85.4 92.6 8%
Gross profit TC/RCs USD mn 223.8 242.6 18.8

Sulphuric acid 2011/12E 2012/13E delta in % or EUR mn

Production mn tons 2,050 2,050 0%
Price per ton EUR 33.0 20.0 -39%
Gross profit sulphuric acid EUR mn 67.7 41.0 -26.7
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

17 July 2013 page 3

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

CALCULATED GROSS PROFIT DELTA 2011/12 - 2012/13 FROM CATHODE PREMIUMS

Cathode premium 2011/12E 2012/13E delta in % or EUR mn
BU I thousand tons 944 945 0%
BU II thousand tons 203 200 -1%
Cathode premium EUR/t 64 70 11%
avg. cathode premium USD/t 86 93 8%
Gross profit from cathode premium EUR mn 73.1 80.7 7.6
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

Refining charges for scrap respond to rising volatility of copper spot prices. This is especially true in times of
declining copper prices. Any sharp deterioration of the copper price is causing tightness at the scrap market
because traders take a more cautious approach. This has not changed much until now. Two phases of a sharp
drop in April and June affected refining charges negatively. Aurubis had two scheduled maintenance phases
in 1Q (KRS) and 2Q (anode oven) with a negative impact on volume. Furthermore, the performance of the
re-ramped KRS facilities was somewhat below plan and the input mix was less favorable.

CALCULATED GROSS PROFIT DELTA 2011/12 - 2012/13 FROM COPPER SCRAP

Recycling 2011/12E 2012/13E delta in % or EUR mn
Copper scrap (>80% copper content) thousand tons 124 122 -2%
Copper content % 90 90
RC per ton of copper content EUR/t 285 200 -30%
Gross profit copper scrap EUR mn 31.8 22.0 -9.8

Complex material (KRS) thousand tons 260 250 -4%

Copper content % 50 50
Copper from complex materials thousand tons 130.0 125.0
RC per ton of copper content EUR/t 600 600 0%
Gross profit complex materials EUR mn 78.0 75.0 -3.0
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

Aurubis is talking about an unfavorable mix in the BU 2. The related decline in profit, in our view, is not mainly
related to the mix (less precious metal in the concentrate and scrap) but the decline in precious metal prices.
The figures in the table below are our estimates. We have reduced our calculation for gold and silver from
the average of 2011/12 to the ytd average 2012/13. Our new volume assumptions are based on the 1H13
performance with only a small uptick in 2H as we believe that the operations will run more smoothly after two
standstills and relining.

CALCULATED GROSS PROFIT DELTA 201/12 - 2012/13 FROM PRECIOUS METALS

Avg. price Value Value Aurubis Gross profit
Precious Metals tons per oz oz per ton (USD mn) EUR/USD (EUR mn) recovery rate (%) (EUR mn)
Gold 37 1,750 32,000 2,072 1.35 1,535 3.0 46.0
Gold 39 1,500 32,000 1,872 1.32 1,418 3.0 42.5
-3.5

Silver 1,213 31.0 32,000 1,203 1.35 891 7.0 62.4

Silver 1,092 25.0 32,000 873 1.32 662 7.0 46.3
-16.1
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

The demand side for copper products shows almost no improvement. We take a cautious approach on
volume and surcharge. 2012/13 should be the last year of restructuring in the Business Unit 3 after the
acquisition of the Luvata rolling business. We expect that the management has to also think about a possible
divestment of the reorganized strip business if it will remain far below the expected returns in the next two years.

page 4 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

CALCULATED GROSS PROFIT DELTA 201/12 - 2012/13 FROM COPPER PRODUCTS

Copper Products 2011/12E 2012/13E delta in % or EUR mn
Wire rod thousand tons 646.0 625.0 -3%
Surcharge per ton EUR/t 120.0 120.0 0%
Gross profit wire rod EUR mn 77.5 75.0 -2.5

Shapes thousand tons 164.0 165.0 1%

Surcharge per ton EUR/t 150.0 140.0 -7%
Gross profit shapes EUR mn 24.6 23.1 -1.5

Strips (flat rolled) & others thousand tons 217.0 200.0 -8%
Surcharge per ton EUR/t 673.7 623.7 -7%
Gross profit shapes EUR mn 146.2 124.7 -21.5
restructuring shapes -12.5
Delta products -37.97
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

After the gross profit line. Our new calculated yoy gross profit delta between 2011/12 and 2012/13,
shown in the tables above, comes to EUR-78.3mn. We expect personnel cost to increase by approx. EUR 5mn
due to the new anode slime treatment facility and some other adjustments. The yoy EBIT decline is calculated
with EUR -83.3mn. We do not expect a meaningful change of the net interest line. Aurubis guided for a further
pay back of a Schuldschein in the amount of EUR ~170mn. Aurubis reported a negative EUR 29mn in the other
financial cost line in 2011/12. This was mainly caused by the decline of the Salzgitter share price. The delta in the
Aurubis business year was roughly EUR 5 per share. Keeping this in mind, we can expect a further negative
impact since the Salzgitter share traded around EUR 30 at the end of September 2012. We calculate with at least
EUR 10mn negative impact again. All these changes led to an operating EBIT expectation of EUR 304.2mn vs.
EUR 366mn the year before and an EBT of EUR 230.7mn.

The energy discussion

A total redemption of the relief could cost Aurubis up to EUR 50mn said the CEO in the German
newspaper Handelsblatt on 7 May. The German EEG (Renewable Energy Act): A strong increase of the
reallocation charges is expected to intensify in the coming years due to catch-up effects and an ongoing
expansion of wind and solar production capacities. Relief is crucial for energy-intensive global-orientated sectors.
Most likely the new government will decide about a new regulation after the election on 22 September. We expect
that at least the major part of the relief for companies such as Aurubis will remain as it is. Otherwise imparity of
the competitive environment will rise.

Energy use: During 2012/13, Aurubis expects consumption of 1.8 TWh of electricity and 1.3 TWh of gas.
Approximately 1 TWh of electricity is related to the German facilities (~800 MWh from Hamburg and Lnen).

Grid use accounts for about one-third of the electricity price and one-fourth of the gas price. Aurubis received
grid cost relief because they ensure grid stability with predictable consistent consumption. However, due to the
German Electricity Taxation act, costs have risen by 60% to over EUR 1mn during 2011/12. We expect no
meaningful impact on groups earnings in the medium term.

Emission trading: Aurubis as an energy-intense company that emits carbon dioxide got appropriate
emission certificates.

17 July 2013 page 5

Equity Research
COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis
AURUBIS OVERVIEW
Sub-segment Structure & Strategy
Raw material
Copper concentrate Aurubis 2011/12: 2.1mn tons of
Supplied by > 30 mines concentrate and 1,147 tons of cathodes
Long-term supply Market: Slightly rising smelter capacity
contracts (up to 10Y). (China, Africa). 3-5% p.a. increase of
TC/RC duration concentrate supply. Rising amount of more
<1.5 years complex concentrate. Standard contract
structure to pay for >96% of the metal
Copper scrap Scrap supply differs with the copper price
Supplied by >400 Visibility approx. 3 months
scrap dealers
Complex scrap Complex scrap capacity ~75,000 tons
Supplied by scrap - thereof ~25,000 tons e-scrap
dealers
By-products/elements
Sulfuric acid One ton per ton of concentrate.
Product for fertilizer, chemical industry, mining
Iron silicate One ton per ton of concentrate.
No valuable usage
Gold and silver 2011/12: 1,222 tons of silver, 37 tons of gold
2010-12: faster extraction of by-elements
Others Aluminum fluoride, Ni-sulphate,
Cu-sulphate, Selenium etc.
Cathodes
Possibility to sell cathodes to the LME at
spot price. Aurubis uses most of the
cathodes for internal production
Copper products
Wire rod World leading rod producer.
<70 % of product sales Capacity of ~1mn tons
2011/12 only 646' tons produced
Continuous cast shape Products for semi-finished products
fabricators and tube rolling mills
Capacity >200,000 tons
2011/12 production of 164,000 tons
Pre-rolled strips Schwermetall (50% Aurubis)
- the production step behind the shape
production produces for semis fabricators
in the group
Capacity >200,000 tons
2011/12 production of 188' tons
Flat rolled products Capacity increased with the acquisition of
(Finished strips) the Luvata rolling capacities and their
vertical strip casting
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research
page 6
Price structure
TC/RCs
- spot market metal prices minus treatment 2 mines had supply problems
(per dmt of concentrate) and
- refining (per pound/oz of payable metal) Outlook: slight increase of average
RCs
- spot market metal prices minus refining
charges
RCs
- spot market metal prices minus refining
charges
3, 6 & 12 months contracts
Almost zero earnings impact.
RCs + free metal extraction which is the
difference between payable metal and
recovery rate
- Boliden: 4% gold, 8% silver
Structural cathode deficit in Europe.
Cathode premium LME price + premium
(yearly definition by the market leader
Codelco). Logistic/financing costs from
South America to Europe
Copper price + cathode premium +
surcharge (depending on supply/demand)
Price structure
internal at market prices
Price structure
internal at market prices
Copper price + cathode premium +
surcharge (depending on supply/demand)
Outlook
Spot TC/RCs: around USD 80/8,
TC/RCs due to new mining capacity and
some maintenance shutdown's during 2013
Scrap supply weak as the copper price
declined. Now it stabilizes with a slight
positive effect of RCs
RCs > EUR 500 per ton
Current prices are down EUR 10-15 per ton
yoy towards EUR 30. Increase expected
during late 2H due to smelter standstills
and rising demand from fertilizer industry
2013-14: increasing production capacity
but prices came down significantly, which
has a negative effect on the profit delta
between payable and recovery rate
Positive profit contribution.
But no indication about the amount
Cathode premium 2013 CIF Rotterdam
Currently USD 86, spot in Asia >USD 150
New price: late autumn
Currently weak end markets
Auto remains weak in Europe.
Overall demand rises slightly in Europe
Healthy demand in the USA
17 July 2013
Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

AURUBIS GROUP
Aurubis is the leading integrated European copper company with a proven ability to increase earnings
structurally. Aurubis was able to increase its operating profit structurally over the last ten years and has enough
potential to proceed on that path. Programs to expand and optimize the internal workflow and increase volume of
material which generates higher margins should support earnings. The management has also shown the ability to
integrate acquisitions smoothly (Cumerio, Luvata). The reorganization of the product unit (after the takeover of
Luvata) should be able to increase EBIT by a low double-digit number. The other driver for structural earnings
improvement is the successful integration of acquired companies. An important step was 1999 the acquisition of
Httenwerke Kayser, now the heart of the state-of-the-art recycling unit of the company. In 2007, Norddeutsche Affinerie
merged with Cumerio a major growth step, mainly for the Primary Copper unit. The management reached
acquisition targets in the given time frame with almost no extra costs. In 2011, Aurubis took over
Luvata Rolled Products to strengthen the product line.

The management is working on an ongoing improvement of the internal production capacity and structural
changes of the mix towards more profitable and more complex input material. With the current investments,
mainly in Hamburg, Aurubis takes two additional steps in that direction. One is the extension of the anode slime
treatment and the relining of the smelter. Having both in place and running at full capacity, we believe that the
operating EBIT, with some market support, can be increased by up to EUR 50mn per annum.

Aurubis optimized its stand-alone position as a leading integrated copper company and developed the
European platform by integrating Cumerio in 2007 and the Luvata rolling business in 2011. The next move
on the agenda to become a global player has to be towards the third milestone, which Aurubis has been
displaying in their presentations since years. The company is currently working on further improvements of the
European activities and an optimization of the expanded business unit Copper Products. This includes:

1. Rising concentrate throughput after the relining measures in Hamburg in September/October 2013 and Pridop
until the end of 2014.

2. Higher anode slime treatment capacity with the expectation to produce a higher volume of precious and other
metals. The ramp-up started in June 2013.

3. An optimized production structure after the closing of two sites and optimization of the production plans on the
remaining sites. Completion is expected until the end of 2013.

2Q12/13 reporting. Aurubis reported 2Q sales of 3,313mn, a 9% decline yoy (Baader E EUR 3,459mn).
The average copper price declined 4.6% yoy to USD 7,931 per ton in 2Q12/13. The operating EBT came in
with EUR 76 mn (Baader (E) EUR 78mn) vs. EUR 83mn in 1Q. By deducting the entire positive extraordinary
1Q effect of EUR 65mn, the reported EBIT is 11mn (EUR 148mn in 1Q). Sulfuric acid prices declined EUR 10-15 yoy.
Calculating with 500 tons, the impact was between EUR >5mn negative. The main reason should be the sluggish
demand from the chemical and fertilizer industry caused by declining demand and the long winter.

The counterbalance effect. Low precious metal inventories at the quarterly balance sheet date led to positive
effects in 1Q12/13 results and were completely neutralized by the inventory build-up in 2Q12/13.

Below the EBITDA line

Depreciation: The acquisition of Luvata created a bad will of EUR 100mn which led to a PPA of EUR -10mn p.a.
We calculate with capex roughly in-line with depreciation of EUR ~125mn.

Net financial result: We calculate with a slight yoy improvement of the net financial result since we are
calculating with a positive FCF. The negative EUR ~30mn and EUR 10mn in 2011/12 and 2012/13 are related to
a revaluation of a Salzgitter stake.

Tax rate: Aurubis is guiding for a tax rate of 30%.

17 July 2013 page 7

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

Balance sheet

Aurubis has a healthy balance sheet and is able to produce positive free cash flows.

Equity: On 31 March, Aurubis had an equity ratio of 42.3%, which we see as very comfortable for a cyclical
company with a positive free cash flow.

Debt structure: Aurubis has room for investments. The groups EBITDA/net interest declined from
the already low 0.5 to 0.1 yoy. A positive mix of increasing EBITDA and lower debt contributed.

Latest capital market transactions: In the first quarter of the business year 2010/11, Aurubis increased capital
by 10%. With an issuing price of EUR 41.50, Aurubis received EUR 166mn. The proceeds were used for the
Luvata acquisition. In September 2011, Aurubis issued a EUR 450mn bonded loan mainly to repay bank lines in
the amount of EUR 365mn. Further paybacks are expected.

page 8 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

THE BUSINESS UNITS REPORTS AND OUTLOOK

QUARTELY PERFORMANCE OF THE OPERATING EBIT

Primary Copper: Recycling/Precious Metals:

Average quarterly EBIT above EUR 60mn should be achievable The target is a quarterly EBIT close to EUR 30mn

EUR mn EUR mn
120 70

100 60

50
80
40
60
30
40
20
20
101.8

110.0

10
61.6

23.5

77.3

47.7

82.5

45.5

47.0

44.0

58.5

25.0

24.2

60.1

28.9

37.3

31.6

14.0

45.9

18.0

18.7

23.0
0 0
-2.6

-1.2

1Q10/11 -1.2

2Q12/13 -7.0
-20 -10
avg. 13/14E

avg. 13/14E
3Q12/13E

4Q12/13E

3Q12/13E

4Q12/13E
1Q10/11

2Q10/11

3Q10/11

4Q10/11

1Q11/12

2Q11/12

3Q11/12

4Q11/12

1Q12/13

2Q12/13

2Q10/11

3Q10/11

4Q10/11

1Q11/12

2Q11/12

3Q11/12

4Q11/12

1Q12/13
Copper Products: Aurubis Group:
Most exposed to the economy A quarterly EBIT above EUR 100mn should be the target

EUR mn EUR mn EUR mn

30 200 4,000
180 3,600
160 3,200
20 140 2,800
120 2,400
100 2,000
10
80 1,600
60 1,200
29.0

23.1

10.0

14.6

10.7
1.5
0.7

8.4

4.4

5.2

5.0

8.4

40 800
0
150.5

104.0

111.6

147.9
1Q10/11 -13.1

85.3

95.8

96.6

62.1

11.3

89.5

60.5

98.9
-0.6

20 400
0 0

avg. 13/14E
2Q10/11

3Q10/11

4Q10/11

1Q11/12

2Q11/12

3Q11/12

4Q11/12

1Q12/13

2Q12/13

3Q12/13E

4Q12/13E
-10
avg. 13/14E
1Q10/11

2Q10/11

3Q10/11

4Q10/11

1Q11/12

2Q11/12

3Q11/12

4Q11/12

1Q12/13

2Q12/13

3Q12/13E

4Q12/13E

Operating EBIT Sales reported (RS)

Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

Primary Copper

The Primary Copper, Business Unit 1, will suffer from the announced and widely discussed seven week
standstill in September and October 2013. But with the planned pre-production, which will drive working capital
temporarily higher, Aurubis does not expect a meaningful decline of production volume. Furthermore, higher
average TC/RCs should help to compensate for parts of the impact from the relining. The standstill is expected to
cost EUR 50 mn of capex and the company is guiding for approx. EUR 20 mn shortfall in earnings. The EUR 70mn will
be divided between 4Q12/13 and 1Q13/14. The increased production capacity should be able to add up more
than EUR 5mn to the gross profit.

Spot TC/RCs have increased above USD 80/t and 8.0 cents/lb. Some concentrate and scrap supply
disturbances limit further increase currently. New mining projects, production increase 12% yoy in the first two
months, and rising capacity utilization (ICSG: Feb. 82.5 % compared to 81.9% average in 2012) also have a
favorable effect.

Sulfuric acid prices to stabilize in 2H13. The main reason for the sluggish demand from the fertilizer industry
is caused by the long winter. Aurubis expects rising prices in their 4Q (July-Sep.) not only driven by the
demand side, but also supported by the announced standstill of European smelters (for instance: Atlantic copper).
2Q12/13 prices where EUR 10-15 down yoy. Calculating with a production of 500 tons per quarter, the impact
was up to EUR >5mn negative yoy.

17 July 2013 page 9

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

The planned projects. The planned project in Hamburg should increase the concentrate throughput capacity
from 1.1mn to 1.25mn tons. The project is expected to be completed in 2012/13. The planned project in Pirdop
should increase the concentrate throughput capacity from 1.0mn to 1.3mn tons. The project is expected to be
completed in 2013/14.

MID-TERM GROSS PROFIT POTENTIAL FROM CATHODE PRODUCTION

Cathode production Aurubis Gross profit
Electrolysis tons USD per ton of copper Value (USD mn) EUR/USD Value (EUR mn) recovery rate (%) (EUR mn)
- Hamburg 365,000
- Pirdop 227,000
- Olen 352,000
- Lnen 203,000
2011/12 1,147,000 7,844 8,997 1.37 6,567 1.00 65.7
Mid-term expectations 1,250,000 7,200 9,375 1.33 7,049 1.00 70.5
Delta to 2011/12 4.8
tons TC/RC Value (USD mn) EUR/USD Value (EUR mn)
Delta cathodes 103,000 85.0 8.8 1.33 6.6 Delta to 2011/12 6.6
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

1H12/13 reporting. The business unit Primary Copper reported a concentrate throughput of 1,125 tsd tons vs.
1,054 tsd tons the year before. 1H11/12 was influenced by a standstill. Sales declined from EUR 4,128 mn to
EUR 4,005 mn. The operating EBIT came in with EUR 108.9 mn vs. EUR 125.0 mn.

Lower sulfuric acid prices. We calculate with an average decline of ~40% with no further decline in 2H.
Aurubis guided for at least a stabilization in their 4Q (July-Sep.) not only driven by the demand side, but also
supported by the announced standstill of European smelters (KGHM, Boliden and Atlantic Copper).

Recycling/Precious Metals

1H12/13 reporting. The business unit Recycling/Precious Metals reported for KRS throughput of 129,000 tons
vs. 136,000 tons the year before. Sales were roughly stable with EUR 2,467mn vs. EUR 2.452mn. The operating
EBIT came in with EUR 38.9mn vs. EUR 66.2mn. But due to two standstills, cathode production was down from
103 tons to 99 tons yoy.

The scrap supply continues to tighten on the European copper market. The volatile pricing situation forces
traders to an ongoing built-up of stocks in their warehouses. We expect the supply situation to ease as soon as
the copper price stabilizes.

Outlook: The BU2 had a planned 16 days standstill of the KRS recycling facility and a further relining of the
anode oven (every 16 months) which reduces the throughput of the facility by approx. 10% yoy. A concern
remains a falling copper price because scrap traders hold back material in times of declining prices which led
to lower RCs.

Aurubis is well supplied until the end of summer and we do not believe that we are at the beginning of a
continuing decline of the copper price. On the positive side, the extended precious metal production started
production in June 2013 with a possible first impact in the near term. We expect that the new production
should be able to deliver up to a medium double-digit mn gross profit in the medium term.

The planned project. The increase in value-added by processing the internal precious metal bearing anode
slime in-house. The operation started mid-2013. Going forward, the plant should not only be able to treat the
current capacity of anode slime internally, but enable Aurubis to change the mix of concentrate and scrap further
towards higher precious metal bearing content.

page 10 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

MID-TERM GROSS PROFIT POTENTIAL FROM PRECIOUS METALS

avg. price Value Value Aurubis
Precious Metals tons per oz (USD) oz per ton (USD mn) EUR/USD (EUR mn) recovery rate (%) EUR mn
2011/12
Gold 37 1,750.0 32,000 2,072 1.37 1,512 3.00 45.4
Silver 1,213 31.0 32,000 1,203 1.37 878 7.00 61.5

Mid-term expectations
Gold 60 1,600.0 32,000 3,072 1.33 2,310 3.00 69.3
Silver 1,300 25.0 32,000 1,040 1.33 782 7.00 54.7
Gross profit 124.0
Delta to 2011/12 17.2
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

Copper Products

1H12/13 reporting. The business unit Copper Products reported a wire rod production of 289,000 tons, a decline
of roughly 14% yoy due to weak European end markets. Sales declined from EUR 4,701mn to EUR 4,681mn.
The operating EBIT came in with EUR 12.2mn vs. EUR 15.3mn.

Outlook: The BU 3 is facing an ongoing tough environment. Demand for wire rod and shapes in Europe remains
on a very low level. Aurubis is currently fighting to regain market share which led to lower premium charges.
The business unit faced restructuring charges of EUR ~15mn in 2011/12 due to the closing of sites in Sweden
and Switzerland. There is no plan for further adjustments in 2012/13. If demand remains sluggish during the
entire year, the 2011 acquired Luvata would not reach much more than the break-even level of the year before.
With some support from the economy and the end of the structural reorganization during the current year, the flat
rolled business should reach margins of at least 2.5%.

The current projects. Aurubis closed a small plant in Switzerland and relocated capacities from Sweden to
the Netherlands and the USA. Higher capacity utilization, lower costs and a better production mix should
improve the competitive position significantly. The reorganization will be finished end-2013.

MID-TERM GROSS PROFIT POTENTIAL FROM THE REORGANIZATION OF COPPER PRODUCTS & INTEGRATION OF LUVATA
USD per ton Utilization Sales Sales Gross profit
Luvata tons of copper rates (%) (USD mn) EUR/USD (EUR mn) margin (%) EUR mn
Capacity 280,000
- Buffalo 150,000
- Pori 45,000
- Zutphen/others 85,000
Production
2011/12 167,000 7,844 60 1,310 1.37 956 0.25 2.4
Mid-term expectations 238,000 7,200 85 1,714 1.33 1,288 3.00 38.7
Delta to 2011/12 36.3
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

17 July 2013 page 11

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

VALUATION
Almost no growth or margin expansion included in the current valuation

We apply a P/E of 11.5 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.5 to our 2013/14 earnings estimates which are roughly 20%
above consensus. We have reduced our top-line estimates by EUR 1.2bn due to lower average metal prices but
changed our 2013/14 earnings view only marginally, which is also true for the volume assumptions.

We confirm our positive view on the mid- and long-term perspective of the group supported by the news flow
regarding the internal measures which we highlighted in the update.

Coverage: According to Bloomberg, Aurubis is covered by 17 analysts with 7 Buy/OP and 7 Hold and
3 Sell/Underperform ratings. The average target price is EUR 51.50, indicating a performance potential of ~25%.

No expectations. The DCF-model below shows that there is almost no sales growth or EBIT improvement
included in the current value of the company. More important, we have to calculate with a decline of the FCF over
the years and no long-term growth to achieve in the current valuation of Aurubis. This means that the market
believes in almost no growth despite the new measures taken.

page 12 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

To put it in a perspective: A 10-year view on expectations and valuation metrics

CONSENSUS EBIT AND EBIT MARGIN EXPECATIONS

Structurally rising Is the copper price driving the performance?

EUR mn USD/t EUR

400 12,000 60

350
10,000 50
300
8,000 40
250

200 6,000 30

150
4,000 20
100
2,000 10
50

0 0 0
Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13
Consensus EBIT FY2E Average Copper Aurubis (RS)

EV/EBITDA AND P/E 12-MONTHS FORWARD BASED ON CONSENSUS ESTIMATES

For a company delivering ROCE of ~24% in the last two years, Declining metal prices and economic growth concerns drove
we would see a multiple closer to 5.5 as more appropriate multiples down

7 22
20
6
18
5 16
14
4 12

3 10
8
2 6
4
1
2
0 0
Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13
EV/EBITDA FY2 Average P/E 12M fwd Average

SHARE & AVERAGE CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE, PRICE/BOOK VS ROE BASED ON CONSENSUS ESTIMATES

Too much uncertainty Hovering around an average of 1

EUR %
60 18 1.80
55 16 1.60
50
45 14 1.40
40 12 1.20
35 10 1.00
30
25 8 0.80
20 6 0.60
15 4 0.40
10
5 2 0.20
0 0 0.00
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13

Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13

Share price Target price RoE FY2 Price/Book (RS) P/B average

Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

17 July 2013 page 13

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

Aurubis DCF (a calculation to explain the current share price)

External sales 2012/13E 2013/14E 2014/15E 2015/16E 2016/17E 2017/18E 2018/19E 2019/20E CAGR (%)
Primary Copper EUR mn 671.1 724.8 732.0 739.4 746.8 754.2 761.8 769.4 2.0
Recycling/Precious Metals EUR mn 3,408.9 3,664.6 3,701.2 3,738.2 3,775.6 3,813.4 3,851.5 3,890.0 1.9
Copper products EUR mn 9,460.6 9,791.7 9,889.6 9,988.5 10,088.4 10,189.3 10,291.2 10,394.1 1.4
Others EUR mn 13.5 13.9 15.0 30.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 1.5
Group sales EUR mn 13,554.1 14,194.9 14,337.9 14,496.1 14,625.8 14,771.9 14,919.4 15,068.5 1.5

BU sales yoy
Primary Copper % 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Recycling/Precious Metals % 2.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Copper products % 9.6 9.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Group sales growth % 3.1 4.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

BU EBIT
Primary Copper EUR mn 214.9 245.0 220.0 220.0 215.0 215.0 200.0 185.0 -2.1
Recycling/Precious Metals EUR mn 81.9 95.0 90.0 85.0 85.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 -2.2
Copper products EUR mn 22.4 26.9 25.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 15.0 -5.6
Others EUR mn -15.2 -14.4 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -0.2
Group EBIT EUR mn 304.0 352.5 320.0 313.0 307.0 301.0 275.0 255.0 -2.5

BU EBIT yoy
Primary Copper % 14.0 -10.2 0 -2.3 0 -7.0 -7.5
Recycling/Precious Metals % 16.0 -5.3 -5.6 0 -5.9 -12.5 0
Copper products % 20.0 -7.1 -8.0 -4.3 -4.5 -4.8 -25.0
Group EBIT margin % 15.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7
Interest costs on pensions EUR mn -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0
EBIT - interest on pensions EUR mn 296.0 344.5 312.0 305.0 299.0 293.0 267.0 247.0 CAGR (%)
Tax rate % -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30
NOPAT EUR mn 192.3 236.2 218.4 213.5 209.3 205.1 186.9 172.9 -1.5
+ depreciation & amortization EUR mn 125.0 120.0 120.0 120.4 121.1 122.1 123.4 140.0 1.6
- capital expenditures EUR mn -150.0 -120.0 -123.6 -127.4 -131.1 -135.1 -139.1 -140.0 -1.0
capex in % of sales % -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9
- increase in NWC EUR mn -30.0 -90.0 -31.4 -34.8 -28.5 -32.1 -32.5 -32.8 1.3
- minorities EUR mn -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
Free cash flow (FCF) EUR mn 135.8 144.7 181.8 170.1 169.2 158.5 137.2 138.6 1,848
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Present value of the FCFs EUR mn 45.0 134.6 157.4 136.9 126.7 110.4 88.9 83.5 1,036.3
Sum FCF EUR mn 883
Present value of terminal value EUR mn 1,036
as a percentage of total % 54
Long-term growth rate of FCF % 0
Enterprise value EUR mn 1,920
Net debt EUR mn -33.3
Value of total equity EUR mn 1,886
No. of shares mn 45.0
Value per share EUR 41.9
WACC % 7.50
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

page 14 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

KEY COMPANY DATA

FY 31 Dec. 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E
Share data
EPS (EUR) -1.15 7.93 8.51 8.05 3.59 4.79
Cash flow (EUR) 1.55 10.68 12.19 11.04 6.76 7.75
Dividend ord. (EUR) 0.65 1.00 1.20 1.35 1.35 1.45
Book value (EUR) 25.17 32.06 39.77 48.88 51.60 54.94
Free cash flow (EUR) 12.15 -1.33 3.12 5.12 3.04 3.25

Avg. no. ord. shares (mn) 40.9 40.9 43.8 45.0 45.0 45.0
Avg. share price ord. (EUR) 24.3 33.9 40.1 40.0 42.1 42.1
Avg. market cap. (EUR mn) 995 1,384 1,754 1,799 1,894 1,894
Enterprise value (EUR mn) 1,400 1,912 2,079 2,048 2,090 2,061
Valuation 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E
P/E (x) -21.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 11.7 8.8
P/BV (x) 0.97 1.06 1.01 0.82 0.82 0.77
P/CF (x) 15.7 3.2 3.3 3.6 6.2 5.4
Dividend yield (%) 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.4

EV/Sales (x) 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15

EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 3.3 3.2 2.9 5.1 4.4
EV/EBITA (x) -49.9 4.0 3.9 3.5 7.4 6.0
EV/EBIT (x) -49.9 4.0 3.9 3.5 7.4 6.0

EV/CE (x) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

Adj. ROCE/WACC (x) -0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.8
(EV/CE)/(ROCE/WACC) -5.6 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8
Key company data 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E
Sales growth (%) -20.2 47.5 35.2 3.4 -1.7 4.7
EBITDA growth (%) -79.4 649.8 12.7 9.5 -43.2 16.1
EBITDA margin (%) 1.2 5.9 4.9 5.2 3.0 3.3
EBIT margin (%) -0.4 4.7 3.9 4.2 2.1 2.4
Net margin (%) -0.7 3.2 2.8 2.6 1.2 1.5
Free cash flow margin (%) 7.4 -0.6 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.0
Payout ratio (%) -56.4 12.6 14.1 16.8 37.6 30.3
Gearing (%) 32.1 34.3 12.3 6.3 2.9 1.4
Interest cover (x) -1.9 18.1 34.8 28.6 22.6 26.6
Capex ratio (%) 246.1 152.6 86.9 122.4 110.7 84.5
Capital employed (EUR mn) 1,732 2,162 2,615 2,929 2,986 3,111
Adj. ROCE (%) -1.1 6.3 14.3 8.8 6.6 7.8
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

17 July 2013 page 15

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT

Income statement (EUR mn) 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E
Turnover 6,686.9 9,865.4 13,335.8 13,789.2 13,554.1 14,194.9
Total output 6,534.3 10,011.6 13,494.7 14,120.0 13,583.1 14,194.9
Material expenses 6,064.8 9,018.7 12,456.4 12,802.9 12,569.3 13,122.0
Personnel expenses 269.5 294.8 311.7 420.9 426.0 434.5
EBITDA 77.6 581.5 655.3 717.7 407.8 473.4
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amortization 105.6 106.5 123.7 131.6 125.0 128.0
EBIT reported -28.0 475.1 531.6
EBIT operating -28.0 186.7 496.6 366.1 282.8 345.4
Net interest result -37.4 -28.0 -34.8 -70.4 -52.0 -38.0
Other financial results 0.6 0.5 0.3 -29.4 -10.0 0
EBT -65.4 447.1 496.8 515.7 230.8 307.4
Taxes -19.3 121.3 122.7 152.6 69.2 92.2
Net income before minorities -46.1 325.7 374.2 363.1 161.5 215.2
Minorities -1.0 1.5 1.7 1.4 0 0
Net income (rep.) after minorities -47.1 324.2 372.5 361.7 161.5 215.2
Special items -99.4 -205.0 -187.0 -155.0 0 0
Net income (adjusted) 52.3 119.2 185.5 206.7 161.5 215.2

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET

Balance sheet (EUR mn) 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E
Goodwill 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Intangible assets 17.0 76.9 69.4 69.4 65.4 60.0
Fixed assets 874.4 858.3 970.5 1,245.2 1,270.0 1,275.0
Associated co./Financial investments 53.1 39.1 31.1 35.3 35.1 35.1
Other non current assets (incl. leasing) 64.8 100.8 69.3 69.1 71.1 73.1
Non current assets 1,034.2 1,100.1 1,165.3 1,443.9 1,466.5 1,468.1
Inventory 1,093.6 1,517.6 1,823.0 2,053.3 2,120.5 2,255.5
Trade receivables 269.5 437.4 564.4 524.7 555.0 585.0
Cash and equivalents 257.7 148.1 491.5 669.8 450.5 425.5
Other current assets (incl. leasing) 182.2 207.2 289.2 197.3 205.0 205.0
Current assets 1,803.1 2,310.2 3,168.1 3,445.0 3,331.0 3,471.0
Total assets 2,837.3 3,410.3 4,333.4 4,888.9 4,797.5 4,939.2
Shareholders' equity 1,028.9 1,310.2 1,740.1 2,197.4 2,319.7 2,469.8
Pension provisions 71.5 74.1 107.7 107.8 125.0 130.0
Provisions 304.5 366.0 427.8 552.6 535.0 515.0
Interest bearing debt 588.0 597.8 705.2 807.2 517.8 459.4
Other liabilities 844.5 1,062.2 1,352.5 1,223.9 1,300.0 1,365.0
Total assets 2,837.3 3,410.3 4,333.4 4,888.9 4,797.5 4,939.2
Net debt 330.3 449.7 213.7 137.4 67.3 33.9

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Cash flow (EUR mn) 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13E 2013/14E
Cash flow from operations 644.8 84.9 393.7 383.8 274.2 253.2
of which change in WC -571.2 453.4 329.1 43.3 40.4 125.0
Investment in fixed assets -164.5 -150.6 -115.8 -168.8 -150.0 -120.0
Cash flow from investments -148.4 -139.4 -257.2 -153.8 -137.5 -107.0
Free cash flow 496.4 -54.5 136.5 230.1 136.7 146.2
Proceeds from issuance of shares/ -1.7 0 166.2 0 0 0
buyback of shares
Dividends paid -67.3 -27.6 -46.3 -60.7 -60.7 -65.2
Result from issuance and repayments of debt -314.0 9.8 107.4 102.0 -289.4 -58.4
Cash flow from financing activities -426.4 -52.3 182.2 -61.0 -356.0 -168.6
Change in cash position 70.9 -109.6 319.0 178.3 -219.3 -25.0
Source: Company data, Baader Bank AG Equity Research

page 16 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

Disclaimer
GENERAL STATEMENTS
Our recommendations are based on information that has been diligently compiled by us and is partially based on publicly available sources of third
parties believed to be reliable. We do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information of third parties. All estimates and opinions included
herein represent the independent judgment of the responsible analysts of Baader Bank AG as of the date of publication of this analysis. We reserve the
right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it
altogether without notice. Neither Baader Bank AG nor any of its authorized representatives or employees nor any other person accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
This analysis is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer
(i) to buy or subscribe for any financial instrument, money market or investment instrument or any security; (ii) it is not intended as such an offer for sale
or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any financial instrument, money market or investment instrument or any security and
(iii) is not an advertisement thereof.
The investment opportunities discussed in this analysis may not be suitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives and
timetable for such investment or in the context of their overall financial situation and should not substitute advice from an investment advisor and tax
advisor. Investors must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits
and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal, fiscal and financial position. As this document does not qualify as an investment
recommendation or as a direct investment recommendation, neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection
with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
The investments discussed herein may fluctuate in price or value and may result in losses. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on
the value of investments. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. In particular, the risks associated with an
investment in the relevant financial, money market or investment instrument or security are not explained in their entirety.
This analysis is being distributed by electronic and ordinary mail to professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions
without reliance on this analysis.
Transmission or reproduction of this document without prior written consent from Baader Bank AG is not permitted.
Copyright : Published by Baader Bank AG, Weihenstephaner Strasse 4, 85716 Unterschleissheim, Germany.
Baader Bank AG is a stock corporation (Aktiengesellschaft) organized under the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal place of
business in Munich. It is registered with the District Court (Amtsgericht) in Munich under No. HRB 121537 and supervised by the German Financial
Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BaFin), Marie-Curie-Strasse 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main and Graurheindorfer
Strasse 108, 53117 Bonn. The value added tax identification number of Baader Bank AG is DE 114123893.
POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS
Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz) in conjunction with the German Financial Analysis Regulation
( 5 Section 4 No. 3 Finanzanalyseverordnung) requires Baader Bank AG to disclose potential conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the
subject of the analysis. The following paragraph first indicates which conflicts of interest may be applicable regarding a specific company and
subsequently sets forth a list of all possible keys pursuant to the German Financial Analysis Regulation. Please note that the list of possible keys is only
for explanatory purposes and that solely the potential conflicts set forth under Applicable Key(s) might be present with respect to the specific company.
Applicable Key(s)
adidas 4; Adler Modemrkte 4; Ahold 4; AIXTRON 4; Allgeier 4, 5; alstria office REIT 4; AMAG 4; ams 4; ANDRITZ 4; ASML 4; Atrium 4; Aurubis 4;
BASF SE 4; Bayer 4; BayWa 4; Beiersdorf 4; BMW 4; CA Immo 4; Carrefour 4; conwert 4; Daimler 4; Dassault Systmes 4; DATRON 4, 5;
Deutsche EuroShop 4; Deutsche Wohnen 4; Dialog Semiconductor 4; DIC Asset 4, 5; Drr 4; Fielmann 4; Fuchs Petrolub Pref. 4; GAGFAH 4;
GEA Group 4; GERRY WEBER 4; GILDEMEISTER 4; GSW Immobilien 4; Heidelberger Druck 4; Henkel 4; HUGO BOSS 4; IMMOFINANZ 4; Infineon 4;
IVG Immobilien 4; Jenoptik 4; Jungheinrich Pref. 4; K+S 4; Klckner & Co 4; Krones 4; KUKA 4; KWS SAAT AG 4; LANXESS 4; Linde 4; METRO 4;
Micronas 4; Nabaltec 4; Nemetschek 4; NORMA Group 4; PATRIZIA Immobilien 4; Prime Office REIT 4; PUMA 4; Rational 4; REALTECH 4; RHI 4;
Sage 4; Salzgitter 4; SAP 4; Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment (SBO) 4; Semperit 4; SGL Group 4; Siemens 4; Sixt 4; SKW Metallurgie 4;
Software AG 4; STMicroelectronics 4; Sss MicroTec 4; Symrise 4; TAG Immobilien 4; Temenos 4; Tesco 4; ThyssenKrupp 4; TOM TAILOR 4;
VIB Vermgen 3, 4, 5; voestalpine 4; Volkswagen Pref. 4; VTG 4; Wienerberger 4; Wirecard 4

Key 1: Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it own at least 1% of the capital stock of the company that is the subject of the analysis.
Key 2: The company that is the subject of the analysis owns at least 1% of the capital stock of Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it.
Key 3: Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it participated in leading a consortium for the public issuance of securities of the company that is
the subject of the analysis within twelve months preceding the publication of the analysis.
Key 4: Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the company that is the subject
of the analysis or in derivatives relating thereto or is otherwise in charge to quote bids and request prices for the securities issued by the company
that is the subject of the analysis on the relevant stock exchange or market.
Key 5: The company that is the subject of the analysis and Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it concluded an agreement for services in
connection with investment banking transactions in the twelve months prior to this analysis, for which Baader Bank AG received a fee.
Key 6: The company that is the subject of the analysis and Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it have concluded an agreement for the
preparation of an analysis.
Key 7: Employees of Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it are members of the board of directors of the company (or equivalent
management and supervisory organs under applicable law) that is the subject of the analysis. Members of the board of directors (or equivalent
management and supervisory organs under applicable law) of the company that is the subject of the analysis sit on the management board
and/or supervisory board of Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it.
Key 8: The responsible analysts of Baader Bank AG sit on the supervisory/management board of the company that is the subject of the analysis.
Key 9: The responsible analysts of Baader Bank AG own a significant amount or at least 0.1% of the capital stock of the company that is subject of the analysis.
Key 10: The responsible analysts of Baader Bank AG disclosed a draft of the analysis to the company that is the subject of the analysis for fact reviewing
purposes and changes were made to the analysis before publication.
Key 11: Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with it may hold significant open derivative positions in the stocks of the company that is the subject
of the analysis which are not delta-neutral.

17 July 2013 page 17

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

RECOMMENDATIONS, RATINGS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

Financial analyses with recommendation changes (rating or target price) published in the twelve months prior to the publication of this financial analysis
covering the same financial instruments or issuers.

Aurubis price chart Percentage of companies within this rating category

Buy: 54.1%
Hold: 35.3%
Sell: 10.6%

Baader Bank AG and/or a company affiliated with and/or employees or clients may take positions in, and may purchase and/or sale the securities or
related financial instruments as principal or agent.
Baader Bank AG uses a three-tier recommendation system for the stocks in its formal coverage: Buy, Hold, or Sell:
A Buy is applied when the expected total return over the next twelve months is higher than the stock's cost of equity.
A Hold is applied when the expected total return over the next twelve months is lower than its cost of equity but higher than zero.
A Sell is applied when the stock's expected total return over the next twelve months is negative.
We employ three further categorizations for stocks in our coverage:
Restricted: A rating and/or financial forecast and/or target price is not disclosed due to compliance or other regulatory considerations such as blackout
period or conflict of interest.
Coverage in transition: Due to changes in the research team, the disclosure of a stock's rating and/or target price and/or financial information are
temporarily suspended. The stock remains in the research universe and disclosures of relevant information will be resumed in due course.
Not rated: Suspension of coverage.
Valuation methodology
Company valuations are based on the following valuation methods: Multiple-based models (P/E, P/cash flow, EV/sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA,
EV/EBITDA), peer-group comparisons, historical valuation approaches, discount models (DCF, DVMA, DDM), break-up value approaches or asset-
based evaluation methods. Furthermore, recommendations are also based on the economic profit approach. Valuation models are dependent on
macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, exchange rates, raw materials, and on assumptions about the economy. Furthermore, market sentiment
affects the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on
developments specific to individual industries. Our recommendations and target prices derived from the models might therefore change accordingly. The
investment ratings generally relate to a 12-month horizon. They are, however, also subject to market conditions and can only represent a snapshot. The
ratings may in fact be achieved more quickly or slowly than expected, or need to be revised upward or downward.
Frequency of reports and updates
It is intended that each of these companies be covered at least once a year, in the event of key operations and/or changes in the recommendation.
DECLARATION OF RESPONSIBLE ANALYSTS
The remuneration of the responsible analysts has not been, and will not be, dependent on the recommendations or views expressed in this analysis,
neither directly nor indirectly.
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS TO AVOID AND PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
In order to proactively prevent conflicts of interest, Baader Bank AG has established a compliance program. Such compliance program includes, among
other things, confidentiality measures through separation, or so called Chinese walls. These could be virtual or physical barriers to limit the flow of
information between different departments, groups or individuals within the bank. The compliance program is monitored by Baader Bank AG's
compliance department.
ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS OF JURISDICTIONS SET FORTH BELOW

Notice to Investors in Austria

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities
financial instruments and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to
enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be
reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or part, for any purpose. This analysis is of general nature and does
not contain specific advice and does not satisfy individual needs. The information contained in this document in particular does not constitute investment
advice. Investors should therefore consult with their investment advisors prior to investment decisions regarding financial instruments analyzed herein.
Notice to Investors in Canada
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement, a solicitation of an offer to buy, an offer to sell or a public
offering of the securities described herein in Canada. The information herein is not intended to provide any financial, accounting, tax or legal advice. This
document may contain forward-looking information with respect to future results. Wherever possible, words such as anticipate, believe, expects,
intends, should and similar expressions have been used to identify forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements are based upon a
number of assumptions and are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise this document or any
forward-looking information to reflect new events or circumstances.

page 18 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

Notice to Investors in Finland

This report does not represent an offer or an invitation to buy, sell or subscribe for shares in any of the company under analysis. All views expressed
herein are those of the author(s) at the time of writing and no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient
of this report shall exist in the event that any matter, opinion, projection, forecast or estimate contained herein changes or subsequently becomes
inaccurate. This report does not take into regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the knowledge or experience of any specific
person who may receive this report and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to take, or not to take, any particular investment action. This
report is for private use only.
Notice to Investors in France
Given the fact that this document contains a general disclosure providing that it does not constitute an offer for sale or subscription of financial
instruments, this said document shall be considered as a financial analysis within the meaning of Article L. 544-1 of the French financial and monetary
code. It does not constitute an investment advice according to French regulations and therefore as such, it had not been reviewed or approved by,
neither made under the supervision of, the Autorit des Marchs Financiers, the French Regulator. The author of the document is not licensed in France
and therefore it is not under the review of the French Regulator either.
Notice to Investors in Italy
This document is addressed to (i) professional customers as defined in article 26, paragraph 1, letter d) of the Regulation on Intermediaries approved
through CONSOB Resolution no 16190 of October 29, 2007 (Reg. 16190) and to (ii) qualified counterparties, as defined in article 6, paragraph
2-quater, letter d) nos. 1), 2), 3), 4) and 5) of the Consolidated Text of Finance Legislative Decree no 58 of February 24, 1998, as amended, and
therefore its circulation or distribution to prospective retail customers which under the relevant definition given by article 26, paragraph 1, letter e) of
Reg. 16190 are those individuals or entities which arent neither professional customers nor qualified counterparties is prohibited. Baader Bank AG
will not be responsible for any subsequent circulation/dissemination of this document after its delivery to the intended recipient/addressee from Baader
Bank AG. Readers are invited to read the above General Statements, in particular, without limitation, the second paragraph, points (i) to (iii), on the
non-offer/solicitation/advertisement.
Notice to Investors in Liechtenstein
The information contained in this document constitutes neither an invitation nor an offer nor a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in the
company described or any other specific product or to enter into transactions of any kind. The information in this document does neither constitute an aid
for the reader in taking decisions nor a prospectus under the Liechtenstein Persons and Companies Act (Personen- und Gesellschaftsrecht, PGR) or
under the Liechtenstein Securities Prospectus Act (Wertpapierprospektgesetz). With regard to a specific investment it cannot be excluded that
Baader Bank AG or one of its subsidiaries or one of their products or any of their employees have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in
such investment or in any of the securities linked to it or provide advisory or other services to a company linked to such investment. Neither Baader Bank AG
nor any of its authorized representatives or employees nor any of its subsidiaries accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage (including both
direct and indirect as well as consequential damages) incurred by an investor and arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise
arising in connection therewith."
Notice to Investors in the Netherlands
This document and the information provides therein is wholly indicative, and for information purposes only and constitutes neither an offer (or part
thereof) to purchase or otherwise acquire or an invitation to make an offer to purchase or otherwise acquire any securities or other financial instruments
(both within the meaning of the Netherlands Financial Markets Supervision Act (Wet op Het Financieel Toezicht) (the "Act") nor an investment advise or
investment recommendation. This document is directed to and intended solely for use by qualified investors (gekwalificeerde beleggers) as such term is
defined in the Act.
The content of this document which have not been registered with or approved by any regulatory body in the Netherlands, is confidential and its contents
may not be reproduced, re-distributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose whatsoever without the express authority of Baader Bank AG.
Notice to Investors in Spain
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer, invitation, recommendation or request to make any operation with financial instruments and
neither must be considered as base for the taking of investment decisions. This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for
information purposes and may not be reproduced, distributed, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or part, for any
purpose. This document should be made available in Spain solely to investors qualified as professional investors (within the meaning of Spanish
Securities Market Act 24/1988, Article 78 bis).The information contained in this document has been obtained from reliable sources. Notwithstanding the
above, we may not result responsible for any inaccurateness of it. Any opinion, comment, financial analysis, market forecast or any other information in
this regard is not binding for Baader Bank AG, which is not deemed responsible for the opinions or ideas exposed. Likewise, any opinion hereby exposed
could change without prior notice. The investor must take into account that financial markets are fluctuant and thus, are subject to variations. The value
of the investment may fall as well as rise and the investor could not get back the original investment. Exchange rate movements may increase or
decrease the investment value and change, direct or indirectly, the performance of the financial products. Past performances are not guarantee of future
performances. Prior to make any operation with financial instruments, it is highly advisable to obtain further information, make the relevant comparisons
and request professional advisory in this regard.
Notice to Investors in Sweden
The information contained herein shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of the securities
referred to herein and it is not a prospectus under Swedish law and it is not subject to any registration or approval requirements in Sweden. Accordingly,
the information has not been, nor will it be, registered or approved by Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Sw. Finansinspektionen) under the
Swedish Financial Instruments Trading Act (1991:980), nor any other Swedish Act. No securities will be offered or sold to any investor in Sweden except
in circumstances that will not result in a requirement to prepare a prospectus in accordance with the Swedish Financial Instruments Trading Act (1991:980).
Notice to Investors in Switzerland
This document is for your personal information only and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment in the company described
or other specific product nor does it constitute a prospectus in the sense of art. 652a of the Swiss Federal Code of Obligations (CO), of art. 1156 CO or a
simplified prospectus in the sense of art. 5 para. 2 of the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes (CISA). It cannot be excluded that Baader
Bank AG or one of its subsidiaries, one of their products or any of their employees have a long or short position or deal as principal or agent in any of the
securities issued by or linked to this company or provide advisory or other services to it.
Opinions expressed herein may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other business areas of Baader Bank AG or of any of its subsidiaries as a
result of using different assumptions.

17 July 2013 page 19

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

Notice to Investors in the United Kingdom

This communication is directed to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within
Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant
persons). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to
which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
Notice to Investors in the United States
Baader Bank AG is the issuer of this report. The report is distributed in the US, as non-affiliate research, by Helvea Inc. Baader Bank AG is not a member
of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), and therefore Baader Bank AG, its employees and the research analyst who prepared this report
are not subject to FINRA Rule 2711. Rule 2711 applies only to Helvea Inc.
As a member of FINRA and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), Helvea Inc. accepts responsibility under applicable laws for the
content of this report when it distributes the report in the United States. Additional information on this report is available upon request.
This report is circulated on a distribution only basis, and is not done under an arrangement pursuant to Rule 15a-6 (a) (3) of the Exchange Act of 1934, as
amended (the Exchange Act). Therefore Baader Bank AG is not authorized to solicit and effect transactions with U.S. investors relating to this research.
Orders may be given directly to Helvea Inc. only, and these trades will be executed in accordance with Helvea Incs Terms of Business using Helvea
Incs existing set-up. The research is not provided pursuant to a soft-dollar arrangement with the U.S. Investor and Baader Bank AG.
Apart from the conflicts mentioned in the earlier section of this document, Helvea Inc. and Baader Bank AG are not aware of any other actual or material
conflicts of interest at the time of distribution of the research report.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a general solicitation of an offer to buy, an offer to sell or a public offering of the
securities described herein in the United States. Each U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is
such a major U.S. institutional investor or registered broker-dealer or bank and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities.
A major U.S. institutional investor is a person that is (a) a U.S. institutional investor (defined below) that has, or has under management, total assets in
excess of USD 100mn; provided, however, that for purposes of determining the total assets of an investment company under this rule, the investment
company may include the assets of any family of investment companies of which it is a part; or (b) an investment adviser registered with the SEC that
has total assets under management in excess of USD 100mn.
A U.S. institutional investor is a person that is (a) an investment company registered with the SEC; (b) a bank, savings and loan association, insurance
company, business development company, small business investment company, employee benefit plan, private business development company, or trust
defined in Regulation D under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the Securities Act); or (c) an organization described in Section 501(c)(3) of the U.S.
Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as defined in Regulation D.
Qualified Institutional Buyer means any of the following entities that in the aggregate owns and invests on a discretionary basis at least USD 100mn in
securities of issuers that are not affiliated with the entity; (a) an insurance company as defined in Section 2(13) of the Securities Act; (b) an investment
company registered under the Investment Company Act; (c) any small business investment company licensed by the U.S. Small Business Administration
under the Small Business Investment Act; (d) any plan established and maintained for the benefit of its employees; (e) any employee benefit plan within
the meaning of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act; (f) any trust fund whose trustee is a bank or trust company and whose participants are
exclusively plans of the types identified in paragraph (d) or (e) herein; (g) any business development company as defined in Section 202(a)(22) of the
Investment Advisers Act; (h) any organization described in Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code; and (i) any investment adviser registered
under the Investment Advisers Act.
The securities referred to in this report are not registered under the Securities Act, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to
U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuer of such securities may be limited and such issuer may not be subject
to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers.

page 20 17 July 2013

Equity Research

COMPANY UPDATE
Aurubis

CONTACTS

Volker Bosse, CEFA Andre Remke, CFA Gerhard Schwarz, CEFA

Co-Head Equity Research Co-Head Equity Research Head of Equity Strategy
+49 89 5150 1815 +49 89 5150 1816 +49 89 5150 1812
volker.bosse@baaderbank.de andre.remke@baaderbank.de gerhard.schwarz@baaderbank.de

EQUITY RESEARCH
Automobiles & Parts Chemicals Home and Personal Care Industrials
Klaus Breitenbach Norbert Barth Christian Weiz Guenther Hollfelder, CFA
+49 69 1388 1961 +49 69 1388 1951 +49 89 5150 1808 +49 89 5150 1806
klaus.breitenbach@baaderbank.de norbert.barth@baaderbank.de christian.weiz@baaderbank.de guenther.hollfelder@baaderbank.de

Industrials (Austria) Machinery Real Estate Real Estate (Austria)

Christine Reitsamer, CFA Peter Rothenaicher Andre Remke, CFA Christine Reitsamer, CFA
+49 89 5150 1811 +49 89 5150 1817 +49 89 5150 1816 +49 89 5150 1811
christine.reitsamer@baaderbank.de peter.rothenaicher@baaderbank.de andre.remke@baaderbank.de christine.reitsamer@baaderbank.de

Retail and Consumer Software & IT Services Steel & Metals Technology Hardware
Volker Bosse, CEFA Knut Woller, CEFA Christian Obst, CEFA Guenther Hollfelder, CFA
+49 89 5150 1815 +49 89 5150 1807 +49 89 5150 1805 +49 89 5150 1806
volker.bosse@baaderbank.de knut.woller@baaderbank.de christian.obst@baaderbank.de guenther.hollfelder@baaderbank.de

Small & Mid Caps

Christian Weiz
+49 89 5150 1808
christian.weiz@baaderbank.de

EQUITY STRATEGY
Gerhard Schwarz, CEFA Heinz Imbacher
+49 89 5150 1812 +49 89 5150 1018
gerhard.schwarz@baaderbank.de heinz.imbacher@baaderbank.de

EQUITY SALES DERIVATIVES SALES EQUITY SALES TRADING

+49 89 5150 1850 +49 89 5150 1845 +49 89 5150 1870

PUBLICATION ADDRESS

Baader Bank AG
Equity Research
Weihenstephaner Strasse 4
85716 Unterschleissheim, Germany

Phone: +49 89 5150 1810

E-Mail: equityresearch@baaderbank.de

17 July 2013 page 21