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The Poisson probability distribution provides a

The probability of an occurrence of an
good model for the probability distribution of
the number of rare events that occur
event is constant for all subintervals:
randomly in time, distance, or space.
independent events;
You are counting the number times a
particular event occurs in a unit; and
As the unit gets smaller, the probability
that two or more events will occur in that
unit approaches zero.

The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probability distribution if

it has the probability function:
x Themean and variance of the Poisson
e probability distribution are:
P( x) , for x 0, 1,2,...
x!
where
P(x) = the probability of x successes over a given period of
x E( X ) and x2 E[( X ) 2 ]
time or space, given
= the expected number of successes per time or space
unit; > 0
e = 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)

Example:Ex The probabilities of 0 up to 2 arrivals can

Arrivals at a bus-stop follow a be calculated directly from the formula
Poisson distribution with an
average of 4.5 every quarter of e x
an hour. p( x ) with =4.5
x!
Calculate the probability of
fewer than 3 arrivals in a quarter
e 4.5 4.50
of an hour. p(0) So p(0) = 0.01111
0!

1

Similarly p(1)=0.04999 and
p(2)=0.11248
So the probability of fewer than 3
arrivals is 0.01111+ 0.04999 + 0.11248
=0.17358
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Example 2:
Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were examined for surface flaws.
The frequency of the number of sheets with a given number of
flaws per sheet was as follows:
Number of flaws Frequency
0 4
1 3
2 5
3 2
4 4
5 1
6 1
What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen at random which
contains 3 or more surface flaws?
Exercise 1:
A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life
insurance policies per week. Use Poisson's law to
calculate the probability that in a given week he will
sell
a) Some policies
b) 2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.
c) Assuming that there are 5 working days per week,
what is the probability that in a given day he will sell
one policy?
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Exercise 2:

If electricity power failures occur according to a

Poisson distribution with an average of 3 failures
every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that
there will not be more than one failure during a
particular week.

Exercise 3:
Vehicles pass through a junction on a busy road at an
average rate of 300 per hour.
a) Find the probability that none passes in a given
minute.
b) What is the expected number passing in two
minutes?
c) Find the probability that this expected number
actually pass through in a given two-minute
period.

Exercise 4:
A company makes electric motors. The probability
an electric motor is defective is 0.01. What is the
probability that a sample of 300 electric motors
will contain exactly 5 defective motors?

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