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Thecurrentrecessionisthemostbrutaleconomicdownturninalifetime.Oneindustrywhere
theconsequencesoftherecessionarefeltparticularlyhardisthefastmovingconsumergoods
(FMCG)industry.Inthepast,thisindustrywasdominatedbysuchwellknownmanufacturer
brandsasArieldetergent,Nescafcoffee,Philadelphiacreamcheese,Floramargarine,and
Pampersnappies.However,inrecentdecades,socalledprivatelabelsorstorebrandsbrands
ownedbyretailgiantssuchasWalMart,Tesco,CarrefourandAldihavemadehugeinroads,
especiallyinwesternEuropeandtheUS.Todaytheycontrol20percentoftheUSFMCG
market,35percentinGermany,andmorethan40percentintheUKMuchofthelossof
marketshareofmanufacturerbrandsisinitiatedineconomicdownturns.Facedwitha
pressingneedtosavemoney,shoppersturnto(cheaper)storebrands.Theydiscoverthatthe
qualityisgoodand,consequently,manystickwiththebrandwhentheeconomyimproves
again.
Ourresearch,spanningseveraldecadesofpurchasingbehaviourandmultiplerecessionsin
countriesacrosstheglobe,showsthatthegrowthofprivatelabelsinrecessionsleaves
permanentscarsonmanufacturerbrands.Willitbeanydifferentthistime?Itispossible,but
thiswilldependonhowbrandmanagersrespondtothecurrentdownturn.Brandsthattakea
proactivestanceandtreattherecessionasanopportunityarelikelytocomeoutofthe
recessionstrongerthanbefore.Inthisarticle,wedescribewhattheyshoulddo.Twoissues
drivetheoutcomeofhowbrandsmakeitthroughtherecession:theirequityattheonsetofthe
recessionandinvestmentsinthebrandduringtherecession.
Brandequity
Howstrongisyourbrand?Isitabrandwithmanyloyalbuyersthatpeopleknowandtrustand
arewillingtopayapricepremiumfor?Orisitaweakbrand,commandinglittleloyaltyand
esteem?Insum,isyourbrandequityhighorlow?Strongbrandsentertherecessioninamuch
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morefavourablepositionthanweakbrands.Theyareontheshelvesofmoreretailers,have
moreshelfspaceandhavealargerandmorecommittedcustomerbase.Marketingbudgetsfor
strongerbrandsalsotendtobehigher.
Inrecessions,retailersacrosstheworlddevotemoreshelfspacetotheirownbrands(especially
sincetheyalsocommandahighermargin).Forexample,tocatertotheincreasedprice
sensitivityofUKconsumersinthewakeoftheeconomicdownturn,Tescolaunchedon
September172008,itsfourthlineofprivatelabels,calledDiscountBrandsatTesco.Salesof
Tescosdiscountandvaluerangesareup65percentonlastyear,andoneinfourshoppersnow
purchasestheseranges.Thisputsapressureonthenumberofnationalbrandstheretailerstill
carries.Retailersarelesslikelytokillbrandswithastrongandloyalcustomerbase.
Highequitybrandsarealsobetterinsulatedagainsttheswitchingtoprivatelabelsbehaviour
thatisubiquitousinrecessions,ifonlybecauseloyalcustomersincurhigherswitchingcosts
whenbuyingnonpreferreditems.Highequitybrandsareknowntosufferless,andtorecover
faster,followingaproductharmcrisis.Thesameholdstruewhenfacedwithaneconomic
crisis.
Brandinvestmentsinrecessions
Inrecessions,shoppershaveanaturaltendencytoswitchtoprivatelabelsinordertosave
money.Thelogicalthingforbrandstodoistocounterthistendencybyeitherloweringtheir
ownprice,orbyofferingsufficientnonpricereasonstoconsumerstobuytheirbrand.Our
research,spanningmorethantwodecadesofactualmarketingbehaviour,revealsthatmost
brandsdoexactlytheopposite.First,brandscancounterthepriceadvantageofprivatelabels
byrampinguptheirownpricepromotions(temporarypricereductions).Consumersaremore
pricesensitiveinrecessions,soofferingmorepricepromotionsmakesalotofsense.
Surprisingly,pricepromotionactivityformostbrandsactuallydecreasesinrecessionarytimes.
Second,thebrandcancounterthepriceadvantageofprivatelabelsbyincreasingits
investmentsinadvertisingornewproductactivity.Bothprovidenonpricereasonstopurchase
themanufacturerbrandimageandimprovedfunctionalperformance,respectively.However,
ourresearchshowsthatadvertisingandinnovationactivitydecreasesinrecessions.
Marketingresearchisalsooneofthefirstvictimsinarecession.Theseoutlaysare
discretionary,andofferaneasywaytoreducecosts.Unfortunately,inbadeconomictimes,itis
moredifficulttoconvinceconsumerstobuyyourhigherpricedbrand.Optimalmatchingof
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yourbrandwithconsumerneedsisevenmorenecessaryindifficulttimes,butevidenceshows
thatbrandmanufacturersprefertooperatewithoutthiscrucialguidanceduringrecessions.
Whydocompaniesmanagebrandsinsuchacounterproductiveway?Afterall,theirbrandsare
theirmostvaluableassets.Cuttingbackinrecessionsonpricepromotions,innovationactivity
andadvertisingsavesmoneyintheshortterm,butunderminesthelongtermequityofbrands.
Webelievethatitisduetoatoxiccombinationofshorttermperspectivethatcharacterisesthe
decisionmakingofmanymanagersandthetremendouspressureonthebottomlinein
recessionarytimes.Theeasiestwayoutistocutcosts,andsincepricepromotions,advertising,
newproductintroductionsandmarketingresearcharelargelydiscretionarycosts,theycan
easilybecutintheshortterm.
However,thisbehaviourweakenstheequityofbrandsandnegativelyimpactsonshareholder
value.Westudiedthestockpriceperformanceof26globalcompaniesovera25yearperiod
andfoundthatannualgrowthinshareholdervalueforcompaniesthatdonottietheir
advertisinginvestmentstothebusinesscycleis1.3percenthighercomparedwithcompanies
thatdolettheiradvertisinginvestmentsdependonthebusinesscycle.Thistranslatesinto
billionsofdollarsofshareholdervaluethataredestroyedannuallybyadoptingthiserroneous
practice.
Insum,companiesoftendothewrongthingbyreducingmarketingexpendituredespite
compellingevidencethatitpaystonotfollowthegeneraltrendofcuttingbackduringa
recession.Putdifferently,oneshouldstarttotreatthosemarketingexpensesasstrategic
investments,ratherthanasshortruncoststhatcaneasilybecutwhenthegoinggetstough.
Notethatgoingagainstthetrendcanbeinabsoluteterms(strongform)orinrelativeterms
(weakform).Indeed,byholdingbrandexpendituresatprerecessionarylevels,whileother
brandsspendless,onemaystillincreaseonesshareoftotalmarketcommunications.
Fourscenarios
Bycombiningtwodimensionsofbrandequityattheonsetoftherecessionandbrand
investmentsintherecession,wegetfourscenarios.
Brandinvestments
Reductioninbrand Noreduction/increaseinbrand
investments investments
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Brand High
(1) (2)
equity
Highlosspotential Recessionisopportunity
Low
(3) (4)
Survivalgame Doubleornothing
Brandsincell(1)runthedistinctdangerthattheirequitywillbesignificantlyerodedinthe
currentrecession.Theystartfromafavourableposition,buttheirbehaviourwillleadtoa
significantweakeningoftheirpositionvisvisprivatelabelsandthebrandsincell(2).
Managerialdecisionmakingforthesebrandsisoverlycautiousandfocusedontheshortterm.
Thesebrandsshouldemphasiseactivitiesthatkeeptheircustomerssatisfied(and,hence,
retainthem),ratherthanfocusoncostsavingactivities.Indeed,customerslostduringthe
recessionmaynevercomeback,evenwhentheeconomysoutlookimprovesagain.
Forbrandsincell(2),therecessionisanopportunitytopullaheadoftheirshortsighted
competitorsincell(1).Theirproactivebehaviourwillstrengthentheir(relative)position,not
onlyintherecessionperiod,butalsoinsubsequentyears.Brandsincell(3)areintheworst
possiblesituation:theystartweak,andtheirmanagementmakesthewrongdecisions.Theyare
primecandidatestobedelistedbyretailerswhoarepushingtheirprivatelabelsinrecessions
andmanyofthemwill.Theirbrandequitywilldecline,andmanywillnotevensurvivethe
recession.
Thebrandsincell(4)havetheopportunityofalifetimetofightback.Theystartinan
unfavourablepositiontheirequityislowand,innormaltimes,itwouldtaketremendous
marketinginvestmentstobreakthroughthecompetitiveclutter.However,giventhatmost
brandscutbackinrecessions(and,hence,belongtocells(1)and(3),brandsincell(4)areable
toincreasetheirshareoftotalmarketcommunicationinthecategorydramaticallyby
maintainingorevenbetterincreasingtheirmarketinginvestments.Butitisariskystrategy
ifitispoorlyexecuted,theanticipatedincreaseinsalesandprofitswillnotmaterialiseand
thebrandmaybediscontinued.
Conclusion
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Justasslumpsinthestockmarketoffergreatopportunitiesforcourageousinvestors,slumpsin
therealeconomyoffergreatopportunitiestocourageousmanagers.Allevidenceindicatesthat
aproactivestrategyisassociatedwithincreasedbrandsuccessandshareholdervalue.Ifyou
waittillthegoodtimescomeback,youignoretheadvicegivenbythelegendaryicehockey
playerWayneGretzky:Iskatetowherethepuckisgoingtobe,nottowhereithasbeen.
Recessionsarenotforthefaintheartedbutwhosaidthatfairweathermakesgreatmanagers?
Authors:JanBenedictE.M.Steenkamp(jbs@unc.edu(mailto:jbs@unc.edu))isC.Knox
MasseyDistinguishedProfessorofMarketingandMarketingAreaChair,UniversityofNorth
Carolina,ChapelHill,U.S.A.&ExecutiveDirectorofAiMark,andauthor(withN.Kumar)of
thebookPrivateLabelStrategy:HowtoMeettheStoreBrandChallenge.MarnikG.Dekimpe
(m.g.dekimpe@uvt.nl(mailto:m.g.dekimpe@uvt.nl))isResearchProfessorofMarketing,
TilburgUniversity,theNetherlandsandProfessorofMarketing,CatholicUniversityLeuven,
Belgium
Printasinglecopyofthisarticleforpersonaluse.Contactusifyouwishtoprintmoreto
distributetoothers.TheFinancialTimesLtd.
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