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japantimes.co.jp /news/2017/01/17/business/futurepromisepitfallsaitechnologyadvances/
ByShusukeMurai
OnaSundayafternoonin2035,amaninTokyoisconsultingarobotastowhatheshouldeatfordinner.
ItseemsthatyouhaveaheavyfeelinginyourstomachtodayIsuggestfishandvegetables,therobotsaid,basedonthemanshealthdataretrievedautomatically
fromadeviceheiswearing.Iwouldsuggestorderingacabbagefromthisfarm,asitmatchesyourpreferenceforpesticideresiduelimits.
Okay,themansays.Soonafterthecabbagewasdeliveredfromthefarmbydrone,therobotinstalledarecipedatafiletoacookingmachinetopreparedinnerforthe
man.
ThisisasceneofdailylifethatthegovernmentenvisagesasthefutureofJapanssupersmartsociety,whereallindividualscanreceivethenecessaryservicesthey
needregardlessofdifferencesinage,gender,regionandlanguage.
Japanhaslongbeengearingupfordevelopinginformationtechnologyandroboticspoweredbyartificialintelligence(AI).
Lastyear,thegovernmentlaunchedtheFifthBasicPlanforScienceandTechnology,which,bypromotingthedevelopmentofadvancedtechnologiessuchasthe
InternetofThings(IoT),bigdataandAI,aimstosetthefoundationforasmartsocietybyMarch2021.
TokyobelievestechnologicaladvancementisamuchneededboostforindustriesinJapan,wherethedwindlingworkforcecausedbythefallingbirthrateandanaging
populationhasbeenanimminentthreat.
IntheJapanRevitalizationStrategy2016,thegovernmentsaiditaimstocoverthelaborshortagebyimprovingtheproductivityoftheindustrialworldthroughthe
paradigmshiftbroughtbyadvancedtechnologieslikeAIandIoT.
Indeed,theexpectationishighontheriseofadvancedAI,whichhasachievedsomenotablemilestonesin2016.
InMarch,theAIbasedcomputerprogramAlphaGo,developedbyGooglesubsidiaryDeepMind,stunnedtheworldwhenitdefeatedSouthKoreangograndmasterLee
Sedolinafivegamematchoftheancientboardgamethatrequiresstrongintuitionandcreativethinking.
AndinAugust,itwaslearnedthatWatson,IBMsartificialintelligenceplatform,helpeddoctorsrapidlydiagnoseararetypeofleukemiathatconventionaltestshadfailed
todetectpossiblythefirstcaseinJapanthatanAIpoweredprogramcontributedtosavingapatientslife.
ThepresenthypeoverAI,whichbeganearlythisdecade,canbedescribedasthethethirdAIboom,accordingtoYutakaMatsuo,projectassociateprofessoratthe
UniversityofTokyo.
ThecurrentinnovationsurroundingAIislargelydrivenbytherapidgrowthinamethodofmachinelearningcalleddeeplearning,Matsuo,JapansleadingAIexpert,said
duringaninterviewwithTheJapanTimeslastyear.
Thankstodeeplearningtechnology,whichisinspiredbyhowthehumanbrainlearnsthings,artificialintelligencehasbecomeabletoautomaticallyextractpatternsfrom
vastamountsofimagedataandclassifythemwithoutbeinginstructedbyhumanbeings.
Thechangeshappeningarounddeeplearningarerevolutionary,Matsuosaid.
Letssaytherewasapersonwithabraindisease.Thehealthyeyessendvisualinformationtothebrain,butitcannotrecognizewhatitsseeing.Thathasbeenthe
conventionalcomputer,Matsuosaid.
Butdeeplearningtechnologyprovidedcomputerswithimagerecognitionabilitythatevensurpassesthatpossessedbyhumans,hesaid,addingthatthetechnologycan,
forexample,beusedtodetectpossibleincidentswhenimplementedinsecuritycameraslikeidentifyingdrunkendriversorpeopleinclinedtostartfightsinthestreet.
AlthoughtechgiantsintheWesthaveledthecompetitionoverinformationtechnology,MatsuobelievesJapancancatchupinthedevelopmentofdeeplearning
becausetheinnovationhappeningnowisaroundimageprocessingtechnology,anareawhereJapanleadstheworld.
Indeeplearning,Japanstillhasagreatchancetocompete,andanexcellentopportunitytogaingreatbenefitoutofit,hesaid.
Meanwhile,somecriticsfearthatsmarterAIandroboticsmayputpeopleoutofwork.
AccordingtoareportpublishedjointlyinDecember2015byprivatethinktankNomuraResearchInstituteandOxfordUniversity,researcherspredictedthatadvanced
robotsandAIwouldreplaceabout49percentofJapansworkforcewithin10to20years.
Thereportfurtherexplainedthatjobsthatdidntinvolvespecialknowledgeorskillincludingreceptionists,taxidrivers,deliveryworkersandsecurityguardswould
betakenoverbymachine,whilethosethatrequirecreativityandtheabilitytounderstandotherslikeeconomists,videogamecreators,teachersandwriterswould
remaininhumanhands.
Someexperts,includingNorikoArai,amathematicianattheNationalInstituteofInformatics,believesthechillingfuturepredictedinthereportisnotfaroffthemark.
AfterfiveyearsofdevelopingAIthataimstopasstheentranceexamoftheprestigiousUniversityofTokyo,orTodai,AraiconcludedthatJapanneedstoimprove
studentsreadingcomprehensionanareawhereAIhasyettocatchupbeforeimprovingAI.
Theworstcasescenariois,from2021,whenthenumberofpeopleaged22orbelowwilldropoffsignificantly,theworldwillbeshortofworkers,butthenumberof
unemployedwillincreaseaswell,AraisaidduringaninterviewwithTheJapanTimes.
AsaresultofhermuchnotedTodaiRobotProject,theultimateaimofwhichwastogaugeAIspossibilitiesandlimits,whilepredictingthefutureofanAIenhanced
society,AraifoundthatAIisgoodatansweringfactbasedquestionsbetterthanmosttesttakersbecauseitcantakeadvantageofthevastinformationstoredinits
databasetofindanswers.
However,AIfailedtocomeupwithcorrectanswersrequiringcommonknowledgenotoutlinedinthequestion,becauseitmerelyoutputmostlikelyanswersafter
interpretingaquestionbyidentifyingkeywordsandphrases.Therefore,theAIcannotthinkoutsidetheboxorhavethekindofdeepunderstandinghumanshaveabout
themeaningofaquestion.
Despitethelimitationsinmachinescapabilities,Araipaintsableakpictureofthefuturebecauseshefoundoutthatmanystudentslackabilitytothinkcreativelythe
thingthatgivesthemanedgeovermachines.
ThatiswhyshelastyeardecidedtopauseherAIsquesttoentertheUniversityofTokyo,andinsteadfocusonimprovingstudentsscoresonareadingskilltest,a
multiplechoicetestdevelopedbytheprojectteamtotesttheirabilitytovisualizeanimagefromawrittensentenceessentiallytothinkforthemselvessothatthey
cansurvivetheAIsaturatedsociety.
Thekeythingwouldbewhetherpeopleareabletoexploitmachinestosupplementtheirabilities,ratherthanfollowwhatmachinestellthemtodo,Araisaid.
AraisviewonhowtosurviveanAIpoweredsocietyisalsosharedbyMatsuo,whobelievestheessenceofthechangeinthesocietyisnotaboutstealinghumanjobs,
butaboutredefiningtaskstoallowpeopletofocusonmorecreative,communicativethingsratherthantherepetitive,meniallaborthatcomputersarebetterat
performing.
Theimportantthingistocontinueupdatingtheirskillstokeepupwithchangesintheirtasksratherthantobesatisfiedwithskillsandknowledgetheyacquiredinthefirst
20yearsoftheirlives,hesaid.
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