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AfutureofpromiseandpitfallsasAItechnologyadvances

japantimes.co.jp /news/2017/01/17/business/futurepromisepitfallsaitechnologyadvances/
ByShusukeMurai
OnaSundayafternoonin2035,amaninTokyoisconsultingarobotastowhatheshouldeatfordinner.

ItseemsthatyouhaveaheavyfeelinginyourstomachtodayIsuggestfishandvegetables,therobotsaid,basedonthemanshealthdataretrievedautomatically
fromadeviceheiswearing.Iwouldsuggestorderingacabbagefromthisfarm,asitmatchesyourpreferenceforpesticideresiduelimits.

Okay,themansays.Soonafterthecabbagewasdeliveredfromthefarmbydrone,therobotinstalledarecipedatafiletoacookingmachinetopreparedinnerforthe
man.

ThisisasceneofdailylifethatthegovernmentenvisagesasthefutureofJapanssupersmartsociety,whereallindividualscanreceivethenecessaryservicesthey
needregardlessofdifferencesinage,gender,regionandlanguage.

Japanhaslongbeengearingupfordevelopinginformationtechnologyandroboticspoweredbyartificialintelligence(AI).

Lastyear,thegovernmentlaunchedtheFifthBasicPlanforScienceandTechnology,which,bypromotingthedevelopmentofadvancedtechnologiessuchasthe
InternetofThings(IoT),bigdataandAI,aimstosetthefoundationforasmartsocietybyMarch2021.

TokyobelievestechnologicaladvancementisamuchneededboostforindustriesinJapan,wherethedwindlingworkforcecausedbythefallingbirthrateandanaging
populationhasbeenanimminentthreat.

IntheJapanRevitalizationStrategy2016,thegovernmentsaiditaimstocoverthelaborshortagebyimprovingtheproductivityoftheindustrialworldthroughthe
paradigmshiftbroughtbyadvancedtechnologieslikeAIandIoT.

Indeed,theexpectationishighontheriseofadvancedAI,whichhasachievedsomenotablemilestonesin2016.

InMarch,theAIbasedcomputerprogramAlphaGo,developedbyGooglesubsidiaryDeepMind,stunnedtheworldwhenitdefeatedSouthKoreangograndmasterLee
Sedolinafivegamematchoftheancientboardgamethatrequiresstrongintuitionandcreativethinking.

AndinAugust,itwaslearnedthatWatson,IBMsartificialintelligenceplatform,helpeddoctorsrapidlydiagnoseararetypeofleukemiathatconventionaltestshadfailed
todetectpossiblythefirstcaseinJapanthatanAIpoweredprogramcontributedtosavingapatientslife.

ThepresenthypeoverAI,whichbeganearlythisdecade,canbedescribedasthethethirdAIboom,accordingtoYutakaMatsuo,projectassociateprofessoratthe
UniversityofTokyo.

ThecurrentinnovationsurroundingAIislargelydrivenbytherapidgrowthinamethodofmachinelearningcalleddeeplearning,Matsuo,JapansleadingAIexpert,said
duringaninterviewwithTheJapanTimeslastyear.
Thankstodeeplearningtechnology,whichisinspiredbyhowthehumanbrainlearnsthings,artificialintelligencehasbecomeabletoautomaticallyextractpatternsfrom
vastamountsofimagedataandclassifythemwithoutbeinginstructedbyhumanbeings.

Thechangeshappeningarounddeeplearningarerevolutionary,Matsuosaid.

Letssaytherewasapersonwithabraindisease.Thehealthyeyessendvisualinformationtothebrain,butitcannotrecognizewhatitsseeing.Thathasbeenthe
conventionalcomputer,Matsuosaid.

Butdeeplearningtechnologyprovidedcomputerswithimagerecognitionabilitythatevensurpassesthatpossessedbyhumans,hesaid,addingthatthetechnologycan,
forexample,beusedtodetectpossibleincidentswhenimplementedinsecuritycameraslikeidentifyingdrunkendriversorpeopleinclinedtostartfightsinthestreet.

AlthoughtechgiantsintheWesthaveledthecompetitionoverinformationtechnology,MatsuobelievesJapancancatchupinthedevelopmentofdeeplearning
becausetheinnovationhappeningnowisaroundimageprocessingtechnology,anareawhereJapanleadstheworld.

Indeeplearning,Japanstillhasagreatchancetocompete,andanexcellentopportunitytogaingreatbenefitoutofit,hesaid.

Meanwhile,somecriticsfearthatsmarterAIandroboticsmayputpeopleoutofwork.

AccordingtoareportpublishedjointlyinDecember2015byprivatethinktankNomuraResearchInstituteandOxfordUniversity,researcherspredictedthatadvanced
robotsandAIwouldreplaceabout49percentofJapansworkforcewithin10to20years.

Thereportfurtherexplainedthatjobsthatdidntinvolvespecialknowledgeorskillincludingreceptionists,taxidrivers,deliveryworkersandsecurityguardswould
betakenoverbymachine,whilethosethatrequirecreativityandtheabilitytounderstandotherslikeeconomists,videogamecreators,teachersandwriterswould
remaininhumanhands.

Someexperts,includingNorikoArai,amathematicianattheNationalInstituteofInformatics,believesthechillingfuturepredictedinthereportisnotfaroffthemark.

AfterfiveyearsofdevelopingAIthataimstopasstheentranceexamoftheprestigiousUniversityofTokyo,orTodai,AraiconcludedthatJapanneedstoimprove
studentsreadingcomprehensionanareawhereAIhasyettocatchupbeforeimprovingAI.

Theworstcasescenariois,from2021,whenthenumberofpeopleaged22orbelowwilldropoffsignificantly,theworldwillbeshortofworkers,butthenumberof
unemployedwillincreaseaswell,AraisaidduringaninterviewwithTheJapanTimes.

AsaresultofhermuchnotedTodaiRobotProject,theultimateaimofwhichwastogaugeAIspossibilitiesandlimits,whilepredictingthefutureofanAIenhanced
society,AraifoundthatAIisgoodatansweringfactbasedquestionsbetterthanmosttesttakersbecauseitcantakeadvantageofthevastinformationstoredinits
databasetofindanswers.

However,AIfailedtocomeupwithcorrectanswersrequiringcommonknowledgenotoutlinedinthequestion,becauseitmerelyoutputmostlikelyanswersafter
interpretingaquestionbyidentifyingkeywordsandphrases.Therefore,theAIcannotthinkoutsidetheboxorhavethekindofdeepunderstandinghumanshaveabout
themeaningofaquestion.
Despitethelimitationsinmachinescapabilities,Araipaintsableakpictureofthefuturebecauseshefoundoutthatmanystudentslackabilitytothinkcreativelythe
thingthatgivesthemanedgeovermachines.

ThatiswhyshelastyeardecidedtopauseherAIsquesttoentertheUniversityofTokyo,andinsteadfocusonimprovingstudentsscoresonareadingskilltest,a
multiplechoicetestdevelopedbytheprojectteamtotesttheirabilitytovisualizeanimagefromawrittensentenceessentiallytothinkforthemselvessothatthey
cansurvivetheAIsaturatedsociety.

Thekeythingwouldbewhetherpeopleareabletoexploitmachinestosupplementtheirabilities,ratherthanfollowwhatmachinestellthemtodo,Araisaid.

AraisviewonhowtosurviveanAIpoweredsocietyisalsosharedbyMatsuo,whobelievestheessenceofthechangeinthesocietyisnotaboutstealinghumanjobs,
butaboutredefiningtaskstoallowpeopletofocusonmorecreative,communicativethingsratherthantherepetitive,meniallaborthatcomputersarebetterat
performing.

Theimportantthingistocontinueupdatingtheirskillstokeepupwithchangesintheirtasksratherthantobesatisfiedwithskillsandknowledgetheyacquiredinthefirst
20yearsoftheirlives,hesaid.

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