April 5, 2017

TO: Antonio for California

FR: Diane Feldman

Chad Arthur

RE: March 2017 Poll

____________________________________________________________________

Antonio Villaraigosa begins in a three-way top tier of candidates for Governor of

California. Lieutenant Governor and former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom leads with 26
percent support, a similar level of support as in public polling. Republican John Cox garners 22
percent support as the sole Republican candidate in a 32 percent registered Republican
electorate. Villaraigosa has 20 percent support, just slightly less than Cox and Newsom. Other
candidates and prospective candidates have support in the single digits.

The result differs from some recent public polling for three reasons. First, Villaraigosa
was the only Latino candidate in this match-up and leads formidably among Latino voters with
42 percent support to 19 percent for second-place Newsom.

Second, the poll includes a sample of Latino voters who have not voted in prior
primaries, but voted in recent general elections. We expect a significant percentage of these
voters to join the 2018 primary electorate. Overall, Latinos make up 23% of our sample.

Finally, and most importantly, a substantial portion of the California electorate is

mobilized in opposition to Donald Trump and the policies he is promulgating in Washington
while the oft-referenced The Field poll was conducted prior to the November election. The
Trump election has energized Democrats and shifted the dialogue.

Arithmetic dictates that exceeding 33 percent of the vote guarantees a run-off position in
the General Election. The contest is fluid as voters do not know any of the candidates well.
Villaraigosa begins in a very competitive position in the current field and with a clear path to a
run-off position.

All of the candidates have room for growth in voters familiarity with them. Newsom is
best known (58 percent express an opinion of him), but not by very much. John Chiang has the
lowest profile of the declared candidates with only 21 percent who express an opinion of him.

A majority (52 percent) of voters know Villaraigosa well enough to express an opinion of
him, and those who know him regard him favorably. Sixty-two (62) percent of Latinos know
Villaraigosa well enough to rate him, with 45 percent who rate him favorably and only 17
percent who rate him unfavorably.

1990 M Street NW, Suite 510, Washington DC 20036

Ph: 202.547.3000 | www.thefeldmangroup.com
Memo Antonio for California March Poll Page 2
The Feldman Group, Inc.

The survey shows California voters want a Governor who will address their economic
problems and build the middle class. In choosing among those who say they will do so, however,
voters are also looking for someone with compassion and a genuine commitment to social
justice. They want experience and effectiveness, but they also want an antidote to Trump and to
his policies that violate their rights and values.

Villaraigosa has the capacity to articulate the compassion, commitment and effective
experience voters are looking for. They will reject a partisan politician they do not much like
either party right now but they will gravitate toward authentic commitment to their values.
Villaraigosas history in social justice movements including the ACLU will resonate with
voters as they become more familiar with him.